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Other Forums: What's New Bond Discussions Newslink |
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Posted by
BradyNet
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Friday, July 9, '04
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The point is that <monkeys> are unable to hold even very samll amounts in their books.
Research is written, traders and sales people are hired, perks are paid, technology is installed and then ... what happens?
They are unable to quote a price and if they do it has 2 points or more of spread, if you are lucky and find a two way market.
These people can't arbitrage something as simple as two Venezuelan soveriegn bonds that mature in the same year, like the two veni 18s!
These people can't arbitrage two PBA bonds with similar coupons just because they are different currencies.
It is a very pathetic work force .. to call it somehow.
Savo, if the sale of 500 thou can depress the Mendoza bond price by 5-6 points, one could imagine the effect of the sale of 1 million ! 15-20 points ?
IMO, Mendoza is a good buy at this price level and a still better buy in the low 60’s. (However you and nautilus are more knowledgeable re Mendoza.)
<Bonos suben 6%: apuestan a que habrá un pago en efectivo a los acreedores>
El mercado redobló ayer la apuesta a que Roberto Lavagna mejorará la oferta a los acreedores con un pago inicial en efectivo, es decir, un adelanto de cupones de los nuevos títulos a emitir. Esperan también que se respete la totalidad de los intereses vencidos e impagos. Esa combinación fue el principal motor de la suba ayer de los bonos en default que, en algunos casos, llegó a superar 6%, como el Global 2015. Los operadores creen que un acuerdo con el gobierno llegará más rápido y se entusiasman con la acumulación de dólares por compras que hace el Nación, que creen se utilizarán en la oferta. Pero crece la preocupación por el mal resultado de la gira de Guillermo Nielsen por Europa, señal de complicaciones con el FMI. Los bonos que se encuentran en pleno proceso de reestructuración subieron ayer hasta 6 por ciento, en respuesta a una posible mejora en la propuesta para el pago de estos papeles.
Como señaló este diario, en el mercado continúan apostando a que el gobierno reconozca la totalidad de los intereses atrasados de su deuda en default como así también auguran la posibilidad de un pago en efectivo, como adelanto de cupones de los futuros títulos por emitir.
En el Mercado Abierto Electrónico (MAE), el Global 2015 subió 6,40%, seguido por el Global 2018 (2,96%), el Global 2031 (2,35%) y el Global (2,23%); hasta antes del default, estos instrumentosposeían una tasa de rendimiento promedio de 12 por ciento anual.
En la actualidad, continúa viéndose una diferencia entre el valor presente de los bonos que el gobierno propuso para renegociar su deuda, que se ubica entre u$s 23 y u$s 24, y el valor de mercado que exhiben los bonos defaulteados, que cotizan entre u$s 28 y u$s 30.
• Anticipación
Según los operadores, la diferencia se explica casi intuitivamente por la esperanza de una mejora en la oferta final. «Se anticipa algo», dijo Alejandro Nieto, mandatario de Coins Society, quien agregó que «los acreedores descuentan una nueva mejora en la oferta y un acuerdo más temprano que tarde sobre este tema». Lo que queda claro es que habrá más retoques a la propuesta, cuyo nivel de aceptación no alcanzaría hoy ni siquiera 50%.
Esta presunción se torna más creíble cuando los inversores observan la manera en que el Banco Nación continúa acumulando divisas mediante su diaria intervención en el mercado de cambios, donde compra entre u$s 10 y u$s 15 millones por cuenta y orden del Tesoro, lo cual lleva a la especulación de que la entidad estuviera haciéndose de un «colchón» de reservas para luego ponerlas a disposición de un pago en efectivo, además de evitar una mayor apreciación del peso.
Por su parte, los bonos posdefault o «performing», como los llaman los operadores, están viéndose afectados negativamente en sus volúmenes por la incertidumbre sobre los avances en la revisión del FMI y el ritmo de negociaciones en la reestructuración de la deuda, tras el saldo negativo con el que retornó el secretario de Finanzas, Guillermo Nielsen, de su última gira europea. Igual hubo ayer compras del exterior y de AFJP sobre BODEN. Por el contrario, las alzas de los bonos que se hallan en cesación de pagos desde diciembre de 2001 anuncian cierto optimismo y refuerzan el escenario de una mejora en la propuesta, teniendo en cuenta las bajas que mostraron los mercados de Estados Unidos y Brasil.
Los Global cerraron ayer en Nueva York a u$s 28,19 para el Global 2031, la serie 2017 lo hizo en u$s 29,75 y el Global 2015 terminó a u$s 30.
• Especulación
«Los Global, especialmente aquellos que acumulan mayores intereses impagos, subieron ante la especulación de que el gobierno podría reconocer un volumen más alto de estos intereses y la posibilidad de un pago en efectivo», explicó Virginia Brocco, analista de Puente Hnos.
«Lo que moviliza hoy a los inversores es la especulación de un pago en efectivo», afirmó Nieto. «Si bien está descontado en el mercado un aumento en los intereses a reconocer, aún no se maneja cuál será dicho porcentaje.»
Si en algo coinciden los analistas, es en que los bonistas prefieren un adelanto «cash» a que les reconozcan 100% de los intereses, pero con un nuevo bono a muy largo plazo.
somebody probably sold 500 thou and the <monkeys> are having trouble holding them in their books!
Stalin v Putin, those suffering, blah-blah - you're mistaken and need some rest or just reduce your wine/grass consumption level:).
Khoroshikh vykhodnykh druzhishe.
1)Interbank war which went too far - may be. 2) Foreign banks increasing market share and seeking for legislation changes - plausible. 3) Both - also plausible.
Government and administration acted awkwardly - on that i agree.
Nothing more and nothing less
Why do they call it a <reform>? It's a hike. A tax hike. It doesn't take a lot of skill or imagination to take more rather less. It's like filling one's plate with a second helping. Or sending a pig to the trough twice. Nothing's reformed, it's just mined or harvested or stripped harder. It's what a ladron masters, rapidamente.
The media are so biased when they are in bed with Lovely Anne.
Dominguez said that the principal responsibility of the government is to maintain macroeconomic stability in the country. “We have a Central Bank that is very vocal, perhaps the most vocal in the world, where central bankers are usually conservative when speaking to the public and appearing in the media,” he stated. “Here, they talk about everything, with the exception of what they will do to achieve price stability, which is their legal mandate,” he said
<The telecommunications group group, which comprised Freddy Dominguez for Verizon, Pierre Yves Janin for Orange, Carl Carlson for Tricom, and Raul Salvado for Centennial, warned that these new taxes would distort the market and directly affect consumers. Dominguez said that for every peso that enters the telecom industry, 28 cents return to the state. He said the proposal to hit the industry with yet more taxes goes against the global trend of stimulating the sector as a backbone for the development of tourism, manufacturing and other sectors. **** Dominguez said that the tax reform is being seen as urgent to solve a problem created by the banking crisis and the quasi-fiscal debt of the Central Bank. But, he wondered, where are the guarantees that such a situation will not recur? >
no
<<<Can we expect that much from them? >>>
no
Defaults made up 3.3 percent of the lowest-rated global corporate bond market as June came to a close, down from 4.2 percent at the end of the first quarter.
'Balance-sheet repair, debt-refinancing and improving profitability of corporate issuers has resulted in steadily improving fundamental credit quality over the past two years,' said David Hamilton, Moody's director of default research.
The credit-rating agency predicts the default rate will stand at 2.8 percent by the end of this year and 2.9 percent by the end of 2005.
The low default rates of the late 1990s, a period in which the 'economy was on fire and bond issuance was hot, all during a benign rate environment,' were anomalies not likely to be repeated, Hamilton said. The default rate fell as low as 1.4 percent in April 1997, and its recent peak was 10.9 percent in January 2002.
Based on ratings changes, industrial production figures and interest rates, 'a cyclical low in the neighborhood of 2.7 percent may be the best we can expect for some time.'
While U.S. interest rates are expected to rise this year and next, the expected pace of rising rates isn't likely to derail the upswing in the credit markets, he said.
The rate of U.S. defaults alone stood at 3.8 percent in the second quarter, down from 4.5 percent at the end of the first quarter and the 2002 peak of 11.6 percent.
The second quarter's biggest default came from Pegasus Satellite Communications , which together with its affiliate, Pegasus Media & Communications, defaulted on $877 million worth of bonds in June.
Telecommunications firms had led defaults over the past few years, but Hamilton said more recent defaults have not been limited to a specific sector.
Carib, not for those shorting long term calls, see yu demain , go to laga BRX, next week 28°C in Venise..:-) btw. it's buying time for the <Level 3 Communications, Inc. 9.125 '08 74.00 >
http://www.efenews.com/latinamerica...
I wonder if it was planned out this way.
<monkeys 2 to 1 math> having some problem.
Have monkeys finally catch up with the fact that PDVSA is buying back 2.6 bn of bonds, and that a conservative estimation would bring back at least 800 million dollars bidding for other veni bonds?
Have <monkeys> finally learn to read the <signs of times>?
Can we expect that much from them?
Horizon Natural Resources Co.´s $465 million term loan rose ten points to the 66-70 context from the 54-56 level where it was seen trading three weeks ago. “The notes have become commodity driven, which is coal”, a trader said. The strength in the coal market makes the company more attractive, he added. The debt is not believed to be trading heavily, though earlier today a trade was completed, said one broker.
The ten point rise is part the upwards rally started by Horizon last month, when Newcoal, a company formed when W.L. Ross & Co. teamed up with the majority holders of the second-lien paper, Contrarian Capital management, Greenlight Capital, Stark Investments and Varde Partners to place a $277 million bid for the energy company. Only weeks before the paper was trading in the 30s range.
Prior to Ross' involvement, the majority holders of the second-lien paper put in a bid that was approximately $37 million less and did not have the weight of Ross' involvement. The bankruptcy court has approved the new plan which has significant upside potential as coal prices rebound.
Under the Ross plan, a rights offering will be made to noteholders to raise proceeds to fund the asset purchase. The rights offering will require a $125 million equity contribution from the noteholders and Ross. After the rights offering Ross and the second-lien holders will own more than 50% of Horizon's equity, approximately $140 million.
Two years ago Horizon, then known as AEI Resources, faced a liquidity crisis caused by weak demand in the coal industry, increased inventories and an uncompetitive capital structure that led the company to file for bankruptcy twice in the same year. When Horizon first emerged from bankruptcy in May 2002 the company distributed $465 million of senior secured term notes and $450 million of 11.75% notes in exchange for $875 million of pre-petition bank debt with UBS. After the company filed for bankruptcy for the second time more than 50% of the $465 million term notes were acquired by the group of four investors. >
sometimes it gets things in perspective ;-))))))
And 2.5 DR for one Rus28...and 2 Parmalats for one Argy, but such comparisons somehow seem not very relevant...:-)))
2 to 1 <monkey math>... the usual.
Bad for veni...
Did lowered labor costs restore Argy?
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