Color of the Market Archive, Page #1

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The Color of the Market has been an online meeting place for people interested in emerging market debt since 1996, and has undergone many changes in that time. We have discovered an old archive of Color of the Market messages, covering 5 months starting in late 1998. For the benefit of both old and new Bradynetters, we present this archive untouched.
Note: Back in these days, the forum software was greatly different than the Color of the Market that we are now accustomed to. Without the requirement of registration, the forum began to attract disrupters who would engage in vulgarities, name-calling, impersonation of users, and other childish hijinks. But if you can wade through the nonsense, some of the comments herein are historic, and prophetic.
Enjoy,
IDEAGlobal/BradyNet Staff

Sat Dec 26 23:28:44 EST 1998
Daniel: Please: to those who would purposely disrupt the Color of the Market... please get a life.

Sat Dec 26 23:31:28 EST 1998
Curious: Daniel, I agree!

Sun Dec 27 04:38:06 EST 1998
Alfred: 100% agreed,and we should see to it that vulgarities,insults and fakes definitely disappear,greetings & happy new year to allto all

Sun Dec 27 12:51:55 EST 1998
wally: how come suddenly i have to see all that bullshit?

Sun Dec 27 15:35:37 EST 1998
Daniel: Well, this being a public forum, it's an invitation for children, and childish adults, to try to disrupt the forum. The best strategy is to simply ignore them, and the I know the BradyNet admins will do their best to police the forums when somebody gets totally out of hand.

Mon Dec 28 08:34:22 EST 1998
JPC: Brazil will slide into a deep recession in 1999. But it should scrape through the year without devaluing the real. Rates won't come down fast, at least for a couple of months. As the benchmark rate fell to 29% from over 40% in the last two months, money started flowing out of Brazil again. An average of around $200m per day left over the last couple of weeks. Brazil has only received $10bn of the loans. It will only receive the $27bn it is eligible for next year if it meets budget targets set by the IMF

Mon Dec 28 08:38:48 EST 1998
JPC: Brazil will enter 1999 with about $47bn of foreign reserves with which it can defend the real. But local investors hold $260bn of domestic debt alone. Including the money in stocks, the amount is much larger. The more money Brazil spends defending the real, the less it has to repay sovereign debt. Investors would at some point fear a default and stop lending the government more. The price of Brazilian debt would plummet, forcing investors to sell other emerging-market debt to cover their losses. Interest rates would rise across the region, encouraging local investors to keep lending to governments.

Mon Dec 28 11:18:59 EST 1998
El Zorro = El Zero: EL ZERO: You are in denial amiga. Countries do go broke on a fairly regular basis. There are over a dozen in Africa, do you know where that is? Before you make ignorant comments, please do a little research.

Mon Dec 28 13:55:30 EST 1998
anonymous: There is a fundamental difference on this board that is not being addressed. We have traders and we have investors conversing Just because Brazil will blow up around Feb/Mar and markets will fall does not mean I should SHORT. Instead I should (and will) sell my Latam debt and buy other debt (namely short term Korea). I think there are many traders misunderstanding us investors.

Mon Dec 28 14:34:23 EST 1998
Grim Reaper: What happened to Spanklin Delano Roosevelt?

Mon Dec 28 15:19:44 EST 1998
home buyer: Anybody out there have an idea on where Interest rates will in the next 30 days

Tue Dec 29 09:16:43 EST 1998
JPC: Brazil yesterday gave investors a reminder it's not yet out of the woods. Daily capital outflows, a good indicator of local investors' confidence in Brazilian assets, hit $950 million late in trade; significantly above the $300 million level that has been the norm.

Tue Dec 29 09:22:11 EST 1998
Cristel M.: "Today is the last day of a grace period during which Russia could legally still make the payment without being in default." Can someone comment on this ?

Tue Dec 29 10:45:19 EST 1998
Paolo: They missed payment on Dec 2, they had 15 business days (up to today) to make the payment. They wanted to pay in IANs, which was only possible if 95% of holders agreed. This has not happened despite what the Russian claims (only 2/3 needed). Given all this, and as logic dictates, Prins and especially IANs are up today.

Tue Dec 29 13:06:29 EST 1998
anonymous: BRAZIL C BONDS -- 40 HANDLE IN BY NEXT MONTH< AND IT LOOKS LIKE WE ARE GONNA GET THERE FASTER THAN WE ALL THOUGHT> WATCH FOR THE PANIC TRADE IN THE NEXT 2 WEEKS.

Tue Dec 29 13:11:45 EST 1998
anonymous: Paulo -- Forget about prins and ians. It is not Russian debt. They will never pay. Even the reformers advocate repudiation.

Tue Dec 29 13:47:42 EST 1998
anonymous: The required 95% of foreign investors votes to support the MinFin debts restructuring scheme developed for the London Club can't be collected today. But still the default hardly could be declared on the back of negotiations being in process and 72% votes approving the Russian offers.

Tue Dec 29 16:41:48 EST 1998
anonymous: "Trading in BRazil today turned in function of the strong loss (in outflows) yesterday. Investors opted to sell or wait-and-see,"

Tue Dec 29 16:48:33 EST 1998
Yian: " BRAZIL C BONDS -- 40 HANDLE IN BY NEXT MONTH" What is a " handle" ?

Tue Dec 29 22:01:36 EST 1998
krashman: Yian- A "handle" is jargon for the full dollar part of a quote. A "40 handle" means that the bond will trade with a 40 dollar price(vs 59 today on "C" bonds). This also means 40% of par, or a retest of the lows. Jargon is what bond traders and wannabees use to make up for a lack of an advanced degree.

Wed Dec 30 02:34:14 EST 1998
wally: bravo krashman!

Wed Dec 30 15:36:48 EST 1998
anonymous: Sorry -- Handle means big figure, i.e., in the 40's. A dollar price of 49 has a 40 handle. Watch out! They are gonna take your money if you don't understand this.

Wed Dec 30 16:58:03 EST 1998
anonymous: Krashman (CRASH MAN? DUH!)-- U R A TRUE IDIOT.

Wed Dec 30 21:42:02 EST 1998
anonymous: Vende la Casa!

Thu Dec 31 00:18:10 EST 1998
Cheetah: y los cortos en Venezuela, weren't DCB's going to be at 50 ??? y si Brazil fuera a un CRASH no hubiera subido hoy... too many SHORTS wanting to cover, and now that the EURO will bring out European demand next week... yes it must be nice to be SHORT !! shorts will be amazoned... to everybody happy new year !

Thu Dec 31 02:29:49 EST 1998
andrewq: Hey friends, today the color of the market is "blue" . The EURO is almost here ! look at www.europa.eu.int/eurobirth and get the euro introduction schedule. I'll post some other data when/if I get them. greetings

Thu Dec 31 03:19:46 EST 1998
anonymous: Cheetah: Right! Europeans are going to rush out and finance Brazil and Venezuela. Keep dreaming, my friend. Brazil and Vennie in for a big credit crunch in the next few months. In fact, they're in one now. The Euro will only hurt the dollar block countries. Not one country in the western hemisphere in current account surplus. Dollar now has competition and dollar block in trouble. Look at it today -- weak against yen with Japan in depression and U.S. growing at above trend. Houston, we have a problemo!!!!! Brazil, hang on tight!!!!!! So, I guess you will be selling me you bad position in about a month or two.

Thu Dec 31 04:57:14 EST 1998
Spadolini: "I don't think you gain very much by sitting there, wringing your hands and trying to figure out how awful it all is. What you need to do ... is to try to get the things done that will getthe best response in the situation." (Robert Rubin)

Thu Dec 31 08:44:32 EST 1998
andrewq: For the records: 1 EURO = 1,95583 DM. Rates approved for all participating countries mirror tightly the central parities set last May.

Thu Dec 31 09:28:08 EST 1998
Spadolini: I'm not overly optimistic about the success of the euro within the Europian Union, as no member's governmet has reduced costs of doing business within its border sufficiently.

Thu Dec 31 12:39:57 EST 1998
anonymous: Europe is a complete JOKE: Recall the words of Jock Sure-rock after calling for elections in April 1997. And I quote, "We need to insure a strong Europe to check American imperialism." Great New World Order, wouldn't you say perm-Bulls?

Thu Dec 31 12:43:55 EST 1998
anonymous: Spamdolini -- I don't think Rubin would just sit there. He would SELL big time. Bu the way, he is trying to sell Washington, but Clinton won't let him leave. He wants out Big Time. Isn't that odd? The stock market is up 20% again for the 4th straight year and the markets are so fragile that Rubin can't retire and move back to Wall Street because of fears of a stock market crash. That that sounds like a real strong market!!!!!!!!!!

Thu Dec 31 15:46:09 EST 1998
Spadolini: anonymous, be a doll, tell us about the Plunge Protection Team, as you are in the know.

Thu Dec 31 17:32:55 EST 1998
anonymous: Spamdolino -- whadda you wanna know? investors will never have to take another loss with the Rubin team around. Why not let markets clear as they preach to the Japanese and the rest of the world. Have you ate at the IMF cafeteria? Almost every item is subsidized by at least 40%. Now isn't that hypocritical that the IMF employees are subsidized while they are telling to cut aid to the poor? Go figure. But don't worry, Greenspan will never let the market fall again. Savor this, my friend, you are experiencing financial history in the making.

Thu Dec 31 17:39:12 EST 1998
wally: I am getting bearish.

Thu Dec 31 18:54:51 EST 1998
Spadolini: anonymous, give us all the names of the Plunge Protection Team's members,pls. What's Slick's role. You know well what we -the unwashed masses- want to know. Your views are the more appealing the politer your style. The parasites in the Bretton Woods institutions won't differ much from EU Brussels, Beijing's Communist Party etc. Make parasites not war. Compris?

Fri Jan 1 04:30:53 EST 1999
wally: bearish commentator faked my name.

Fri Jan 1 17:03:32 EST 1999
anonymous: Spaldo -- good point. Rubin want a SUMMERS vacation. But it is too arrogant and not very well groomed. That is the battle being fought at 15th and Penn. Erskine Bowles anyone? Maybe Stiglitz.

Fri Jan 1 17:05:15 EST 1999
wally: Will the Real Wally please stand up. Bullish or Bearish?

Sat Jan 2 00:42:21 EST 1999
Cheetah: everyone knows Rubin wants out, so ? clinton was impeached, so ? if gore were presi w/o rubin usa will chug along, they still have abby cohen. asia crashed, so ? next year they will grow. russia defaulted, so ? some order will come. chavez won in venezuela, so? he seems more in touch with menem than fidel. brazil only has 40bb in reserves plus 40bb in aid, so ? as if everybody was interested in converting reais to usd, 3/4 of population doesn't care (150bb reais) equities have to be sold to convert (prices do go down and reach levels that people don't sell)etc so 40bb plus 40bb will do just fine. LETS SEE what OTHER DISASTER is coming up ??? seems like credit crunch is more than 4 months old... ECU slowdown ? don't count on it... Greenspan passing away ?? Yelstin who cares... AMAZON making money ??? NOW THAT IS A PROBLEM !!! How can we compare the valuation of AMAZON with Telebras if they make money ? That would make me bearish...

Sat Jan 2 04:48:35 EST 1999
wally: neither bullish nor bearish but very very cautious abd selective for the next six month.(the real wally).

Sat Jan 2 10:06:03 EST 1999
Spadolini: "Instead of flooding the entire economy with liquidity, and thereby increasing the danger of inflation, the Fed could support the stock market directly by buying market averages in the futures market, thus stabilizing the market as a whole ... the stock market certainly is not too big for the Fed to handle." (Robert Heller, former Fed Governor)

Sat Jan 2 13:04:33 EST 1999
anonymous: Spaldo -- when did Heller say that? He should advise the Japanese. Did you see Rubin's article in Barrons? Ain't goin' nowhere. See, my friend, he's afraid this bubble is gonna come unwound. I listened to Rubin -- saying the U.S. would stand behind Russia -- and bought the globals on the "moral hazard" trade. These guyz at Treasury can't be trusted they will cut and run. And listen to Rubin's rhetoric on Brazil now. I think they cut and run on Brazil in Q1. What we learned in Russia is that the package is only real if they don't have to draw it. If Brazil has to draw say another 10 bn, they cut and run. So get ready for some action in Q1. First 2-3 weeks strong then we tank.

Sat Jan 2 13:06:24 EST 1999
The fake wally: To the real wally - you're a good man!

Sat Jan 2 13:14:21 EST 1999
anonymous: Spaldo -- each disaster is not isolated. In fact, this whole Asian contagion and Mexico crisis can be traced back to the '87 crash when Japan failed to drain the liquidity it pumped in after the crash and created huge asset bubble. Greenie did and drove Libo to 10% and Mexico to the table to ask for debt relief and the U.S. in recession. Japan gives away yen in mid '90's and the Boyz get levered in emerging markets. Japan banks loose capital and begin cutting lines to Asia thus reversing the decade of global liqudity. The global liquidity is gone -- that is why dollar is now weak. This rally is based on 8 stocks in the S&P. Just as it took 7 days to create the world, the world won't end overnight.

Sat Jan 2 17:37:41 EST 1999
Spadolini: I understand we are at the mercy of the big market movers, as the regular Wally put it recently. Fed, Treasury, White House's National Economic Council plus a bunch of banks involved for the "land of the free". The rallies have been engineered to allow big boys to sell into. "Free marketeers" gave that opportunity. Where is the differnce to Japan? Yasuhiro holds saving accounts; Joe is invested in mutual funds(?). -Heller quote from 11/98.

Sun Jan 3 00:34:28 EST 1999
Bob Rubin: You guys are so stressed out. So what if Brazil has to let it's currency devalue more quickly. As if the world were to end or as if C Bonds won't be serviced - give me a break ! I agree with Cheetah higher chance that Amazon will never make money, never ! than Brazil defeaulting. Latins are not Russians !! They are much more serious and responsible.

Sun Jan 3 04:22:31 EST 1999
wally: bob: i agree that latins are not russians, however they all defaulted in 82 and 89 (when nick invented the brady bonds). these defaults were related to international bank debt only and no private investor was ever hurt until the russian PRIN default.

Sun Jan 3 05:24:59 EST 1999
Spadolini: Bob Rubin, the Russian's signature used to be sacred in the past.

Sun Jan 3 07:55:26 EST 1999
wally: spadolini: but in the past they never had a freaking banker (kiryenko) as premier who started with cheating by emitting eurobonds in june and july and declaring gko default in august.

Sun Jan 3 10:46:18 EST 1999
Spadolini: an accident after an unknown blueprint, which we have to figure out yet. -Prefer the regular to the diet one.

Sun Jan 3 22:44:50 EST 1999
anonymous: Look, Wally. The Latins defaulted in the 80's because all their debt was bank debt. They will default in 1999 on bonds because all their debt is bonds. If thay can't pay, they can't pay, no matter what the instrumentation. And Spaldo, the Japanese banks hold equities and that is what helped drive them in negative equity and set off the Asian crisis. Watch how the Euro strengthens and the U.S. bull market will be questioned. The U.S. is truly and emerging market!!!!!!! Amazon will never make money and Brazil will devalue. We have learned from Russia -- COUNTRIES DON'T DEVALUE, THEY DEFAULT THEN DEVALUE.. Devaluation falls on the local population and default falls on the external creditors. Can you imagine if Russia tried to pay off the GKO's through monetization?? Lenin and Stalin would be back in the Kremlin and the Ruble would be at 2,999,999,999,999 r/$.. The same will happen in Brazil.

Mon Jan 4 03:48:51 EST 1999
Spadolini: anonymous, you are not cynical reg RUS: "...Stalin would be back ...". Our friend Optimist is afraid of the nationalistic governor of Krasnoyarsk (Lebed) as fresh civil liberties would be cut (e.g. travelling abroad). But Optimist stressed the argument debts would be serviced as it used to be in the soviet era.

Mon Jan 4 05:33:56 EST 1999
wally: to set the record straight. total russian external debt ~ usd 152 billion. total debt service 1999 usd 17.5 billion (this includes IMF, london club, paris club, etc.). total eurobonds principal usd 16.2 billion; total debt service eurobonds 1999 usd 1.65 billion equivalent to less than 10% of total debt service. make your own assumption of an eventual eurobond default which would catapult russia out of any possibility of new loans.

Mon Jan 4 11:05:13 EST 1999
Bobby "the Hedge" Rubin: WASHINGTON, Jan 4 (Reuters) - Brazil, recipient of a $42 billion international rescue plan last year, must press ahead with its fiscal reform plans, restoring discipline to the economy, Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin said on Monday. RUBIN STARTING TO DISTANCE..

Mon Jan 4 11:06:58 EST 1999
Fred: Wally.. I agree. Russia eurobonds money good.. But do the same calculatiion on Brazil and Argentina and Venezuela.

Mon Jan 4 11:10:46 EST 1999
anonymous: Spald -- you are missing my point. Countries with large domestic debt that are under pressure make a choice on who will bear the pain. Local domestics -- then print the money, currency collaspes and countries moves to hyperinflation -- ALA BULGARIA in 1996. Or, Default and let external creditors bear the pain. What will Brazil do?

Mon Jan 4 11:29:38 EST 1999
Spadolini: anonymous, re Bulgaria: FLIRB for example was an excellent instrument since Oct. 1996. We are talking about debts denominated in "hard" currency. Please, get an appropriate name, you are a regular now.

Mon Jan 4 11:45:41 EST 1999
John: Spaldo- So has Russia '07 since lows. Prob best performing asset out there. However, no difference in terms of price action.. Prins rallied when official default declared. So if Brazil defaults on Dom Debt -- Cbonds go to 20. If the currency collaspes cbonds go to 30. Recall at the beginning of 1996, Bul Flirbs were traded 300 bps tighter than Vennie and moved out 800 wider than Vennie Flirbs.. Bulgaria had very little external debt -- bonds. Bulgaria was smart to first "burn" domestic debt away through inflation. Brazil hasn't.. It has way to much domestic debt and way too much external debt.. In other words, BRAZIL IS SCREWED.. and can't grow without a flood of fresh new money that ain't comin' in.

Mon Jan 4 12:16:06 EST 1999
wally: fred: i am too scared to do that calculation on brazil or venezuela; the ratios might be quite disappointing. however i refuse too make any predictions as the markets have no logic (never had!). look at today's "euroland" stock markets. ridiculous without any fundamentals considered. but .......

Mon Jan 4 12:43:26 EST 1999
John: wally -- if you aren't going to make predictions, I guess you are not trading or investing. You must have a view to make money.

Mon Jan 4 12:44:56 EST 1999
anonymous: RIO DE JANEIRO, Jan 3 (Reuters) - Billionaire financier George Soros said in an interview published Sunday that Brazil was the big headache for the financial community at the moment, but that Russia and Indonesia were worse off overall. "Brazil is in the eye of the storm. It is the most problematic situation in the world in the short term," Soros told Brazilian weekly news magazine Veja.

Mon Jan 4 12:48:21 EST 1999
Spadolini: John, you'll feel lonesome at "Le Cirque 2000" Restaurant if your predictions should come true. The lender of last resort function is a public good. Hope to see you au Cirque in NYC with as many friends as possible.

Mon Jan 4 12:56:28 EST 1999
John: Spaldo -- read you history. The Fed eased in 1927 for ease pressures on the global fixed exchange rate pressures. Read Lawrence Lindsey's "Economic Puppetmasters" to get a sense of what Greenspan and Co. are thinking. And I can assure they are scared to death!! Hey, but don't worry, be happy. Fundamentals suck but Wall Street sez its going higer. You're right, all my short seller boyz will be at Cirque buying apples from all the perma-Bulls... Ha!!

Mon Jan 4 13:25:16 EST 1999
anonymous: John = Ralf Vielhaber

Mon Jan 4 13:49:32 EST 1999
anonymous: so what ?

Mon Jan 4 14:06:39 EST 1999
Dyadya Venya: I am fairly bearish for 1999, and agree with some of the points that Anonymous make regarding Brazil, if they need the money - look out below; NO package is big enough to save a sovereign. The bigger problem I see is that Risk Aversion for 1999 is multi-faceted. Y2K problems are unquantifiable, commodity prices are at historic lows and devals to help in global competitiveness are driving the world's deflation. If we focus in on the fundamentals of the countries alone they may be long term buys, but you had better be prepared to hold through worse liquidity and sharp drops on prices.

Mon Jan 4 14:07:30 EST 1999
Cheetah: Venezuela stats are ok considering oil prices, they are closer to fixing bolivar to the usd/ecu than to devalue. Only political noise to bother the week of stomach (John & Anony), who are getting nervous that their shorts in Brazil & Veni are not working out (Veni DCB's at 66 not 50... remember the second 7 points against your short position really hurt...)

Mon Jan 4 14:15:32 EST 1999
anonymous: so what? sell.

Mon Jan 4 14:19:34 EST 1999
anonymous: Doesn't anyone get it? Countries are not going to compress growth forever in order to pay external debt. "If we don't grow, we don't pay" -- Carlos Salinas, 1988 Mexico Presidential campaign.

Mon Jan 4 14:49:47 EST 1999
Uri V.: Potential euro headaches and worries about what effect the Millennium Bug could have on one-year derivatives trades are likely to keep the bond market's technophobes nervous. Redenomination of European government debt will leave plenty of odd-sized issues knocking around the market, and investors are likely to be eager to tidy-up their portfolios. A flurry of small trades will only add to the volatility set to rule in the days following the euro's launch. Conversion mistakes will inevitably occur. Up to a fifth of euro trades could fail because of technical difficulties, according to bankers' estimates. That should persuade many traders to tread carefully next week, with volume set to be light.

Mon Jan 4 15:39:46 EST 1999
Dyadya Venya: Uri V...how could I have forgotten the Euro?! The junk pipeline in europe will also compete for the hearts and minds of the former cross-over EM debt buyer. I think that the flows of buy-backs, portfolio unwinds (hedge funds and banks) are going to rule flows. Seeing sourcing flows will be like the late 80's and will be the difference between trading 60% right or 60% wrong. Anybody think that EM sov's will try to issue Euro denominated debt?

Mon Jan 4 15:44:37 EST 1999
anonymous: Dyadya Venya = Uri V. = Ralfie

Mon Jan 4 16:17:43 EST 1999
anonymous: Yes. Euro will the currency of choice over the next year.

Tue Jan 5 01:19:08 EST 1999
anonymous: Congratulations to Bradynet for bringing together an exciting group of people - as knowledgeable as they are strident in their views. Contributions to this forum are often more interesting than certain pay sites, such as MMS Globalmarkets, where you essentially get rehashed newswire stories (indexed on Bradynet), and run-of-the-mill analysis posing as prescient.

Tue Jan 5 01:33:36 EST 1999
Count Montezcuma: To Mr. Anonymous (shy or bad youthful experiences ?) Salinas paid Mexico's debt and put the country on a growth route, similar to the majority of Latin American countries. Some deval and political noise will not change the broad course. Russian experiment is on the other extreme, do not compare.

Tue Jan 5 01:38:15 EST 1999
Cheetah: To my favorite short holders, I wish you luck with Brazil's congress... maybe on friday you will wish your lenders had forced you to cover.... also careful with Veni's financial minister this weekend - debt buyback and fixed currency to the USD/ECU... Veni DCB's at 70 next week.

Tue Jan 5 01:49:36 EST 1999
anonymous: Come on "anonymous" alias Spanky (really Ralf): "If we don't grow, we don't pay" -- Carlos Salinas, 1988 Mexico Presidential campaign. - at least post something new !!!

Tue Jan 5 05:52:03 EST 1999
Spadolini: john who, save any compliment for your tested wife.

Tue Jan 5 08:08:59 EST 1999
Dyadya Venya: What do the Bears in this forum think of short term Brazilian corporate paper? I have heard that electric utility paper in 1-month to 3-month mats yields 10% in dollars. Where are good bank CD rates? When Brazil skids, could these non-sovereign, corporates or finance name avoid default because the private sector is fairly healthy in Brazil?...or would we have a replay of the Russian mess?

Tue Jan 5 08:28:34 EST 1999
anonymous: good morning, Ralf. Ask your therapist and leave us alone.

Tue Jan 5 08:36:44 EST 1999
anonymous: The risk in Brazil as I see it is that capital outflows will get dangerously out of hand and the gov't will go back to the old system of restricting currency movements out of the country.

Tue Jan 5 09:06:37 EST 1999
G: i am wondering how u guys pay the rent of your apartment?

Tue Jan 5 11:02:07 EST 1999
anonymous: G: get lost... "My view is that the market is oversold and I'm looking for a reassessment. I'm looking for markets to go higher,"

Tue Jan 5 11:16:54 EST 1999
anonymous: O.K. -- If we don't grow, WE DEFAULT

Tue Jan 5 11:18:53 EST 1999
John: Spaldo - why are you insulting me? And, my tested wife. Stick to business and don't get personal.

Tue Jan 5 12:50:16 EST 1999
anonymous: d

Tue Jan 5 13:21:50 EST 1999
EL Zoro: Get your logic straight regarding Mexico and other EM Anonymous (Ralf to all of us by now): If we don't pay we don't get additional investments if we don't get additional investments WE DON'T GROW !!!.

Tue Jan 5 16:02:29 EST 1999
anonymous: I think that we will all be pleasantly surprised by the performance of Brazilian assets during the first half of 99. A near forced 7-10% widening of the reias band in 2H99 will cause the shit to hit the proverbial fan and create a number of great buying opportunities a la Septmeber 1998. Herds of people are so easily spooked.

Tue Jan 5 17:00:20 EST 1999
anonymous: a

Tue Jan 5 17:23:02 EST 1999
RJ : Don't the Brazil '08s look cheap relative to the '27s with a 150bp spread differential? What about the EI relative to the C bond? It looks cheap too, no?

Tue Jan 5 18:48:08 EST 1999
Che Guevara: I still remember Perot talking about the giant sucking sound as jobs would leave to cheaper wage countries. It seems that capital costs far outway cheap labor considerations for now. If it remains this way why should poor countries play the game of free trade? Because they have no other choice! Maybe but dont be surprised if new power blocks emerge a la Euro (Mercosur, Asia)to lower capital costs by having a stronger common currency.The IMF and other well wishers only seem interested in doing something when the Dow goes down. Ironically a DOW crash or stagnation might prove good in the long run, (if poor countries survive the short run). Otherwise sooner or later Free Trade (which never really existed anyway) will start to die....and...who knows....

Tue Jan 5 20:19:40 EST 1999
anonymous: Come on, El Zorro. These countries are experiencing net negative transfers (principal + interest), they ain't getting any new investments now. Korea defaulted to banks and they are experiencing massive net inflows right now. Get with it!! Your rhetoric sounds like what the banks told Poland if they got debt relief on their interest arrears. And, for all those out there: The only RALF here is me RALPHING C Bonds at 65.

Tue Jan 5 20:23:29 EST 1999
anonymous: Russian 11's of 2018 --> 41% current yield: These puppies will be the best performing bond in the world this year.

Tue Jan 5 21:32:54 EST 1999
anonymous: hallo Ralfie, Du musst uns nicht andauernd mit Deinen Gesabberenerven, Du kleiner Hobbyspekulant

Tue Jan 5 21:35:16 EST 1999
Fidel Castro: Sorry Che Guevara but we were defeated long time ago by the free markets, only fools and those trying to justify schizophrenic claims still believe in us

Tue Jan 5 22:47:06 EST 1999
Tarzan: Hey El Zorro how is it going with Catherine Zeta-Jones ? Not even I had it that good. Just back from the Amazon and I bot some corporates: Sabesp, Ford Brazil and Globopar also took up on a recomendation by some Aztec friends and bot some INnova and Iusacel... When will the short covering begin ??? Want some Venezuelan 18's before the rally... any sellers ?

Tue Jan 5 22:51:21 EST 1999
Margarita Lalinda: Please some corporate recomendations in Latin America - want to buy quickly !! before prices continue up, difficult to buy any bonds this week. No russia pls, not serious.

Wed Jan 6 00:58:14 EST 1999
Pepe Ellarguito: THE RALLY has begun just take whatever offers you get !!!

Wed Jan 6 01:15:46 EST 1999
Petrov B.: Hearing IMF going on its knees to Russia. Time to kiss and make up. IMF knows it won't get paid 4b in principal this so looking for a soft program to rollover payments. Also note World Bank now taking lead as lending continues to Russia. Upshot: IMF and Russia to kiss and make-up. And Europe now taking about some aid to Russia. Prepare for liftoff in the globals...

Wed Jan 6 04:18:57 EST 1999
Spadolini: any "dirty trick" is welcome to protect RUS from disintegration. Thanks, Petrov B.

Wed Jan 6 08:24:08 EST 1999
You Tarzan Me Jane: Hey Tarzan, what's your scoop on Sabesp. My understanding is that the company could be facing a serious liquidity problem. Globo is a good call. What about CSN?

Wed Jan 6 09:14:30 EST 1999
Clinton: To those who challenge the dollar as THE major currency reserve of the world. Can Euroland show numbers like this: " The strong U.S. economy has produced a larger than expected budget surplus of $76 billion for fiscal year 1999"

Wed Jan 6 10:40:54 EST 1999
Bob Rubin: Clinton you sound like Pedro Aspe -- The U.S. current account deficit is larger than ever! Get with it Bubba, exchange rates determined by Balance of Payments, not phoney fiscal accounts. South Korea had a budget surplus. How you gonna make money when you leave office as you are so stupid? How is Danny Williams?

Wed Jan 6 11:07:35 EST 1999
anonymous: i have to share something with all of you. u all need a cold shower. after that, you get dressed and go and get a job. any job. if u believe that what u r doing has value, then u r smoking something illigal. wake up.

Wed Jan 6 11:12:20 EST 1999
anonymous: judging by the mistakes,you lost yours,or you are from G�tersloh

Wed Jan 6 11:15:55 EST 1999
anonymous: I didn't loose any job, i lost money because of some idiots like yourself who think they know what they are doing just because they can speak spanish or russian.

Wed Jan 6 11:22:00 EST 1999
anonymous: sorry friend,but losing money belongs to the business and he who says he never lost any money is a liar,spanish & russian are helpful though

Wed Jan 6 11:22:00 EST 1999
anonymous: life is better without fox-letter

Wed Jan 6 11:27:34 EST 1999
anonymous: Hey dumbass - if you lost money b/c of the advice that some russian speaking charlatan gave you, then you have no one to blame but yourself. these markets aren't for fools who either 1) don't understand the inherent risks in an emerging market investment or - more importantly - 2) are too lazy to do their own homework.

Wed Jan 6 11:28:47 EST 1999
anonymous: get a job. A REAL JOB.

Wed Jan 6 11:32:32 EST 1999
anonymous: a)das erz�hlst Du schon seit Wochen und b)wir wollten doch keine Beleidigungen c)die Gewinne �bersteigen die Verluste um ein Vielfaches

Wed Jan 6 11:35:37 EST 1999
anonymous: your <<russian speaking charlatans>> told me to buy the RusFed28 at 16 and I did,I do not want to make comments on certain newsletters now

Wed Jan 6 11:46:02 EST 1999
anonymous: The Rus Fed 28 is now quoted around 32% - so what's your problem?

Wed Jan 6 11:48:47 EST 1999
anonymous: the problem is the discussion not the bond

Wed Jan 6 11:52:12 EST 1999
anonymous: and insults like <<dumbass>> and <<fools>>!!We,everybody should abstian from such remarks,if you like insulting people go to http://messages.yahoo.com/?action=q&board=DJT or http://messages.yahoo.com/?action=q&board=MO regards to all

Wed Jan 6 12:08:03 EST 1999
anonymous: the cozy atmosphere of the colours were devastated by crazy Ralf from konigswinter (Germany)

Wed Jan 6 12:12:24 EST 1999
anonymous: ok,but he is welcome if he does not insult people because if all all agreed would be kind of boring,don't you think???

Wed Jan 6 12:13:12 EST 1999
anonymous: boring,of couse,sorry

Wed Jan 6 12:14:26 EST 1999
anonymous: of course.......oh boy

Wed Jan 6 12:17:35 EST 1999
wally: what has happended to this forum ???

Wed Jan 6 12:22:33 EST 1999
Dyadya Venya: Has anybody been watching vol levels for Brady's? I just saw 2wk calls at 15% vol. Doesn't that seem cheap? Also the anonymous crew could at least put some name in....

Wed Jan 6 12:26:49 EST 1999
Fred: Dyadya Venya is interesting,where did you find that????

Wed Jan 6 12:41:03 EST 1999
wally: petrov: who told the imf goes on it's knees to moscow to make up? as far as i know, maslyukov goes to washington. reading too many fairy tales?

Wed Jan 6 12:44:00 EST 1999
Bubba: Sorry Bob Rubin but you're fired for reason of stupidity !!!, exchange rates are determined just like any other commodities, by supply and demand not by balance of payments, and by my last estimate the greenback is very much wanted.

Wed Jan 6 12:54:25 EST 1999
Spadolini: one of the tales runs: IMF is considering lending to countries that have defaulted on debts to banks and bond holders The rule change is meant to enable IMF to aid RUS despite the nation's default. But, in reality, the IMF were simply protect- ting its bureaucracy.

Wed Jan 6 12:56:46 EST 1999
Fred: 100%right and they have already borrowed so much money to Russia that the loss would be gigantic in case of default

Wed Jan 6 13:21:25 EST 1999
Omar: Maybe the IMF is planning to "make an exemption" in Russia because of US & EU national security issues, which also plays nice into the IMF bureaucracy.

Wed Jan 6 13:31:14 EST 1999
RJ: the imf stands to lose even more credibility if it does give russia more aid, especially when any more funds would likely do little to shore up russia's economy. i think the imf needs to find a problem that they can turn into a 'success story' (hopefully brazil). russia needs to collect some taxes. i don't think that the strategic threat that russia poses with its nuclear capabilities will not be diminished by more imf funds.

Wed Jan 6 14:02:17 EST 1999
RJ: ur. what i meant to say was "i don't think that the strategic threat that russia poses with its nuclear capabilities will be diminished by more imf funds.'

Wed Jan 6 14:36:00 EST 1999
Omar: Good point RJ, I agree that the nuclear threat will not be diminished with IMF funds, the Russians need fiscal discipline first. Greetings

Wed Jan 6 14:56:50 EST 1999
Bob Rubin: Bubba - U r are bigger fool than I though. The Balance of Payments is the supply and demand of the FX market.. Please take an Econ 101 class.

Wed Jan 6 14:58:49 EST 1999
M. Camdy: RJ - how do define more aid. Postive net disbursements? Postive resource transfers? Negative transfers? Please do not use generalities.

Wed Jan 6 15:08:06 EST 1999
Bubba: Balance of Payments = FX supply and demand ???, How about FX demand to protect against unstable political/economic environment like in Russia or to protect against inept government policies like in some LatAm's, these people couldn't give a royal f... about the US balance of payments and still demand our greenback. Bobby, I think you were smoking too much dope while taking Econ 101, I'm glad I fired you.

Wed Jan 6 15:12:49 EST 1999
RJ: M Camdy - hard currency disbursements.

Wed Jan 6 15:39:51 EST 1999
Pele: Minas Gerais action is an extremely dangerous precedent.

Wed Jan 6 15:58:53 EST 1999
anonymous: Itamar Franco should be shot.

Wed Jan 6 16:20:26 EST 1999
anonymous: the ruskies are our friendskies

Wed Jan 6 16:23:48 EST 1999
RV: the ruskies are our friendskies GO BACK TO SCHOOL,FRIENDSKI!!!!

Wed Jan 6 16:26:38 EST 1999
Bob Rubin: Bubba, you stupid fool!! That is called capital flight and is the short term capital flows item or resident lending abroad in the Balance of Payments. How can I do a trade with you? I wanna take your money.

Wed Jan 6 16:28:30 EST 1999
anonymous: STOP THE INSULTS,WE MUST COMMUNICATE CORRECTLY,THIS IS NOT YAHOO BOARD, ok!!!!!

Wed Jan 6 16:29:03 EST 1999
Petrov B.: IMF/World Bank to announce "new approach" toward Russia. More support for "safety net" spending. Announcement shortly.

Wed Jan 6 16:30:21 EST 1999
Rodney King: can we all get along! i really said, "can we all get long"

Wed Jan 6 17:00:00 EST 1999
Trouble: where do all you lame asses complaining about language and friendliness spend your waking hours? trading floors or nursing homes?

Wed Jan 6 17:04:35 EST 1999
anonymous: nursing homes,asshole

Wed Jan 6 17:05:53 EST 1999
anonymous: can't even spell correctly

Wed Jan 6 17:09:08 EST 1999
anonymous: +49.2244.81310 +49.2244.912310

Wed Jan 6 17:13:37 EST 1999
anonymous: if Ralfie had some brains,which unfortunately isn't the case,he would have some ideas to get his deadbeat fuchsbriefe discussion board on track......with our help of course

Wed Jan 6 17:15:03 EST 1999
Uri V.: good idea,its too quiet now

Wed Jan 6 18:58:16 EST 1999
f__cked for ruskies: What will be the chance to receive june cupon payment in Ru-IANS??WHAT HAPPENS if they admited default on Principal?.thank you for the comments.

Wed Jan 6 22:25:37 EST 1999
Bubba: Bobby, you probably haven't figured out that a currency value is basically an expression of confidence on the issuer such as our greatest Federal Reserve, balance of payments and other numerical considerations aplly but are not the only determinants. I forgive you anyway. I can't trade with you because it would be too easy and boring, however if you want to take something from me i'll give you the same thing that i gave Monica, just say "AHHHHHHHH".

Wed Jan 6 22:29:54 EST 1999
Trouble Stopper: I don't spend my waking hours at a trading floor or a nursing home Mr.Trouble, I spend them screwing you wife while you waste our time posting messages that have no relevance in a good board like this. Get lost

Wed Jan 6 23:00:19 EST 1999
Uri V.: Some traders raised questions as to whether the debt moratorium would cover outstanding Eurobonds issued by Minas Gerais.

Wed Jan 6 23:14:37 EST 1999
Bubba: Bobby, fortunately for you the cesorship erased my last message that addressed your petty arguments and childish language. Sorry for the insults to all other participants. My point however is still true: a currency value is the ultimate expression of confidence on the issuer, numerical factors apply but are not the only determinants.

Wed Jan 6 23:17:30 EST 1999
anonymous: GOOD CLEANING JOB BradyNet !!!. Thanks from all of us who come here to exchange serious opinions.

Wed Jan 6 23:28:45 EST 1999
anonymous: There will be a lot more of this to come and it obviously isn't good news.

Wed Jan 6 23:28:51 EST 1999
anonymous: There will be a lot more of this to come and it obviously isn't good news.

Wed Jan 6 23:35:36 EST 1999
Uri V.: If Minas Gerais doesn't pay its debt, the central government's revenue could fall, threatening the country' efforts to cut by almost half its $64 billion budget deficit this year. The states account for more than half of the country's budget shortfall.

Wed Jan 6 23:46:49 EST 1999
Xuxa: THATS IT, "no more funds for Brazil" (Rubin), "forget about the emergency treasury funds" (Greenspan), BUT BUT - "hey guy's, DONT WORRY, Itamar is my kind of guy, I know how to take care of him, Paula Jones is on her way to Minas Geraes" (Clinton)

Wed Jan 6 23:49:56 EST 1999
Swiss Banker: So, Itamar was short C-Bonds and getting squeeezed, that does NOT give him the right to try to cover his losses with these antics. Payments will be reinstated today.

Thu Jan 7 00:31:03 EST 1999
Phantom: This is the beginning of the end... the dark period is amongst us... no refuge to be found... all is lost ... there shall not be any more bids.

Thu Jan 7 00:31:08 EST 1999
Bob Rubin: Bubba- Wrong, again!!!! Currencies, as all assets, are determined by supply and demand. The demand for FX is either outflows in the current and capital accounts and the supply is inflows through the current or capital account. I rec that you read Ann Krueger's book "Exchange Rate Determination".. And don't fool yourself, the dollar is a fundamentally weak currency and is propped up only by higher U.S. rates. The U.S. has run a cummulative current account deficit in the past 15 years of close to $2 Trn -- 30% of GDP. And by the way, Venezuela is the only net creditor in the Western Hemisphere. So we will see where the dollar is in about 2 years.. If you're still in office. And i hope i am long gone by then!!!

Thu Jan 7 00:46:28 EST 1999
Cojonciano: Welcome back Phantom, maybe you shorts are right and a Brazil blowup (deval ?) is on its way... BUT I still don't think there will be defaults on any quality credits.

Thu Jan 7 02:47:16 EST 1999
test: test

Thu Jan 7 03:04:06 EST 1999
C(ojon: Message below is falsified. Who is the faker? (Is it you Ralfie?)Reporting back from vacation. Greetings.

Thu Jan 7 03:46:23 EST 1999
G: sometimes i am wondering why do u care to prove that u r right and the others are wrong. if u believe at your rationale, dont waste time with morons(myself included), go make money and live happily ever after. end of the story. the rest is waste of time. talking about right and wrong in trading is stupid. there is only one indicator of being right:your bank account. by the way, i still think that u should get a REAL job.

Thu Jan 7 04:17:06 EST 1999
Bigaccount: G, congratulations, you found the (G-)spot.

Thu Jan 7 05:26:15 EST 1999
Spadolini: the burning desire to be particularly acknowledged for brilliant analytical and prognostical skills could exceed even the $ argument. -welcome back regular cciano!

Thu Jan 7 08:28:46 EST 1999
anonymous: Well said G!

Thu Jan 7 08:35:51 EST 1999
RJ: Has anyone seen any activity in the Minas Gerais 8.25% of '00 or the Cemig '05? It might be a good time to pick up some of the former if levels drop precipitously. Despite Franco's obvious desire for the political spotlight, I don't think that he has more muscle than FHC and the federal govt, particularly when Minas Gerais depends on federal govt fund disbursements for some of its revenues. Probably more ominous than the spectre of Franco is the what this incident may point to down the road - ie, great difficulty for Brazil to restore confidence and meet the IMF targets. However, I suppose that it's good news that the Senate approved the cheque tax. What to do ????

Thu Jan 7 09:00:52 EST 1999
JP: The moratorium could complicate the fiscal adjustment<BR> process and all Brazilian asset prices depend on the success of<BR> that process. Brazil may soon find that it will quickly use up its IMF<BR> handout to stem speculative attacks.

Thu Jan 7 09:25:11 EST 1999
Truth_Hurts: Isn't that Brazil I hear ticking....

Thu Jan 7 09:37:02 EST 1999
anonymous: Enjoy it, Ralf.

Thu Jan 7 10:33:00 EST 1999
Cheetah: If Ebay (web site sucks) is worth more than Goodyear (12bb) then Brazilean asses are a steal !! Just because fund managers are buying Asia now does not mean selling of Latinamerica where there is more value and transparency. The only ticking I hear is Internet valuations.

Thu Jan 7 10:37:26 EST 1999
Margarita Lalinda: Cover your shorts while you can ! Anybody have any Innova (Mexico) or Iusacel (Mex) to sell ???

Thu Jan 7 11:26:15 EST 1999
SPANKY: I am back, GIRLS!!!! And C Bonds are only 8 points from my 40 handle prediction for January.. All you geniuses heard it hear first!!

Thu Jan 7 11:53:25 EST 1999
anonymous: Yea, but check out the correlation of the internet stocks with TBH!!

Thu Jan 7 12:11:32 EST 1999
anonymous: When do we cover Spanky ?

Thu Jan 7 12:37:21 EST 1999
Cciano: Minas gerais moratorium seems to be rather a political manoeuvre than really due to empty pockets. cardoso taking measures to collect the debt. By the way: Alex szcz... still alive? Miss your comments.

Thu Jan 7 12:46:06 EST 1999
Ralfie bashing: Dr Siegfried Luther Bertelsmann AG 270 Carl-Bertelsmann-Str. Guetersloh 33332 Germany Fax.: +49.5241.8062153

Thu Jan 7 13:11:40 EST 1999
Ralfie's Nurse: ralfie was always nothing but trouble, as far as I can remember. this little braggart swore at the tender age of 5 he would never become a grown up. his only prophecy that became true so far.

Thu Jan 7 13:30:26 EST 1999
Grim Reaper: I have never read so much useless garbage on one webpage in my life. They should change the URL to DummyNet. All of you stupid latinos and russkies are loosing your asses and its only going to get worse. Just because you speak spanish doesn't make you a genius, in fact it probably signifies you are lazy. Y'all need a reality check, EMG prices are heading one way------> SOUTH. Adios.

Thu Jan 7 13:44:44 EST 1999
wally: grim reaper: do you think your comments are worth anything? i agree with your expression 'dummynet' but that does not mean that one copies insults.

Thu Jan 7 13:45:53 EST 1999
wally: cciano: alex is off for a few days. you will hear from him in a short while.

Thu Jan 7 13:47:04 EST 1999
wally: spanky: would you like to know where you can shove your handle? if yes just ask.

Thu Jan 7 13:49:43 EST 1999
Spanky: Waldo: yes, please tell me. but i am not trying to hurt your feelings. i know you must be in pain with your longs, but, please, don't get mad at me

Thu Jan 7 13:56:39 EST 1999
El Ecualizador: Grim Reaper (Ralf & Co.)- Unsupported opinions and insults are just like a fart: they stink and can only come from an asshole.Hasta la vista baby.

Thu Jan 7 13:58:16 EST 1999
wally: i am caving and selling. i am really, really bearish.

Thu Jan 7 14:03:13 EST 1999
unpourtous: Wally: bearish? why so?

Thu Jan 7 14:16:58 EST 1999
Grim Reaper: El Equalizador: Phew, what stinks in here? I found it. I have some brazil stuck on the bottom of my shoe.

Thu Jan 7 14:17:09 EST 1999
Spanky: knock, knock!

Thu Jan 7 14:18:25 EST 1999
wally: who's there?

Thu Jan 7 14:19:09 EST 1999
Spanky: C bonds!

Thu Jan 7 14:20:03 EST 1999
Spanky: c bonds who?

Thu Jan 7 14:20:57 EST 1999
Spanky: c the bonds go to a 40 handle!

Thu Jan 7 14:27:01 EST 1999
El Ecualizador: Grim Reaper - It's "Ecualizador" in Spanish NOT "Equalizador" in 1/2 Spanish 1/2 English. Also Brazilians are latinos but don't speak Spanish, they speak Portuguese. At least get your grammar and geography straight or you'll flunk 6th grade.

Thu Jan 7 14:32:34 EST 1999
Grim Reaper: El Equalizador: Its nice to know that you can spell. Now you can fill out the forms at the unemployment office, the welfare office and INS.

Thu Jan 7 14:32:48 EST 1999
anonymous: El E and Grim: take your beef out to the parking lot. You are messing up a good website.

Thu Jan 7 14:34:38 EST 1999
Grim Reaper: If this is a good website, I would hate to see a bad one... This website is a waste of bandwidth.

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