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Posted by BradyNet ( Thursday, July 8, '04 )
 
*NEW* Stay on top of important market events with the IdeaGlobal/BradyNet Economic Calendar

 GLOBAL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
*Bailiffs start work against Yukos 07-08-04 (BBC) Russian court bailiffs have started work to seize assets of the Yukos oil firm, which owes $3.4bn in unpaid tax.
*IMF Recognizes Iraq, Clears Lending Path 07-08-04 (Yahoo) Clearing the route for future loans to Iraq (news - web sites), the International Monetary Fund (news - web sites) said on Wednesday it had formally recognized the battered nation's new interim government.
*Dollar Declines on Weaker Rate Outlook 07-08-04 (Yahoo) The dollar hovered near a three-month low against the euro on Thursday, as investors continued to shun the U.S. currency on a firming view that the Federal Reserve could take its time raising interest rates.
*Dollar Drops to 3-Month Lows Against Euro 07-08-04 (Yahoo) The dollar fell to a three-month low against the euro on Wednesday after economic data added to expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve (news - web sites) might not need to be aggressive in future interest rate increases.
*Analysts: Economy Headed for Fast Growth 07-08-04 (Yahoo) The economy appears headed for a banner year despite a springtime spike in energy prices and a recent increase in interest rates.
*Bye-Bye, Bush Boom 07-07-04 (NY Times) When does optimism — the Bush campaign's favorite word these days — become an inability to face facts?
*Economy Set for Best Growth in 20 Years 07-07-04 (Yahoo) The economy appears headed for a banner year despite a springtime spike in energy prices and a recent increase in interest rates.

 OIL PRICES
*Iraqi Oil Exports Rebound After Repairs 07-08-04 (Yahoo) Oil exports from southern Iraq (news - web sites) rebounded to 1.8 million barrels a day Wednesday after repairs were completed on a pipeline damaged by sabotage, an official with the South Oil Co. said.
*Oil Drops as Saudi Confirms OPEC Hike 07-08-04 (Yahoo) Oil prices fell on Wednesday after top producer Saudi Arabia confirmed the OPEC oil cartel would go ahead with plans to increase output and as a Nigerian union agreed to resume oil production after a five-day halt.
*Gasoline Prices Drop Another 2.6 Cents 07-07-04 (Yahoo) Gasoline prices continued their decline, falling to a national average of just over $1.89 a gallon for regular grade last week, the Energy Department reported Tuesday.
*Oil prices surge on supply fears 07-07-04 (Yahoo) Oil prices soared to the highest levels for a month as supply fears were exacerbated by reports of a possible looming strike in Nigeria, Africa's largest exporter of crude oil, traders said.
 
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07-08-04  carib: A club with few members, including Savo nd Leo...cannot be bad to join... at a discount.. :-)

07-08-04  amigo latino: <Primo: (broken by social benefits monetezation)….>

Primo, from what little I read I got the impression that the main complaint is not from monetization per se, but from an almost 50% cut in real benefits implied by the low amount of money to be given. From a distance , it appears cruel, especially in the case of the aged, the sick, and the disabled. Any comments ?


07-08-04  optimist: Primo: thats bloody impressive way to improve support :)) Yesterday i thought the run on the banks would stop after a day of preaching by all level officials.. But today hmm, Even Spermbank has looooong lines...

RF30 90.5625-.6875 btw..


07-08-04  Primo: re: crisis -probably Glut meant that Putin is propping up his falling support index (broken by social benefits monetezation) by crushing up a few big retail banks...or it's just opti's gut feelings. Alfa is falling - okheret' mozhno.

07-08-04  savonarola: gluuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuttttttttttttttt!!!!!!!!!!!!!

<pity this crisis is made by Putin & Co IMHO>

WHAT DO YOU MEAAAAAAAAAAAAANNNNNNNNNNNN!!!!!!!!!!!

We are in desperate need of a crisis!


07-08-04  Glutt: opti, for you in Russian

http://www.utro.ru/peredovica/


07-08-04  Glutt: good to hear from you C-Banker... how is your Doberman, still driving in your RR??? :)))

07-08-04  Glutt: opti, i believe all them... now RusFed are under pressure from 1) Banking crisis 2) Yukos collapse 3) new CLNs... 1) & 2) each separately would be insufficient to move the market but combined they can IMHO... concerning CLNs I know many hedgers bought CLNs at issue ... banking crisis itself would not hit us so much if not Alfa… Alfabank is important in any sense and if assume Alfa can go down the drain then shit will hit the fan… pity this crisis is made by Putin & Co IMHO. And on Yukos, developments go in worst possible direction which few (like me) would expect. However RusFed30$ drop below 91 is not any news… look at recent past prices and volatilities… I think to speak about real sell off we need its price to crash through 89 down under… again IMHO

07-08-04  leo: carib Istill own cydsa and hope prices will rise to 50 or so.....if you bought at 27 it should be a good deal..

07-08-04  optimist: RF bonds. Hit .. bid on rf30 below 91. Either rus banks are selling hard. OR - in anticipation of another 5 bio CLN issue by Bundes, being sold by foreign guys.

Panasonic: for info.. MDM bond mkt now 99.5/100


07-08-04  C-Banker: <carib:I wonder if I joined a club where Leo and Savo are still members...> "I don't want to become a member of a club, which would accept me as a member" (Groucho Marx) :--)))

07-08-04  Alexander: <<<The closing price of $1.30 per share was well above Abraxas' 52-week low of 82 cents last July. But it has gradually been weakening from a dramatic spike to $3.49 in early February after a tout in an MSN.com report on undervalued stocks.>>>

this is a classic P&D operation


07-08-04  leo: If he said he wants a voluntary restructuring it simply means he has to pay and reschedule being current.......if it's really voluntary but then the new issue should have a higher coupon and longer maturity with no haircut....we shall see...

07-08-04  Glutt: leo, savo, carib, wally <Savo the problem is the 2006 issue however the rescheduling will be easy if it will be really voluntary and with no nominal and coupon haircut..... > prudently defaulting on coupon payments would make voluntary restructuring not possible because non payment would constitute an event of default… in this case DR would become in default while pursuing restructuring acceptable to 99% of its debt holders… otherwise to make restructuring truly voluntary DR needs to negotiate rescheduling while continuing servicing old debts… ala-Uruguay I suppose. So either we bank on URU-deal for DR or we expect non payment and later restructuring with minimal NPV loss…IMHO

From what I see Leonel may be willing to pay coupons before and during negotiating a rescheduling and then may default later on old remaining bonds held by a tiny number of holdouts after rescheduling… however I can be mistaken and Leonel may decide to scare bondholders by delaying on coupons and leverage negotiating position vis-ŕ-vis creditors before entering any rescheduling talks. Am I wrong in my assumptions?


07-07-04  Chuy: <Pilly and Danni>. Aoccdring to a rscheerch at an Elingsh Uinrvtisy, it deosn't mttaer in waht ordedr the ltteers in a wrod aer, the olny ipromtnt tihng frist and lsat ltteer is at the rghit pclae. The rset can be a toatl mses and you can sitll raed it wouthit porbelm. tihs is bcuseae we do not raed ervry lteter by itslef but the wrod as a wloe.:-))

07-07-04  PILLZ: <Jul. 8--Abraxas Petroleum Corp. stock dropped 11 percent after volatile trading Wednesday on news that the company wasn't able to get consent from bondholders to increase its capital spending.

The San Antonio-based exploration and production company announced that a consent solicitation related to notes due in 2007 expired without a majority of bondholders offering approval.

Abraxas had budgeted $10 million for capital spending this year, but a strong commodities market and more cash flow means it can afford to spend about twice that much, said Chief Financial Officer Chris Williford.

"Abraxas is not under the gun," Williford said. "We did not have to do this."

But the company would need to pay a fee to bondholders as well as get their permission, Williford said, and they could not agree on a fee amount.

"For the benefit of all of our stakeholders, Abraxas determined that it just did not make any sense to pay that fee that they were asking us for," he said. "We can operate our business without getting that indenture amended, and that's what we've elected to do at this point."

The closing price of $1.30 per share was well above Abraxas' 52-week low of 82 cents last July. But it has gradually been weakening from a dramatic spike to $3.49 in early February after a tout in an MSN.com report on undervalued stocks.

The report noted Fidelity Investments vice chairman Peter Lynch's purchases of Abraxas stock and said "the stock traded as high as $5 a couple of years ago, before natural gas prices broke down, and it could well retrace its steps if the energy group stays strong this year."

As of March 31, Lynch still held more than 3 million shares of Abraxas stock, or about 9 percent of the company. >


07-07-04  PILLZ: <Merlino: L3 stock cut to underweight by JPM> Merlino, wake up L-3 is not Level 3, L-3 is LLL, level 3 is LVLT

07-07-04  victorn: mp, merlino, ok thanks.

07-07-04  victorn: Lawmaker: Reserves Near Breaking Point

WASHINGTON - In a bipartisan show of concern that the military is dangerously overworked, lawmakers said Wednesday the Pentagon (news - web sites) is stretching troops to their limit and perhaps undermining the nation's future force.

Amid worries the high level of deployments to Iraq (news - web sites) and Afghanistan (news - web sites) could discourage potential new service members, Rep. John McHugh, R-N.Y., said it was not reassuring that most reserve components were falling below their recruiting goals for the year.

As of May 31, the Army National Guard was reported at 88 percent, the Air National Guard at 93 percent and the Air Force Reserve at 91 percent of their goals.

"We're taxing our part-time soldiers, our Guard and Reserves nearly to the breaking point," said Rep. Ike Skelton of Missouri, top Democrat on the House Armed Services Committee. "We have to be aware that the families back home are paying a significant price. We don't want to break the force."

Added Rep. Duncan Hunter, R-Calif., the committee chairman: "We're also concerned that insufficient force structure and manpower are leading the services to make decisions that I liken to eating the seed corn. That is, in order to make it through today, we do things that mortgage the future."

The Army recently decided to deploy units that have been used to train other soldiers. Hunter also noted that the ratio of reserves to active duty soldiers in Iraq is increasing and he said he was concerned that troops are not getting enough turnaround time back in the states.

Defense Department officials testified at a committee hearing about troop rotations in Iraq and Afghanistan. The session followed last week's announcement that the Army was calling up soldiers who had already served in the Middle East.

Stretched by war needs, the Pentagon already had declared a "stop-loss" to prevent troops from leaving once they have finished their obligation.

The Army in April broke a promise to some active-duty units, including the 1st Armored Division, that they would not have to serve more than 12 months in Iraq. It also has extended the tours of other units, including some in Afghanistan.

Some lawmakers are seeking a permanent increase in the size of the military. But Pentagon personnel chief David Chu said defense officials can make better use of those in the service by reorganizing brigades, making sure uniformed personnel are not performing jobs civilians could do and temporarily increasing troops levels with stop-loss and other devices.

"I really think you're wrong," Rep. Tom Cole, R-Okla., told Chu.

Cole said the Pentagon is doing a superb job of managing it resources, but that "in the end, it does take people, and you are using people pretty hard right now."

"At some point there's a limit in terms of personnel, and I think you're there, Cole said.

Critics have charged that wide use of the stop-loss device and dipping into the Individual Ready Reserve amount to conscripting people to fight in Iraq.

For the first time since the 1991 Gulf War (news - web sites), the Army is forcing thousands of former soldiers back into uniform, a reflection of the strain on the service of the long campaign in Iraq, coming on top of the global fight against terrorism.

More than 5,600 former soldiers — mostly those who recently finished serving and have skills in military policing, engineering, logistics, medicine or transportation — will be assigned to National Guard and Reserve units scheduled to deploy to Iraq or Afghanistan, officials announced last week.

Members of the Individual Ready Reserve, perhaps thousands more are likely to be called up next year, the Pentagon said.

People in the Individual Ready Reserve are distinct from the National Guard and Reserve because they do not perform regularly scheduled training and are not paid as reservists.

They are eligible to be recalled in an emergency because their active duty stints did not complete the service obligation in their enlistment contracts.


07-07-04  victorn: amigo, u have mail.

07-07-04  moneypenny: Vic: It doesn't necessarily have to come down to Florida. There are several 'swing' states that could go either way. Florida is just one of the possibilities, all things being equal. In this election, they might go for Kerry but maybe Ohio will be the trouble spot. Or Missouri. Or Pennsylvania. All of these are known as 'battleground' states.

As for the Miami Cubans, I hear that the irritation is mostly among the younger ones, the older establishment ones are still firmly pro-Bush. And it is a pretty old community, on the whole. Kerry knows he won't get all of the Miami Cuban vote, he just wants to nibble at the edges. He might succeed but it doesn't mean he will get the whole state. Most Miami Cubans see right through Kerry's pandering and know he's just trawling for votes, as far as I can tell. The other thing is, the Miami Cubans may be annoyed at not being able to visit their relatives, but if they see it as part of a steady strategy, they probably won't change their vote. What they don't want is a flipflopper who will do what the Davos crowd tells him to. Or worse yet, what the leftists tell him to. IMHO I think he won't get Florida.


07-07-04  Merlino: Vic, just out of my mind, I believe that the year Reagan was reappointed the economy was really booming, with GDP growth of 7 % plus.

07-07-04  Merlino: Vic, GWB also looks to be the only president but for Hoover who has presided over a NET loss of jobs over his tenure.

Anyway, I dislike Bush but believe he will be reappointed by a rather ample margin.


07-07-04  victorn: mp which reminds me of a question i wanted to ask you, as you are confident that bush will win. last election was pretty close in fla, and bush only won thanks to fla. but now cuban americans in fla are mad at bush for what bush has done for cuba: made the situation worse. some cuban americans have publicly expressed that they would not vote for bush again. do you expect bush to win again in florida? if yes, aren't you being too optimistic? if not, then how would bush win w/o fla?

07-07-04  victorn: ok, so it was 10452 on jan 2. according to that statistic bush would lose.

07-07-04  victorn: merlino <Blood in US after hours stock market, specially tech > the other day i was reading that in the 20th century, only 2 presidents have been re-elected with a "bad" stock market (as measured by a year loss in the dow jones during re-election year). ike and reagan. does anybody remember what was the dow jones at the start of the year?

07-07-04  moneypenny: More 'dog ate our homework' from Ladrones...

<Ladronia will ask the International Monetary Fund to be excused for failing to carry out structural reforms it had promised to undertake as part of its three-year agreement.>

http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentS...


07-07-04  Merlino: L3 stock cut to underweight by JPM I understand this has happened after hours Lets see whether this brings bond prices down a bit

07-07-04  Merlino: Pill, Rogue, Thanks

Blood in US after hours stock market, specially tech


07-07-04  panasonic: With favourable gas market, ABP could stay "in-between" for a long time. In that case, we continue with our coupon-clipper life, no problem.

07-07-04  PILLZ: Pana, no higher incentive will help, only a takeover from another gas-oil C°, it will come when ABP schtock go below 1 or 0.5, they will refinance to call the blondholders, and they may spend to dig as they like..

07-07-04  roguetrader18: lvlt 12.875 more like 72-73

07-07-04  panasonic: <abp> if they insist to give us a higher incentive, I'm ok :-)

07-07-04  PILLZ: Merlino, yes the discount, but you can buy it now below 75

Pana, danny flom Rogue <Dal 8.3 '29 are 41-43 500k up.

<Abraxas still working on getting color . street has been quiet on the issue, want to initiate and show something? There is no market. YOU are the market =)>>>>>


07-07-04  carib: Panas: consesus in important for ABP shareholders. For us... no consensus means they have possibly to pay more.

07-07-04  panasonic: <abp> finally consent expired unsuccessful, sorry fr my ignorance, why is consent so important?

07-07-04  Fogg: Thanks carib.

07-07-04  panasonic: <pilly, carib> do you have recent price of Ablaxas?

07-07-04  carib: Fogg: i think RCN bid is now below 60, but not far.

07-07-04  Merlino: Carib, 12.875 % maturity 03/15/2010 Current prices 73.00-75.00 ?
Thanks

07-07-04  Fogg: What´s about RCN?. Some recent price?. Thanks.

07-07-04  carib: that starts

07-07-04  carib: Merlino: the Level3 discount is a zero coup tharts paying 12,875% in march 2005.

07-07-04  carib: Bought some Cydsa below 27 today. I wonder if I joined a club where Leo and Savo are still members...

07-07-04  danni: i try to load more dal29 8.3% 0.5ton but the price is 45c & cpn07 8.75% the price is 70.8

07-07-04  manya: Peru eyes $1 bln bonds to prepay Paris Club debt (REUTERS)


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