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Posted by BradyNet ( Friday, July 16, '04 )
 
*NEW* Stay on top of important market events with the IdeaGlobal/BradyNet Economic Calendar

 GLOBAL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
*Manilas cowardly act 07-16-04 (Yahoo) The Philippines is pulling its troops out of Iraq to try to satisfy terrorists who kidnapped a Filipino truck driver.
*When it comes to the economy, neither Bush nor Kerry sees the big picture 07-16-04 (USA Today) President Bush asserts he has led the U.S. to a solid economic recovery. Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry says the administration has let the U.S. down in terms of job growth.
*Newsview: Iraq Becomes Political Problem 07-15-04 (Yahoo) The Iraq (news - web sites) war is not only a major election-year problem for the Bush administration, it is proving a monumental political pain for America's friends.
*Summit Meeting: Bush New Conciliatory Approach 07-15-04 (Yahoo) Diplomacy in an election year: At the G8 conference on Sea Island, the beleaguered US president uses the once-shunned representatives of "Old Europe" as political props. But this staged harmony does a poor job of concealing continuing differences.
*Evans Attacks Bushs Critics for Views 07-15-04 (Yahoo) Commerce Secretary Donald Evans, seeking to counter Democrats' criticism of President Bush's economic policies, says the administration is putting in place the building blocks for what could be the strongest decade of economic growth in memory.
*US retail sales plunge, cast doubt on economic power 07-15-04 (Yahoo) US retail sales took a 16-month record plunge in June as shoppers fled car showrooms, government data showed, stirring concerns over the stamina of the economy.
*US trade gap narrows as exports rise 07-15-04 (Yahoo) The US trade deficit narrowed slightly in May, according to official figures released on Tuesday morning.

 LATIN AMERICA
*Brazils president Lula losing support as reforms lag 07-16-04 (Yahoo) Two years ago, the wooden Jose Serra lost the Brazilian presidency to the charismatic Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva by the widest margin in the country's modern history.
*Brazil Daily Oil Output Increases in June 07-15-04 (Yahoo) Brazilian crude oil production averaged 2.024 million barrels per day in June, up more than 4 percent from May, state oil company Petrobras said Wednesday.

 ASIA
*Hong Kong Tops Economic Freedom List 07-16-04 (Yahoo) Even though Hong Kong is experiencing political difficulties, it retains the highest ranking for economic freedom, according to a survey released Thursday.
*India Sees Backlash Fading Over Boom in Outsourcing 07-15-04 (NY Times) The backlash against the outsourcing of software and back-office services to India appears to have died down,

 OIL PRICES
*Iraq oil export pipeline ablaze after attack 07-16-04 (Yahoo) Suspected insurgents set ablaze the export pipeline from Iraq's northern oil fields in a new blow to the caretaker government's efforts to revive the country's main revenue earner.
*OPEC to Raise Oil Production by 2 Percent 07-16-04 (Yahoo) With the price of oil stuck above $40 a barrel, OPEC agreed Thursday to raise its daily production target by 500,000 barrels, or 2 percent, in an effort to keep crude prices from lurching even higher.
*Oil Holds Near $40 After Inventory Report 07-15-04 (Yahoo) U.S. oil prices held just below $40 on Wednesday as a weekly U.S. government report showed a fall in crude and gasoline stockpiles but a rise in heating oil inventory.
*Board Concerned Over Iraq Oil Production 07-15-04 (Yahoo) The international board charged with monitoring Iraq's oil revenue says it is concerned about the lack of equipment measuring how much crude is being extracted.....
 
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09-17-04  amigo latino: <Primo, I am not sure if benefits of learning Chinese and Hindu would outweight costs :))).........>

Glutt: Hindu(Hinduism) refers to religión. Hindi is a language


09-17-04  amigo latino: <Glutt:.But as you have connection and can post I suppose you are fine … btw, strange country is this DR, electro power stays on after hurricane but disappears on peaceful quiet days :- >

Glutt: A big surprise, though very pleasant, is that the electricity supply stayed <almost> uninterrupted yesterday for about 23-24 hours---it never happened in the last two years. It has been very nice to spend a full day with the power - Supply on. However since early morning the power supply is off—back to the usual!

As to the weather it is bad— very windy and rainy. Internet was cut off for about 2-3 hrs today because of some broken lines and it is now working again.


09-17-04  carib: <Argi bonds are worth aLOT more than the 29c you can get them for...> Actually, you can get them @27¢ too... :-) OK, Cheeta is on record making this point. I guess no <Colore> will be unhappy if it turns out Cheeta is right.. but I am not sure many expect that to be true. Time will tell... How much time, BTW?

09-17-04  rafi3: Savo:< rafi...105 next month and it will still be significantly underpriced by the jurassics> Savo: will be if we see a double top in charts of EM

09-17-04  Cheetah: guess with all veni @ par and all Brazil @ par...the only EMB left is Argi...well below par...

if the market is paying par and above for all Latin America including Bird Shit...

Argi bonds are worth aLOT more than the 29c you can get them for...

Argi is a BARGAIN !!!

viva Punta del Este !!!


09-17-04  panasonic: <Savo> which GGAL you like more at current levels?

09-17-04  SPAL: < Confirms my view for the reason of his appointment. > it is as usual Savo correct.

... the guy is smooth and on the surface just a bit better than average ... that is why bankers /politicians like him ...


09-17-04  savonarola: spal...<mostly late night calls from Argentina>

I thought so... I haven't met anybody yet who has seen this guy do any real work.

Confirms my view for the reason of his appointment.


09-17-04  panasonic: <savonarola: Veni still unable to decouple from Brazil> time to divorce Brazil? opinions pls.

09-17-04  SPAL: <09-17-04 savonarola: spal... what did he do there? > mostly late night calls from Argentina ... ;-)

09-17-04  savonarola: spal... what did he do there?

09-17-04  savonarola: rafi...<105 next month>

and it will still be significantly underpriced by the <jurassics>


09-17-04  SPAL: <09-17-04 savonarola: spal...salomon brothers? > After Solly he worked for Security Pacific's merchant bank - I met him there in NY 15 years ago.

09-17-04  carib: R$ 2,87.... AAAdviiiiceeee?

09-17-04  ozymiani: <Patient-Trader>: <Glut, YOU take YOURSELF too seriously> HAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH GHHAAAAAAAAAAAAAA BWAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

quote of the year


09-17-04  savonarola: spal...salomon brothers?

09-17-04  carib: Argy globals, for whatever reason, appear to believe Gay out means less possibility of a successfull exchange. Maybe they are misreading, maybe not.

09-17-04  rafi3: Fly Veni 27 Fly,Now 99.88 to 105 next month :-))

09-17-04  SPAL: < 09-17-04 Fox: <Redrado> Good expirienced economist once a Menem protege. > worked for the same bank I worked for years ago - met him back then - some 15 years back.

09-17-04  Neznaika: PT: I pity those taking their clues from a pathetic rag like Moscow Times. The columnist roster at MT consists mostly of total scum of earth like Felgenhauer or Albatz, most of its articles are either silly or redundant. In the same letter section you can see some responses to really stupid column by Lucian Kim who claimed that most Russians are racist because... a taxi driver used the term "Negr" in conversation with her. Being the editor of supposedly major English-language newspaper this babe L. Kim is apparently unaware that the term "Negr" in Russian is actually neutral, without negative connotation, unlike "black" which can have racist meaning. I watch MT mainly for entertainment reasons - how stupid and low can it go.

09-17-04  carib: Fox: will indexation not produce permanently higher inflation?

09-17-04  savonarola: Veni still unable to decouple from Brazil.

It is in my opinion the biggest price aberration in emerging markets.

Not only veni should trade tighter than Brazil, but I believe veni should trade tighter than USTs!


09-17-04  savonarola: Inevitable....

<monkeys> having to pay up for what they sold in the morning <and they didn't have>.

Those jurassics do not understand that if they arrive to the office and nobody lifts their offers does not mean that they have to turn around and hit the bid.


09-17-04  savonarola: carib...both Prat Gay and Redrado are in my opinion of little value. They both lie in their CVs, although from what I heard that is normal practice in Ladronia.

Additionally they are of little importance. For all practical purpose Ladrovagna is the one running both fiscal and monetary policy. Prat Gay thought that he could play his own cards and probably Redrado will be more manageable for Ladro.

Net, net... neutral to positive from my point of view.


09-17-04  Fox: China is coming back ACH was 11% up yesterday & 6% up today so far. :-))

09-17-04  Fox: <Redrado> Good expirienced economist once a Menem protege.

09-17-04  carib: For what I know of Redrado, I like him

09-17-04  Fox: <Same same like Brasil?>??

IMHO inflation in Uru is peaking but will run higher inflation than Brasil. As Uru it is still more dollarized than Brasil & believe that Uru will use indexation to get rid of dollar habit.


09-17-04  Fox: Carib Im no fan of Prat Gay as a matter of fact IMHO Redrado is better. But Prat Gay was fired for the wrong reasons, clearly his list of candidates for the board were better than K´s that include the head of the National Lottery!! ;-)

09-17-04  carib: Fox: your view of inflation in Uru next few years? Same same like Brasil?

09-17-04  carib: Fox: thanks for the insight

09-17-04  Fox: <EU Trade Commissioner Lamy says Russia may join WTO in 2005-06> http://www.prime-tass.com/news/show...

09-17-04  Fox: Carib on <Ladrones & Prat Gay> Central Bank mandates were due to expire next week Prat Gay wanted to introduced 4 new directors to the board & K wanted to put his own people.

Guess who won?

IMHO the debt issue here was absolutely secondary here.


09-17-04  carib: Or maybe no monkey woke up... but a Colore woke up late?

09-17-04  carib: Savo: another monkey woke up: sea urchins 34,75.. :-)

09-17-04  carib: <El director gerente del Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI), el español Rodrigo Rato, insistió esta mañana en que Argentina tiene que volver a la "normalidad" y consideró "imprescindible" que el gobierno del presidente Néstor Kirchner alcance un acuerdo amplio con sus acreedores.

"Creo que hay una oportunidad en este momento" para que el país sudamericano salga adelante, consideró Rato.> Fox, Savo: does the <booting> of Prat Gay mean Ladrones do NOT want to take <una oportunidad> now?


09-17-04  optimist: From one of Moscow brokerages.. confirming "reserves " news is b/sht..

<Guys, no sensation absolutely! The conference is solely on this resources announcement and some financial figures!
This is a complete kinder-garden!
Once again: those resources announcement are absolutely worthless, accounted for those who doen't understand anything in the geology!>


09-17-04  Fox: Opti! haha!! you are right!! he was very aggresive criticizing the Goverment & Administration. dont know but dont think The President is in the mood to take heat from this <BOLUDO>

09-17-04  optimist: Fox: This bunch of idiots at Yukos deserves going to jail right after the conf. Misamor resigns.. Hope he ll not be accepted at any decent party from now on.. This increased reserves news - the biggest b/sht we ve ever heard.

disclaimer: i hold no pos in Yuk.


09-17-04  Fox: <LOS NUMEROS DE LA ECONOMIA: LOS DATOS DEL INDEC RESULTARON MEJORES A LO ESPERADO. El PBI crece 9% en el año, pese al freno del segundo trimestre.> http://www.clarin.com/diario/2004/0...

09-17-04  Fox: Huge increase of resources!! Putin very Happy!!

<17/9/2004 YUKOS announces results of multi-year resources study at Yuganskneftegas>

http://www.yukos.com/vpo/default.as...


09-17-04  Fox: Any of you participating on the yukos conf call?

09-17-04  savonarola: Meanwhile

GGAL 14 <63-63.5>

GGAL 19 <76-....>


09-17-04  Fox: < Kirchner echó a Prat Gay del BCRA. Asume Redrado Fue porque el titular del Central cuestionó en las últimas horas la forma en que el ministro de Economía, Roberto Lavagna, lleva adelante las negociaciones para la reestructuración de la deuda. También se va el segundo de Prat Gay, Pedro Lacoste. Kirchner propondrá ante el Congreso para ocupar el lugar vacante en el BCRA al actual vicecanciller, Martín Redrado, quien a su vez será reemplazado por Javier González Fraga.>

Ambito Financiero


09-17-04  Fox: Guess K didnt want Prat Gay @ the Central Bank.

09-17-04  mdlp: Sorry for the long post...

<Vázquez dijo que el canje de deuda permitió aliviar presión de pagos Afirmó que la reactivación del país es "ideal" para la gestión económica que piensa llevar adelante la izquierda

SAN PABLO | Loreley Nicrosi | Enviado

Luego de oponerse a las medidas adoptadas por el gobierno del presidente Jorge Batlle tras la crisis financiera, el líder del Encuentro Progresista-Frente Amplio (EP-FA), Tabaré Vázquez, afirmó ayer en esta ciudad que el canje de deuda representó un alivio en la presión del pago y que la deuda pública equivale al 110% del Producto Interno Bruto (PIB).

La afirmación de Vázquez ante la Federación de Industriales de San Pablo, demuestra que en la opinión económica de la izquierda prevalece ahora la posición del senador de Asamblea Uruguay (AU) Danilo Astori —que había defendido el canje de deuda—, quien se menciona como ministro de Economía de la izquierda.

Afirmó que la reactivación que presenta el país es "ideal" para la gestión económica que piensa llevar adelante el gobierno eventual del Encuentro Progresista. "Tenemos una economía para un país que crezca", afirmó Vázquez ante la federación de industriales del Estado de San Pablo. Dijo que va a llevar adelante una administración de estabilidad para asegurarle a los inversores extranjeros equilibrios externos, monetarios y fiscales.

Durante la conferencia en la ciudad de Porto Alegre, el senador Astori anunció que no habrá cambios tributarios en las sociedades anónimas financieras de inversión (SAFI) ni ningún tipo de innovación en el secreto bancario. "Solo habrá alguna calificación para controlar la evasión fiscal pero el secreto bancario se va a mantener", adelantó.

Costin, que no profesa la concepción ideológica de la izquierda, se manifestó conforme con las principales propuestas de Vázquez.

"Siempre decimos la verdad de lo que pensamos", sostuvo Vázquez frente al numeroso auditorio que se congregó para escucharlo. Destacó que la izquierda, en caso de llegar al gobierno, hará una administración que devuelva la confianza que se perdió en el país a causa de la crisis. Dijo que si bien la crisis obedeció a factores externos, fue consecuencia de la gestión de Batlle.

Sostuvo que la pérdida de confianza no es solamente un problema técnico y que la izquierda quiere ofrecer certezas para lograr la inversión extranjera. El candidato reiteró que respetará los contratos y las obligaciones establecidas por el país y dijo que hubo incapacidad del gobierno para detener la corrida bancaria que se produjo en 2002.

"La estabilidad es imprescindible para atraer inversion extranjera", sostuvo Vázquez, para agregar que el año próximo "la izquierda si gana tendrá una pesada carga tributaria" pero aseguró que "esos pagos de todas maneras se van a cumplir". "La izquierda cumplirá con las obligaciones contraiídas", sostuvo.

Subrayó que la izquierda no se opone al entendimiento entre el Estado y los privados. Como ejemplo citó la administración municipal y los emprendimientos con privados, entre ellos la tercerización de los servicios. >


09-17-04  mdlp: thanks carib

09-17-04  gsc: Central Bank President Prat Gay, renunced. Redrado will be next ARG CB, president.

09-17-04  savonarola: it looks as if the street wants to go short again after they lost their shirt with their previous one...

09-17-04  Primo: sam kher:)

09-17-04  savonarola: <Sea-urchins> now <only> 3 points below € PBA. Still 7 points below US$ PBA.

<monkeys, elephants and other jurassics> at their best!


09-17-04  savonarola: Veni 18 (old), the <sick bond> that only vic and I like, finally crossed the 10% YTM on the offer side.


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