Color of the Market Archive, Page #11
Color of the Market A R C H I V E 

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The Color of the Market has been an online meeting place for people interested in emerging market debt since 1996, and has undergone many changes in that time. We have discovered an old archive of Color of the Market messages, covering 5 months starting in late 1998. For the benefit of both old and new Bradynetters, we present this archive untouched.

Note: Back in these days, the forum software was greatly different than the Color of the Market that we are now accustomed to. Without the requirement of registration, the forum began to attract disrupters who would engage in vulgarities, name-calling, impersonation of users, and other childish hijinks. But if you can wade through the nonsense, some of the comments herein are historic, and prophetic.

Enjoy,
IDEAGlobal/BradyNet Staff

Fri Mar 5 07:15:48 EST 1999
Alex: and when Russia is forced into more defaults,the IMF gets its money in about 850Yrs.,if ever...
Fri Mar 5 11:43:09 EST 1999
Kraut in a Bottle: If Ecuador were to default on Bradys later this year (something that is quite likely, as those that follow Ecuadorean politics should know), would this loss of virginiy for Bradys affect seriously the markets..?
Fri Mar 5 11:53:22 EST 1999
Alexander: Hi Kraut,selbstverständlich würde ein default in Ecuador den gesamten EM Bond Markt beeinträchtigen,aber warts mal ab, ES KOMMT KEIN STAATSBANKROTT! Was macht die Great Siver Mine??
Fri Mar 5 12:20:17 EST 1999
anonymous: Hi Kraut, how did you get in there? Is it Stoli o Moskovskaya?
Fri Mar 5 12:26:21 EST 1999
Alexander: Hey friend,if he is bearish,answer his point.If we start with remarks,you know what follows,lets keep our site nice,OK??? I prefer Stolychnaya!!!rgds.&good weekend
Fri Mar 5 12:31:00 EST 1999
anonymous: wally assumes others are stupid. i have been in zero since 1982.You get increase in principal as time goes on as your interest. Better lookup OID. If you can hold the security for few years then forget Bradys. This is not for old ladys clipping coupons.Go get the basiscs then join discussion. You can get basis book from Merrill.
Fri Mar 5 12:37:20 EST 1999
Alex: You are wrong,this is for young guy and old ladies clipping coupons, 15%..20%..25%..45%..60%...just like printing money!! For those who dare.
Fri Mar 5 12:50:10 EST 1999
wally: i not think you stupid. may be i is stupid. but you too stupid if you tell me that value increase as time go by. because it not work like this! value can fall when interest rates increase. so not always up but also d o w n ! full value only at maturity. comprende?
Fri Mar 5 12:52:33 EST 1999
wally: i just order all basic books from bookstore to learn more, so i is not stupid but mucho brillant. then i invest and make much money and give wife for spending. thank you for good advice.
Fri Mar 5 13:01:34 EST 1999
anonymous: wally is truly stupid . he is confusing time value of money with mark to market. it would also not hurt if you took elementry english grammer.
Fri Mar 5 13:02:38 EST 1999
omar: Hello amigos, I'm proud to declare myself a member also of the "cupon clippers", in fact there's no better place for cupon clippers than EM bonds. Greetings
Fri Mar 5 13:08:48 EST 1999
anonymous: Hey "brainie" SIN NOMBRE stop attacking wally, he unlike you and other parasites has gven us a lot of usefull information. As a bonus let me give you a litle lesson on proper English, <<he is confusing THE time value of money with mark to market. it would also not hurt ALSO WOULD NOT HURT if you took elementry ELEMENTARY english grammer GRAMMAR.>> La Justicia
Fri Mar 5 13:10:01 EST 1999
wally: oh, big problem. first book for zero coupon arrive from book store. but i no can read! can anybody help me? nice to see you again omar. rgds.
Fri Mar 5 13:14:46 EST 1999
anonymous: Zero cupon ?, Oh, I've got some good ones: Cash, Metals (sorry Ralfie), Commodities and Japan's bonds now !!!
Fri Mar 5 13:45:47 EST 1999
anonymous: come on my ecuador par now we are in 38,375 of 36,00 this morming and the 30 years is going in 5,56 of 5,70 yesterday, come on baby ecuador y love you.
Fri Mar 5 13:55:18 EST 1999
Alexander: Maybe I can help,someone who can read and write is an academic, but someone who can only read or write is a specialist...
Fri Mar 5 14:18:08 EST 1999
Omar: Good news on Ecuador for you Anonymous, if you are short and not just talking...if so when (at what level) would you plan to cover your positions ?. Greetings
Fri Mar 5 14:23:29 EST 1999
Cciano: Ecuador's Mahuad to rise IVA (=VAT) from 10 to 15%. That brings about 500 Mio$/yr. Omar, we can clip in april. Nice weekend to everybody.
Fri Mar 5 14:30:42 EST 1999
anonymous: my friend Omar I go to sell a call for 1 month when the ecuador par are in 44,00, I believe this is the real prices of this paper in this moment.
Fri Mar 5 14:39:52 EST 1999
Omar: Thanks Anonymous, I personally prefer to hold these bonds long term but respect other strategies. Cicciano, it's good to hear from you, I'm also whistling while cupons roll in and believe that Ecuador's relatively small soze debt (compared to Russia, Brazil, etc.) is a good protection against the IMF & Co. wanting to test a disastrous Eurobond/Brady default.Regards
Fri Mar 5 16:02:50 EST 1999
anonymous: To Anonymous: just wait, maybe Ecuadorian goverment will accord with IMF nex week, so the brady bonds will up....good luck!
Fri Mar 5 16:08:30 EST 1999
Cheat-dah: whistle while you clip, whistle while you clip, spanky is a jerk, shortie bit his wheenie, now it does'nt work... have a nice weekend
Fri Mar 5 16:31:43 EST 1999
Alexander: BRAZ C.. MAR99.. 59.56.. +375..so far for SHORT tonight. Its a very risky thing! Good weekend to you,friends. Please no YabYum,Cheetah!
Fri Mar 5 17:58:06 EST 1999
anonymous: come on my friend Omar I buy very par bond because I see that Mahuad is a gerencial person, in 3 month he sign de peace whith Fujimory, he go to take the deal whith de FMI whith the Mundial Bank, whith the Club of Paris and go to privatize very institucion in the country. Come on my president, you are the biggest president in latin American.
Fri Mar 5 17:58:08 EST 1999
anonymous: come on my friend Omar I buy very par bond because I see that Mahuad is a gerencial person, in 3 month he sign de peace whith Fujimory, he go to take the deal whith de FMI whith the Mundial Bank, whith the Club of Paris and go to privatize very institucion in the country. Come on my president, you are the biggest president in latin American.
Fri Mar 5 20:14:46 EST 1999
wally: what's going on? suddenly age old comments (february)?!
Fri Mar 5 23:00:16 EST 1999
Omar: If Mahuad turns out to be like other Harvard trained technocrats in Latin America, Ecuador could very well be an excellent opportunity Anonymous friend. These guys know how to work with Wall Street and usually turn things around, just look at Mexico, a basketcase in 1994 and a "strong" performer today.
Sat Mar 6 02:26:46 EST 1999
Alexander: comments from Feb11th?? What is going on?? Ask BradyNet!! Jamil Mahuad will achieve his goal,Ecuador will be ok,rgds to all
Sat Mar 6 06:41:16 EST 1999
anonymous: xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sat Mar 6 09:00:28 EST 1999
anonymous: Ralfie's site is damaged too, strange coincidence.
Sat Mar 6 11:56:03 EST 1999
Alexander: Hi friends,greetings to all !!!
Sat Mar 6 11:56:13 EST 1999
Alexander: Hi friends,greetings to all !!!
Sat Mar 6 17:54:04 EST 1999
Daniel: Testing 1 2 3.
Sat Mar 6 17:57:54 EST 1999
Daniel: Testing 1 2 3
Sat Mar 6 18:04:14 EST 1999
Daniel: testing 1 2 3
Sat Mar 6 18:46:44 EST 1999
Pete Canovas: Ecuador won't stabilize until oil prices came back. If they adjust their budget with these oil prices, when OPEC gets irts act together, Ecuador will be agood play.
Sat Mar 6 19:04:17 EST 1999
Gaijin: Hi Alex, Are you one of the "coupon clippers"?
Sat Mar 6 19:05:22 EST 1999
anonymous: The big enigma right now is not Mahuad, it is Chavez!
Sat Mar 6 19:07:10 EST 1999
anonymous: Chavez? If he turns out to be another fake populist like Menem no one will ever pay attention to elections in Latam. NYTrader
Sat Mar 6 20:17:50 EST 1999
anonymous: qqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqq qqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqq qqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqq qqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqq qqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqq qqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqq qqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqq qqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqq qqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqq qqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqq qqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqq qqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqq qqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqq qqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqq qqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqq 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Sat Mar 6 21:41:03 EST 1999
Omar: Hi NYTrader, nobody should really pay a lot of attention to elections in LatAm in the context of EM investing, all politicians know that their hands are tied up by the need for external investment, so they embrace market friendly reforms on principle or because they have no other choice.Greetings
Sat Mar 6 22:38:47 EST 1999
Cheetah: Chavez will soon learn that he has lost precious time, instead of coming out and liberalizing everything he is concentrating on politics, politics and more politics, demogoguery... no management on the economy. I have sold most of my Veni bond position, bot some Veni equities (exporters) to keep some exposure. Only cheap asset in Venezuela is USD !!
Sat Mar 6 23:39:36 EST 1999
anonymous: First Ecuador, then Venezuea, CHEAT-DAH! The D word! Whadda I tell you about Venezuela and Chavez, CHEAT_DAH... But you just wouldn't listen... And of course, you always make money and never do a bad trade..
Sun Mar 7 04:41:30 EST 1999
Alexander: Hi Anonym,there still will be no default,you laughed too early.No default in Ecuador,no default in Vennie and Borrachos will pay the EUROs... but I say this as my idea.I am not so sure about my judgements as the SHORTs are......until then coupon clipping,clipping,clipping!!
Sun Mar 7 05:19:19 EST 1999
anonymous: Sovereign will not default on euros.Think about the crisis of confidence on the world fin markets of such a default.Does the IMF want to put capitalism as a system,in crisis?I wouldn't dare if I were to decide.
Sun Mar 7 08:15:55 EST 1999
anonymous: It's interesting: On this site the good interventions are always in a correct english, the stupid and bad ones in a kind of wanna, gonna, u-english which is completely ununderstandable to a civilized person.
Sun Mar 7 08:33:03 EST 1999
anonymous: hello my friend, today is a good day, because the market is close, this week is very crucial for ecuador I believe FMI go to sign de accourd whith my friend Jamil the super Mahuad, in venezuela mr Chavez dont have live, the populary of 70 % in december 98 now is down in 40% in there month nobody like this president, because he cant resolve the problem, he dont can solve any problem, he is a bad president, a bad military, a bad father of family, a very very bad picher, come on men.
Sun Mar 7 10:13:21 EST 1999
wally: 'good english'. it does not really matter how good one's english is as long as there constructive dialogues and that the comments do not contain any insults. english is not everybody's mother tongue, we should take that into our considerations. if of course there are insults, then the insulted one(in first anger) tends to use his language proficiency as a lever. happened to me more than once.
Sun Mar 7 11:12:07 EST 1999
Alex: we should also take into consideration that some participants do not know to read or write english very well,but their message is nevertheless interesting and helpful.grds/saludos
Sun Mar 7 12:04:55 EST 1999
anonymous: Hi, nice talking to you.
Sun Mar 7 12:05:02 EST 1999
anonymous: Hi, nice talking to you.
Sun Mar 7 12:07:42 EST 1999
anonymous: Is anyone online ? I'm a Brazilian portfolio manager.
Sun Mar 7 12:26:22 EST 1999
anonymous: My dear Wally: You have the sense of contradiction, therefor I called you once a primary school teacher. I do not speak about grammatical mistakes or errors in english. English is not my mother tongue either and I make many mistakes. I speak about these super english-speaking american likes, who say instead of I want to go "i wanna go" instead of you "u" and many more things I do not even understand and therefor I cannot repeat. It is a slang of stupid people who want to make themselves important. And this slang I hate and I think it is not fair for these who do not understand this slang but would very well understand good english how you and me learned it on the gymnasium, after greek and latin, french and italian.... Did you understand now what I mean?
Sun Mar 7 12:33:55 EST 1999
anonymous: To anonymous: But understand one very important thing about Hugo Chavez: He is a democratically fairly elected president of a democracy. How Winston Chruchill said once: The democracy is the worst system of state, .... beside all others. The worst (elected) president is - so shows history - thoudsand times better than the best dictator, and that for one good reason: after four years the people can do a new election and not elect him any more, if he was a bad president. But do not be so anxious, let President Hugo Chavez be president for a little while. And then we can judge. I read already many good things about him in the big newspapers of this world....
Sun Mar 7 12:36:12 EST 1999
anonymous: To the brazlian portofolio manager: What is the problem? Please tell, maybe we can help
Sun Mar 7 14:30:58 EST 1999
Alexander: <<Anonymous: My dear Wally: You have the sense of contradiction, therefor I called you once a primary school teacher.>> excuse me please,but why are you posting anonoymously? You can state your name since you have adressed Wally by name!! Talking about fairness,I guess !!!
Sun Mar 7 14:58:34 EST 1999
Omar: I would think that Chavez' drop in popularity is a natural consecuence of being a populist: you promise the unattainable to get elected and the...reality hits !!!, you've got to play by the rules.Let's give him a little time and if he's truly the smart politician that he appeared to be he'll push the necessary reforms.
Sun Mar 7 15:31:41 EST 1999
wally: anon ('wally primary school teacher'). i understood your message quite well. my comments were more in general directions and only triggered by yours. no hard feelings please. but since you are a german like me, i would appreciate if you promote me to a gymnasium teacher.
Sun Mar 7 15:36:59 EST 1999
anonymous: My dear Alexander or Alex: You also, you have the soul of a primary teacher. That is not an insult. That will only say that you have a kind of policemans attitude due to I do not to what kind of fact, maybe you are a very long time on this site or so. Anyway, you give notes, good ones and bad ones, you insult when you think that insulting is the right thing, you write in german if you think so. In any case you think - like a primary school teacher - that you are a very important man. What the "anonymous" is concerned so was it y o u who made me attentif to the fact that if you give your name or a nick name on this site you can be found. You declared once in december: "the net is not sure". Do you remember? So, based on your counsel I changed my attitude and started to be anonymous. What does it change, really. You think, because you sign Alex or Alexander I know more about you than if you would sign anonymous. It is not interesting who talks but what he says. So stop once this policeman attitude and give, as you many times did, just news.
Sun Mar 7 15:40:42 EST 1999
Alex: Dann hätten wir gleich drei Oberlehrer bitte!! Oder soll ich uns Klug****er nennen???Allerherzlichste Grüsse.Message not important! Translation not necessary....rgds.
Sun Mar 7 15:42:29 EST 1999
akh: i used to call my husband wally (the real one) decades ago "master-ji" which in my mother tongue means "sir teacher". he has improved -a bit- since then.
Sun Mar 7 15:45:01 EST 1999
anonymous: My dear Alexander or Alex: Primary teacher is not an insult. It will only say that you and Wally have this primary-school-teacher or - one could also say - superintedent's attitude to have always the last word, to give notes, good ones and bad ones, to insult if you think that insulting is right and to be a kind of - primary- school-teacher on this net. I cannot help but I see it so. But please, it is really not an insult. What "anonymous" is concerned so was it y o u who made me once in december or early january attentif to the fact that the "internet is not sure". So, based on y o u r advise I changed my attitude and am now anonymous. But really: Do you think because you are signing Alexander or Alex you are better or more distinguished? Do you think I know more about you than if you would show up as anonymous? You will not let me believe that. But I am sure you will have the last word......
Sun Mar 7 15:51:26 EST 1999
wally: ok, ok. let's go back to discuss the submerging markets. just to have the last word.
Sun Mar 7 15:52:38 EST 1999
Alexander: Do you think because you are signing Alexander or Alex you are better or more distinguished? Do you think I know more about you than if you would show up as anonymous? You will not let me believe that. But I am sure you will have the last word...... WHY DO YOU HAVE THE IMPRESSION THAT PEOPLE WHO ARE NOT ANONYMOUS THINK THEY WERE BETTER OR MORE DISTINGUISHED!!! If I may ask you a question,what is your opinion on the RusFed28,Sir??
Sun Mar 7 15:56:59 EST 1999
Alexander: "internet is not sure"meine Absicht war damals,ZURECHT,Sie vor gefährlichen Schnüfflern zu schützen,über die und deren Methoden ich Informationen habe, allerdings ist dies bei so einer Diskussion nicht nötig
Sun Mar 7 16:15:09 EST 1999
wally: rusfed 28. as mame (ffm) says. they will pay (sooner or later). insha'allah!
Sun Mar 7 16:20:46 EST 1999
wally: all of you in europe: look at the clock. it's bedtime. here we'll soon have a beautiful sunrise.
Sun Mar 7 16:23:24 EST 1999
Alexander: No default in Ecuador,no default in Vennie and Borrachos will pay the EUROs... but I say this as my idea.I am not so sure about my judgements as some people are......until then coupon clipping,clipping,clipping!! I repeat myself,OK!
Sun Mar 7 18:03:07 EST 1999
anonymous: Hello, GIRLS!! Morgan to Frau Alex and Frau Wally!!! Think we rally a little hear and then do the big swan dive. Can anyone tell me how is Brazil going to make it? Luv ya!.. Huggs and kisses, Spanky!
Sun Mar 7 18:19:24 EST 1999
anonymous: Russian reserves are finally starting to rise. Up 200 M in the past 2 weeks. Good news for eurobonds.
Sun Mar 7 19:44:33 EST 1999
Cheetah: To my friend "Sinnombre", I can understand your anger, it's difficult being short this market AND having Cheat_DAH coupon clipping... and having capital gains. Remember when I told you to BUY BUY BUY Veni ??? Back before Chavez was ellected. Two weeks ago I told you I was reducing my Veni Position and buying some Russia 18's and some corporate Latinos (FARGO, INNOVA, PESQUERA AUSTRAL, GLOBOPAR, IUSACEL, TRICOM). So it's been a good four months for the CCC (Coupon Clipper Club) !!! Join us !!!
Sun Mar 7 19:50:14 EST 1999
wally: spanky old girl! where have you been? we missed your 'luv' ya'. thank god your are back. got worried already something happened.
Sun Mar 7 20:19:42 EST 1999
anonymous: Wally, you are a good sport and very smart to boot. You know I am just trying to yank your chain. Everyone takes everything so personal on this site. Spanky.
Sun Mar 7 20:59:59 EST 1999
anonymous: Costa Rica new issue US$300 million. June-July, 7-10 year. 144A. 400-500 bp.
Sun Mar 7 21:27:06 EST 1999
wally: spanky: as long as you yank chains only that's fine. but a lot of chaps visiting this site and who are sitting with their butts on a hot stove want serious discussions and information and might take our 'frolicking' not to well. anyway, in your time zone there's nothing going on now so we might as well joke around.
Sun Mar 7 22:31:04 EST 1999
Cheetah: Spanky, my darling, do you wish to join the CCC ? Do I sense a change of heart ? (if you have one).
Sun Mar 7 22:41:07 EST 1999
Cheetah: On Veni, if Chavez remembers that he has to focus on the economy, then I will recommend Veni again, but right now you have a business deterioration as never seen, and a president that does not want to focus... and the problem IS the economy.
Sun Mar 7 23:38:50 EST 1999
anonymous: Come on cheat... I have heart.. I just the other side of your trade.. just think if we all agreed, there would be no market.. I'm just here to remind there is risk in this market and take a little bit of your money. Where are you located? Look me up when your in Hong Kong... Luv ya, Spanky..
Mon Mar 8 01:55:46 EST 1999
Alexander: Hi SPANKY,you are really obsessed with Frau and Girls! Something seems to be really wrong with your disposition,did they forget to take something off,while putting something else on??? Luv ya too, miss ya so much,sweet honey!
Mon Mar 8 08:21:59 EST 1999
Fox: I have been in this board for all most a month, I really think all of you who started it made a great job. Everyone who participates should make the best efforts to improve what we are developing. In this context, doubts, lack of information, bad grammar is all accepted and more than welcome, on the other hand insults and mockery only denotes ignorance. All of us have a well established objective: make money in this difficult market. If we can help each other in this path the objectives of this board will be more than exceeded.rgds.
Mon Mar 8 08:41:26 EST 1999
Cheetah: There will always be disregard, foolishness, looniness, absurdities, wackiness and spankiness. This is the center for Banana Republic investing - for stiff, uptight commentary anyone can limit themselves to Morgan Stanley Goldman et al. STOP the morality and START the critiq and have some fun ! (as the GIRLS wld say)
Mon Mar 8 09:22:45 EST 1999
Daniel: "The Russian Central Bank sent billions of dollars of foreign currency reserves out of the country and into a secret offshore network during the past five years, and profits from the investments appear to have been concealed from the Russian authorities, according to an internal audit of the bank's activity." http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WPcap/1999-03/08/077r-030899-idx.html
Mon Mar 8 09:30:09 EST 1999
Fox: Good bye
Mon Mar 8 10:26:21 EST 1999
anonymous: mahuad go to washington ????????????
Mon Mar 8 11:58:54 EST 1999
anonymous: Alex, guess I just see the glass half full and only your feminine side! Luv ya, Spanky..
Mon Mar 8 12:07:18 EST 1999
anonymous: Spanky, get your banana and dance the C-JAM-BLUES (D.Ellington)
Mon Mar 8 13:32:29 EST 1999
anonymous: Ecuador in a "sudden bank holiday" ???? - sounds more like panic to avoid a bank run !!! - anybody knows current prices for Ecuador PAR or 402 ?. Thanks
Mon Mar 8 17:39:19 EST 1999
anonymous: After Russia's default on eurobonds, those instruments lost their "status". Nothing is sacred anymore! A coutry's political/social/ economic risk is all that matters. What ever happened to the argument that Euros are impossible to restructure? NYTrader
Mon Mar 8 17:41:33 EST 1999
anonymous: "It is the most counterproductive policy initiative that I've seen out of multilateral organizations in a long time in that it jeopardizes the best form of private sector capital for emerging economies," said Michael Cembalest, portfolio manager at J.P. Morgan Investments.
Mon Mar 8 17:49:38 EST 1999
anonymous: Default fears in Ecuador mounted after the country's banking authorities announced an unexpected bank holiday on Monday in hopes of taking pressures off the banking system after large amounts of deposits were withdrawn last week. It looks like they may freeze dollar deposits,the banks may not even open this week so we seem to have gone from bad to worse.
Mon Mar 8 18:05:34 EST 1999
JPC: The likelihood of Ecuador default has risen significantly with this news. The government has spent a third of its foreign reserves in recent months trying to shore up the sucre, yet the currency remains in a free fall, plunging 46 percent so far this year . The government says the country is in its worst shape in 80 years, implying it's worse than the early 1980s debt crisis, yet its ability to deal with the problems is severely constrained by a political system which makes decision-making very onerous. The situation is very similar to Russia's, with a lot of bonds trading at the value of the next coupon payment and whether it will be made.
Mon Mar 8 18:07:58 EST 1999
anonymous: Today's crisis highlights the need for aid from the International Monetary Fund, which will probably give Ecuador $400 million by mid-year. That will allow other bilateral loans, and a friendly restructuring of Paris Club debt. A debt default is not an imminent concern, even though it's an underlying worry, because Ecuador's next debt payment is not due until August.
Mon Mar 8 19:23:55 EST 1999
wally: NYtrader: what exactly are you trading? you are claiming that russia has defaulted on eurobonds. when and on what euros ???
Mon Mar 8 19:56:38 EST 1999
anonymous: Wally I can tell you. this trader is trading rumors and chickenshit. greetings from quiet watcher.
Mon Mar 8 20:04:33 EST 1999
wally: anybody who is a bit familiar with euros and reads comments in this discussion forum knows that this is not spreading a rumour but nonsense.
Mon Mar 8 21:49:17 EST 1999
Cheetah: Hello Quite Watcher, are you a member of the CCC ? On the market- I will be reducing my Veni bond position to zero... going to increase mexican exposure. Any opinions ?
Tue Mar 9 07:09:29 EST 1999
anonymous: cheetah from qiet watcher. if the CCC had not existed since long time i would have invented it. i am a member since 1982. my opinion venezuela vs. mexico? a safe play if you can afford to trade 18% yld with 10%. bought my first mexico 16.5% (pound sterling) during the 82 crisis (my bankers considered me crazy) for 78 and sold in 1992 for 159. since then 4 times UMS in and out.
Tue Mar 9 09:29:43 EST 1999
R. Liechev: For your information, today in "El Nacional", Venezuelan Newspaper: Finance Minister is worried about possible balance of payment crisis, which implies a possible default in external debt payments.......Any comments about this info will be more than appreciated
Tue Mar 9 09:42:20 EST 1999
anonymous: Costa Rica new issue? 7-10 years. US$300 million. Euro/144A. Managers: JP Morgan, CSFB, DMG, Salomon Smith Barney and Chase (Lead to be defined). June-July. 400-600 bp. Issuer: Republic of Costa Rica (Ministry of Finance).
Tue Mar 9 09:56:28 EST 1999
anonymous: Wally : Uneximbank said on February 8 that it could not make the coupon payment and would seek to restructure its debts.
Tue Mar 9 10:06:35 EST 1999
wally: uneximbank is n o t russia. NYTrader quote: "russia's default on eurobonds". that's an incorrect statement.
Tue Mar 9 11:18:19 EST 1999
anonymous: China has set up a research team to determine when to devalue the yuan. While the move doesn’t imply a devaluation is imminent, it does suggest Beijing is seriously considering the option. Any comments from this board on the repercusions on the rest of EM markets ? Rgds- Lee
Tue Mar 9 15:25:28 EST 1999
anonymous: Any news on Ecuador's possible deal with the IMF ?, what's the general feeling about this second "banking holiday" ?
Tue Mar 9 15:46:33 EST 1999
Omar: The question is whether the IMF & Co. are looking to use Ecuador with it's reatively small size debt problem to test their "moral hazard reduction" strategy by forcing a Eurobond restructure.Regards
Tue Mar 9 16:47:40 EST 1999
anonymous: Ecuador is considering an Argentine-style currency board as one of the options to ease itself out of a harsh economic crisis.
Tue Mar 9 16:55:50 EST 1999
anonymous: Possible default of ecuadorian brady backed bonds, could this happen to ec402 too, being a 144 A?
Tue Mar 9 17:00:56 EST 1999
anonymous: "Going to a currency board or even dollarizing the economy would not solve the country's fiscal problems and (save) a banking sector that is in the middle of a meltdown. The fact that you have dollars in a bank account versus sucres does not mean anything if the bank is a basket case. In any case, Ecuador does not have enough reserves to back the sucre under a currency board. They have $1.2 billion in reserves and $1.6 billion in external obligations. If they start earmarking some of these reserves to back up the money supply, they won't have enough left to meet their external obligations" Walter Molano
Tue Mar 9 20:10:40 EST 1999
anonymous: my humble opinion: no default of ecuador, pakistan, romania or russia. paris club and imf are testing the waters. to omar, i find your creation <moral hazard reduction> brilliant. let us keep on clipping coupons (clip, clip, clip). regards from quiet watcher.
Tue Mar 9 22:09:34 EST 1999
Cheetah: To sinnombre, invasions of public and private properties on a daily basis like never before, and the Chavez government doing nothing !!! FIDEL is proud of this beginning... who will invest ? any confidence is being destroyed !!! Surprising indead, and all the economic measures are fiscalist in a depressed economy... the window of opportunity is being CLOSED. I have SOLD my Veni position, and I have been one of the biggest Veni optimists....
Tue Mar 9 22:21:20 EST 1999
wally: cheetah: i have a feeling that you underestimate chavez. give him some time. he can't change things overnight. basically his intentions and targets are laudable.
Wed Mar 10 01:10:46 EST 1999
anonymous: Quiet watcher is 100% right,regards to all,Fred
Wed Mar 10 02:52:15 EST 1999
Cciano: Though Ecuador's debt is as 86% of its GDP, though banking holidays have been extended two more days until thursday, though there is a 48 hours general strike of social sectors and though Mahuad has declared national estate of emergency, I believe that they will not default and agree with quiet watcher too.
Wed Mar 10 04:06:35 EST 1999
Cciano: Mahuad will present measures to get out of financial crisis on thursday. For sure I will clip on 4-25th. Still whistling.
Wed Mar 10 06:49:18 EST 1999
anonymous: Genau so isses! Exactly! rgds.Charles
Wed Mar 10 09:56:18 EST 1999
anonymous: What's going to happen when banks reopen in Ecuador? Anyone "sane" will run to withdraw their $$?
Wed Mar 10 09:56:47 EST 1999
anonymous: The IMF says that Mexico could serve as the pilot for a new programme to prevent financial crises in emerging markets.Under the new plan, the fund would reward countries which follow sound economic policies by extending pre-approved credit lines to them. The money could then be used to help thwart financial collapse. The Mexican government's prudent handling of the economy will see the country post respectable 2.7% growth in 1999 while most of its southerly neighbours flounder. At the same time interest rates are steadily falling, helping promote further growth through cheaper borrowing. Yields on Mexico's short-term debt fell 239 basis points to 24.39% in Tuesday's auction.
Wed Mar 10 10:06:13 EST 1999
anonymous: Brazil's Central Bank intervened in the local currency market, selling dollars to take downward pressure off the real. The Central Bank sold dollars at 1.87 reais per dollar in a bid to maintain the exchange rate around that level.
Wed Mar 10 11:13:00 EST 1999
MexCom: The peso opened strong from foreign investors wanting to bid at the weekly cetes (Mexican treasury bills) auction but major foreign exchange transactions in the afternoon had dealers needing to cover dollar short positions. Peso futures also back tracked slightly from their hectic advance of the previous day for the shorter-term contracts. Interest rates dropped sharply, with the shorter-term cetes declining slightly more than the longer-term. The bell-weather 28-day rate at 24.39 percent was down 2.39 percent from the previous week and at its lowest level since August 18; demand surged with the bid-to-cover ratio at 4.28 versus the 2.19 of the previous week leaving many disappointed investors out of the market to seek alternative investments.
Wed Mar 10 11:15:05 EST 1999
MexCom: The market correctly anticipated a bullish Consumer Price Index report of 1.39 percent for the whole month of February. This was slightly less than anticipated and should give further support to financial markets and the peso. The most sensitive index component affecting poor people, Food, drinks and tobacco, actually declined by - 0.37 percent for the second half of the month and increased by only 0.30 percent for the whole month. Lower prices for fruits and vegetables are primarily responsible for holding down food prices benefiting from the strong peso that enables Mexico to import these items at lower prices. This enables Mexicans to purchase more American apples for example. The financial rally is now spilling over into the Mexican equity market spurred by increased consumer purchasing power.
Wed Mar 10 11:17:00 EST 1999
MexCom: Soft-drink companies such as Pepsi-Gemex and retailers such as Grupo Elektra were buoyed by consumers having more spending power for food and drinks and lower interest rates to help finance retail purchases. Another benefactor will be the media businesses that are very dependent on consumer oriented advertising revenue that has recently boosted share prices for Mexican media giant Grupo Televisa. The Mexican Bolsa closed 2.4 percent higher on March 9 at 4568, its highest level since last July 20. The Bank of Mexico's austere monetary policy in keeping interest rates high to stabilize the peso is being rewarded by the IMF where according to a Wall Street Journal story yesterday that said the IMF is contemplating making Mexico the first country to benefit from a big loan program designed to aid countries before they are hit by financial crisis. The credit line to be extended, $9 billion, will be available to advert speculative attacks against its currency.
Wed Mar 10 11:19:18 EST 1999
MexCom: Usually the IMF comes in after the fact and not fast enough to prevent major currency devaluation that recently hit Brazil and that hit Mexico in December 1994. This new bit of good news, along with cooler inflation, financial recovery in Brazil, higher oil prices, booming manufacturing with another report indicating a healthy 3.9 percent increases in auto exports of 230,528 units for the fist two months of 1999 was topped off yesterday by a corporate announcement by McDonald's. They are going to market a guacamole burger to cater more to the Mexican taste for hamburgers. A 16 percent annual expansion in Mexican sales was mentioned - this is a healthy sign of confidence by a major U.S. corporation that Mexican consumer purchasing power is expanding.
Wed Mar 10 13:20:38 EST 1999
anonymous: "a guacamole burger" , Really intresting stuff !!
Wed Mar 10 13:34:10 EST 1999
anonymous: Mexico in great shape, strong investors' confidence, great job by Ernesto Zedillo in 1999 ??? ....remember Carlos Salinas in 1993... Mexico's problem has always been and continues to be the incredible corruption that drives most political, judicial and economic decisions.
Wed Mar 10 14:10:46 EST 1999
anonymous: "guacamole burger" in Mexico ?, what's next: a "vodka shake" in Moscow as a sign of progress ???
Wed Mar 10 14:29:23 EST 1999
Cciano: Since hamburgers are used to compare purchasing power of different currencies, who can dare to doubt about a hamburger as an important macroeconomic indicator?
Wed Mar 10 14:57:13 EST 1999
Alex: Hi friends,in some countries Hamburgers are artificially expensive (Finland) so this Indicator is only 63.85% efficient....
Wed Mar 10 15:30:27 EST 1999
anonymous: hello, my friends i am the person that write bad the inglish, but i said to you come on go to ecuador par when the prices were 36,50 now the price is 40,25, come on my super mahuad, ecuador is the new argentina, good lucky i win 3,75 points. Yes, yes ,yes, guaju
Wed Mar 10 15:36:38 EST 1999
anonymous: hello, my friends i am the person that write bad the inglish, but i said to you come on go to ecuador par when the prices were 36,50 now the price is 40,25, come on my super mahuad, ecuador is the new argentina, good lucky i win 3,75 points. Yes, yes ,yes, guaju
Wed Mar 10 15:46:36 EST 1999
anonymous: Hi amigo,I write bad spanish pero usted tienen 100% razon!!! saludos,Frank
Wed Mar 10 18:39:04 EST 1999
anonymous: Russian GLB-18 bonds rose 3-3/4 to bid 23-3/4 Wednesday and Russian GLB-05 paper was up 2-7/8 to bid 22-7/8.
Wed Mar 10 18:42:11 EST 1999
anonymous: "Brazil's Central Bank expects borrowing conditions to reopen again...and as soon as they do, the Central Bank intends to launch a sovereign bond of about $1 billion." Any comments on spread, duration ?
Wed Mar 10 18:47:25 EST 1999
anonymous: cciano: jamil with the help of imf will make you clip, clip, clip. quiet watcher.
Wed Mar 10 21:43:10 EST 1999
anonymous: Hey Wally, Primikov and Gore to meet on March 24th. IMF and Russia should close a deal. Paris Club won't touch the Eurobonds. We may see a 20 point rally in the Euro's in the next month. Rock on, my German friend!! Spanky.
Wed Mar 10 22:11:17 EST 1999
wally: spanky: i never believed that paris club can touch the euros. they can make a lot of noise, but then most of them are under the influence of politicians and politicians are not born they are excreted. as far as your predicted 20 point rally is concerned, we should slightly limit our expectations. we need one or even two more imf visits besides the one scheduled end of this week before they are able to hammer out an agreement. primakov/gore visit: i would rather prefer that primakov visits monica to obtain more indepth views.
Thu Mar 11 02:42:11 EST 1999
anonymous: Japan - watch the yen continue to decline vs the dollar as Japan remains on the brink of a deflationary spiral. Brazil - currently on life support, economy to contract 6% this year. China - will they or won't they devalue their currency? Latest thinking is probably not this year, but in 2000 a high probability. However, a continued weakening of the Yen might push China to devalue sooner in an attempt to make Chinese Exports more competitive, & thus causing yet another round of competitive devaluations in Asia and Latin America. US - the stratospheric levels of the US stock market is starting to cast a cloud of worry, as the case for a dramatic correction becomes a larger risk. Trend that the rest of the world while suffering from recession have redirected their exports to the US thus offsetting some of the decline in demand from Asia and Latin America. My concern is that it seems that everyone has placed all their eggs in the same basket, that is reliance on the US consumer to keep spending money they don't have (savings rates at all time lows) to keep buying up the production of goods that are increasingly in oversupply.
Thu Mar 11 02:42:42 EST 1999
anonymous: China - will they or won't they devalue their currency? Latest thinking is probably not this year, but in 2000 a high probability. However, a continued weakening of the Yen might push China to devalue sooner in an attempt to make Chinese Exports more competitive, & thus causing yet another round of competitive devaluations in Asia and Latin America. US - the stratospheric levels of the US stock market is starting to cast a cloud of worry, as the case for a dramatic correction becomes a larger risk. Trend that the rest of the world while suffering from recession have redirected their exports to the US thus offsetting some of the decline in demand from Asia and Latin America. My concern is that it seems that everyone has placed all their eggs in the same basket, that is reliance on the US consumer to keep spending money they don't have (savings rates at all time lows) to keep buying up the production of goods that are increasingly in oversupply.
Thu Mar 11 05:36:52 EST 1999
optimist: Anon:The story of decreasing savings in US is more than 1 year long. Dont forget - "babyboomers" are retiring now - they are advanced consumers of new dwellnig, yachts, luxury cars, staples thus ensuring increased consumption in the US. Besides they consume more services. In all, with decreasing savings rate industries get more and more goods orders - just moneys are coming from a different source. US balance of payments isnt in an ugly shape , cos capital inflow compensates negative trade balance. Now try to explain the paradox - stock market grows in the environment of very small equity funds inflow. Meanwhile trading volumes are pretty huge. I dare to explain it by the level of cash held by major investors - it decreased from 9 % average for last 10 yr to less then 5 % now. That is the major fear for US mkts - is overinvestment. Roughly - mkt bears correction of 10% and then sells on big profit taking turning into tradegy.
Thu Mar 11 07:15:49 EST 1999
Alex: Hi Opti,RusFed up big in Berlin/Frankfurt.rgds.
Thu Mar 11 08:48:20 EST 1999
JPC: Ecuadorian bonds are very cheap and I don't think the country will default on Brady bonds Ecuador is a place where things have never been too great, but it's never been terrible -- they've never been in a default scenario.A lot must happen there, and you get the feeling that the International Monetary Fund will come through with a financial aid package. The country must make<BR> fiscal adjustments, including sorting out its banking system and a rise in the value-added tax. It's coming together, but there'sstill a lot to be done.
Thu Mar 11 09:20:41 EST 1999
Cciano: JPC I agree on your comment. Mahuad will rise VAT from 10 to 15%, let's see the other fiscal measures he will present tonight. Rising oil prices and the drastic reduction of oil production announced by OPEC will improve Ecuadors situation.
Thu Mar 11 09:35:29 EST 1999
anonymous: Russia’s Central Bank used nearly $1 billion of its gold and foreign currency reserves in January for foreign debt payments. The Central Bank of Russia's gold reserves are 520 tonnes today. Rus euros next coupon payments , no problem !!
Thu Mar 11 09:57:55 EST 1999
JMC: Anon, it seems you are right. Everybody now feels that there is going to be no problem with Russian Euro payments. Maybe Spanky was right with his appreciation guess, (factoring in the normal spanky factor ie saying 20% when you really mean 8%). Ecuador looks in bad shape but there debts are not really that huge in comparison. I guess I am just considiring that after everything that the emerging markets have been through lately are we being a little overconfident? OK the rating agencies maybe falling over themselves to upgrade Asia- but what do they know, they started downgrading Korea when the country was this close to having NO reserves. A Chinese deval woul have to be a tremendous shock to Asia and the investors that have started to put money back into the region without really thinking. Can this crisis be over so quickly? ps Mexico maybe doing well but have you checked out the weakness in their banking sector?
Thu Mar 11 10:27:14 EST 1999
anonymous: Ref Mexico.There is a lot of foreign capital entry. They are very interested in the rates in the Mexican local currency bond markets. The rate on the government's bellwether 28-day Cetes, or T-bill was 25.80 during the weekly auction on Tuesday, which remains relatively high even when adjusted for inflation, which economists are forecasting on average at about 16.5 percent this year.
Thu Mar 11 10:31:13 EST 1999
anonymous: "We have reason to believe that we will come to an agreement with the IMF," Itar-Tass quoted Primakov as saying at a meeting with leaders of factions in the State Duma, the lower house of parliament.
Thu Mar 11 10:37:35 EST 1999
JMC: Does anybody really believe that the Paris Club will demand equal treatment to Eurobonds. The implications could be severe although baring in mind how Asia has suddenly become attractive perhaps not as bad as first thought
Thu Mar 11 11:14:23 EST 1999
optimist: JPC: I would rather say it was none of Paris club bloody biz. Most ot PClub loans were ties lines, favouring western exporters rather than live money. Actually asking for euro restructure means to rip western countries taxpayers twice . First - collecting taxes and granting them to , say, russia. Second, depriving their taxpayers of eurobonds proceeds (and thus diminishing future tax inflows) Hello, European taxpayers, wake up!!! PClub wants to rip you off!! Alex: yes, euros are up , I added rf18 after rf07 bnchmrk crossed 24 up. rgds.
Thu Mar 11 12:00:44 EST 1999
anonymous: Germany's MinFin Lafontaine has resigned. He also gave up his function as leader of socialist party. Great!
Thu Mar 11 12:37:59 EST 1999
anonymous: The next event in german politics will be the rupture of the greens with the reds and a big coalition, if not a coalition free democrats - reds.
Thu Mar 11 12:42:12 EST 1999
anonymous: Yes, You are right, Sir. Euro/$ went up from 1.0805 to 1.1016 within twenty minuts. Any questions?
Thu Mar 11 12:50:38 EST 1999
anonymous: Wally, the problem with waiting for 2 more IMF visits is that the market doesn't wait. You will be buyin' 'em at 30 on next visit and 35 on the second visit. What's the problem? The 1 year forward price on the globals are in the mid-teens!! Spanky.
Thu Mar 11 12:52:42 EST 1999
anonymous: will Lafo go to Brussels? rubbing shoulders with Mme Cresson?
Thu Mar 11 13:02:24 EST 1999
anonymous: No. He probably will stick his nose in her a..h..e.
Thu Mar 11 14:25:36 EST 1999
Jim: On Ecuador: Mahuad is not Bucaram. He won't default and I don't think he wants the IMF doing a trial bail-in so he can save on what, a single $500m Euro? Oil price rise helps but its news-driven, not fundamental. More help comes from the depreciation of the sucre, since half of the state's revenue comes from Petroecuador. The country's fundamental problem (like Ven) is shifting from a rentier state that buys patronage by subsidizing everything to a normal state that lives by taxes and is held accountable by the taxpayers. Mahuad started this in September with the subsidy cuts, and he's paying for it. Keep your eyes on the politics, not on the amortization schedule. Regards.
Thu Mar 11 14:49:11 EST 1999
anonymous: Germany's defense minister Scharping, on former ocasions heavily damaged by Lafontaine, has been watched happily masturbating in the defense ministry.
Thu Mar 11 15:19:19 EST 1999
anonymous: come on mr. mahuad this is your day, speak very good an send the par ecuador to 50,00, come on it is very posible., yes i want to buy a new apartament, my inglish is very bad but my profit are very good.
Thu Mar 11 15:36:31 EST 1999
wally: spanky: RusFed 25. i did not wait to buy them. i got more than enough in my pocket. where do you obtain a one year forward price from???? i am very interested. are you talking about options? i have never heard of a one year call or put.
Thu Mar 11 15:37:21 EST 1999
wally: should of course read: RusFed 28.
Thu Mar 11 16:05:57 EST 1999
Sombrero: Today, having filled orders to complete its issue, the Republic of Panama announced it decided not to price its 20-year offering because the rates offered were considered too high
Thu Mar 11 16:11:59 EST 1999
anonymous: Wally, Implied at could probably find it o-t-c. Remember, the forward price is simply: Ps/(1+ytm).. So the brave hearts who want to short it here for one year, the price has to trade below 15 to breakeven. So they are betting default on the next or 2nd coupie. Spanky.
Thu Mar 11 16:15:04 EST 1999
anonymous: Hey Wally, is Oscar's departure a threat to stability in EMU.. Man, what a short the Euro is. Continent sliding into deflation and they gotta keep rates high to protect the new dog currency. The French and Italians are gonna love this. Think King George of Hungary is gonna go after the Eurodog. Don't you, my German friend? Spanky.
Thu Mar 11 16:24:18 EST 1999
wally: spanky: rusfed forward as far as i know only otc call or put but max 180 days. i will check that out tomorrow. lafontaine's resignation let the usd drop 5 pfennigs within minutes. that's the typical market overreaction. oskar of course (together with france's strauss-kahn) put a lot of political pressure on the european central bank to lower interest rates. now he is gone but they have to lower rates a quarter point sooner or later to reduce unemployment. personally i am a dollar fan, the euro will take years to be a real competitor.
Thu Mar 11 16:34:50 EST 1999
wally: spanky: p.s. to euro. one must take also into consideration that euro interest rate is at an all time low (3%). inspite of the very low mortgage rates (average 4.7% fixed) the real estate market for above average homes is moving down and down. people are just too scared to buy. but then -especially in germany- they have fancy prices. to give you an example: if a german from munich, frankfurt, hamburg or duesseldorf tells you he own a million dollar home, he might own a townhouse 1600 sqft on a lot of 4000 sqft in a good area. 15 years ago i told some german friends "you get a full fledged house in the us for the price of a double garage in frankfurt. i am twice a year in germany and am shocked every time when i see the prices of any goods or services.
Thu Mar 11 16:59:34 EST 1999
anonymous: French/Italian/Spanish/Port. currencies were for years too high,now the € pays the bill...rgds.Charles
Thu Mar 11 17:39:20 EST 1999
anonymous: It's been a good day, spreads feel very firm, We've seen equal amount of buyers and sellers on both sides ... people are putting money to work!!! NYTRADER
Thu Mar 11 17:40:33 EST 1999
anonymous: Wally. thanks. let me know what you hear on Russia. interesting how Primikov to meet with Gore. Both will probably lead countries in the next century. Primikov beginning to realize old Maggie Thatcher's axiom: TINA... T(here) I(s) N(o) A(lternative). Rock on with your Globals, the Great Waldo Pepper!!!
Thu Mar 11 17:41:09 EST 1999
anonymous: major n. american banks agree to keep brazil credit lines at 2/28/99 levels
Thu Mar 11 17:52:59 EST 1999
anonymous: funny how same american banks agreed to keep lines in after first imf announcement. then they cut by 10 bn. the good old free-rider problem. you maintain your lines, while I get out at par.
Thu Mar 11 17:55:32 EST 1999
anonymous: Hey Wally, I am now hearing that Primikov wants the technical economic teams of Russia and the IMF to have meetings before he visits Gore in 2 weeks. Are the Russians ready to strike a deal? Have a funny feeling the Globals will be the next Sputnik!! Ready for Lift-off? Spanky.
Thu Mar 11 20:20:59 EST 1999
wally: spanky: i am ready to lift off since months although i don't think it will be sputnik like. russia was always ready to cut a deal, monsieur camdessus was not; but there is just no alternative. i also don't believe we get a deal before primakov and and gore meet. my best guess for a deal is not before end of april. hope i am wrong and we have something tangible before that.
Thu Mar 11 20:27:27 EST 1999
wally: al gore: i doubt that he will lead the greatest nation on earth into the next millenium. from my point of view he is too much focused on the "spotted owl", but i admire and like him because i think he is -unlike his present master- a man of integrity and honesty. in case he makes it, tipper will screen all females in a radius of 50 meters of the oral office.
Thu Mar 11 20:30:18 EST 1999
anonymous: clip, clip, clip and russia, go, go go! quiet watcher.
Thu Mar 11 21:03:50 EST 1999
anonymous: Wally. O.K. maybe I agree about Gore. But can't see Primo meeting with George W., can you? It is very significant he is meeting with Gore and not Clinton. Don't you think?
Thu Mar 11 21:09:09 EST 1999
anonymous: Can Mr Primakov keep it up? Having consolidated power, say the optimists, he will now move faster, reorganise his government and strike a deal with the IMF, which in turn will bring more credits, like those already promised by the World Bank and Japan. Much of Russia’s debt mountain will be forgiven or restructured. Reform, in short, will continue. And Russia—of late, resentful and surly—might even show a more friendly and co-operative face to the rest of the world. This week's ECONOMIST
Thu Mar 11 22:36:50 EST 1999
wally: primakov/gore. i see a significance too but not necessarily a positive one. if all goes well clinton will have the laurels, if something goes wrong, well it was only the vice-president. most probably clinton is afraid of the hardliners in senate and congress who falsely make a big fuss about the tax payers money. getting russia on her feet again and avoiding a new arms race is a better way to protect the US tax payer.
Fri Mar 12 00:53:09 EST 1999
anonymous: Any news on Ecuador ?, has the President make any announcements as 03/11 PM ? Thanks
Fri Mar 12 00:55:05 EST 1999
anonymous: Hey Wally, who is this imposter.. not the same i.d. as you.. Spanky.
Fri Mar 12 02:35:05 EST 1999
Cciano: Ecuador's Central Bank directorium has resigned.
Fri Mar 12 03:12:50 EST 1999
anonymous: Hey Spanky. Wally has 2 IDs, you've got NONE
Fri Mar 12 07:22:30 EST 1999
wally: no impostor! it's really me. ID sometimes different (only two) due to use of different ISPs and computers.
Fri Mar 12 07:30:29 EST 1999
anonymous: your coment is stuped, the central bank of ecuador no resing.
Fri Mar 12 07:59:45 EST 1999
Cciano: First notice of resign this morning: http://finanzen.de.yahoo.com/schlagzeilen/120399/kreditwirtschaft/921219842-2215379058.html (AP/VWD) Second notice dementi: http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990311/bom.html (Reuters) Ok. let's see if there is further information. Rgds.
Fri Mar 12 08:06:00 EST 1999
Cciano: Ok. The first notice they had resigned (http://finanzen.de.yahoo.com/schlagzeilen/120399/kreditwirtschat/921219842-2215379085.html)(AP/VWD). The dementi follows in http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990311/bom.html (Reuters) Let's see if there is further information. Rgds.
Fri Mar 12 09:28:02 EST 1999
anonymous: Ecuadoreans grappled on Friday with a series of harsh economic measures, including fuel price hikes and freezes on many bank deposits, designed by the government to bring the nation back from the brink of chaos.
Fri Mar 12 10:10:42 EST 1999
anonymous: Sorry, but Cciano is right. Ecuador's Central Bank Directoriom has resigned yesterday, after the economic measures.
Fri Mar 12 10:41:58 EST 1999
JPC: Jamil Mahuad said the country has secured $530 million in multilateral aid commitments from the Inter-American Development Bank, World Bank and Andean Development Corp and would reopen its banks Monday. He expects to sign with the International Monetary Fund in the next few weeks. Yesterday Central Bank chief Luis Jacome resigned.
Fri Mar 12 12:22:40 EST 1999
anonymous: Analysts say Ecuador, which is already in arrears to the Paris Club of official creditors, would be more likely to default on official than commercial debt
Fri Mar 12 12:48:38 EST 1999
Omar: Ecuador is taking the hard steps nedded to come out ot its crisis, I agree with the analyst that said: "I don't think they will default, but I wouldn't go around recommending it to my grandmother.", after all we as EM investors have to be willing to ride these storms. Happy clip clip clip to everybody !!!
Fri Mar 12 13:17:16 EST 1999
Cciano: Hahaha, Omar, parece que ya estas limando las tijeras. Saludos
Fri Mar 12 15:30:23 EST 1999
anonymous: forget all analysts. trust your instinct. and clip, clip, clip. quiet watcher.
Fri Mar 12 17:59:07 EST 1999
anonymous: cs first boston breaks with major banks on russia debt negotiations
Fri Mar 12 18:38:37 EST 1999
anonymous: divide et impera!
Fri Mar 12 18:52:51 EST 1999
anonymous: On Thursday, Yavlinsky had a long talk with President Boris Yeltsin at the Central Clinical Hospital. The content of their talks has not been disclosed to the media, but the daily suggested Yeltsin was doing a little reconnaissance before making a new, important government appointment. Yeltsin is now being cornered by the leftist opposition, which has entered the government and is threatening to reverse the economic course. The daily wrote that Yeltsin could have made one of the two propositions to Grigory Yavlinsky -- to head the government or to become Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov's first deputy responsible for the economy. The second is more probable, because the Duma would not approve Yavlinsky's nomination to the post of prime minister. It is not guaranteed that Yavlinsky would accept either of the two proposals, but the daily commented that he might because Yeltsin is forced to make major concessions, fearing that otherwise Russia will find itself in an economic blockade. Primakov wanted to have Yavlinsky as his first deputy. Now, First Deputy Prime Minister Yury Maslyukov's failure in this post has become obvious, and corruption charges have marred him. Yavlinsky has become the best figure for this post. The Yabloko leader has absolutely clean reputation both inside and outside the country, and his previous condition of having Yabloko people in 12 key Cabinet posts can now be accepted. <<<<<<ROCK ON, WALLY!!!!!!!!
Fri Mar 12 18:54:13 EST 1999
anonymous: On Thursday, Yavlinsky had a long talk with President Boris Yeltsin at the Central Clinical Hospital. The content of their talks has not been disclosed to the media, but the daily suggested Yeltsin was doing a little reconnaissance before making a new, important government appointment. Yeltsin is now being cornered by the leftist opposition, which has entered the government and is threatening to reverse the economic course. The daily wrote that Yeltsin could have made one of the two propositions to Grigory Yavlinsky -- to head the government or to become Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov's first deputy responsible for the economy. The second is more probable, because the Duma would not approve Yavlinsky's nomination to the post of prime minister. It is not guaranteed that Yavlinsky would accept either of the two proposals, but the daily commented that he might because Yeltsin is forced to make major concessions, fearing that otherwise Russia will find itself in an economic blockade. Primakov wanted to have Yavlinsky as his first deputy. Now, First Deputy Prime Minister Yury Maslyukov's failure in this post has become obvious, and corruption charges have marred him. Yavlinsky has become the best figure for this post. The Yabloko leader has absolutely clean reputation both inside and outside the country, and his previous condition of having Yabloko people in 12 key Cabinet posts can now be accepted.
Fri Mar 12 18:55:15 EST 1999
anonymous: Primakov wanted to have Yavlinsky as his first deputy. Now, First Deputy Prime Minister Yury Maslyukov's failure in this post has become obvious, and corruption charges have marred him. Yavlinsky has become the best figure for this post. The Yabloko leader has absolutely clean reputation both inside and outside the country, and his previous condition of having Yabloko people in 12 key Cabinet posts can now be accepted. << ROCK ON, WALLY!!!!!!!
Sat Mar 13 09:41:31 EST 1999
anonymous: I am getting nervous... Spanky is bullish, he has been my favorite contrary indicator
Sat Mar 13 09:50:13 EST 1999
Puma: I think that Yavlinsky is great news. It means that they want to improve relations with foreigners. I wonder if someone would think again on the idea of a "grand compromise". As you may remember the idea was on the table in 1990. At that time the Bush administration was playing with the idea of a multibillion-dollar aid package in exchange for reforms. Gorvachev sent Yavlinsky to Washington to impress the US, but he also sent Primakov as his superior. To make a long story short, the idea was discharged as the US administration was not sure about Gorbachev's ability to keep his power and as they were afraid that instead of encourage reform it may have delayed reform on top of giving them the chance to make the greatest robbery in history. May history repeat itself? Just a thought.
Sat Mar 13 09:52:04 EST 1999
anonymous: Wally, I have always given Chavez the benefit of the doubt, problem is, there are rising conflicts across the board, within Ministries (military personel w/o prior experience), Central Gov conflicts with States (Chavez stopping help for AD governor while city was being sacked), Invasions of private and public properties (w/o strong condemnation from central Gov.), policy of strong bolivar AND high interest rates (choking off whats left of industry), during the next three months you should see defections in ministries, rising conflicts, scandals based on corruption charges to attack the unions, political parties, judges, some military (well deserved if they were corrupt)... just a difficult climate with strong ECONOMIC implications and a Gov. that wants nothing to do with the economy... So I sold most of my Veni BOND position and moved to Mex Corporates (i.e INNOVA and a couple of other Latins - FARGO ARg.) AND I placed a bet where I see the most UPSIDE in Veni: EQUITIES of exporters (SIVENSA) and the telephone co. CANTV.
Sat Mar 13 10:17:22 EST 1999
anonymous: DEAl with IMF by the end of march?RF euros to 50?BOTH WILL HAPPEN SHORTLY.I'M NOW REALLY BULLISH
Sat Mar 13 11:05:19 EST 1999
wally: yavlinski is indeed good news. what i am worried about is today's article in moscow times "in a not so subtle hint to primakov that he could be r e p l a c e d president yeltsin met with....". a new shake-up of high level posts could mean desaster for the ongoing negotiations!
Sun Mar 14 00:22:30 EST 1999
anonymous: Wally: Yeltsin lighting a fire under Primo to get him moving with the IMF. He knows that Yavlinsky would never be approved by the Duma. So it looks like a Primokov Yavlinksy team. Tell your friends, I ain't bullish just think Russian Globals only 30% undervalued. Also hearing Pakistan refusing to restructure Eurobonds. Think the market should boycott any new deal that comes out with IMF language to allow sharing provisions and easing of convenants for restructuring. Spread the word: BOYCOTT and fight the nonsense coming out of Washington and the Paris Club. BOYCOTT, BOYCOTTT, BOYCOTT.. Let the countries know investors will not be forced into subordination with the highly political official creditors. BOYCOTT and agains, I say BOYCOTT!!!!!

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