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Posted by BradyNet ( Wednesday, November 17, '04 )

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GLOBAL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

Dollars Decline Is 2004s Defining Market Move 11-17-04 (Yahoo) Are the conspiracy theorists correct? Is a unilateral policy of benign dollar neglect by the U.S. administration set to inflict shock and awe on the financial markets? A look at the motivations of the four most interested groups should help determine how willing the U.S. might be to let the dollar extend its slide.

Freight prices expected to boost US rail industry 11-17-04 (Financial Times) North America's railway companies are likely to remain buoyed by higher rail freight prices as an acute driver shortage afflicts the trucking industry and as record demand for coal and agricultural shipments drives rail freight volumes.

Retailers Offer Positive Holiday Outlook 11-17-04 (Yahoo) NEW YORK - The outlook for the holiday season grew more positive Tuesday after major retailers, including Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and J.C. Penney, offered bullish comments about consumer spending as they reported solid earnings increases for the third quarter

Producer Prices: Biggest Gain Since 1990 11-17-04 (Yahoo) WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. producer prices shot up 1.7 percent last month, the biggest gain in nearly 15 years and well above expectations, as energy costs skyrocketed and food prices surged, a government report showed on Tuesday.

Dollar Off Lows After Currency Flow Data 11-17-04 (Yahoo) NEW YORK (Reuters) - The dollar got some relief from mounting selling pressure on Tuesday, recovering from session lows after a U.S. government report showed an increase in U.S. capital inflows in September

Snow says US committed to reducing budget deficit 11-17-04 (Yahoo) The US delegation has been attempting to deflect criticism about the weak dollar and the big trade and budget deficits blamed for the currency's slide to record lows against the euro.

U.S. Gas Prices Dip Below $2 Per Gallon 11-17-04 (Yahoo) The average nationwide price of gasoline fell below $2 dollars a gallon last week. A number of factors, including a seasonal decline in demand and mild weather, have contributed to an oversupply of crude oil. NPR's Scott Horsley reports.

LATIN AMERICA

Argentinas debt offer 11-17-04 (Yahoo) Argentina has unveiled a new offer to the creditors it stopped paying almost three years ago. Will this end the largest sovereign default in history?

Argentina debt offer sparks anger 11-17-04 (BBC) Argentina's government says it has presented financial regulators in the US with plans to reorganise the debts it defaulted on nearly three years ago.

ASIA

IEA: China to Build Strategic Oil Reserves 11-16-04 (Yahoo) TOKYO - The International Energy Agency expects China to start establishing strategic oil stocks in 2005 to provide a stable supply of petroleum to the domestic market.

OIL PRICES

Oil gangs threaten Nigerian unity 11-17-04 (BBC) A gang boss fighting for Ijaw self-determination in the Niger Delta could threaten the world's energy balance and the existence of the Nigerian state itself.

Why Oil Didnt Ignite an Economic Inferno 11-17-04 (Yahoo) Was the surge in oil prices in the second half of 2004 just an illusion? It may seem that way given the surprisingly small impact on U.S. economic data. Though the market price run-up of crude was real enough, the energy industry -- and economy overall -- was seemingly not as exposed to this price swing as in prior price spikes.

The Case for Cheaper Oil 11-16-04 (Yahoo) Oil is lurking in the background whenever we talk about the Mideast, the environment, or debate SUVs. As a result, most people know that the price of crude spiked above $50 this year. And it's certainly common knowledge that crude's first progeny, gasoline, costs well above $2 a gallon at the pump. Ouch.

Crude drops to eight-week low 11-16-04 (Yahoo) Crude oil futures dropped to an eight-week low on Monday as signs of slowing demand and growing fuel inventories unwind the sharp rise in oil prices to record highs seen in October

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11-16-04 Cheetah: What Powell got wrong in his U.N. briefing on Iraq

In the middle of a fascinating article in Monday's Los Angeles Times, which quotes several former Iraqi officers on why they lost the war so badly, the following passage leaps out: "Commanders interviewed for this article said they were issued no orders regarding chemical or biological weapons. And they denied that Iraq ever possessed such weapons."

The truth of this denial is, by now, close to inescapable. Too much time has passed, too many suspicious sites have been inspected, too many knowledgeable sources have been interrogated, for much doubt to remain on the matter. Maybe a ton of VX will be unearthed in Ahmed's basement tomorrow, but this is unlikely�and, at this point, few would regard such a find as authentic.

Whatever officials and apologists may say about it in retrospect, the belief in Iraq's "weapons of mass destruction" was the only compelling reason, really, to have fought this war. Yes, Saddam Hussein was a brutal dictator and his toppling is welcome. But the same could be said of North Korea's Kim Jong-il, with whom the Bush administration is now (properly) preparing to negotiate, or of Liberia's Charles Taylor, whose exile didn't strike Bush as worth the commitment of more than a handful of Marines. Even Paul Wolfowitz, the Pentagon's intellectual architect of Gulf War II, admitted in his famous Vanity Fair interview that Iraqi human rights alone would not have justified the sacrifice of American soldiers.

So let us ask, one more time: Where are the Iraqi WMD? Or, more to the point now, since such weapons will probably never be found: Why did so many�including Bush officials, whose views on this issue, I think, were sincere, if hyped�believe Iraq had WMD in the first place?

The best case that the administration ever made on the issue was Secretary of State Colin Powell's briefing before the U.N. Security Council last Feb. 5, shortly before the war. Powell introduced the briefing as "an accumulation of facts and disturbing patterns of behavior" that "demonstrate that Saddam Hussein and his regime have made no effort to disarm" and, in fact, "are concealing their efforts to produce more weapons of mass destruction."

Months later, news articles reported that Powell had spent several days at CIA headquarters in Langley, Va., looking over the intelligence, and that he put only the strongest evidence in his briefing, tossing out many claims�for instance, the business about uranium-shopping in Niger�that he considered flimsy, if not fraudulent.

Yet in hindsight, his best stuff now looks pretty thin. The four "chemical bunkers," which he showed in overhead spy photos, have since been scoured to a fare-thee-well and come up dry. Powell also made much of aluminum tubes, which he said could be used as centrifuges for enriching uranium* and thus constituted proof that Saddam remained "determined to acquire nuclear weapons." Even back in February, Powell conceded that some intelligence analysts thought the tubes were meant for conventional artillery rockets, though he added, "It strikes me as quite odd that the tubes are manufactured to a tolerance that far exceeds U.S. requirements for comparable rockets." Now, it doesn't seem odd at all; indeed, the tolerances turn out to be exactly the same as those of conventional artillery tubes made in Italy.

As for the "mobile biological-weapons labs," one trailer of which was supposedly found in northern Iraq last May, the Defense Intelligence Agency has recently concluded that the trailer was in fact what Iraqi officials claimed it was: a producer of hydrogen for military weather balloons. (Even the rival Central Intelligence Agency's report of May 28, which called the trailers "the strongest evidence to date that Iraq was hiding a biological-warfare program," was, read closely, far more ambiguous than its sweeping summary paragraphs suggested.)

This leaves one piece of Powell's briefing that remains, to this day, puzzling. It involved two intercepted phone conversations that Powell played and translated. One, recorded Nov. 26, the day before U.N. weapons inspections were to resume, was said to be between a colonel and a brigadier general in the Iraqi Republican Guard. The general says, "I'll come see you in the morning. I'm worried you all have something left." The colonel replies, "We evacuated everything. We don't have anything left." The implication is that the Iraqis have removed illegal materials from a site to be inspected to the next day.

The other conversation, which Powell said was recorded Jan. 30, was supposedly between two commanders of the 2nd Republican Guard Corps. One reads aloud an instruction, as the other writes it down, phrase by phrase: "Remove the expression 'nerve agent' wherever it comes up in wireless communications."

This was by far the most persuasive part of Powell's briefing. At the time, I called it a "smoking gun," writing, "Assuming the tape is genuine and the translation correct, here is the evidence � that a) the Iraqis possess illegal weapons; (b) they are deliberately hiding them from the inspectors; and c) they are not likely to give up the weapons on their own."

I still stand by the logic of that sentence, but I would like to italicize those first few words: "Assuming the tape is genuine�" Given all the shenanigans that have been revealed since the war ended�the forged letter about uranium from Niger, the fictitious claim in Britain's intelligence dossier that Iraqi troops could fire chemical shells with 45 minutes' notice, and all the rest�it can no longer be assumed that the tape is real or that the people speaking on the tape are who Powell said (and no doubt thinks) they are.

It has been well known since last fall that the Bush administration was actively seeking intelligence that would show Iraq had two things: weapons of mass destruction and a connection with al-Qaida. When the CIA and DIA failed to come up with the goods, Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld and a handful of his top aides formed their own intelligence network to search more carefully. If the word had gone out, to friends far and wide, that Rumsfeld was looking for this sort of evidence, is it not conceivable that someone with an interest in seeing Saddam overthrown�and there were many parties who had such an interest�might have "staged" a phone conversation that they knew the National Security Agency would intercept?

Maybe this is far-fetched. If so, the administration should finally tell us who these officers were. Surely there is no point keeping this information classified; revealing their identities would not put them in any danger. These tapes form the last shred of possible evidence that Iraq might have had chemical or biological weapons in the past nine months�that, in other words, the war had any legitimate cause. If the officers were real, name them.

There is another possibility, perhaps equally far-fetched: that the officers were real but they were making things up, on orders, on the assumption that U.S. agents were listening in. Consider this: If Saddam Hussein did not have weapons of mass destruction, why did he behave as if he did? Deterrence might be a reason. If the United States thought he had these weapons, maybe it wouldn't invade. (CIA Director George Tenet had testified, after all, that Saddam would use these weapons only if his regime were threatened with destruction; this logic was the main reason many Americans opposed the war before it started.)

History is filled with precedents for similar disinformation campaigns. In the late 1950s, Soviet premier Nikita Khrushchev proclaimed that his factories were churning out ICBMs "like sausages"�when, in fact, his ICBM program was dreadfully stalled. Khrushchev worried that the Americans were planning a nuclear first strike and thought a Potemkin missile program would give them second thoughts. This was a gross miscalculation; his thundering statements only spurred Eisenhower, then Kennedy, to accelerate and expand the construction of U.S. nuclear missiles.

11-15-04 Patient-Trader: A Report on Mesopotamia by T.E. Lawrence The Sunday Times, 22 August 1920

We said we went to Mesopotamia to defeat Turkey. We said we stayed to deliver the Arabs from the oppression of the Turkish Government, and to make available for the world its resources of corn and oil. We spent nearly a million men and nearly a thousand million of money to these ends. This year we are spending ninety-two thousand men and fifty millions of money on the same objects.

Our government is worse than the old Turkish system. They kept fourteen thousand local conscripts embodied, and killed a yearly average of two hundred Arabs in maintaining peace. We keep ninety thousand men, with aeroplanes, armoured cars, gunboats, and armoured trains. We have killed about ten thousand Arabs in this rising this summer. We cannot hope to maintain such an average: it is a poor country, sparsely peopled; but Abd el Hamid would applaud his masters, if he saw us working. We are told the object of the rising was political, we are not told what the local people want.

.... The Government in Baghdad have been hanging Arabs in that town for political offences, which they call rebellion. The Arabs are not at war with us. Are these illegal executions to provoke the Arabs to reprisals on the three hundred British prisoners they hold? And, if so, is it that their punishment may be more severe, or is it to persuade our other troops to fight to the last?

We say we are in Mesopotamia to develop it for the benefit of the world. all experts say that the labour supply is the ruling factor in its development. How far will the killing of ten thousand villagers and townspeople this summer hinder the production of wheat, cotton, and oil? How long will we permit millions of pounds, thousands of Imperial troops, and tens of thousands of Arabs to be sacrificed on behalf of colonial administration which can benefit nobody but its administrators? http://www.lib.byu.edu/~rdh/wwi/191...

11-15-04 kuda: some are buying alstom shares.....it was the bonds that should be bought last year!!!!

too much debt ,too much shares and remember that in france we work 35hours a week with sometime 8 weeks of hollidays a month + extra days!

good share for day traders but no for colores!

the french dutch bond to be bought is klm perpet 5000chf@ 82% yield more than 6% and air france will probably reimburse it!

still looking for silver security like GBS...

french taxpayer and clipper!

11-15-04 Cciano: mike, the color has become a cemetry of undead zombie shitheads like first of all ozymiani. and, as the idea staff, shame on them, could not care less and completely abandoned the color maintenance, we emigrated. if you want to find serious discussions go to www.coloresmembers.com!

11-15-04 SANTIA: JOAQUIN,CARLOS,CARIB,PILLS,MANYA,WALLI:

I have delta airlines 9.590% 01/12/17

CAN SOMEBODY GIVE ME THE PRICE UP DATE? I could`nt find it.
S.0.S THANKS.

11-15-04 Glutt: Explanation note for, may be, surprised and wondering new readers of the Color of the Market. This forum was not this some time ago but it became crap and abuse chat-board thanks to reckless efforts of Ozymiani and a few other similar sh*theads. Rest in peace, good old Color.

Mr. Ozymiani, a question for you: when was last time when you looked into the mirror? You have not seen anything good in a glimmer, have you? Right, monkeys never able to comprehend their own reflection in the mirror and so you do.

11-15-04 Alexander: crapcrapcrap�

11-15-04 mike: Why do you guys not give this up? --- The stuff posted is a disaster, -- and one wonders how a group of adults (??) can waste their time in writing so much cr ----- p.

11-15-04 SANTIA: CALL OPTIONS DELTA AIR LINES.
Strike Last
2.50 4.40

maybe is time to sell...calls...??

DELTA AIR LINES
6.90 0.06 (0.88%

Target rough estimate..(opinion please) thanks.

11-15-04 ozymiani: WEBSTER DICTIONARY:

http://www.bartleby.com/61/31/J0073...

YAWWWNNNNNN

11-14-04 banko: I am here, thanks for keeping poor oz busy during this weekend

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