Color of the Market Archive, Page #13
Color of the Market A R C H I V E 

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The Color of the Market has been an online meeting place for people interested in emerging market debt since 1996, and has undergone many changes in that time. We have discovered an old archive of Color of the Market messages, covering 5 months starting in late 1998. For the benefit of both old and new Bradynetters, we present this archive untouched.

Note: Back in these days, the forum software was greatly different than the Color of the Market that we are now accustomed to. Without the requirement of registration, the forum began to attract disrupters who would engage in vulgarities, name-calling, impersonation of users, and other childish hijinks. But if you can wade through the nonsense, some of the comments herein are historic, and prophetic.

Enjoy,
IDEAGlobal/BradyNet Staff

Tue Mar 23 20:04:47 EST 1999
wally: gko holders never clipped. there were no coupons. gkos were paid at maturity. just for the record. airstrike on milosevic or not we shall overcome and clip, clip and clip.
Tue Mar 23 21:04:43 EST 1999
anonymous: Primo calls Camadeues from airplane and both agree to meet very soon. Russian bears jump got their nuts caught in a bear trap. "I feel your pain." Bill Clinton
Tue Mar 23 21:07:35 EST 1999
anonymous: Wally.. don't foget GKO's holders had US$30 bn payments coming due in a 3 month window.. no choice but Russia to "bail them in"....
Wed Mar 24 02:57:20 EST 1999
optimist: To sum it up: recent actions by russian authorities are somewhat "cold war" like. No hot war will happen, you might be surprised, by moscow ruled by pragmatists, and they dont want their USD accs with BONY or Chase to be blocked. Apparently some political and military support will be rendered to Serbs. But will that mean economic relations with West will be stopped? Hardly so. We will face very hypocritical policy, where bark and no bite principle will work. Last, guess China may stand up against military action firm (Chinese rep at Sec. Counsil UN already condemned plans of NATO). So, if it really was that simple to start hostilities they would have started by moscow morning.. And, can you, western people tell me , logically and simply - whats the difference between Kurdish problem, North.Ireland problem, Basks problem and Kosovo prob. Is that cos Miloshevich reminds you of communism?????
Wed Mar 24 02:58:20 EST 1999
Pekar: Don’t forget about the energy export prospective and the rising oil prices. I think in a year, having in mind restrictions aimed at lowering the currency outflow from Russia, the reserves will be restored. And the IMF will have to bail out. The most likely to be restructured are PRINs, IANs and MINFIN principal as the interest volume is relatively small. Could anybody advise a good broker for a Russian investor’s Offshore. Regards.
Wed Mar 24 03:45:13 EST 1999
anonymous: I will tell you: He and his govt are killing white Europeans.. no comparison to No Ireland
Wed Mar 24 03:54:38 EST 1999
anonymous: To Pekar: http://www.bil.lu
Wed Mar 24 04:50:11 EST 1999
optimist: Excuse me anon, why not for a change invade into or simply bomb moscow during Chechen war??
Wed Mar 24 05:34:47 EST 1999
anonymous: let it be, Optimist. You can't expect westerners to be informed on the mulitethnic tensions within CIS. But you eventually admit there are 2nd thoughts re Slobodan's policy even in Moscow? Regards, Spadolini
Wed Mar 24 08:24:22 EST 1999
anonymous: cheetah, where is your big dip?
Wed Mar 24 08:47:36 EST 1999
anonymous: http://www.bil.lu - expensive (trading department has to go through outside brokers) and not flexible enough for deals in emerging markets bonds.
Wed Mar 24 09:24:55 EST 1999
JPC: Don’t be fooled by Brazilian local bond-market health. The issue of 28-day National Treasury Letters (LTN) was 14 times over-subscribed. The Treasury sold R500m ($271.7m) at a pre-fixed yield of 42.8%, well below the benchmark interest rate of 45%. The lively interest suggests fixed income investors believe interest rates are headed south, and soon. You have to keep a very short time horizon on Brazil. The situation there is too dynamic and fluid to predict anything more than a few weeks out.
Wed Mar 24 09:35:14 EST 1999
JMC: To: JPC, sharp comment on Brazil, I agree with you 100% - stay short-term, any idea of how the Brazilian Real might react to a Chinese Deval?
Wed Mar 24 09:43:08 EST 1999
JPC: In J. Sachs words "There would be some weakening (in other currencies in the region) but it won't trigger anything because it is not like in June 1997 when everything was on the edge of the cliff"
Wed Mar 24 09:49:33 EST 1999
anonymous: It’s IMF money which has saved the real from a massive depreciation, and helped maintain some semblance of confidence in Brazilian markets. Fund cash helps Brazil relieve pressure on the currency when foreign debts come due. The government and corporations have to repay billions of dollars a month to overseas creditors. In the next week alone, more than $1bn of corporate eurobonds mature. Foreign debt obligations in April are set to be double their level in March. Money is also leaving the country as investors continue to weed out Brazilian assets from their portfolios. Exports could bring some relief, because a weaker real makes Brazilian goods cheaper abroad. Even so, the March trade surplus was small -- just $46m -- and could easily slip back into deficit as it did the month before. The trade balance hasn’t gone into a big enough surplus to help the government stop leaning on the IMF The IMF will almost certainly approve the next $9.2bn instalment of its $41.5bn aid package after the two sides meet on March 31. But further Fund assistance, and Brazil’s economic recuperation, will depend on the Brazilian government’s ability to stick to IMF dictats. That means keeping a lid on spending and controlling inflation. Getting the balance wrong could prompt the Fund to suspend aid payments. The real would drop as investors scrambled to sell their dollar-denominated assets and speculators reared their heads again. The debt market would also take a hit.
Wed Mar 24 09:49:57 EST 1999
anonymous: It’s IMF money which has saved the real from a massive depreciation, and helped maintain some semblance of confidence in Brazilian markets. Fund cash helps Brazil relieve pressure on the currency when foreign debts come due. The government and corporations have to repay billions of dollars a month to overseas creditors. In the next week alone, more than $1bn of corporate eurobonds mature. Foreign debt obligations in April are set to be double their level in March. Money is also leaving the country as investors continue to weed out Brazilian assets from their portfolios. Exports could bring some relief, because a weaker real makes Brazilian goods cheaper abroad. Even so, the March trade surplus was small -- just $46m -- and could easily slip back into deficit as it did the month before. The trade balance hasn’t gone into a big enough surplus to help the government stop leaning on the IMF The IMF will almost certainly approve the next $9.2bn instalment of its $41.5bn aid package after the two sides meet on March 31. But further Fund assistance, and Brazil’s economic recuperation, will depend on the Brazilian government’s ability to stick to IMF dictats. That means keeping a lid on spending and controlling inflation. Getting the balance wrong could prompt the Fund to suspend aid payments. The real would drop as investors scrambled to sell their dollar-denominated assets and speculators reared their heads again. The debt market would also take a hit.
Wed Mar 24 09:50:56 EST 1999
anonymous: It’s IMF money which has saved the real from a massive depreciation, and helped maintain some semblance of confidence in Brazilian markets. Fund cash helps Brazil relieve pressure on the currency when foreign debts come due. Exports could bring some relief, because a weaker real makes Brazilian goods cheaper abroad. Even so, the March trade surplus was small -- just $46m -- and could easily slip back into deficit as it did the month before. The trade balance hasn’t gone into a big enough surplus to help the government stop leaning on the IMF Further Fund assistance, and Brazil’s economic recuperation, will depend on the Brazilian government’s ability to stick to IMF dictats. That means keeping a lid on spending and controlling inflation. Getting the balance wrong could prompt the Fund to suspend aid payments. The real would drop as investors scrambled to sell their dollar-denominated assets and speculators reared their heads again. The debt market would also take a hit.
Wed Mar 24 10:31:28 EST 1999
Heavy: Optimist: In Serbia there is no official effort, nor any unofficial effort to integrate ethnic Albanians into Yugoslavia. Indeed Albaninas are banned along with dogs and Croats from discos, cafes, and hotels. The official and unofficial agenda is to systematically erase their economic wherewithal (Albanians are not permitted to be engineers for example) and culture (Albanina language has been banned in public schools since 1993). While, correctly, you state that there are some similarities to the Kurdish situation, I think it is incorrect for you to pretend that the UK's official and unofficial agenda with Ireland, or Spains with the Basques, in any way ressembles, Yugoslavia/Serbia's with the Albanians. Communism was always a good-on-paper idea-- in any case.
Wed Mar 24 10:38:30 EST 1999
Heavy: In Brazil there is a longer lag between deval and export strength than between deval and import weakness. In this particular case exporters are having a hard time getting credit lines, though the situation is slowly improving. Another corporate, Bradesco, to issue $100mn global this or next week. Good news. Though no doubt the domestic debt stock, 80% of which is floating (i.e. Selic at 44.98%) linked remains MAJOR risk.
Wed Mar 24 10:41:54 EST 1999
JMC: To Heavy, there is no question that the Serbian treatment of Albanians is extreme and personally I think heavy handed action from the UN is probably justified, (sometimes you have to teach people a lesson) but I can see how other people are critical of the UN's selective shows of force. A bit of equality would be nice! To JPC, I was more interested in the Real rather than SE Asian currecies in the event of a Chinese devaluation - although Anon was pretty explicit in what he thinks. As far as the other Asian currencies go, there won't be a massive davaluation in THB and IDR but you would have to be crazy not to expect another big slip as these countries are just beginning to benefit from renewed investor interest.
Wed Mar 24 10:51:41 EST 1999
optimist: Very strange sequence of events - Serbs give hints they are ready to negotiate. China firmly obstructing to mil.strike. US still obstinate. BUT NO AIR STRIKE STILL!! I still think theres chance - if NATO substituted by UN (peace keeping force) or OSCE. As far as I remember it is NATO's interefernce what makes Serbs dizzy. Excuse me, humanism proponents, but NATO by its charter may use force only if one of NATO members is threatened, and such a use of force may bear only defensive nature.(And yes, its not a bad idea to pick up some euros)
Wed Mar 24 10:55:05 EST 1999
optimist: Pekar, if you worked on fixed income side and known in this community try ScoGen Paris, think they will readily open acc
Wed Mar 24 11:08:30 EST 1999
optimist: Heavy: I may be blind, but theres some deep cultural difference between Christians and Muslims. ITS NOT TYPICAL for christians to kill, burn, torture etc. These features are more coherent to Muslims. Thats why I think that both chroatian and albanian stories may somewhat be different than displayed by CNN. Think of the following - Albanian problem popped up agressively only in 1998 , not earlier, when Serbs were considerably weakened in the hostilities in other parts of yugoslavia!!! dont trust everything you see on CNN.
Wed Mar 24 11:20:15 EST 1999
anonymous: <IS NOT TYPICAL for christians to kill, burn, torture etc> Sure...ask the Spanish jews, Latam aborigens, Protestant in the UK, etc about those friendly Chistians.
Wed Mar 24 11:38:06 EST 1999
Heavy: Optimist: don't watch CNN, Albanian "problem" popped up in 1389 (June 28th to be exact). Serbs were fatally weakened by Turk advance at Kosovo Polje ("Field of Blackbirds"). They never forgot.
Wed Mar 24 11:44:26 EST 1999
optimist: Anon: Look.. I knew you would say that, because its simple. You forgot to mention crusades , btw. but its also silly - cos what I mean is - cultural vector of muslims is more agressive than thaT of christians. Islamic tradition puts much more emphasis on power tools. Gentlemen,try http://forum.msk.ru/files/981017080533.html, if you have russian speaking persons in your office, and have this article translated, you mite have different view on Kosovo problem...
Wed Mar 24 11:56:45 EST 1999
anonymous: the fast track of this link is blocked, Optimist. need www....
Wed Mar 24 12:22:47 EST 1999
anonymous: Did anybody see the comments yesterday from the chairman of BP Amoco saying that he anticipates lower oil prices to continue? If prices fall again , how long before OPEC and non-opec members abandon production cuts.
Wed Mar 24 12:44:21 EST 1999
anonymous: But Tass said military staff were considering stationing tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus -- which borders new NATO member Poland. Ivanov reiterated Moscow could reconsider its cooperation pact with NATO. He also said Russia could reconsider its commitment to an international arms embargo on Yugoslavia.<<<<<<<<WHAT THE HELL IS THIS????!!!!!!!!??????????????????
Wed Mar 24 12:51:14 EST 1999
anonymous: considering a new bogus cold war? Unbelievable.
Wed Mar 24 13:05:46 EST 1999
anonymous: Clinton should have resigned in early 1997. This is the consequences of the most famous B.J. of all time!
Wed Mar 24 13:25:44 EST 1999
anonymous: Michel Camdessus, the managing director of the International Monetary Fund, is due to arrive in Moscow for talks on March 27, Itar-Tass news agency
Wed Mar 24 14:36:18 EST 1999
anonymous: "I would not expect that this will have any effect on negotiations with the IMF," Rubin said, answering a question whether the bombing in Kosovo and Russia's decision to scrap a visit to the United States would impact Russian debt talks.
Wed Mar 24 15:54:54 EST 1999
anonymous: They are bombing!
Wed Mar 24 16:05:35 EST 1999
Cheetah: Yea, I was HOPING to buy some R18's under 24...
Wed Mar 24 16:25:46 EST 1999
anonymous: if Russia should deliver military equipment to Serbia openely (she did so more or less discretly) & NATO soldiers are victims, the IMF aid could be a problem, politically. rgds Spadolini
Wed Mar 24 16:27:19 EST 1999
anonymous: Now what is Fidel Castro going to do ??? He can't travel anymore... I am waiting .... Lord Baltasar Garzon
Wed Mar 24 16:27:39 EST 1999
anonymous: The new Central Bank preisdent in Venezuela came out saying he was going to RESTRUCTURE the internal debt- Incredible !! TEM's (veni equivalent to Russia's GKO's). He also said he want'd to be like Greenspan's Fed... hay que guardar las distancias... EL ORACULO
Wed Mar 24 16:29:00 EST 1999
anonymous: To lord Baltasar: that will be the day !
Wed Mar 24 16:29:26 EST 1999
wally: when i hear that nonsense "it's not typical for christians.. but for moslems" my intestines cramp. how can one be so ignorant?!
Wed Mar 24 16:31:25 EST 1999
Cheetah: We will have Rhetoric out of Moscow... what else... unless the Chinitos get pis.... and decide to devalue to get back at the USA
Wed Mar 24 18:59:02 EST 1999
anonymous: is that true of the chinese?
Wed Mar 24 22:09:12 EST 1999
anonymous: I think Optimist is suffering from brain balkanization. I suggest he read two recent books: Sven Lindqvist, Exterminate all the Brutes (1996) and Mark Cocker, Rivers of Blood, River of Gold (1998), from which I quote: "American soldiers under Andrew Jackson's command went further, skinning Indians to make boot leather and practising a unique form of cannibalism, when they burned down a house full of warriors and ate potatoes from the cellar blasted in human fat."
Thu Mar 25 03:59:28 EST 1999
optimist: I dont think balkanization is much worse than CNNization.. I m really surprsed - bradynetters are so independent and deep in their thoughts on emerg mkts!! I admire your judgements and assesments, your knowledge... But to look obstinately at Balkan p problem as at the problem of milosevic - isnt it unadequate?? In all countries theres an array of opinions in the society. apparently there has to be variety in yugoslavia as well (okok in serbian part of it) But practically all Christian -slavic part of the country unanimous. So is that the nation of killers robbers and segregators?? milosevic rules the country for 10 years - and no plots, no coups... So , is that the wrong nation or what??
Thu Mar 25 04:43:01 EST 1999
anonymous: the most demanding challenge in life of a (would be) sovereign individual is building an own big picture of the world & it's zoo of men. rgds Spadolini
Thu Mar 25 04:50:41 EST 1999
Cciano: >>own big picture of the world & its zoo of men<< nothing to add. rgds.
Thu Mar 25 06:12:54 EST 1999
anonymous: Dear Optimist: I agree 100% with you. Every country has its own problems and find its own solutions. The solution which Mr. Milosevic found for Kosovo is certainly far from being ideal, in the contrary. But it is his problem and this nation's problems. Mr. Clinton compared Milosevic to Hitler. He showed that he is as inaccurate with history as he was with the truth in his own affairs. Hitler annexed countries, put millions of jews in the Holocaust and did the worst things. What did Mr. Milosevic do? He is fighting against a "liberation-army" - by the way a real army in uniform and all that - who does want to make a segregation of the nation. I remember you that in Switzerland 150 years ago four catholic cantons wanted to allow the Jesuits to be teacher - against the constituion of Switzerland which wisely forbid teaching of Jesuits in Switzerland, and the confederation sent a whole army against these three cantons because they broke the constitution. All indoor wars in a country have something particular.. B u t t h a t i s not a r e a s o n for a NATO to intervene. Otherwise Nato should intervene in Holland against the drug commerce, in Belgium against the violating of little girls, in Switzerland to find the jewish gold and in Norther Irland to keep the peace. Nothing of all that is thinkable. Why just take the smallest country with big problems but nothing else, and start the most brutal bombing ever since world war II. It is a shame, a shame, a shame. And the world changed yesterday evening. We have now the most brutal domination of America, of his president, of this moralistic country which produces all the pornography you only can think of but which gives himself as the purest pure being of the creation. There was once a Swiss who made a song "I love America", but I have to say today : I hate America".
Thu Mar 25 06:16:02 EST 1999
anonymous: Dear Optimist: I agree 100% with you. Every country has its own problems and find its own solutions. The solution which Mr. Milosevic found for Kosovo is certainly far from being ideal, in the contrary. But it is his problem and this nation's problems. Mr. Clinton compared Milosevic to Hitler. He showed that he is as inaccurate with history as he was with the truth in his own affairs. Hitler annexed countries, put millions of jews in the Holocaust and did the worst things. What did Mr. Milosevic do? He is fighting against a "liberation-army" - by the way a real army in uniform and all that - who does want to make a segregation of the nation. I remember you that in Switzerland 150 years ago four catholic cantons wanted to allow the Jesuits to be teacher - against the constituion of Switzerland which wisely forbid teaching of Jesuits in Switzerland, and the confederation sent a whole army against these three cantons because they broke the constitution. All indoor wars in a country have something particular.. B u t t h a t i s not a r e a s o n for a NATO to intervene. Otherwise Nato should intervene in Holland against the drug commerce, in Belgium against the violating of little girls, in Switzerland to find the jewish gold and in Norther Irland to keep the peace. Nothing of all that is thinkable. Why just take the smallest country with big problems but nothing else, and start the most brutal bombing ever since world war II. It is a shame, a shame, a shame. And the world changed yesterday evening.
Thu Mar 25 06:17:18 EST 1999
anonymous: Dear Optimist: I agree 100% with you. Every country has its own problems and find its own solutions. The solution which Mr. Milosevic found for Kosovo is certainly far from being ideal, in the contrary. But it is his problem and this nation's problems. Mr. Clinton compared Milosevic to Hitler. He showed that he is as inaccurate with history as he was with the truth in his own affairs. Hitler annexed countries, put millions of jews in the Holocaust and did the worst things. What did Mr. Milosevic do? He is fighting against a "liberation-army" - by the way a real army in uniform and all that - who does want to make a segregation of the nation. I remember you that in Switzerland 150 years ago four catholic cantons wanted to allow the Jesuits to be teacher - against the constituion of Switzerland which wisely forbid teaching of Jesuits in Switzerland, and the confederation sent a whole army against these three cantons because they broke the constitution. All indoor wars in a country have something particular.. B u t t h a t i s not a r e a s o n for a NATO to intervene. Otherwise Nato should intervene in Holland against the drug commerce, in Belgium against the violating of little girls, in Switzerland to find the jewish gold and in Norther Irland to keep the peace. Nothing of all that is thinkable. Why just take the smallest country with big problems but nothing else, and start the most brutal bombing ever since world war II.
Thu Mar 25 06:20:50 EST 1999
anonymous: Dear Optimist: I agree 100% with you. Every country has its own problems and find its own solutions. The solution which Mr. Milosevic found for Kosovo is certainly far from being ideal, in the contrary. But it is his problem and this nation's problems. Mr. Clinton compared Milosevic to Hitler. He showed that he is as inaccurate with history as he was with the truth in his own affairs. Hitler annexed countries, put millions of jews in the Holocaust and did the worst things. What did Mr. Milosevic do? He is fighting against a "liberation-army" - by the way a real army in uniform and all that - who does want to make a segregation of the nation. I remember you that in Switzerland 150 years ago four catholic cantons wanted to allow the Jesuits to be teacher - against the constituion of Switzerland which wisely forbid teaching of Jesuits in Switzerland, and the confederation sent a whole army against these three cantons because they broke the constitution. All indoor wars in a country have something particular.. B u t t h a t i s not a r e a s o n for a NATO to intervene.
Thu Mar 25 06:22:16 EST 1999
anonymous: Dear Optimist: I agree 100% with you. Every country has its own problems and find its own solutions. The solution which Mr. Milosevic found for Kosovo is certainly far from being ideal, in the contrary. But it is his problem and this nation's problems. Mr. Clinton compared Milosevic to Hitler. He showed that he is as inaccurate with history as he was with the truth in his own affairs. Hitler annexed countries, put millions of jews in the Holocaust and did the worst things. What did Mr. Milosevic do? He is fighting against a "liberation-army" - by the way a real army in uniform and all that - who does want to make a segregation of the nation. I remember you that in Switzerland 150 years ago four catholic cantons wanted to allow the Jesuits to be teacher - against the constituion of Switzerland which wisely forbid teaching of Jesuits in Switzerland, and the confederation sent a whole army against these three cantons because they broke the constitution.
Thu Mar 25 06:32:42 EST 1999
anonymous: suite.....All indoor wars are particular. But if we let Nato and the Americans intervene where ever they think they can do it, where will it finish: why not intervene in Holland against the drug commerce or in Belgium to protect the little girls or in N Irland to keep the peace or in the Congo or or or in Switzerland to find the jewish gold .... But here they go and take just one of the smallest countries in the world with big problems and start the most brutal bombing since world war II. But we see one thing: A new era began yesterday. The era of a brutal American domination of the world. Everything is allowed to America, its President can say the untruth and overlive in his charge, he can organize bombing where ever he wants and the 15 idiots of chiefs of European countries say yes respectuively do not say anythig. There was once a song of a Swiss Singer: " I love America". Today it should be " I hate America"....
Thu Mar 25 07:34:22 EST 1999
wally: gentlemen. we had our fair share of america bashing in this forum. in fact i wanted to add my share (of bashing) too, but we should really get back to business. latest news are positive, e.g. "russia will not use extreme force" / "food aid to russia is going to be unaffected" / "russia will pay all debt in april and may even without new IMF money" / and last not least "monsieur camdessus will go to moscow". as harsh (for the people who died and will die in serbia) it may sound, my opinion is that the attack on serbia has improved the chances of russia to obtain more aid in kind and money.
Thu Mar 25 07:36:53 EST 1999
anonymous: atta boy wally. we should bash now el oraculo where the emphasis on the name is on CULO! quiet watcher.
Thu Mar 25 07:38:39 EST 1999
anonymous: yep! this culo thinks with his culo and not with his brains. obasanjo
Thu Mar 25 07:51:51 EST 1999
anonymous: General Olusegun Obasanjo. Nigeria. former head of state. born in 1937 in abeokuta, he joined the nigerian army in 1958 and had risen to the rank of lieutnant-colonel by outbreak of the civil war in 1967. in january 1970, he accepted the surrender of the biafran forces. appointed chief of staff in 1975, he took over as head of state after the assasination of General Murtala Muhammed the following year, continuing the policy of returning the country to civilian rule.
Thu Mar 25 07:58:06 EST 1999
anonymous: ...in 1979 he handed over on schedule to the elected civilian president, Shehu Shagari, and devoted himself to farming and a role as an elder statesman. he has beena trenchant critic of the economic policies of Ibrahim Babangida's government and expressed support for a one-party state as the only workable form of civilian government in Nigeria.
Thu Mar 25 08:05:54 EST 1999
optimist: Gentlemen, I want peacful setlement of Kosovo conflict more then anybody else in Moscow. I want rationality from moscow leaders Their rationality is my money. But all the West got as a result of this war is skyrocketing anti americanism. As you know Internet in russia is still a toy and a tool for just a few. Internet users in moscow are normally young and mid-aged professionals. So - in political forums approx 90% of participants express agressive ideas towards US and NATO and intensely supportive for Serbs. Thats what you got. Now implication. If society is antiamerican, whats the stance of its government? Excuse me, but whatever you say, your positions in Rus bonds MAKE YOU CARE WHAT RUSSIANS THINK OF KOSOVO and NATO.
Thu Mar 25 08:26:34 EST 1999
anonymous: "Russia cannot service the debt it inherited from the Soviet Union in hard currency and is in talks with several countries on repaying it in kind,..."
Thu Mar 25 08:27:46 EST 1999
anonymous: I agree; the West will discover that Clinton's policies towards RUS, largely endorsed by EU, will help to create a more natio- listic leadership. You stressed this point months ago. rgds. Spadolini
Thu Mar 25 09:29:11 EST 1999
anonymous: Who cares what Russia thinks about Kosovo? There is very little they can do. Even some of their EE friends are in Nato now. Russia is not a superpower anymore and the sooner they learn about it the better. The good think is that the americans will buy them with IMF money for no intervention in Kosovo. Yes,... buy them like a cheap spy with no principles... Gents take your own conclusions.
Thu Mar 25 09:53:24 EST 1999
anonymous: disappointment; russian foreign policy not even taken seriously by the Serbs. But how will this humiliated country RUS behave with her battered ego? rgds. Spadolini
Thu Mar 25 09:58:58 EST 1999
anonymous: The big surprise will - maybe - be that the Russians will not be bought by the Americans and their IMF money. Do you really think that Primakov had made a u-turn if he would be as you say. But the sad thing is that people with visions like you about Europe and the rest of the world are having the saying in America. Imagine that they are bombing a people who was one of the first to throw out - in 1941 - the Nazis. They have always been close friends to the french and I would not be surprised if one would tell me that many Serbs died for the liberation of Europe in WW II. And now these ignorant Americans bomb this little country like never any country has been bombed. Just for the gloire of Mr. and Mrs. Clinton.
Thu Mar 25 10:17:49 EST 1999
anonymous: The Russians did the exact same thing they arr doing now when Allied forces attacked Iraq. They protest, complain and threaten, but at the end of the day there isn't much they can do about it. The Serbs that died in WWII died defending their own country from the Nazi's. It is the Americans who came from across the Atlantic who fought and died for the liberation of Europe. Get the story straight! Saludos, Roland.
Thu Mar 25 11:14:17 EST 1999
Heavy: Kosovo army is just a few farmers in pickup trucks, not a "real army," as you claim. Meanwhile, Camdessus to return to Moscow Saturday (though not yet confirmed by Fund sources). Wars often bring with them debt forgiveness to the well-behaved (note Egypt in 1991 got a 45% write-down from US and Paris Club and went on to emerging mkt superstardom....(fiscal deficit 1.0%/GDP, BBB- credit). But what will debt forgiveness mean to Russian Eurobonds specifically. Paris Club/IMF enforcement of comparability of terms remains a tough argument so say I and don't tell me it's last year's snow.........
Thu Mar 25 11:33:33 EST 1999
anonymous: http://www.weightwatcher.com
Thu Mar 25 13:01:38 EST 1999
anonymous: Heavy.. Haven't you been listening to Larry Summers. Comparability is dead.. And Define Comparability, please!
Thu Mar 25 13:04:53 EST 1999
anonymous: How can a country with a space station and a world class satellite lauch system default on their sovereign eurobonds? doubt it.. maybe Russia is just another Nigeria with a space station and 70k nukes, but I doubt it. Clearly a liquidity and theft problem.
Thu Mar 25 13:10:02 EST 1999
anonymous: 03-25-99 Anonymous: The big surprise will - maybe - be that the Russians will not be bought by the Americans and their IMF money. Do you really think that Primakov had made a u-turn if he would be a<<< This sounds like the justification of the invasion of the Sudatland. Just think of world with Pax Americana, my internation friends. That is a very scary thought...
Thu Mar 25 13:35:49 EST 1999
anonymous: The newly formed SATO after prodding by Billibob is preparing the intervention of the Colombian guerrilla groups... El OraCulo
Thu Mar 25 13:40:09 EST 1999
anonymous: Also Presi Chavez said that the massive "invasions" of private property was a problem of "Human rights" and NOT a problem of PRIVAT PROPERTY RIGHTS... Cuba all over again....El oraCulo
Thu Mar 25 14:10:35 EST 1999
Trawler: Reuters @1:04 eastern has a report from Maslyukov which is rather upbeat for all Rus Euro holders.
Thu Mar 25 16:17:41 EST 1999
anonymous: Proposal to swap IAN's PRIN's and MINFIN's for land in Siberia recieving chilly welcome from resigned investor's >>>> Euro's jump 10 points !!
Thu Mar 25 16:39:07 EST 1999
anonymous: Everyone in here is very concerned and concentrated in Russia. I think that is fine, but during the past 4-5 weeks, we have seen Brazil Sovgn jump 10-11pts, Brazil Corps very similar and the same has happend elsewhere like Argentina and Mexico to a lesser extent. During this same period, when i look at the px fluctuation of Russian Euros, Min Fin, Prins and Ians....they are at about the same px level as they were during the same period described above. I am invested in Russia in all of these bonds, there is little i can do about it as i went in at much higher prices, but in the interim i have taken advantage of major moves elsewhere. At the end of the day, we are Emerging Market investors.....and that means a wide array of investments opportunities
Thu Mar 25 19:34:23 EST 1999
anonymous: http://www.heyidiot.com/
Thu Mar 25 20:31:08 EST 1999
anonymous: thanks for putting my brief c.v. on the net, although there is much more to it. obasanjo
Thu Mar 25 20:33:09 EST 1999
wally: how come maslyukov is piping down? very unusual for this big mouth.
Thu Mar 25 20:35:40 EST 1999
wally: heavy: hate me! but it is still snow of last year. want to bet?
Thu Mar 25 20:37:01 EST 1999
anonymous: CULO start thinking with your brains.
Thu Mar 25 21:03:15 EST 1999
anonymous: Some big deals being cut in Washington between U.S. govie and Russian govie. No doubt IMF deal is coming. No doubt. Russian Globals the buy of the century.
Thu Mar 25 22:38:23 EST 1999
anonymous: it's russian euros. there are no russian globals! but i agree they are a buy. quiet watcher.
Fri Mar 26 00:02:22 EST 1999
anonymous: wishful thinking, withful thinging, the "art" of speculating.
Fri Mar 26 00:34:37 EST 1999
anonymous: 03-26-99 Anonymous: wishful thinking, withful thinging, the "art" of speculating. << the poverty of ignorance... russian bonds and equities the top performing assets this year.
Fri Mar 26 00:40:30 EST 1999
anonymous: Even after Primakov canceled his trip to Washington on Tuesday after he was already en route, in protest of the decision to bomb, Yevgeny Adamov, Russia's atomic energy minister, stayed in Washington. He had arrived several days early to complete the negotiations on the sale of uranium from Russian nuclear warheads -- an accord worth billions of dollars to Russia. Friday's NY Times<<< Read it and weep, DICKHEAD!
Fri Mar 26 07:26:32 EST 1999
Alexander: http://www.berlinerboerse.de/KURSINFO/ANL_FV/FF0025.html not bad in Berlin today,greetings to all!!!
Fri Mar 26 09:35:00 EST 1999
JPC: Good Morning. A very quiet but slightly stronger start to Emerging Market debt prices this morning with the market unperturbed by the Kosovo situation and instead responding to the better situation in Brazil as the Real strengthens and interest rates drop and market starts to talk to renewed capital inflows. Mexico issued a new 6 year bond completing its funding for the year but putting other MEX Assets under a little pressure as the market switched into the new issue. Brazil C bonds are trading around 61.50 from at 61.25 close and are expected to continue to consolidate in a 60.00-62.00 range on the day. Russian Euros are also holding their gains from yesterday and look likely to edge higher on the day in anticipation of Camdessus´s visit to Moscow tomorrow. Euros have been the most active over the past few days but Russian demand continues for Min Fin TR 4 and 6.
Fri Mar 26 09:39:10 EST 1999
anonymous: The Vneshtorgbank paid off the quarterly coupon worth $3.6m on eurobonds with floating interest in due time. The bonds were issued in 1997 to raise $200m.
Fri Mar 26 09:47:28 EST 1999
anonymous: JPC: Good Morning. Why the demand for MinFin 4 and 6? Why not the 5 and 7? Also, I remember several debates that MinFin 3 was included in the defaulted bonds, but now somw reports saying that they will be paid. Any commebts? Regards, Shon Ka.
Fri Mar 26 11:04:35 EST 1999
JMC: I will repeat my earlier comments, I just cannot believe that the stresses in the emerging markets recovr s o quickly. Iether this is a real market where risks are analysed and quantified or we are sheep russing from one crisis to the next. Has any off the asset buyers who are keen on Asia been out to Kore and Thailand and checked out how the economies there are doing with 9%+ unemployment or are they just following the rating agencies who KNOW NOTHING. Can you really tell me that Brazil can be so bad and then recover in the space of 3 months. I am genuinly interested because I had not realised how our market was such a cowboy business.
Fri Mar 26 11:07:55 EST 1999
Heavy: Wally: I wanna bet, and don't give me this Jan 91 Paris Club cutoff date crap. Romania is a lesson for all of you cutoff people. Though I will admit that globals are probably good buys this afternoon after the 2pt selloff on the 18. Short Bulgaria for Kosovo insurance. Or is there some cheaper Kosovo insurance out there?
Fri Mar 26 12:08:29 EST 1999
Cheetah: Wake up JMC it's allways been a cowboy (pistolero) market and will be allways - we learned from the gringos...
Fri Mar 26 12:09:22 EST 1999
MOSS-TA: I bought yesterday RF28EUROS at 2975 %, then I checked the Brady Net Prices and were at 27-28 %. Do somebody know an honest broker spanish speaking? I thank you in advance for your help. MOSS-TA
Fri Mar 26 12:32:52 EST 1999
JMC: To Cheetah, Yeah, but even the in the dodgy gringo markets some traders and investors learnt how to value the market and not be victims to whatever rumour spread next. Mybe I am just too Naieve for this market! PS to Moss-TA, an honest broker, surely a misnomer if ever I heard one!
Fri Mar 26 12:54:16 EST 1999
anonymous: Has anyone heard the roumor that the Quito government would announce another banking holiday, as it did two weeks ago, to prevent the closure of more banks?
Fri Mar 26 13:01:36 EST 1999
wally: MOSS-TA: don't blame bradynet. the published prices are only indicative and an average from different contributors. your deal yesterday at 29.75 was okay! i have seen actual deals in europe yesterday in rusfed 28 as high as 31.50.
Fri Mar 26 13:05:51 EST 1999
wally: heavy: <paris club> let's wait and see. as far as romania is concerned: no decision and that goes for pakistan too.
Fri Mar 26 13:08:55 EST 1999
anonymous: Costa Rica new issue. CSFB lead manager. Co-leads: JP Morgan, Salomon Smith Barney, Chase and DMG. Fees lead manager: US$811K (0.27% on a commission basis) Republic of Costa Rica US$300 million 144A/Euro 7-10 year Ba1/BB +400/600 bp Pricing on May,30
Fri Mar 26 13:29:39 EST 1999
Anonymous: MOSS-TA-- Call Lehman Brothers London desk. 0171 260 3173 Ask for Jose.
Fri Mar 26 13:33:30 EST 1999
wally: MOSS-TA: deal rusfed18 >>> XS0088543193.FSE 31.50 ums 250.000 +5.70 % 25.03. 12:07 RUSSISCHE FOEDERATION 12.75%, 2028 <<< code-no xxx FSE=frankfurt stock exchange price=31.50 turnover= 250,000 date=mar25 time=12.07. hope you are happy now with your deal.
Fri Mar 26 17:40:28 EST 1999
cheetah: spent all day bidding the R28, mid market, to no avail !! MOSS-ka I agree with JMC you seek a triple contradiction broker-spanish-honest...
Fri Mar 26 17:46:03 EST 1999
Cheetah: By the way where are you my SINNOMBRE friend, did you notice which country did zilch this week (besides Russia/war situation) ??? didn't I tell you....
Fri Mar 26 17:56:08 EST 1999
anonymous: Russian IAN's PRIN's and MINFIN's continued to approach their value this week >>>>> 00000000.000 VIVA LOS EUROS !!!
Sat Mar 27 11:49:51 EST 1999
MOSS-TA: To Anonymous: Thank you for your advice.Do you know if José of Lehman Brothers London desk has an e-mail? Wally: thank you for your information, you're very kind. MOSS-TA
Sat Mar 27 12:00:26 EST 1999
anonymous: RUSSIA has said won't enter the kosovo conflict CAMEDESSUS now talking to primakov and zadornov.A deal is shortly coming.It will be a great week for RF euros.A 10 points rally..a reality!
Sat Mar 27 21:22:00 EST 1999
Cheetah: sh...t my bid didn't get hit !!!
Sun Mar 28 06:44:11 EST 1999
anonymous: Anonymous: I tell you the same thing I told many others with this optimist way to see the things in the near future. I do not think that an IMF agreement will appear in the next week nor in the weeks to come. And my personal idea is that the Russians - maybe - do not even want it so much. Think of the fact that Russia and the US sign last week an agreement of Russia selling Uranium to the US worth 12 bio. US$. So, who knows, the Russians do maybe not even need so much the money of the IMF. At least, and that we have seen several times, they do not go in the knees before the Americans nor the IMF. So Euros 10 points up is not realistic. But think instead of the nice income and forget for another while the price.
Sun Mar 28 07:43:54 EST 1999
wally: i too think that even with an IMF agreement we don't see a 10 point rally soon and i agree with the opinion that it is still a long way and not a matter of 2 weeks only till an agreement is reached. cheetah: if you are really eager to be hit than add a point or two. it will pay in the long run.
Sun Mar 28 08:18:45 EST 1999
anonymous: My opinion is different to yours guys!!I think that deal with IMF IT'S A DONE DEAL and united with uranium deal,the oil price wich is still growing,loans forthcoming from JAPAN-W.BANK AND LAST BUT NOT LEAST THE NEW RULES OF CBR FOR AVOIDING FALSE IMPORT CONTRACTS(wich will boost reserves) will all be supportive of a big rally in the next days for the euros.Time will tell us who's rigth
Sun Mar 28 09:16:26 EST 1999
anonymous: Russia and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have only very slight differences at loan talks, First Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Maslyukov said on Sunday after meeting visiting IMF chief Michel Camdessus.
Sun Mar 28 09:43:35 EST 1999
wally: <time will tell> i very much hope that YOU are right. Maslyukov: big mouth as always.
Sun Mar 28 11:39:41 EST 1999
anonymous: http://www.bradynet.com/e419.html Interesting page with all the yield curves for EM
Sun Mar 28 15:53:10 EST 1999
anonymous: They have since months "only slight differences". Like with the food-aid. Every second day they say the food-aid is arriving tomorrow in the harbor of St. Petersbourg. But nothing is coming. I do not know if somebody of you all followed the food- aid story. It is absolutely great. I put all the news about food-aid together since august 1998 and it gives me a roman which tells me that not the Russians want food-aid, but the Americans and Europeans want to sell their over production and to void their stocks, and certainly fight against the deepest prices of meat in history. Who knows if it is not the same story with the IMF?
Sun Mar 28 19:16:59 EST 1999
Cheetah: Thanks for your advice Wally, but staying midmarket also helps identify how firm the market is... Sinnombre where are you ? Have you seen latin Corp's recently ?? Any "suggestiones" ??
Sun Mar 28 20:36:23 EST 1999
anonymous: for my "book" to keep on clip, clip , clip....
Mon Mar 29 01:26:47 EST 1999
anonymous: A Team of Moscow Mediators Arrives in Yugoslavia With a Plan for Peace http://www.nytimes.com/library/world/europe/032999kosovo-budapest.html
Mon Mar 29 03:54:20 EST 1999
anonymous: in vain!
Mon Mar 29 05:50:38 EST 1999
optimist: Yesterday onlive TV show camdessus was very ambiguous in assesing current meeting with Rus. officials. He pulled Masljukov's leg saying the latter always a bit too optimistic. But later , at same TV show, Mr Chubais, who actually spent hours if not days talking to Camdessus firmly noted: "the tone of Mr camdessus and the way he was assesing the situation suggest the agreement will be reached on monday" thats exactly what Chubais said. Later - Mr Chernomirdin said same thing as Chubais did, and moreover - suggested russia might get not 4 but 8 bio of IMF's funds... So we just have to wait for red news hitting the screens.
Mon Mar 29 05:55:51 EST 1999
Alexander: http://www.berlinerboerse.de/KURSINFO/ANL_FV/FF0025.html DM RusFed up in Germany.greetings to all!
Mon Mar 29 05:59:59 EST 1999
anonymous: TO WALLY:"TIME WILL TELL".I wrote that opinion and exorted you guys to be more optimistic because i had reasons for that.I hope someone of you has bought EARLY THIS MORNING some RF euros!!!THEY alreary are and will EVEN MORE: FLY FLY FLY TO THE BLUE BLUE SKY!!!!!!!!!
Mon Mar 29 06:11:09 EST 1999
anonymous: Thank you, Alexander, for the Russia DM site. Could you be so kind to give also the other site number where I can find the US$ Russia Bonds. I asked you already once when I put on Windows 98, but now I uninstalled it again, and this site is again gone. So give it again. Thank you very much, indeed.
Mon Mar 29 06:24:56 EST 1999
anonymous: ON the site were you find dm prices you can also find if you go down to the very bottom of the list RF dollar prices.RGDS
Mon Mar 29 06:50:23 EST 1999
Alexander: http://www.berlinerboerse.de/KURSINFO/ANL_FV/FF0046.html miscellanious US$ Bonds traded on the Berliner Stock Exchange. Prices are mostly indicative due to little or no volume. See also www.comdirect.de.Greetings to all!!
Mon Mar 29 13:54:17 EST 1999
anonymous: MinFin transferred DM117.188m to the RCB to pay coupon on the 4th issue of eurobonds due 31 Mar. 1999. The 7-year bonds were placed 31 Mar. 1998 to raise DM1.25bn. The general agents were the Deutsche Morgan Grenfill and SBC Warburg.
Mon Mar 29 14:01:12 EST 1999
anonymous: Russia '07 is up 2 at 2PM. Alright!!!
Mon Mar 29 15:13:03 EST 1999
anonymous: 1.Thanks to everybody: Alex for the site, and anon for the hint. I found it in the meantime myself. And thank you especially for the information about transferring of the DM for the coupon-payment of the Eurobond 9.375% which comes due on march 31st. Who had believed it? 2. Does anyone knows if the Rosiykredit Bank which had to pay today interests on an Eurobond has paid. It would be greatly interesting, since the bond trades at about 3%.
Mon Mar 29 17:32:06 EST 1999
anonymous: unpourtous, don't be afraid of posting your 'view from D.C.'! Rgds. Spadolini
Mon Mar 29 17:38:07 EST 1999
wally: http://informer.comdirect.de:9004/cd/index.html you don't have to know german! there are three empty fields. go to right upper one. type in russ foed. click on field 'tolerante suche'. you get all russian bonds DEM and USD as well as the different german exchanges. interesting thing is: you see what turnover and at what time GMT turnover and at what exchange it was made. if you then click on one of the bonds (graphics on) you see a graph of last 6 months. note down the code-number (WKN) of the bonds you are most interested. use them in the left field and you receive this bond only.
Mon Mar 29 18:05:49 EST 1999
anonymous: IAN's PRIN's and MINFIN's DOWN OR FLAT FLAT today, as has been indicated these are worth 00000.00 ! Recovery is zerapio, net equity of Vneskombank -----40 BILLION .. only Euros worth the pain... EL ORAculo
Mon Mar 29 18:18:16 EST 1999
anonymous: . EL ORAculo, you are spot on. Euros the senior debt.. prins the equity or not even an obligation of the MinFin. Igor Y
Mon Mar 29 18:26:37 EST 1999
anonymous: I have posted the reality of IAN's PRIN's and MINFIN's because I see many small investor's buying Russia and being sold IAN's etc... on Veni oil seems to be performing better than expected..El Oraculo
Mon Mar 29 20:01:16 EST 1999
anonymous: oraCULO. the emphasis in your name is still on CULO. quiet watcher.
Mon Mar 29 20:19:07 EST 1999
anonymous: what does CULO mean? obasanjo
Mon Mar 29 20:20:38 EST 1999
wally: culo (spanish&italian), cul (french) is the word for the part of your body you sit on.
Mon Mar 29 21:36:50 EST 1999
anonymous: Serbian television yesterday called the Gaidar delegation 'scum' and 'trash' (according to the BBC).
Tue Mar 30 00:43:30 EST 1999
Alexander: I disagree on IANs and PRINs,in case of resolution of the soviet debt problem investors could receive a quote in the 35%-50% range,but never ZERO what was mentioned by some! This might however take several years.Rgds.to all
Tue Mar 30 02:47:47 EST 1999
optimist: current drop in IAN prices is just reflection of the fact IAN will be traded on the same pattern as PRIN does - coupon built in in price. Its logical to expect nearly full convergence of prices of these two assets, from 4 points (last 3 months ave) to 1.5-2 points. At this point - whatever you gonna have - restructuring, partial forgiveness - makes these assets rather attractive as long term option on Russia (guess 2 or 3 months ago this idea was widely discussed on BN). Moreover, in such a case this option investment - where loss of time value is neglect - may turn out better investment than that in euros
Tue Mar 30 07:39:38 EST 1999
wally: optimist:<full convergence>. even the with the looming restructuring of IANs and PRINs around the corner there should be still a difference in price remaining since the PRINs are 'sinking funds' whereas the IANs have a 'bullet maturity'. whatever parties (from both sides, debtor and creditors) are negotiating must take this fact into consideration. at least that would be logical.
Tue Mar 30 08:01:06 EST 1999
optimist: Wally: are you in a bad mood? I posted 'nearly full...' which implies different structures of current assets and even indicated possible degree of convergence. Whats wrong? Is that cos of my antialbanian and antiamerican views?
Tue Mar 30 08:21:12 EST 1999
wally: optimist: i am in good mood. but sometimes i read comments too fast and shoot from the holster. anyway, my main point was to draw attention to the different structures. bradynet's published YTMs (cashflow) is confusing investors. in reality -leave alone any potential restructuring- the cashflow yield of PRINs is much higher than that of IANs inspite of five years difference in maturity.
Tue Mar 30 08:25:10 EST 1999
anonymous: wally, why don't we ask pillx to post his yields for both ian and prin?
Tue Mar 30 08:26:29 EST 1999
wally: pillx: you heard the man! let's see what you have to say please.
Tue Mar 30 09:02:50 EST 1999
anonymous: what rubbish. pillx will tell us yield=1 million percent. quiet watcher.
Tue Mar 30 09:08:48 EST 1999
wally: ABN Amro EMBI index below 1000 for the first time in weeks.
Tue Mar 30 09:42:41 EST 1999
anonymous: Prins and IAN's will be reestructure for sure. The million dollar question is how much discount would the Russians ask for. Some time ago they were quoted saying that 50% would be ok? I think that London club could live with that. They still have their pride(Russians). A superpower should be powerfull enough to pay their debts. Rgds
Tue Mar 30 11:25:07 EST 1999
anonymous: Is the liquidity crisis in the market over? (So many new issues coming out..., the C over 63)P. Canovas
Tue Mar 30 11:56:02 EST 1999
anonymous: c-bond soon 30 handle. oracle debacle
Tue Mar 30 14:07:17 EST 1999
anonymous: I think the real key for emerging eurobonds is in the hands of the imf and paris club.Do they really want to bail in eurobond holders in debt agreements?Do they really know what that would mean in terms of widening of the risk premium for all embs?How would eventually be eurobonds restructured?Will they convince sovereign to do what they want?Until this issue isn't over we won't have any big rally in russian euros.What do you think about a credit crunch of emerging markets due to this decision in such a delicate moment?
Tue Mar 30 14:41:10 EST 1999
Omar: Liquidity could continue to be a problem for the EM markets specially with the US equity markets remaining so attractive but unsubstantiated predictions of a 30 handle for the C Bond are nothing more than panic rumors from desperate shorts.
Tue Mar 30 14:48:41 EST 1999
Trawler: Re: Bailins- one of the problems with getting this sorted out is that the developed countries want the EM countries to rewrite the rules for bonds to allow restructuring which is currently not allowed. The EM's don't want to do this unless everyone does as their bonds would be degraded to junk status if only they did but the DC's don't want to do this.
Tue Mar 30 14:53:12 EST 1999
Omar: Paris Club and IMF loans are basically politically inspired desicions, these beaurocrats will try to cover their "culos" with rethoric but in the end they know that by causing a credit crunch they would have to end up bailing every developing country WITHOUT the help private monies. Take Russia for example and imagine that because IMF/Paris Club pressures they default on Eurobonds and get cut from private funding...do you think that the US/EU politicians would let a nuclear superpower sink into caos ? - of course NOT - THE GOVERNMENTS would end up caughing up ALL THE CASH necessary to keep them afloat. If you agree welcome to the CCC (Cupon Clippers Club). Greetings
Tue Mar 30 14:58:02 EST 1999
wally: omar, trawler & anon. bravissimo!
Tue Mar 30 15:00:47 EST 1999
wally: oracle debacle: does your computer have a handle? if yes, use the handle to throw it away.
Tue Mar 30 15:22:52 EST 1999
anonymous: I launched this discussion and i agree with OMAR.However there's now clear cut anyway.Leaving the things as they are will create moral hazard.Inluding euros will create great disappointment.And in the case of EQUADOR for example they should include bradys too!!!Imagine what will happen to bradys of all central and south american countries?A total,total crises of confidence in emerging market debt.I wouldn't do it if i were the imf!!!!!Although I really can tell you that I would never had thought of a new war in europe but....here we are.I think everyone has to doubt,doubt,doubt.Anything in this particular moment seems to be sure.
Tue Mar 30 15:24:23 EST 1999
anonymous: I launched this discussion and i agree with OMAR.However there's now clear cut anyway.Leaving the things as they are will create moral hazard.Inluding euros will create great disappointment.And in the case of EQUADOR for example they should include bradys too!!!Imagine what will happen to bradys of all central and south american countries?A total,total crises of confidence in emerging market debt.I wouldn't do it if i were the imf!!!!!Although I really can tell you that I would never had thought of a new war in europe but....here we are.I think everyone has to doubt,doubt,doubt.Anything in this particular moment seems to be sure.
Tue Mar 30 15:42:09 EST 1999
anonymous: The agreement between the IMF and Russia includes a clause that all Eurobonds will be served and that no "burden sharing" is preseen. A good point for us.
Tue Mar 30 15:47:55 EST 1999
Trawler: Anon- "The agreement with the IMF" If this is true, it is very good news. Can you tell us the source?
Tue Mar 30 15:52:33 EST 1999
anonymous: The name of the source I cannot give you, but you have to believe me that it is one of the world's biggest banks resp. their specialists who say that.
Tue Mar 30 16:11:35 EST 1999
Omar: Anon - good point on being carefull, one can still be confident without being reckless. I for one recommend staying away from leverage to be able to "ride" price storms. Perhaps we should add a fourth "C" and become the CCCC (Carefull Cupon Clippers Club):=).
Tue Mar 30 16:20:14 EST 1999
anonymous: To Omar: It is a great idea. I become at once member to the CCCC Club. And think how many good news in the last few days for us, the CCCC members: the uranium deal, the IMF agreement, the fact that Russia paid one billion US$ to the IMF in january, the fact that the two DM Eurobonds have been paid, the fact that Mr. Primakov is the only politician in the world who, bombing yes or no flies to Yugoslavia and tries to find peace. The only man who resprects the easter time and is trying to find peace is a Russian. Anyway, I am happy to be in your Club. We could somewhere add a O for optimistic...
Tue Mar 30 16:22:22 EST 1999
anonymous: That comment is true, it was confirmed, BUT it also included the liquidation of VNESCOMBANK, which means IAN's and PRIN's are going to their REAL VALUE === 0000.00 This was RUSSIA's position, service all Russian obligations and GOODBYE to all Soviet non-obligations... El ORAculo (seems somepeople are long IAN's and not Euro's - wrong choice guys jump over while you still can... )
Tue Mar 30 16:49:14 EST 1999
Cheetah: for the CCCC, Latin Corporates: INNOVA IUSACEL FARGO NORTE MASTELLONE ACINDAR CANTV GLOBOPAR COMTEL FORD-BRZ ..... For the not so carefull: PYOSA AHMSA PESQUERA-AUSTRAL TRANSTEL SABESP CESP .... For the careless: ALPARGATAS TVFILME
Tue Mar 30 16:49:31 EST 1999
Cheetah: for the CCCC, Latin Corporates: INNOVA IUSACEL FARGO NORTE MASTELLONE ACINDAR CANTV GLOBOPAR COMTEL FORD-BRZ ..... For the not so carefull: PYOSA AHMSA PESQUERA-AUSTRAL TRANSTEL SABESP CESP .... For the careless: ALPARGATAS TVFILME
Tue Mar 30 16:53:58 EST 1999
anonymous: did you get your RF 28 in the meantime, Cheetah?
Tue Mar 30 16:56:40 EST 1999
anonymous: How about: C(autiously) O(ptimistic) C(oupon) K(eepers) for all negative fortune tellers ?
Tue Mar 30 17:01:07 EST 1999
anonymous: ...or D(edicated) I(nvestor) C(oupon) K(eepers) for same bunch ?
Tue Mar 30 17:06:14 EST 1999
Cheetah: Yes I paid up yesterday, added to my RF 18 position... hope it was a good long term CCCC trade !
Tue Mar 30 17:09:28 EST 1999
anonymous: La vita e bella !!! My cousin Primakov (ex KGB head) really and truthfully is seeking an end to hostilities...
Tue Mar 30 17:11:18 EST 1999
Cheetah: Is CHINA going to DEVALUE in all this beauty ??? Where are you Spanky friend ?
Tue Mar 30 17:18:55 EST 1999
anonymous: they will devalue if it doesn't pay anymore to peddle "stability" against not being critized for human rights' violations by the west, IMO.
Tue Mar 30 17:21:07 EST 1999
anonymous: is Spanky our 'heavy weight' now?
Tue Mar 30 17:26:58 EST 1999
anonymous: La vita e bella, senti il dolore nella musica, la ragazza, potenza della lirica, e la vita che finische, te vojo bene assai...
Tue Mar 30 17:27:41 EST 1999
anonymous: Luv Ya
Tue Mar 30 18:09:30 EST 1999
anonymous: EL ORACULO and anon said an agreement on servicing eurobonds was reached.But who knows if this is really true??
Tue Mar 30 18:25:51 EST 1999
anonymous: Not even the Russians know what is going on in Russia and the rest of the world knows even less!
Tue Mar 30 20:11:30 EST 1999
anonymous: Western officials are getting a glimpse of what an isolated Russia will be like with this Serbian conflict. How do you Milosivic in Russian? The West will do all it can to keep Russian in its camp. It may be to late, but they will redouble efforts. World Bank President to fly into Russia in a couple of weeks. Think West will hold out a US$10 Bn carrot to Russia plus at least a 50% nominal cut in Soviet debt with no cash flow payments for 5 years. London Club screwed, Euros the beneficiary. Hang in there fellow comrades!!!!
Tue Mar 30 20:35:48 EST 1999
wally: i was always a great optimist as far as russia is concerned and i still am. however the message <agreement imf/russia servicing euros> is a banker's, analyst's and/or other experts' fairy tale. please don't insult our intelligence by posting these kind of rumours (which deep in my heart i wish they were true!). the reality is slightly different. there will be hard negotiations concerning tit for tat, on one side money on the other side the influence on mr. milosevic; plus good for us members of the CCCC -hopefully- financial aid in "small" (1 bil usd) instalments, preferably always a few days before euro coupons are due.
Tue Mar 30 20:48:57 EST 1999
anonymous: Dear Anonymous, you clearly do not have a clue about debt reestructurings. The IMF clause for the Euros is b...s... (not true). Unless there is repudiation, there is reestructuring and they will go for 50% in the Prins, with the PDI in IANs. Regarding Euros there is rumor in Moscow that they may think to undo the GKO swap as it is too expensive for them, actually anything that pays above Libor is too expensive for them... Where do Euros stand in all this... ? Deutsche is making changes in their system to trade the euros as the Prins and I suggest that you start doing the same.
Wed Mar 31 02:45:34 EST 1999
optimist: anon: could you elaborate on Deutsches changes in... what? Isnt that too irresponsible to throw out strange but threatening sentence without specifing?
Wed Mar 31 04:25:55 EST 1999
Heavy: Maslyukov talking 75% forgiveness on Soviet era debt. Do IANS fall under this category (they were created during the restructuring of Soviet trade receivables, no?)
Wed Mar 31 04:36:04 EST 1999
anonymous: O.k. o.k. o.k., maybe all is bulshit. I tell you only what I get of a very honorable bank and not the last trader or analyst. I will not say that they have the absolte truth for them, but they give day for day their opinion about all these questions and I have the impression that they wight their words. I say even more: they are generally very pessimist about Russia, the spoke - to take an example - of a Ruble/US$ of 30 for the end of 1998 and it was not even 22. So, see, they are normally absolutely tight with their wordings. But they really said yesterday: "....and the programme assumes all eurobond payments are made, a good signal that burden sharing is not being enforced.".. . And they go on with very optimistic words about any further changments to this agreement, since they say that it was not made in Moscow last sunday but before either in Washington or in Moscow. More I cannot tell you, but it is anyway one piece of information, even if you all, like always, know all better as primary-scholl-teacher usually do.
Wed Mar 31 04:36:50 EST 1999
anonymous: O.k. o.k. o.k., maybe all is bulshit. I tell you only what I get of a very honorable bank and not the last trader or analyst. I will not say that they have the absolte truth for them, but they give day for day their opinion about all these questions and I have the impression that they wight their words. I say even more: they are generally very pessimist about Russia, the spoke - to take an example - of a Ruble/US$ of 30 for the end of 1998 and it was not even 22. So, see, they are normally absolutely tight with their wordings. But they really said yesterday: "....and the programme assumes all eurobond payments are made, a good signal that burden sharing is not being enforced.".. . And they go on with very optimistic words about any further changments to this agreement, since they say that it was not made in Moscow last sunday but before either in Washington or in Moscow. More I cannot tell you, but it is anyway one piece of information.
Wed Mar 31 06:50:48 EST 1999
wally: optimist: i guess anon's comment "deutsche making changes" refers to 'deutsche bank' will trade euros in near future with either the price containing accrued interest (one possibility) or the other version like PRINs are traded now, the buyer pays clean price only but will pay if and when coupon is paid to seller the pro rata portion of the accrued interest. it is done with the PRINs since late summer last year.
Wed Mar 31 08:59:24 EST 1999
optimist: They want to do it unilaterally?
Wed Mar 31 09:59:43 EST 1999
wally: optimist: i have no idea. being busy with checking pillx' comments on "russia 10 year moratorium" but cannot find anything to substantiate his message.
Wed Mar 31 11:09:28 EST 1999
anonymous: I like russia PRINS here. should i lift them now or wait till they trade around 1 cent on the dollar?
Wed Mar 31 11:09:42 EST 1999
anonymous: I like russia PRINS here. should i lift them now or wait till they trade around 1 cent on the dollar?
Wed Mar 31 11:53:29 EST 1999
anonymous: to pillx. calling you an asshole would be an insult to all existing assholes. even ah2 (square) is not enough. i call you an asshole3 (cube). obasanjo, chief of yorubas and many other tribes.
Wed Mar 31 11:55:53 EST 1999
wally: why don't you wait to lift the PRINs till you get paid on top of your purchase? plus finance them in JPY. i can get you a loan 0.125% plus commission 0.375%.
Wed Mar 31 12:01:40 EST 1999
wally: obasanjo: i can understand that you are upset since pillx is posting half the truth but we are not in the bush! there is nothing new about his message. yeltsin and big mouth maslyukov are referring to soviet debt.
Wed Mar 31 12:07:41 EST 1999
Gorbachev: I pay -1 for IAN's and PRIN's......
Wed Mar 31 13:21:11 EST 1999
anonymous: *rubin says core of russia problem is corruption and bad financial, legal sectors
Wed Mar 31 13:26:08 EST 1999
anonymous: 03/31 11:15 *brazil to receive $4.9 bln from imf and similar amount bilateral loans - finmin
Wed Mar 31 13:29:18 EST 1999
anonymous: The International Monetary Fund said on Wednesday it would take several weeks to examine Russia's forthcoming economic plan and "prior actions" would be needed from the government before a deal could be finalized.
Wed Mar 31 13:52:15 EST 1999
anonymous: Checkout the new Russian toilet paper, formerly known as Prins!
Wed Mar 31 17:58:30 EST 1999
anonymous: combined value of bilateral loans, 2nd imf tranche to brazil 9.89 bln -cenbank
Wed Mar 31 21:08:27 EST 1999
PILLX: Mr. Fischer said Moscow is unlikely to receive any new IMF loans in the near term because it cannot agree on fiscal and structural reforms required to get the aid.He said there is speculation Russia will provide the fund with its fiscal strategy April 16, but he doubted the process would be so swift. "I don't know what the earliest date is, but I would be very surprised if it was April 16. There is a lot of detailed work to be done."
Wed Mar 31 21:25:32 EST 1999
PILLX: Russian gold and foreign exchange reserves have fallen to a three-year low of about $10.6 billion, Central Bank chief Viktor Gerashchenko said Wednesday, Prime-Tass news agency reported. Russia's reserves had been $11.2 billion on March 19, the previous three-year low, and have been hit by the government's use of the capital to make payments on Soviet-era debt. Traders have also said the bank has used some reserves to prop up the ruble. Reserves included 520 tons of gold on March 11, meaning that cash reserves are much less than the $10.6 billion total. Analysts and currency dealers have said the Central Bank used reserves last week to prop up the ruble in a special trading session on the Moscow Interbank Currency Exchange that provides the basis for its official rate. NATO airstrikes on Yugoslavia and a flood of rubles on the market sent the currency falling to about 27 to the dollar, although the official rate is about 24.20. Russia in March paid 297 million Deutsche marks ($164 million) in interest on Eurobonds. The Finance Ministry said most of the payments had been made with Central Bank reserves. A top official said Wednesday that in a bid to keep reserves from sliding further Russia has begun unofficial talks to reduce its sovereign debt by 75 percent. "I think that we have already started unofficial discussions. This means that our people have started telephone calls, begun meetings," First Deputy Prime Minister Yury Maslyukov said. "Yesterday I stated the sum of 75 percent, but that does not mean that all this will be written off," Maslyukov said. "Let us hope that they [creditors] will agree with us. ... I would agree on 70 percent," he added. The Financial Times on Wednesday quoted Maslyukov as giving the 75 percent figure whereas officials had earlier hinted that Russia would like a debt cut of 50 percent, the same as Poland.
Wed Mar 31 21:27:52 EST 1999
PILLX: Russian gold and foreign exchange reserves have fallen to a three-year low of about $10.6 billion, Central Bank chief Viktor Gerashchenko said Wednesday, Prime-Tass news agency reported. Russia's reserves had been $11.2 billion on March 19, the previous three-year low, and have been hit by the government's use of the capital to make payments on Soviet-era debt.Reserves included 520 tons of gold on March 11, meaning that cash reserves are much less than the $10.6 billion total. The Finance Ministry said most of the payments had been made with Central Bank reserves. A top official said Wednesday that in a bid to keep reserves from sliding further Russia has begun unofficial talks to reduce its sovereign debt by 75 percent. "I think that we have already started unofficial discussions. This means that our people have started telephone calls, begun meetings," First Deputy Prime Minister Yury Maslyukov said. "Yesterday I stated the sum of 75 percent, but that does not mean that all this will be written off," Maslyukov said. "Let us hope that they [creditors] will agree with us. ... I would agree on 70 percent," he added. The Financial Times on Wednesday quoted Maslyukov as giving the 75 percent figure whereas officials had earlier hinted that Russia would like a debt cut of 50 percent, the same as Poland.
Wed Mar 31 21:28:33 EST 1999
PILLX: Russian gold and foreign exchange reserves have fallen to a three-year low of about $10.6 billion, Central Bank chief Viktor Gerashchenko said Wednesday, Prime-Tass news agency reported. Russia's reserves had been $11.2 billion on March 19, the previous three-year low, and have been hit by the government's use of the capital to make payments on Soviet-era debt.Reserves included 520 tons of gold on March 11, meaning that cash reserves are much less than the $10.6 billion total. A top official said Wednesday that in a bid to keep reserves from sliding further Russia has begun unofficial talks to reduce its sovereign debt by 75 percent. "I think that we have already started unofficial discussions. This means that our people have started telephone calls, begun meetings," First Deputy Prime Minister Yury Maslyukov said. "Yesterday I stated the sum of 75 percent, but that does not mean that all this will be written off," Maslyukov said. "Let us hope that they [creditors] will agree with us. ... I would agree on 70 percent," he added. The Financial Times on Wednesday quoted Maslyukov as giving the 75 percent figure whereas officials had earlier hinted that Russia would like a debt cut of 50 percent, the same as Poland.
Wed Mar 31 21:30:32 EST 1999
PILLX: Russian gold and foreign exchange reserves have fallen to a three-year low of about $10.6 billion, Central Bank chief Gerashchenko said Wednesday, Prime-Tass news agency reported. Russia's reserves had been$11.2billion on March 19,the previous three-yearlow,and have been hit by the government use of the capital to make payments on Soviet-era debt.Reserves included 520 tons of gold on March 11,meaning thatcash reserves are much less than the $10.6 billion total. A top official said that in a bid to keep reserves from sliding further Russia has begun unofficial talks to reduce its sovereign debt by 75 percent.I think that we have already started unofficial discussions.This means that our people have started telephone calls, begun meetings,First Deputy Prime Minister Yury Maslyukov said. "Yesterday I stated the sum of 75 percent, but that does not mean that all this will be written off," Maslyukov said. "Let us hope that they [creditors] will agree with us. ... I would agree on 70 percent," he added. The Financial Times on Wednesday quoted Maslyukov as giving the 75 percent figure whereas officials had earlier hinted that Russia would like a debt cut of 50 percent, the same as Poland.

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