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Posted by
BradyNet
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Friday, July 16, '04
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No blow out number
thanks victor and the like !!!!!!!!
bs story, these things can be obtaines on the Internet !!
<A really strong economy is not easy to imagine, with such a CA deficit to start with: the gap would explode> I think we have seen the top in deficits for this cycle. Both fiscal and CA deficits will diminish (Hoisington even talks of a current balanced budget at local/state levels and of a current reduction of 1% GDP in federal fiscal deficit. This is happening now and only a few months ago almost nobody was expecting it. Even the trade gap I bet will go down a bit as GDP growth and consumption slow down and the rest of the world increases consumption and imports. They do not have problems in financing their CA gap because as Savo has put it most simple, every dollar which goes out must come back home one way or another.
<And the unemployed americans are -mostly- unemployable with the current dollar value: any growth in demand spills in a large measure to imported goods. Low rates are powerless in this situation. The obvious solution is a lower exchange value for the dollar. The other way is contraction of domestic US demand, that seems not politically viable, and would be a lot more harmful in welfare terms. > As you have previously said , the output gap could be structural and consequently a part of the unemployment also, both located in uncompetitive areas of the economy. However, at the same time they seem to be investing heavily in competitive areas of the economy and I guess a good part of it is in tradable goods (both physical or intellectual) production. A truly weak dollar I think could be real only in the very long run. I have not followed closely G Britain history but I guess something like that can happen to USA in a slower motion. A truly devalued dollar I don't think we will see in lets say next twenty years unless something really catastrophic happens at world level, such as WWI & II impacted G Britain,
A really strong economy is not easy to imagine, with such a CA deficit to start with: the gap would explode. And the unemployed americans are -mostly- unemployable with the current dollar value: any growth in demand spills in a large measure to imported goods.
Low rates are powerless in this situation. The obvious solution is a lower exchange value for the dollar. The other way is contraction of domestic US demand, that seems not politically viable, and would be a lot more harmful in welfare terms.
July 16 (Bloomberg) -- China's economic growth unexpectedly slowed in the second quarter, suggesting government lending curbs are cooling the world's fastest-growing major economy.
Gross domestic product rose 9.6 percent from a year earlier after climbing 9.8 percent in the first quarter, the government said in Beijing. The gain, which partly reflects the impact of the SARS outbreak in the year-earlier period, is the smallest since the third quarter and less than the median 10.5 percent increase forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of 10 economists.
Premier Wen Jiabao, 61, is trying to engineer a gradual slowdown in Asia's second-largest economy by restricting investment in industries including autos, aluminum and steel that the government says are expanding too rapidly. He said in June the measures would help the government meet its target of easing growth from last year's 9.1 percent, a seven-year high.
``The growth rate of investment in fixed assets in certain sectors is still high,'' the Beijing-based National Bureau of Statistics said in a statement released in Beijing. ``Efforts should continue in further implementing and improving various policies for macroeconomic regulation.''
Fixed-asset investment increased 29 percent to 2.61 trillion yuan ($315 billion) in the first half, less than the first quarter's 43 percent increase, today's statement said. Investment in real estate rose 29 percent to 492 billion yuan in the first half, having gained 41 percent in the January-March period. For June alone, investment gained 23 percent after climbing 18 percent the previous month.
Inflation
Inflation averaged 3.6 percent in the first half, driven by a 9.5 percent gain in food prices. The cost of clothing, household appliances, vehicles and telecom products all fell.
For June alone, consumer prices rose 5 percent from a year earlier, as forecast by economists in the Bloomberg survey, after gaining 4.4 percent in May. That's their biggest gain in more than eight years. From May, prices fell 0.7 percent. The figures aren't seasonally adjusted.
Central bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said in May the bank was holding off from raising lending rates for the first time in nine years because inflation was still below 5 percent.
Rising incomes helped stoke consumer spending. Retail sales increased 13 percent in the first half, with sales of telecommunications equipment jumping 52 percent and petroleum product sales surging 44 percent. Per capita disposable incomes in urban areas, home to a third of the nation's 1.3 billion people, rose 12 percent to 4,815 yuan in the first three months. Rural incomes gained 16 percent to 1,345 yuan.
For June alone, retail sales surged 14 percent following an 18 percent jump in May. That's less than the 16 percent increase forecast by economists.
For the first half, the economy grew 9.7 percent, today's report said.
Executives of Washington-based Riggs Bank approached Pinochet in Chile in 1994 and invited him to open an account, said Senator Carl Levin, delivering the conclusions of the document in the Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations.
Levin, calling the 88-year-old Pinochet a "notorious military leader accused of involvement with death squads, corruption, arms sales and drug trafficking," said the former general agreed to open the account.
"The bank opened an account for him personally, helped him establish two offshore shell corporations in the Bahamas called Ashburton and Althorp, and then opened more accounts in the name of those shell corporations both here and in the UK (Britain)," Levin said.
From 1994 to 2002, Pinochet deposited between four million to eight million dollars in his Riggs accounts, the report said.
Prime Minister Helen Clark Thursday night condemned Israel for breaching New Zealand's sovereignty after Uriel Zoshe Kelman and Eli Cara were each sentenced to six months in jail for attempting to fraudulently obtain a passport.
Clark said she had no doubt they were Israeli government agents and called on Israel to explain and apologize for its "utterly unacceptable" behavior.
"Needless to say, (the bank) didn't alert law enforcement or the courts to his accounts," said Sen Levin. "We can't allow our financial systems to be misused by corrupt dictators, terrorists or other criminals." ..Senate subcommittee's chairman, Republican Senator Norm Coleman, lamented the bank's decision to keep Pinochet's accounts secret from US bank regulators. "For eight years, Riggs officials did not verify the source of his wealth, nor did they disclose the existence of these accounts to the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC)," Coleman said In Santiago, Chilean President Ricardo Lagos said that if the report were confirmed, an investigation would be appropriate. "If the result of the US Senate investigation determines that level of accounts, and who the account holder is, some kind of commission probably should be set up to investigate" to determine "the nature of those accounts," said Lagos. >
http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=sto...
http://www.hoisingtonmgt.com/HIM200...
<El Gobierno de Estados Unidos depura en estos momentos el visado que poseen <más de cuarenta> funcionarios judiciales y que procedería a quitárselos por supuestos actos de corrupción... Se reveló que se depuran jueces de paz, primeras instancias y de Cortes Penales.... Trascendió que los casos son de jueces que supuestamente han emitido sentencias dudosas favoreciendo a narcotraficantes nacionales y extranjeros y presuntos criminales y contra quienes se han producido denuncias sobre actos de corrupción..... Los informes además dijeron que un gran porcentaje de los reos favorecidos con orden de libertad por jueces, han sido solicitados en extradición por Estados Unidos encontrando obstáculos en lograr la entrega de los reclamados.......>
During the last two years, US apparently cancelled visas of 55 DR executive branch officials(cabinet ministers, military officials, etc)
http://www.hoisingtonmgt.com/HIM200...
I like contrarian views but would like even more a blow out CPI reading able to produce a nice mini crisis and investment opportunities !
MADRID, Spain - Europe's biggest terrorist threat is Morocco — seething with as many as 1,000 al-Qaida adherents capable of suicide attacks and skilled at slipping through the continent's southern gateway, Spain's leading anti-terrorism judge testified Thursday.
The impoverished kingdom just a short ferry ride across the Strait of Gibraltar has about 100 al-Qaida-linked cells that raise money by dealing hashish, fencing luxury cars and smuggling people into Spain, Judge Baltasar Garzon told lawmakers investigating the Madrid train bombings. Most of the 17 suspects jailed in the March 11 bombings, which killed 190 people, are Moroccan.
"They use every means and mechanism, and their activity can even be initially perceived as ordinary delinquency," Garzon said of the cells.
"In my opinion it is the gravest problem Europe faces today with this kind of terrorism."
Jerusalén, 15 jul (EFE).- El suicidio se ha convertido en la principal causa de muerte entre los militares israelíes, según un informe elaborado por la División de Rehabilitación del Ministerio de Defensa de Israel, que añade que dicha acción registró un aumento del 30 por ciento durante 2003 respecto al año anterior.
El informe indica que en 2003 el número de soldados que se suicidaron fue significativamente elevado y superior al de militares muertos en servicio o fallecidos por cualquier otra causa.
De acuerdo con el documento, 43 soldados se suicidaron el pasado año, mientras que 30 perdieron la vida en operaciones militares.
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