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Posted by
PaxWax (Wednesday, December 12, 2001) Global Shifts Herald Reordering of Economy; Lukoil a Star |
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Mired in cash-flow analysis? Distrustful of price-earnings ratios? Bored with price-to-book values? Fed up with EPS, EBITDA and other alphabetized investment measures? Well, Babe, it's time to step out, spread your wings and start thinking big. . . real big, like balance-of-power big. Imagine you're Klemens Fuerst von Metternich, or Henry Kissinger. The first guy, as Austrian foreign minister from 1809 to 1848, shaped the post-Napoleonic Europe; the second was the architect of U.S. foreign policy from 1969 to 1976. Or even make believe you're Bismarck -- no, not the frozen capital of North Dakota -- but Otto von, 19th-century imperial German chancellor. These three guys might not have known squat about investing in stocks and bonds. But you can bet your bottom euro they would have recognized the titanic shifts in global geopolitics since Sept. 11. The transformation: China and Russia have moved closer to the West, while Turkey's geographical position, air bases and secular-Muslim status make it invaluable to the U.S. and its European allies in their war on terrorism. The catalyst: Osama bint Ladin. "In the post-Sept. 11 world, we've seen Russia and China siding with the U.S.; that's worked well for both," says Maxine Koster, a global economist at Credit Suisse First Boston. She notes that China's entry into the World Trade Organization -- in the works for many years -- went smoothly; and while Russia is just starting the process, its new Western leanings should help it. "If you're doing the right things by the big boss, he'll help you get over all the hurdles," she says. For the first time since World War II, investors are faced with a world in which the U.S., China and Russia are on the same side, notes Ms. Koster. That should damp fears of a sharp global recession, enhance global economic stability and make investments in Russia, China and Turkey more attractive. Paul Donovan, an international economist at UBS Warburg, suggests looking for parallels with the Cold War. "Official support to countries is likely to be judged on the grounds that my enemy's enemy is my friend," he says. "This clearly means that official support, government economic assistance and favorable policies -- like trade policies -- should be offered to China, Russia and Turkey by both the U.S. and the EU as key allies in the war on terror." But this is no win-win scenario: The already beleaguered Japanese economy could end up losing -- big time. "China has already been increasing its export penetration to Japan, and that is in part contributing to the deflation in Japan while putting more pressure on Japanese companies to become more efficient and price competitive," says Ms. Koster. As China's economy expands on the back of exports and the country's large domestic market, it becomes more of a threat to Japan. Assuming that China grows 8.5% a year in nominal terms, measured in dollars, for the next five years and Japan at 0.5%, CSFB economists figure that by 2007 China's economy will grow to half Japan's from a quarter now. Ms. Koster says that that, in turn, means that Chinese stocks, bonds and direct investments will begin to replace Japanese assets in "mainstream portfolios." Meanwhile, Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has supported the U.S. against the Taliban and al-Qaeda, permitting the U.S. to use Russian airspace and former Soviet republics as staging areas. "Putin has surprised people, going against the initial instincts of some of his security advisers," says Augusto Lopez-Claros, a senior international economist at Lehman Brothers. "That indicates that he is his own man and increasingly secure in his position." Then there's Russia's evolving relationship with its old adversary, NATO. "Before Sept. 11, the very idea that Russia could have a role in NATO decision-making would have been laughed at," says Mr. Lopez-Claros. "But post-Sept. 11, we see the head of NATO proposing a sort of partnership with Russia that would allow Russia to become involved in several areas, such as combating terrorism, limiting the spread of certain weapons and helping to manage peacekeeping operations." On the oil and gas front, Russia has emerged as an export rival to Saudi Arabia, "presenting itself to the West -- especially Europe -- as a reliable supplier of energy," he adds. Sure, you might argue that by agreeing to cut oil exports by 150,000 barrels a day, Russia isn't doing any favors to the recession-ridden global economy. Relax. Analysts note the amount is small and equal to what Russia would normally reduce in wintertime. Moreover, Russian growth won't threaten Western Europe the way China's will Japan. That's because while its weaponry and land mass may be big, its economy isn't. CSFB's Ms. Koster points out that the Russian economy is only 12% of Germany's. "Germans also have a lot of investment in Russia, so what is good for Russia is good for Germany Inc.," says Ms. Koster. In addition, "all of Eastern Europe could provide [Western] Europe with a large amount of cheap labor with which to compete with China and the rest of Asia." Although the economic and financial fruits from the current geopolitical metamorphosis won't fully ripen for years, no doubt some investors will want to jump the gun. One way would be to spread your risks by buying a basket of Chinese, Russian and Turkish stocks. Deborah Fuhr, a vice president at Morgan Stanley & Co., notes there is an exchange-traded fund -- or ETF, a fund that consists of a basket of stocks which can be bought and sold just like individual shares -- tied to the MSCI China Free Index, which trades on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. The fund, which began trading last week, account for about 95% of the market capitalization of so-called red-chip stocks and Class-H shares in the MSCI China Free Index. [Red chips are Hong Kong companies controlled by mainland entities, while H shares are Hong Kong-listed companies that do most of their business in China.] China Mobile, the country's major wireless operator, accounts for roughly 50% of the fund. No ETFs currently exist for Russia or Turkey, but Ms. Fuhr says that if sufficient demand materializes, no doubt some firm will create them. As for individual stocks, CSFB's top-of-the-pops include Russian oil and gas producer Lukoil, which Jonathan Garner, the firm's head of global emerging-market equity strategy, considers cheap on a price-to-cash-flow basis, and Chinese telecom-services company China Unicom. In a highly competitive field, Mr. Garner says that China Unicom's average-revenue-per-user will hold up better than China Mobile's and that "barriers to entry for the third and fourth operators are underestimated, leaving potential upside for Unicom to continue to gain market share and grow." CSFB's Turkish favorite is Migros, which operates supermarkets in Turkey, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Russia. The downside is that in the short-run, profit enhancement is limited by the lousy state of consumer demand in Turkey. But Mr. Garner says, "Positive points include very compelling valuations, and 15% of revenues come from Russian operations that are doing very well." Meanwhile, Lehman analysts are high on Russian oil and gas company Surgutneftegaz, Russian wireless telecom operator Vimpelcom and Sonera. Although it's a Finnish telecom company, Sonera has a large portfolio of assets in Turkey, which for you history buffs was known as the Ottoman Empire in the good old days. Another near-Russia bet is Italian oil-services and drilling company Saipem. It has two big projects going in the Black Sea and Kazakhstan, both of which one might argue are near-enough to Russia to count as Russian-related. Just don't tell the Turks or the Kazaks. A Lehman China favorite is China Petroleum & Chemical, or Sinopec. Joe Zhang, head of China research at UBS Warburg in Hong Kong, has no love for any of China's biggies. Instead, he likes China's mostly smaller, but more dynamic private companies, founded by the Chinese private sector as opposed to offshoots of China's government-owned behemoths. Mr. Zhang's top two are vegetable grower Chaoda Modern Agriculture (Holdings) and Xinao Gas Holdings, a natural-gas distributor. Other picks include pig and poultry production company People's Food Holdings and sausage and meat processor United Food Holdings -- both trade in Singapore -- and UTStarcom, a telecom-equipment maker that trades on the Nasdaq. Other favorites that trade in Hong Kong include Wah Sang Gas Holdings; Phoenix Satellite Television Holdings; chemical refiner China Rare Earth Holdings; Global Bio-Chem Technology Group, which makes corn starch and other biochemical products out of corn; and an orchid grower Euro-Asia Agricultural (Holdings). "All these companies have one thing in common: Management cares about their bottom line, unlike [that of] state-owned enterprises," says Mr. Zhang. "And in sectors where state-owed companies dominate, all you have to do is care to make a difference." Nonetheless, you better recognize that there are risks to taking this superpower hugfest scenario too far, too fast. One, just remember what happened to U.S.-Soviet and U.S.-Chinese relations after World War II ended. Two, recognize that the current rapprochement is a marriage of convenience; after all, both Russia and China have faced Islamic uprisings. Three, Turkey's economy -- which Lehman's Mr. Lopez-Claros says will probably contract 8% this year -- is a mess, riddled with budget problems, corruption, too much short-term debt borrowed to finance long-term projects and state interference in the economy. What's more, if Saddam Hussein is booted out and Iraq fragments, Turkey could be confronted with demands for an independent Kurdish state. Lastly, while improving official relations are an incentive to invest, "we are in a higher-risk world economy," notes UBS Warburg's Mr. Donovan. "Companies have to think not just, `is it efficient for me to invest in this country, but is it safe for me to invest in this country.'" In 1815, Charles-Maurice de Talleyrand, foreign minister in successive French governments from the Revolution to the Restoration and Metternich's rival, was asked what he did during the Revolution. He replied: "I survived." If you can say that about your portfolio after the turbulent past 21 months, you've done OK. WSJE(12/7) WEEKEND JOURNAL: Global Player: Power Investing: Geopolitics Helps Arm A Portfolio; By MICHAEL SESIT |
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