Color of the Market Archive, Page #15
Color of the Market A R C H I V E 

1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9   10   11   12   13   14   [15]   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23

The Color of the Market has been an online meeting place for people interested in emerging market debt since 1996, and has undergone many changes in that time. We have discovered an old archive of Color of the Market messages, covering 5 months starting in late 1998. For the benefit of both old and new Bradynetters, we present this archive untouched.

Note: Back in these days, the forum software was greatly different than the Color of the Market that we are now accustomed to. Without the requirement of registration, the forum began to attract disrupters who would engage in vulgarities, name-calling, impersonation of users, and other childish hijinks. But if you can wade through the nonsense, some of the comments herein are historic, and prophetic.

Enjoy,
IDEAGlobal/BradyNet Staff

Wed Apr 7 13:59:29 EDT 1999
PILLX: optimist: (194.87.44.1) Minfin's statement of Friday mentioned nothing on redemption of MF3.... YOU ARE REALY VERY WEAK ON INFORMATIONS §§§§§ Moscow. April 2 (Interfax) - The Russian Finance Ministry said that it plans to make payments on minfin bonds on time. The ministry said in a press release Friday that it plans to redeem ...
Wed Apr 7 14:18:23 EDT 1999
PILLX: Russia's central bank Monday rejected a Finance Ministry proposal that it become a payment agent for domestic hard-currency bonds, known as Min Fins , which mature in mid-May. Until now, Vnesheconombank, the government's agent for payment of its foreign debt, had been sole payment agent for Min Fins . Saying the load was too great for Vnesheconombank, the finance ministry also asked state-controlled savings bank Sberbank to carry out coupon and principal payments on the bonds.
Wed Apr 7 14:54:30 EDT 1999
wally: pillx: i have no opinion whether minfin3 and coupons of other tranches will be paid. but relying on interfax or even worse on tass is like quoting the german "bild" the british "mirror" or the american "national enquirer"!
Wed Apr 7 15:57:33 EDT 1999
anonymous: to pillx. will spermbank pay in cash or kind? dolores the <ugly>
Wed Apr 7 16:40:12 EDT 1999
anonymous: The expectations of a euro-zone rate cut appear so strong that no move could produce significant disappointment on Friday, while a cut may encourage profit-taking.
Wed Apr 7 17:29:28 EDT 1999
anonymous: Pillx, where do you have all these good news from?
Wed Apr 7 19:56:11 EDT 1999
anonymous: Is it true there is really a bank in Russia called Spermbank??
Wed Apr 7 20:25:27 EDT 1999
anonymous: Sure, making deposits is alot of fun and your withdrawal is always guaranteed. Come to think of it Spermbank might be the most liquid bank in the country.
Wed Apr 7 20:26:15 EDT 1999
wally: no! ugly dolores is joking. if i am not mistaken it is sberbank.
Wed Apr 7 21:51:10 EDT 1999
anonymous: In the former Soviet Union there was a SperBank ("Savings Bank") for household savings deposits. More info at: http://faculty.vassar.edu/~kennett/Lieberman.htm .
Thu Apr 8 01:55:07 EDT 1999
Alexander: Its very easy to deform foreign words and make other people or countries look ridiculous.Happened before with some person calling the BRZC SHE Bonds,however then lost all his money believing his own nonsense.Regards to all
Thu Apr 8 06:42:14 EDT 1999
anonymous: Alex you and Wally sometimes have bad days and then both of you hit hard. have some fun with us. dolores the <ugly>
Thu Apr 8 06:46:07 EDT 1999
anonymous: most liquid bank a real good one. our whole office was paralyzed with laughter.
Thu Apr 8 07:59:58 EDT 1999
Alexander: Bad days,sometimes! Hitting hard?? I like fairness and that starts with giving your real first name or IPs etc. Why this secretness??? Long or short,we are ALL colleagues.Regards,Grüße,muchos saludos!
Thu Apr 8 09:27:49 EDT 1999
anonymous: Brazilian bonds may see higher levels Thursday as investors turn increasingly more optimistic about the country's economy, just emerging from one of its worst financial crisis in recent history. There may be some profit-taking along the way, but I think prices should basically start posting stronger gains They deserve it given the improving economic outlook.
Thu Apr 8 09:40:20 EDT 1999
anonymous: right,and this proves that the latest panic was absolutely unnecessary in the first place!
Thu Apr 8 09:42:58 EDT 1999
anonymous: That is the beauty of this markets!. One day eveyone panic, the next they jump on the buying wagon again. Fortunes are made and loss in matter of days. Cojones and patience are the names of the game. Keep cliping.....
Thu Apr 8 09:45:54 EDT 1999
wally: <panic unnecessary> sure, till the next panic. next week or in five years?
Thu Apr 8 09:50:05 EDT 1999
CCCojonciano: Yes! And I will clip on Argie tomorrow!!!
Thu Apr 8 09:54:46 EDT 1999
Alexander: maybe not,friends,maybe no more panics.If brains come back to rule!!
Thu Apr 8 10:26:58 EDT 1999
anonymous: ING Barings told investors to sell Argentine bonds because declining tax revenue and the country's steep borrowing needs will weaken investor demand, and it recommended they buy Mexican bonds instead. ording to ING.
Thu Apr 8 10:35:25 EDT 1999
anonymous: Argentina is selling 350 million euros ($378 million) of seven-year bonds today, has already sold $3.9 billion on international markets this year. They must raise another $3.7 billion in 1999. Investors apetite for Argy bonds contradict your statement. Rgds Pele
Thu Apr 8 12:52:03 EDT 1999
anonymous: The government of Russian Federation started negotiations on "the Russian Soviet debt", the minister of the Finance of Russian Federation Ì. Zadornov informed today being on air of radio station "Echo of Moscow ". As he said, "we have been very actively conducting this negotiations since last week". Ì. Zadornov underlined, that the position of Russia must be coordinated with IMF position.
Thu Apr 8 12:52:33 EDT 1999
anonymous: Why was Spermbank buying globals today?
Thu Apr 8 13:03:14 EDT 1999
anonymous: Nice analysis: http://www.bradynet.com/e807.html
Thu Apr 8 13:46:21 EDT 1999
Savonarola: Russian Euros are coming back to life. I forcast a substantial rally from now on. Watch out all the people that prefer to buy Mexico at 450 over or Brazil at 900 over when Russia, as current as them, is trading at 3,500 over....Shorts Beware!!
Thu Apr 8 13:50:27 EDT 1999
anonymous: When everything seemed to be calm, Chavez had to screw it up. He might declare a ``state of emergency,'' which would allow him to rule by decree and get around a legislative stand-off with Congress. My reading on this is that he is just naive about the world. Despite the fact that he ran a brilliant campaign, he is not a politician. Politicians compromise. They find middle ground.This guy is a military man. He's used to winning or losing a war. You don't tie a war. So rather than taking the positive aspects of the enabling law and running with them and then sending the rest back to Congress, he rejected it all.
Thu Apr 8 14:01:04 EDT 1999
anonymous: Wally, I am hearing Deustche Morgan Grenfell, Sali Smith Barney in London, and JPMO have some big shorts out on Russian Globals. Ouch!!! Could see a 40 handle on the belly in a few dayz. Rock on, Wally!!
Thu Apr 8 14:02:32 EDT 1999
anonymous: The only way to get rid of the corruption and ineffeciency of the gov't is for someone like Chavez to do the things he's doing (not just in Venezuela, but for all of LatAm) the problem is that there is a very fine line between Chavez's democracy and a dictatorship. M.
Thu Apr 8 14:05:35 EDT 1999
anonymous: Also, remember that the fact that Chavez is not a politician is one of the main reasons he got elected in the first place. M.
Thu Apr 8 14:19:47 EDT 1999
anonymous: To Savonarola: Where do see the spread on the euros at...if they are currently at 3500, what can we expect and the time horizon.
Thu Apr 8 14:35:12 EDT 1999
Savonarola: to Anonymous: I can not tell you what absolute level Russian euro-spread will reach but I am certain that they will converge in the course of 1999 to Brazil spreads, which is where they use to be. When people manage to get in their heads that there will be no default in euros and that a hand-holding deal will be signed with the IMF, the rally will be non-stop...
Thu Apr 8 14:45:51 EDT 1999
anonymous: Sorry M - Chavez is NOT a politician or a good leader, he's just a populist clown, but do not fear he'll have to wake up to reality too.
Thu Apr 8 14:52:28 EDT 1999
wally: <Russian Globals. Ouch!> hope you are right and they burn their freaking fingers. 40 handle? (god willing).
Thu Apr 8 15:02:24 EDT 1999
PILLX: 222 The Itar-Tass news agency, in a separate interview Thursday, quoted Zadornov as saying that $3.8 billion of the $4.8 billion IMF loan tranche the government received last July was directed to the central bank for "large-scale currency intervention." The remaining $1 billion was used to pay internal debts, he said.The $4.8 billion was supposed to be the first tranche of a $22.6 billion IMF-led aid package awarded to the Russian government last summer. The IMF suspended the remainder of the loan after the government devalued the ruble and defaulted on its domestic Treasury debt Aug. 17.Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov announced that the Fund had agreed to extend new credits to Russia last week, following a three-day visit by IMF Managing Director Michel Camdessus.The Russian government has agreed to make some changes in its 1999 budget parameters, including the inflation rate, Zadornov said, but he didn't provide further details.Zadornov also said the government borrowed 7 billion rubles ($1=RUB25.09) from the central bank to finance budget spending in the first quarter, of a total of RUB32 billion in borrowing budgeted for the year.Current wage debts for workers on the federal budget have been reduced in the first quarter and now total around RUB9.5 billion, he said. Zadornov noted that inflation was below 3% in March, showing that "we have broken the inflationary trend.""We don't want to ruin our achievements," in the future, he said.Asked whether the finance ministry would fund Russian involvement in the Kosovo crisis, Zadornov noted that the government was already giving humanitarian aid to Yugoslavia, with the money coming from "special government funds."However, he added, there remain "strict limits on the budget, and I don't think there is any economic possibility of us participating in any military action. We should try to avoid this."
Thu Apr 8 15:02:31 EDT 1999
PILLX: 111 Russia Fin Min:Sees $7.5B Western Loans In "Different Forms" Russia's government expects to receive around $7.5 billion in loans from the West to help it fulfill its pledge to pay $9.5 billion in debt service in 1999, Finance Minister Mikhail Zadornov said in a radio interview Thursday."We don't need more money than what will allow us to balance our budget and will permit us to have a payments balance," Zadornov told Ekho Moskvy.The finance minister declined to specify the amount the government was requesting from the International Monetary Fund, adding that it was unclear how much money might come from the IMF and how much from other multilateral and bilateral lenders. Zadornov reiterated the government's view that Fund support for its monetary and political policies would enable it to attract additional funds."When the Fund supports (these policies), it's like a mark of quality on a paper for all investors to see. And after this, people will invest (in Russia)," Zadornov said. "Other organizations, for example, the World Bank, and other countries, they will begin to extend us loans themselves," he added. "This renews faith in Russia."The $9.5 earmarked for foreign debt service in the 1999 budget includes about $2 billion from internal financial sources."We will attract $7.5 billion, in different forms, from the West," the finance minister added.If the government fails to attract the additional loans it is counting on, its funding situation is likely to become even more grim, Zadornov said."We'll be paying our debts out of the central bank's hard currency reserves; the central bank will buy dollars in the currency market or simply draw down its reserves further, and the dollar's exchange rate will rise faster than we had proposed," he said.The central bank reported Thursday that gold and hard currency reserves fell for the fourth successive week to $10.7 billion.
Thu Apr 8 15:03:46 EDT 1999
PILLX: 111 Russia Fin Min:Sees $7.5B Western Loans In "Different Forms" Russia's government expects to receive around $7.5 billion in loans from the West to help it fulfill its pledge to pay $9.5 billion in debt service in 1999, Finance Minister Mikhail Zadornov said in a radio interview Thursday."We don't need more money than what will allow us to balance our budget and will permit us to have a payments balance," Zadornov told Ekho Moskvy.The finance minister declined to specify the amount the government was requesting from the International Monetary Fund, adding that it was unclear how much money might come from the IMF and how much from other multilateral and bilateral lenders. Zadornov reiterated the government's view that Fund support for its monetary and political policies would enable it to attract additional funds."When the Fund supports (these policies), it's like a mark of quality on a paper for all investors to see.
Thu Apr 8 15:04:03 EDT 1999
PILLX: 222 And after this, people will invest (in Russia)," Zadornov said. "Other organizations, for example, the World Bank, and other countries, they will begin to extend us loans themselves," he added. "This renews faith in Russia."The $9.5 earmarked for foreign debt service in the 1999 budget includes about $2 billion from internal financial sources."We will attract $7.5 billion, in different forms, from the West," the finance minister added.If the government fails to attract the additional loans it is counting on, its funding situation is likely to become even more grim, Zadornov said."We'll be paying our debts out of the central bank's hard currency reserves; the central bank will buy dollars in the currency market or simply draw down its reserves further, and the dollar's exchange rate will rise faster than we had proposed," he said.The central bank reported Thursday that gold and hard currency reserves fell for the fourth successive week to $10.7 billion.
Thu Apr 8 15:05:08 EDT 1999
wally: savonarola: positive thinking is good, but russian euros' spread reaching old levels or brazil levels this year is a bit too positive. since nov 98 all euros were paid on time and we still hover around the same prices. my opinion is: if we see prices in the 40-50 range by end of 99 all present bondholders should be satisfied. i know that the market has a short memory, however the aug98 GKO debacle, the PRIN/IAN/MINFIN restructuring looming will make sure that the market does not forget that soon. russia is a very sick patient and the cure will take long. big unknown factor in the equation are the coming elections.
Thu Apr 8 15:05:30 EDT 1999
PILLX: 333 In a separate interview Thursday, quoted Zadornov as saying that $3.8 billion of the $4.8 billion IMF loan tranche the government received last July was directed to the central bank for "large-scale currency intervention." The remaining $1 billion was used to pay internal debts, he said.The $4.8 billion was supposed to be the first tranche of a $22.6 billion IMF-led aid package awarded to the Russian government last summer. The IMF suspended the remainder of the loan after the government devalued the ruble and defaulted on its domestic Treasury debt Aug. 17.Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov announced that the Fund had agreed to extend new credits to Russia last week, following a three-day visit by IMF Managing Director Michel Camdessus.The Russian government has agreed to make some changes in its 1999 budget parameters, including the inflation rate, Zadornov said, but he didn't provide further details.
Thu Apr 8 15:09:56 EDT 1999
anonymous: 04-08-99 PILLX: (194.204.243.13) 333 In a separate interview Thursday, quoted Zadornov as saying that $3<<< PHLX... I think you have it wrong: Russian devalued and defaulted because the IMF suspended disbursements. You are putting the egg before the chicken.
Thu Apr 8 15:32:27 EDT 1999
anonymous: Fair value of Russian Global spread: 1800-2000 bps... Next phase is "Russia is Nigeria with a space shuttle".. Will pay the Euros and nuttin' else..
Thu Apr 8 15:35:25 EDT 1999
anonymous: Europeans used to recieve 14% on Italian bonds.. now they get 5%... Europe will panic for yield and start buying the Russian globals.. In fact, one big European buyer was doing that today. Watch out for the "yield chasers" in Europe now..... Russian Globals at 40 ('28's, '18's, and '07's) in the next week.. Rock on, Wally......
Thu Apr 8 15:55:06 EDT 1999
Savonarola: Wally, a few comments. There has not been any GKO debacle as you say. GKOs are rouble debt and in roubles thay will be paid. All the press saying that the russians offer 5 cents on the dollar is nonsense. They borrowed Roubles and they will pay back 100 cents "on the rouble" albeit over a longer period (not very different from what Argentina did, check the origin of the Bocones). If every rouble buys now 20% of the dollars it used to buy, that is the risk for which investors were paid 100% interest or more. So ..nooo woman don't cry!!! Ians are current and they will continue like that although they might be restructured into a PDI like Ecuador. Minfins, let's wait and see what happens in May. So I confirm my forcast: Russian Euros trading at ~Brazil spreads by year end.
Thu Apr 8 15:58:52 EDT 1999
anonymous: Wally, I think it is time to buy German Banks on the ECB rate cut. Do you like Dresdner or Deustche better?
Thu Apr 8 16:52:29 EDT 1999
anonymous: Savonarola, your are a wise man who speaks out of knowledge and with more sense in your saying than almost everybody else who ever took the word on this matter in this site. Thank you and "chapeau!", how the french would say.
Thu Apr 8 16:59:57 EDT 1999
anonymous: Did you all read today's in "Russia Today News" that Russia will harvest 70 Mio. tonnes of wheat this year and .... and this is the interesting point ....that without any seeds from wherever, neither US nor Europe, just out of the ..... imagine .... seed-reserves of the state. Who did ever hear of seed reserves of the Russian state? But they have apparentely reserves. What, if they have also somewhere some little reserves of US$ nobody knows about, and they will pay and pay and pay ....... and continue laughing in secret about those (mostly americans) who thought they are bankrupt.
Thu Apr 8 17:44:24 EDT 1999
anonymous: For sure Russian reserves higher than reported..
Thu Apr 8 17:54:59 EDT 1999
wally: <buy German Banks> ECB rate cut was a done deal when 'red oskar' threw the towel. i am a bond man. touched my last share in 1984. would not touch deutsche or dresdner with a barge pole. how can you buy shares of gangsters and robbers even if you can make a real profit?
Thu Apr 8 18:04:23 EDT 1999
wally: <GKO debacle> in principle you are (partially) right. the main problem is/was that the forward deals of gkos were not honoured by various russian banks. but is is a fact that russia defaulted on interest for gkos. IANs: they are already PDIs. whether you call them (I)nterest (A)rrear (N)otes or (P)ast (D)ue (I)nterest bonds, it does not make any difference. but twice restructuring? i do hope that you are right with your forecast on euros but i repeat: you are thinking too positive.
Thu Apr 8 19:19:58 EDT 1999
anonymous: O.K. Wally, How 'bout Dresdner.CON
Thu Apr 8 20:16:33 EDT 1999
wally: what about dresdner? robbers and gangsters like all others.
Thu Apr 8 22:45:42 EDT 1999
Puma: Dear Savonarola, while I think that you should share with us the name of whaever you are smoking (which seems great), I do think that you are too optimistic. In any case Russian assets are the most undervalued assets in EM and whether it is Euros or other debt everybody that is long is going to make tons of money. Prins and IANs will get reestructured, but it is unlikely that the discount is going to be higher than 50%.
Thu Apr 8 22:51:14 EDT 1999
Puma: Part II. Regarding reserves I think that they are ready to stop the capital fligh meaning that the CA surplus they are having will be reflected in higher reserves/debt payments or both. Also remember that regarding Prins and IANs they have several proposals on the table for a buyback against some form of collateral. They could also accept Prins, IANs and maybe Minfins as payment for taxes through a discount and reflect the reduction in debt as fiscal income as Argentina does swaping Pars and Discos for Bontes.
Fri Apr 9 00:01:49 EDT 1999
anonymous: Puma: get real! Russia is in the process of repudiating old Soviet Debt via a "commercial workout" with VNESHNECOM Bank and its creditors. They will offer creditors payment in the form of Sudan bilateral debt owed to VBank. Face the music, my friend, Prins and Ians are going to zero! and the Euros are going to Par!!
Fri Apr 9 04:18:06 EDT 1999
anonymous: As for redemption of MinFin T3 - PILLX was quoting Ministry of Finance saying that it said in its press-release that Tranche 3 will be redeemed on time. What was really said in this release - that owners of these bonds are welcome to submit their papers to Paying Agents. There is no single word that Ministry of Finance is gonna redeem these bonds. http://www.minfin.ru/off_inf/116.htm This link is for those who speaks Russian. Cheers, Vodka-Lover
Fri Apr 9 05:16:07 EDT 1999
Savonarola: Wally, when I say that IANs might be restructured into something like an Ecuador PDI I am refering to part of the coupon being capitalised.
Fri Apr 9 06:03:43 EDT 1999
JMC: Apparantly Yeltsin has decided to target NATO countries that are involved in the "agression" against Yugoslavia with Russias nuclear missiles. He maintains that Russia has ne desire to enter the conflict as long as the US does not enter Yugoslavia and try and annexe the country! Still hopeful for a 40 handle on the Euro's?
Fri Apr 9 06:31:21 EDT 1999
anonymous: I missed to be a target of russian nukes (kidding). Ex-King Kohl should travel to Moscow immediately. He enjoys close contacts to both Slick & Boris alike. regards to all, Spadolini
Fri Apr 9 07:04:25 EDT 1999
anonymous: what's about a dementi, JMC? bluff abound!
Fri Apr 9 07:45:59 EDT 1999
wally: savonarola: capitalising a part of the IAN coupon sounds logical and definitely more reasonable than a plain default. but how would russia solve the problem PRIN/IAN connection? PRINs were supposed to pay part cash and part in IANs. the last offer was coupon all IANs and that means already capitalising. the result is the capitalisation of an already capitalised coupon. would like to hear your opinion.
Fri Apr 9 07:52:45 EDT 1999
wally: MOSCOW, Apr9 Interfax news agency quoted Russia's parliamentary speaker as saying on Friday that President Boris Yeltsin had ordered the country's strategic missiles to be aimed at those states bombing Yugoslavia. Defence experts say it takes just seconds to target a missile, making any move of this kind largely s y m b o l i c. / i wouldn't trust interfax with the moscow weather report! 40 handle on euros is still a possibility european trading in rusfed euros is strong.
Fri Apr 9 08:17:29 EDT 1999
wally: http://eve.bradynet.com/cgi-bin/popup.pl?look=0 NY boys have started dealing.
Fri Apr 9 08:26:27 EDT 1999
optimist: Spadolini: whos Slick? As to Eltsin's announcement: press-service of the Kremlin can not display the tape where eltsin says about naval forces missiles retargeting. So things have to be clarified. What is more ugly - Eltsin supported Milosevic's bid to join russia-belorussia union. He gave order to Foreign Affairs Ministry to prepare statement on "yugoslavia joining the union"/ Here we think it means playing Duma depouties patriotic card , i.e. instead of voting impeachment consider yugosdavia joining our union. At the same time , I personally anticipate Eltsin's aides to discard boss' statement, cos from both legal, situational points of view its dangerous stupidity. JPC's comment unfortunately right as well. To sum up - i sold 1/3 of my euros holding (due to above mentioned and also - emg mkts and US stock had big run up , so mkts shud mark down slightly.
Fri Apr 9 08:32:56 EDT 1999
wally: http://www.polit.ru/news_en.html?1999-04-09&00:00 no panic gentlemen.
Fri Apr 9 08:35:46 EDT 1999
wally: At a meeting between the President and the chair of the lower house of parliament today the President, AMONG OTHER THINGS, suggested that missiles c o u l d be retargeted.
Fri Apr 9 08:38:51 EDT 1999
wally: optimist:you don't really believe in a russia-belarus-yugoslavia union, or do you?
Fri Apr 9 08:46:51 EDT 1999
anonymous: hi optimist, Slick stands for Hillary's spouse Mr. Bill. Don't panic, we even survived cold war times w/o internet. Best rgds. Spadolini
Fri Apr 9 09:16:40 EDT 1999
anonymous: Argentina yesterday issue a new bond again for 450million Euros. It looks like they will rollover entire foreign currency debt with new issues this year, no?
Fri Apr 9 09:24:04 EDT 1999
anonymous: please spadolini give the full name which is SLICK WILLY. dolores the <ugly>
Fri Apr 9 09:32:49 EDT 1999
anonymous: bella dolores is right, but I hate redundancies... Spadolini
Fri Apr 9 09:39:54 EDT 1999
anonymous: The banker said the impression he was getting from officials in Islamabad was that if the Paris Club forced the rescheduling, the government "would default on its (Eurobond) payment but before that would try its best to make it seem like that they were forced to do so.
Fri Apr 9 10:31:59 EDT 1999
wally: dolores: what is your gender? my guess is male, as i have never met a female calling herself ugly.
Fri Apr 9 10:32:34 EDT 1999
JMC: I dunno, seems to me that any rumour in the market is credible where Russia is concerned. Deep down I still believe that they will default on minfin's after all they have been preparing the market for such an event. Now we are only concened about the Euro stuff. At the same time you simply cannot get cheaper debt in the markets! look at Indonesia-ok never such a liquid market, the banks are going to have to take a default there square on the chin. They have an election in June which for the first time in 30 yrs is not a certainty and is likely to lead to untold political problems yet the indicative bid is still 70- I just dont get it. That is why I personally am out of Russia & Indo bonds and long selected asia equities.
Fri Apr 9 10:40:15 EDT 1999
anonymous: He is not decided to target NATO countries,he told that it will possible under certain circumstances. All this history is dark speculation and communist provocation.
Fri Apr 9 10:49:54 EDT 1999
wally: whatever rumours are spread and whatever nonsense boris or others leak out, the markets always overreact. look at the embi index. spread 60bps up. and everybody knows that the russians are only doing their job. they have to bark even if there is no intention to bite. or is there? if yes, calcium content in yeltsin's brain or vodka level in his blood has reached a highly dangerous level.
Fri Apr 9 10:51:49 EDT 1999
anonymous: Wally. last time i checked i was female. will check again and let you know. dolores the <ugly>
Fri Apr 9 11:00:15 EDT 1999
Yuri: Russia can repay and have reasones to repay MinFin3 from the IMF new loan only. So international financial community must decide do they need new default or not. I think that Russian Government understand well that it'll be greatest news all over the world if Russia will repay the liabilities which had price at 33% in month to maturity. This step could open the opportunities for country to rise money from international private sources. Maybe it will be not marketable securities but something more closed to direct investments. Other reason to repay is the fact that Russian banks are strong holders of MinFin3 so this is not exactly external debt. Most banks-holders are in troubles. They are managed by Central Bank officials and need more cash flow. So now the ball on the side of IMF and politicans. They decide are they interesting in isolation of Russia or not. There are not hyperinflation in country. Foreign reserves decrease only because Russia repaid ALL current liabilities. In Serbia and Iraq conflicts Russia on the side of political decision and have not any military actions. I think that "Short" in MinFin3 have more reasones to sleep bad now and eat bad after the 15 May 1999 than long ones at 30.
Fri Apr 9 11:01:35 EDT 1999
Yuri: Russia can repay and have reasones to repay MinFin3 from the IMF new loan only. So international financial community must decide do they need new default or not. I think that Russian Government understand well that it'll be greatest news all over the world if Russia will repay the liabilities which had price at 33% in month to maturity. This step could open the opportunities for country to rise money from international private sources. Maybe it will be not marketable securities but something more closed to direct investments. Other reason to repay is the fact that Russian banks are strong holders of MinFin3 so this is not exactly external debt. Most banks-holders are in troubles. They are managed by Central Bank officials and need more cash flow. So now the ball on the side of IMF and politicans. They decide are they interesting in isolation of Russia or not. There are not hyperinflation in country. Foreign reserves decrease only because Russia repaid ALL current liabilities. In Serbia and Iraq conflicts Russia on the side of political decision and have not any military actions. I think that "Short" in MinFin3 have more reasones to sleep bad now and eat bad after the 15 May 1999 than long ones at 30.
Fri Apr 9 11:03:56 EDT 1999
Yuri: Russia can repay and have reasones to repay MinFin3 from the IMF new loan only. So international financial community must decide do they need new default or not. I think that Russian Government understand well that it'll be greatest news all over the world if Russia will repay the liabilities which had price at 33% in month to maturity. This step could open the opportunities for country to rise money from international private sources. Other reason to repay is the fact that Russian banks are strong holders of MinFin3 so this is not exactly external debt. Most banks-holders are in troubles. They are managed by Central Bank officials and need more cash flow. So now the ball on the side of IMF and politicans. They decide are they interesting in isolation of Russia or not. There are not hyperinflation in country. Foreign reserves decrease only because Russia repaid ALL current liabilities. In Serbia and Iraq conflicts Russia on the side of political decision and have not any military actions. I think that "short" in MinFin3 have more reasones to sleep bad now and eat bad after the 15 May 1999 than long ones at 30.
Fri Apr 9 11:04:13 EDT 1999
JMC: To Wally, Personally I thought the biggest nonsense in Russia was when the spread over treasuries started approaching 100bp. Obviously current spreads are also unreasonable but as you say traders know how to over react Regards
Fri Apr 9 11:04:46 EDT 1999
anonymous: can't afford to be "out of Russia" yet, my daily breakfast of angst is reading negative comments on BN. -Where is Benny?
Fri Apr 9 11:15:03 EDT 1999
anonymous: Wally. You are right about boris. So never listen him agane and listen Primakov and Ivanov. Now rumor with his words are the same as rumors about his health 2 years ago. After thrid time not any reaction.
Fri Apr 9 11:38:54 EDT 1999
JPC: I have heard from my sources that there is rumor floating around the Brady bond brokers that Daiwa is considering closing its clearing operations. That would not be good for the Brady bond market. Anybody heard anything?
Fri Apr 9 12:02:32 EDT 1999
JMC: I have also heared that Daiwa Securities USA is only willing to be a principal, ie no more clearing. That is really more for euroclearable bonds though and there are plenty of other brokers out there so no big problem!
Fri Apr 9 12:20:11 EDT 1999
PILLX: The International Monetary Fund's top negotiator in Russia said Friday that he was satisfied with the progress made on new loan talks for the Russian government, eased with the amount of progress that has been achieved in the course of negotiations in the Finance Ministry,The official offered little other comment beyond saying the talks covered a wide range of budget issues
Fri Apr 9 12:30:19 EDT 1999
PILLX: It has become known that the Ministry of Finance has decided to cut the list of banks which will be redeeming OVVZs, or internal currency bonds. The payments agents will remain the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, Vneshekonombank (3rd-tranche bonds, and bond coupons for tranches 3-7), and Sberbank (bond coupons for tranches 4-7). The Central Bank reportedly will make payments to lending institutions; Vneshekonombank and Sberbank will make payments to all categories. This does not mean, however, that on May 14 those banks really will effect the third tranche payments (in theory, $1.3 billion to cover it, and another $333.3 million for the coupons on all issues). Most likely, only the interest on coupons will be paid. It will be recalled that the third tranche of the internal currency bonds (just as the previous two) was issued in 1993 as a compensation for the accounts frozen in 1991 at Vneshekonombank USSR. Experts believe that Minfin has every reason to consider this debt "Soviet" (and, consequently, make no payments until after talks on its restructuring have been concluded). There was already a hint at the need for third tranche restructuring talks from Deputy Finance Minister Mikhail Kasyanov at the end of January. Up until now, Minfin has been punctually redeeming the bonds: it cleared the 1st, $266 mln tranche in 1994 (and paid, also then, about $490 mln on coupons); in 1996; the ministry honored the 2nd tranche (with coupons - $1.7 billion). The holders of the stock are both Western and Russian investors. The bonds are issued in a paper form, and have a nominal value of US$1,000, 5,000 and 10,000 - this circumstance has made them convenient for "black" operations, the reason for their frequent arrest: at the beginning of last year, the volume of frozen bonds was $14.82 mln. The total volume of all the VVZ bonds issued exceeds $6 billion; the volume of Series 3-7 bonds currently outstanding is about $4.5 billion. The bonds have no rating, but are in circulation on the international market.
Fri Apr 9 12:37:41 EDT 1999
PILLX: 111 It has become known that the Ministry of Finance has decided to cut the list of banks which will be redeeming OVVZs, or internal currency bonds. The payments agents will remain the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, Vneshekonombank (3rd-tranche bonds, and bond coupons for tranches 3-7), and Sberbank (bond coupons for tranches 4-7). The Central Bank reportedly will make payments to lending institutions; Vneshekonombank and Sberbank will make payments to all categories. This does not mean, however, that on May 14 those banks really will effect the third tranche payments (in theory, $1.3 billion to cover it, and another $333.3 million for the coupons on all issues). Most likely, only the interest on coupons will be paid.It will be recalled that the third tranche of the internal currency bonds (just as the previous two) was issued in 1993 as a compensation for the accounts frozen in 1991 at Vneshekonombank USSR. Experts believe that Minfin has every reason to consider this debt "Soviet" (and, consequently, make no payments until after talks on its restructuring have been concluded). There was already a hint at the need for third tranche restructuring talks from Deputy Finance Minister Mikhail Kasyanov at the end of January.
Fri Apr 9 12:37:42 EDT 1999
PILLX: 222 Up until now, Minfin has been punctually redeeming the bonds: it cleared the 1st, $266 mln tranche in 1994 (and paid, also then, about $490 mln on coupons); in 1996; the ministry honored the 2nd tranche (with coupons - $1.7 billion). The holders of the stock are both Western and Russian investors. The bonds are issued in a paper form, and have a nominal value of US$1,000, 5,000 and 10,000 - this circumstance has made them convenient for "black" operations, the reason for their frequent arrest: at the beginning of last year, the volume of frozen bonds was $14.82 mln. The total volume of all the VVZ bonds issued exceeds $6 billion; the volume of Series 3-7 bonds currently outstanding is about $4.5 billion. The bonds have no rating, but are in circulation on the international market.
Fri Apr 9 12:42:27 EDT 1999
PILLX: It has become known that the Ministry of Finance has decided to cut the list of banks which will be redeeming OVVZs, or internal currency bonds. The payments agents will remain the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, Vneshekonombank (3rd-tranche bonds, and bond coupons for tranches 3-7), and Sberbank (bond coupons for tranches 4-7). The Central Bank reported lywill make payments to lending institutions Vneshe konom bank and Sberbank will make payments to all categories. This does not mean, however, that on May 14 those banks really will effect the third tranche payments (in theory, $1.3 billion to cover it, and another $333.3 million for the coupons on all issues). Most likely, only the interest on coupons will be paid. It will be recalled that the third tranche of the internal currency bonds (just as the previous two) was issued in 1993 as a compensation for the accounts frozen in1991at Vneshekonom bank USSR Experts believe that Minfin has every reason to consider this debt "Soviet" (and, consequently, make no payments until after talks on its restructuring have been concluded). There was already a hint at the need for third tranche restructuring talks from Deputy Finance Minister Mikhail Kasyanov at the end of January.
Fri Apr 9 12:43:55 EDT 1999
PILLX: 333 It will be recalled that the third tranche of the internal currency bonds (just as the previous two) was issued in 1993 as a compensation for the accounts frozen in1991at Vneshekonom bank USSR Experts believe that Minfin has every reason to consider this debt "Soviet" (and, consequently, make no payments until after talks on its restructuring have been concluded). There was already a hint at the need for third tranche restructuring talks from Deputy Finance Minister Mikhail Kasyanov at the end of January.
Fri Apr 9 12:44:11 EDT 1999
PILLX: 111 It has become known that the Ministry of Finance has decided to cut the list of banks which will be redeeming OVVZs, or internal currency bonds. The payments agents will remain the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, Vneshekonombank (3rd-tranche bonds, and bond coupons for tranches 3-7), and Sberbank (bond coupons for tranches 4-7). The Central Bank reported lywill make payments to lending institutions Vneshe konom bank and Sberbank will make payments to all categories. This does not mean, however, that on May 14 those banks really will effect the third tranche payments (in theory, $1.3 billion to cover it, and another $333.3 million for the coupons on all issues). Most likely, only the interest on coupons will be paid.
Fri Apr 9 13:23:45 EDT 1999
Vlad: To PILLX: . The bonds are issued in a paper form, and have a nominal value of US$1,000, 10,000 and 100,000.
Fri Apr 9 16:57:46 EDT 1999
anonymous: It's time for these geniouses in London and Washington to come to their senses before it's too late. Ok we won, now we can go somewhere else to screw things up. I don't see what we are trying to gain by bringing back cold war mentality. The last thing we need is Russia to be involved. So, lets declare victory and lets move on. We played enough.
Fri Apr 9 17:09:57 EDT 1999
anonymous: We didn't have a concept in the first place,we didn't win,we are spending billions daily on this war and it looks like the politicians can't get out of this war! It's always easier to start one than to end one.
Fri Apr 9 17:13:13 EDT 1999
anonymous: Carl von Clausewitz is right.
Fri Apr 9 17:27:16 EDT 1999
wally: studying clausewitz is a must (even nowadays) in many countries where military academies exist. if am not mistaken even in the U.S. of A. but you can't expect a former draft dodging hippie having read clausewitz.
Fri Apr 9 17:42:09 EDT 1999
anonymous: Can someone explain to me why we didn't get involved in 1)Mexico a few years ago,2) in Rwanda, 3)in Malvinas island where we took UK's side, 4)in Kurds autonomy question in Turkey,5)during Russian invasion in Afganistan, etc, and we finally decided to demonstrate this concept of discretionarry justice where whatever entity does not agree with us is a terrorist one?
Fri Apr 9 18:25:43 EDT 1999
anonymous: because Western Europeans are wimps and need Americans to fight their wars, clean up their messes, and show them how to be real men...
Fri Apr 9 18:26:38 EDT 1999
anonymous: do you remenber my, I am the person that speak very bad inglish, but Y say you come on in Ecuador Par in 37,00 now the price is in 42,00 and I am very hapy whit very money for take a inglish class. Yupy I like the good profit
Fri Apr 9 19:00:49 EDT 1999
wally: <how to be real men> i like that. going to war, bombing innocent people but claim "we are not at war" and whine 24 hours over international sat tv and radio channels about the three poor captured service men. in nine days CNN was not able to present a simultaneous translation of the serb tv footage where one could see the soldiers talking. what is there to hide i ask?
Fri Apr 9 20:33:47 EDT 1999
anonymous: Wally! i think you are a male chovinist and egocentric porco. but i take your side in the matter of real mens. the real mens come to our country and flash their greenbacks to impress us girls. and when it comes the time to show cojones they complain about their feministic womens and they cannot get one up. they use the excuse that we do not have budweiser light beer. dolores the <ugly>
Fri Apr 9 21:24:32 EDT 1999
wally: fake dolores: i appreciate any comments. but please do not pretend to be <ugly dolores>. your style of writing plus the deliberate spelling mistakes give you away. it is also not nice to generalise with respect to the cojones of real (gringo) men. a lot of them have cojones and drink heineken and becks.
Sat Apr 10 00:15:09 EDT 1999
anonymous: Who do you like more: Chavez or Yeltsin ? Take advantage BUY BUY BUY bonds and equity... a 1% block of veni's Electricidad de Caracas was for sale this week and guess how many BIDDERS appeared - over 5 extranjeros !! 50 % UP in three months on main Veni equities - notwithstanding my friend Hugo... also maintain prediction on Brazil equities... EL ORAculo
Sat Apr 10 00:22:16 EDT 1999
anonymous: Next comment: Checked my archives - MG, Soli, BS, ING, MS, Smith, ALL downgrading Latin markets: Argi, Brz, Mex, Veni >>> guess the DATE = March 1995... now wasn't that the LOWEST point of the market or obviously the BEST TIME TO BUY BUY BUY ??? March 95 = March 99 only now the initials have changed a bit.... EL ORAculo INVESTigador
Sat Apr 10 06:14:42 EDT 1999
wally: oraculo: we had indeed latinam lows in mar/apr95 in the wake of the tequila crisis. but we had these lows too in oct97 due to influenza asiatica and we had the same lows in 98 due to russia. one could argue that from jan>mar 1998 we recovered too fast and now we recovered too fast (same period) in 1998. how do you now draw parallels to 1995?
Sat Apr 10 06:33:26 EDT 1999
anonymous: In Athens, the Greek daily Athinaiki said on Wednesday that NATO generals cannot hide their anger and deep concern over the losses the alliance sustained in its war against Yugoslavia. Citing `top secret information', the daily said 88 NATO troops had been reported missing, about half of them Americans. According to the same sources, the daily said, the NATO has so far also lost 32 aircraft in its operations against Yugoslavia.
Sat Apr 10 06:34:02 EDT 1999
anonymous: In Athens, the Greek daily Athinaiki said on Wednesday that NATO generals cannot hide their anger and deep concern over the losses the alliance sustained in its war against Yugoslavia. Citing `top secret information', the daily said 88 NATO troops had been reported missing, about half of them Americans. According to the same sources, the daily said, the NATO has so far also lost 32 aircraft in its operations against Yugoslavia.
Sat Apr 10 06:58:40 EDT 1999
anonymous: http://www.nzz.ch/online/04_english/editorials/edit990329nato-kosovo.htm
Sat Apr 10 07:28:53 EDT 1999
anonymous: anon, is this greece daily usually a reliable source? Kathimerini, Ta Nea are well known.
Sat Apr 10 09:11:28 EDT 1999
anonymous: still ruht der see. everybody gone for weekend? gnom vo zueri
Sat Apr 10 09:14:16 EDT 1999
anonymous: http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/world/europe/newsid_315000/315396.stm
Sat Apr 10 09:18:51 EDT 1999
Howard: Greetings: May I offer a bit of distraction to your focus on short term Russian debt instruments. It is my conjecture that RusFed 28 will trade at the price of 120 within 5 years and that the Russian Eurobonds brought to market at that time will bear a 10% coupon. Further comment: Savonarola's anticipation of a near-term rise of Russian Euros is logical; i.e., the litany of Russian financial and economic problems, etc., have been substantially exposed and has already had its impact on the market, which is now innoculated and will rise from its sickbed.
Sat Apr 10 10:27:21 EDT 1999
anonymous: Howard, dein wort in gottes gehörgang. amen.
Sat Apr 10 10:32:36 EDT 1999
anonymous: in the interest of the (hopefully) world community of BN users stick to the english language, pls.
Sat Apr 10 11:44:16 EDT 1999
anonymous: http://www.moneynet.com/content/MONEYNET/CategoryNews/NewsStory.asp?Cat=INTL&SubCat=INTEASTEUR&ID=SF-04/10-AnN09173177@NEWS-P1&Index=1&HeadlineURL=../CategoryNews/CategoryNews.asp&DISABLE_FORM=&NAVSVC=News/Category
Sat Apr 10 12:29:39 EDT 1999
Alexander: Howard is right,RusFed28 should,under normal circumstances,yield 8%,so the price is then in the 150s.rgds to all,Grüße an alle
Sat Apr 10 14:10:08 EDT 1999
anonymous: Chavez believes He is in 1957, may He someday realize the country has changed, that it is young, non-political and much less non-miltary, all this posturing with uniforms and guns is so de mode, such a bore, He does not know what Y2K is, much less el interne.... He wants to do good but ... times and the people may overcome His slugishness... Gaby (la linda)
Sat Apr 10 15:34:02 EDT 1999
Savonarola: to Howard: I am delighted to hear your words. Russia has been in an 8 months bear market. Whoever hates it has sold it already. Whoever believes that a deal will be cut to keep Russia alive until the elections, will not sell what he has. So what will happen when a piece of credible good news hit the market? First, you will see some buying. The usual shorters (Salomon, JP, Chase) will not accept it is the beginning of a rally, they are too use to a range, and will give paper away. Secondly, the range will be broken, they will still not believe and short a bit more. Finally volume will shoot up, investors will be re-balancing their portfolios and the previous range will be history. The shorters will panic and run for cover. They, as usual, will have burnt themselves twice, on the way down and on the way up. By then, Russian Euros will be in the low 50s...hope you jumped on the boat already...Look at Japan, do you recognise the music? 10 years bear market...and now...everybody buying..nothing has changed...only the perception...Beware the underweighted!
Sat Apr 10 15:37:45 EDT 1999
Savonarola: to Howard: I am delighted to hear your words. Russia has been in an 8 months bear market. Whoever hates sold it already. The believers are buying and will not sell what they have. When a piece of credible good news hit the market you will see this: First, some buying. The shorters (Salomon, JP, Chase) will not accept it is the beginning of a rally, they are too use to a range, and will give paper away. Secondly, the range will be broken, they will still not believe and short a bit more. Finally volume will shoot up, investors re-balancing their portfolios, and the previous range will be history. The shorters will panic and run for cover. They, as usual, will have burnt themselves twice, on the way down and on the way up. By then, Russian Euros will be in the low 50s...Look at Japan, do you recognise the music? 10 years bear market...and now...everybody buying..nothing has changed...only the perception...
Sat Apr 10 16:06:13 EDT 1999
wally: i too am delighted to hear alex, howard and savonarola but i am still a bit less optimistic. this market is made and controlled by the big boys for quite some time to come. we are all dwarfs compared to them and can't move markets the way they can.
Sat Apr 10 16:11:03 EDT 1999
wally: linda: i think for venezuela and hugo chavez it is not a question to know or solve (the widely overblown) Y2K problem. on the list of priorities are completely different things. so what if he wears a uniform? let him, may be it makes him happy. but please give him some time before issuing a judgement.
Sat Apr 10 17:25:15 EDT 1999
anonymous: Does anyone understand what we are trying to do in Kossovo, Yugoslavia? Is this the best way to spend our tax dollars? Am I stupid or it is too complicated for me?
Sat Apr 10 17:33:34 EDT 1999
unpourtous: Gentlemen, there are two 500 lbs gorilla issues (227 kg for our european friends) before we can start thinking about the eventual value of rf euros: the paris club demand for euro "restructuring" aka default, and the current political environment. On the first, we'll know more in a couple of weeks after Pakistan makes its presentation, on the second we'll need to see the course of the current Yugoslavian situation. Make no mistake, if the domestic Russian political environment continues to require threatening pronouncements out of the Russian leadership it will be very difficult for any US pol to extend any sort of assistance to them. The mood, here in Washington, has already shifted against the rf more than many realize.
Sat Apr 10 17:40:47 EDT 1999
wally: anon: no, your are not stupid at all and you are in good company thinking whether this is a good way to spend your tax dollars or our tax euros and pounds. it would be also too easy to blame slick willy alone. all our idiot nato politicians are to blame for this mess. they should have just asked the russians (in a proper way!) to handle slobodan. but the west has become too high and mighty to "ask" poor russia since they "won" the cold war. the russian government h a d the clout to deal with this b...; not anymore because there is too much public and political pressure on moderates. i hope madeleine achieves something when she goes to moscow coming week but i consider the chances slim.
Sat Apr 10 17:43:44 EDT 1999
wally: unpourtous: they can't be that stupid in D.C. or can they?
Sat Apr 10 17:47:25 EDT 1999
unpourtous: No wally, they are not that stupid but they DO have an election to worry about in 2000. Best regards
Sat Apr 10 17:52:29 EDT 1999
wally: unpourtous: your forecast pakistan please. will they bow to PC pressure?
Sat Apr 10 17:54:05 EDT 1999
wally: i know. they don't think of any other election e.g. in russia.
Sat Apr 10 17:59:25 EDT 1999
unpourtous: Wally: re Pakistan I have no information and no opinion. If you recall, I sold my '28 and I'm waiting to see what happens on both counts. Would buy it back if PC and political situation are ok-even at a higher price.
Sat Apr 10 20:18:22 EDT 1999
anonymous: what is that new weapon with uranium they are bombing?
Sat Apr 10 20:33:46 EDT 1999
wally: it is not a new weapon and not the "usual" uranium but depleted (used up in nuclear power plants) recycled uranium. due to the very high density and specific weight (as heavy as gold) of D.U. it is highly effective when used as armour piercing ammunition. already back in the late 70s this kind of ammunition was developed and used during the gulf war with success against iraqi tanks. the question of any dangerous residual radiation depends on the percentage of depletion and the way the DU was recycled.
Sat Apr 10 21:18:19 EDT 1999
Cheetah: Two Governor's in Venezuela may seek independence from central gov !! Soon to be formed Republica del Zulia (all the oil is there) and Republica del Tachira (most presidents come from there) So thats one GOOD and one BAD piece of news...
Sun Apr 11 11:43:01 EDT 1999
wally: LONDON, April 11 (Reuters) - Nearly three weeks into the NATO bombing campaign in Yugoslavia, Britain has started to add up the financial cost of the conflict. So far, say defence experts, it appears that Prime Minister Tony Blair has little to worry about in footing Britain's chunk of the bill in the Balkans. Barring a prolonged conflict with expensive ground forces, economists estimate that the military operation could set NATO back $15 billion, including humanitarian aid -- significantly less than the $25 billion-$30 billion bill from the 1991 Gulf War. well that relaxes me. ONLY $15 bil! i was afraid it would be $16 bil. going to buy a pair of new t-shirts with my savings.
Sun Apr 11 12:03:24 EDT 1999
anonymous: Wally. no hopes. do not spend money. when politicians say 15 billion they mean 30 billion or 50 billion. if they had given the russian kgb 1 billion and another 5 billion to the russian government slobodan would have been hand delivered to bruxelles nato headquarters. with the balance they could have bought kosovo and albania. gnom vo zueri
Sun Apr 11 12:40:50 EDT 1999
Alexander: ...another NATO lie,I am afraid,just like they said yesterday that Milosevic was ALMOST defeated!War costs $500Mln daily,because $500 serbian howitzers are bombed with $300.000 sophisticated missiles....somebody has a calculator?
Sun Apr 11 13:01:16 EDT 1999
anonymous: What do you think about PAKISTAN's euros?Would P.CLUB succed in the request of eurobonds rescheduling?Will PAKISTAN buy back the bonds?COMMENTS!
Sun Apr 11 15:02:57 EDT 1999
anonymous: http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=^kse&d=b that does not look so bad....
Sun Apr 11 15:20:26 EDT 1999
Savonarola: Guys, a quick question to all of you worried about Pakistan and its implication on Russian Euros. If Russian Euros are low because of the Pakistan fear, why is the Pakistan 99 in the 60s and the Russian euros in the 20s??? My guess, the shorters can not short Pakistan (too small and illiquid). If that is the case, then RF euros are low because they "can" short them. As soon as they burn themselves ( very soon in my opinion) again they will stop the game and Russian Euros will sky-rocket....
Sun Apr 11 17:10:07 EDT 1999
anonymous: Kosovo refugees need help fast, as a major humanitarian crisis is underway. For Red Cross address & contact info in your country, logon to: http://www.ifrc.org
Sun Apr 11 17:17:50 EDT 1999
Alexander: In the Netherlands it is GIRO 555 Den Haag for KOSOVO
Sun Apr 11 17:20:16 EDT 1999
anonymous: pakistan will pay. nawaz sharif has enough money in his petty cash. if not he can always borrow from benazir bhutto. that is the big difference compared to russia. luzhkov or beresovksi will not lend money to primakov. gnom vo zueri
Sun Apr 11 17:25:07 EDT 1999
anonymous: anwar: give me a bloody sign of life or do i have to ask your ammi in lhr for your phone no?
Sun Apr 11 17:37:45 EDT 1999
PILLX: MINFIN BONDS-DEALERS-COMMENTARY 04/07/99 Interfax Prices for the 3rd minfin bond issue, which matures May 14, rose further Wednesday. Only a week is left before the register for this issue is closed, and dealers who hope that the bond will be redeemed on time have little time left to buy the bonds, traders said.Bid and ask quotes for this issue were up 4.6% and 1% respectively from Tuesday. Indicative quotes for other minfin issues saw little change.The 4th minfin bond saw several trades at prices of about 8.5%, traders noted.They said the liquidity of dollar-denominated Eurobonds is growing.Spreads on these bonds narrowed Wednesday - to two-month lows for some issues - after bid quotes rose by an average of 2.6%. Prices for London Club debt fell all day as it is very likely that these debts will be restructured, traders said.Quotes for the principle on London Club debt, or PRINs, closed down 3.4% at 6.5%/6.9%. Indicative quotes for restructured interest on this debt, or IAN, were down 7% at 6.6%/7.4%.At 5:30 p.m. Moscow time quotes were at 37.6%/43.0% of face value for the third tranche, 8.1%/8.95% for the fourth, 5.65%/6.4% for the fifth, 6.1%/7.2% for the sixth, and 5.5%/6.6% for the seventh.
Sun Apr 11 17:39:03 EDT 1999
PILLX: MINFIN BONDS-DEALERS-COMMENTARY 04/07/99 Interfax Prices for the 3rd minfin bond issue, which matures May 14, rose further Wednesday. Only a week is left before the register for this issue is closed, and dealers who hope that the bond will be redeemed on time have little time left to buy the bonds, traders said.Bid and ask quotes for this issue were up 4.6% and 1% respectively from Tuesday. Indicative quotes for other minfin issues saw little change.The 4th minfin bond saw several trades at prices of about 8.5%, traders noted.They said the liquidity of dollar-denominated Eurobonds is growing.Spreads on these bonds narrowed Wednesday - to two-month lows for some issues - after bid quotes rose by an average of 2.6%. Prices for London Club debt fell all day as it is very likely that these debts will be restructured, traders said.
Sun Apr 11 18:03:53 EDT 1999
PILLX: The IMF declared that Eurobond debt should no longer be held sacred, countries with debt problems could default on one form of debt -- for example, bank loans -- while continuing to repay their Eurobonds. But the IMF thinks this practice is unfair. It says the artificial distinction rewards Eurobond holders at the expense of holders of other debt. It wants Eurobond holders to face the same haircuts as other creditors in the event of a forced restructuring.
Sun Apr 11 18:30:00 EDT 1999
wally: pillx: are you the new spokesperson of the IMF? are you just quoting an age old story from february or is this something new?
Sun Apr 11 18:34:22 EDT 1999
anonymous: IADB says Latin America has overcome economic crisis. ha,ha,ha.. too funny not to laugh. gnom vo zueri
Sun Apr 11 20:03:53 EDT 1999
anonymous: for sure the imf does not use words like sacred. this is an invention of pillx. gnom vo zueri
Sun Apr 11 20:08:20 EDT 1999
wally: reuters news:Albright hints Serbs may keep some forces in Kosovo. has madame received new instructions from her master or do they need serbs as support personnel for the apache choppers?
Sun Apr 11 20:12:38 EDT 1999
wally: savonarola: your point is logical. please note that pakistan ask price is even in the low to mid 70s.
Sun Apr 11 23:29:21 EDT 1999
anonymous: Well now that we have Dictador Chavez, let's hope he follows Fujimori's/ Pinochet's course of action and starts turning the economy around !!! Again now that he can be called Dictator it is time to BUY BUY BUY Veni Equities... Cheetah
Sun Apr 11 23:33:57 EDT 1999
anonymous: Ladies and Gents: Please think through this. Can Pakistan pay the Eurobonds? If they can, they won't default. If the can't, the will default. It is that simple. The Paris Club is irrelevant. If they have the case, it will be paid. If Russia has the cash, the bonds will be paid. They can't pay the MinFins or the Ians, but they can pay the Eurobonds. Ukraine used IMF funds to pay a Eurobond. Haven't you Nimrods been listening. Paris Club is irrelevant.
Mon Apr 12 00:22:08 EDT 1999
anonymous: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WPcap/1999-04/12/077r-041299-idx.html Washington Post sez political settlement near in Kosovo and French say Russia will be a big part of the peace negotiations. Rock on, EUROBONDS!!!!!!
Mon Apr 12 00:23:52 EDT 1999
anonymous: At the same time, France's foreign minister, Hubert Vedrine, said that NATO was starting to consider a political settlement to the Kosovo conflict and that Russia had an essential role in negotiating a deal. "We have entered a phase where there is a preparation, a reflection and a consultation on what is to follow," Vedrine said in a radio interview in Paris. There was no clear indication of what the cautious diplomatic talk of possible movement in the standoff with Milosevic signified, but it coincided with the arrival in Brussels of U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine K. Albright for talks with the NATO foreign ministers. On Tuesday, she is to hold talks with Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov in Oslo. Albright is expected to try to mend fences with Russia, which has denounced the airstrikes against Yugoslavia. Albright said there is a possibility that Russia could be "re-engaged" in efforts to negotiate a new peace settlement in place of one drafted in Rambouillet, France, and rejected by Milosevic.<< WASHINGTON POST
Mon Apr 12 00:24:30 EDT 1999
anonymous: At the same time, France's foreign minister, Hubert Vedrine, said that NATO was starting to consider a political settlement to the Kosovo conflict and that Russia had an essential role in negotiating a deal. "We have entered a phase where there is a preparation, a reflection and a consultation on what is to follow," Vedrine said in a radio interview in Paris. ... Albright said there is a possibility that Russia could be "re-engaged" in efforts to negotiate a new peace settlement in place of one drafted in Rambouillet, France, and rejected by Milosevic.<< WASHINGTON POST
Mon Apr 12 00:26:00 EDT 1999
anonymous: Wally, This is awesome news and should add 10 points to Eurobonds if it is true!!!!
Mon Apr 12 02:32:14 EDT 1999
anonymous: PAKISTAN said today it won't buy back euros.IT ALTHOUGH HAS THE ABILITY TO PAY BECAUSE RESERVES ARE AT 1.85 BILLION$.BUT BUT BUT DOES IT HAVE THE WILLINGNESS TO PAY?
Mon Apr 12 06:52:31 EDT 1999
Pekar: Dear Russian residents: I have 527000 nominal MINFIN3 for sale today in cash. Pls email. Indicative price range 40-42%.
Mon Apr 12 07:52:51 EDT 1999
wally: <awesome news> a political settlement (engaging russia to act as an intermediating party) it is the only logical conclusion the politicians can make in case they have come to their senses which sounds still to good to be true. from the bad news front: "hungary stops russian humanitarian convoy". three weeks member of nato and the hungarian puppies are barking. 10 points up on these news? i doubt it. perhaps 3-5 points and then another move upwards when an imf deal is struck.
Mon Apr 12 07:58:48 EDT 1999
wally: a good indicator is the EUR/USD exchange rate. kosovo settlement = USD down EUR up. we have moved (starting in tokyo) from 1.0797 to 1.0869.
Mon Apr 12 08:01:48 EDT 1999
wally: http://www.polit.ru/news_en.html
Mon Apr 12 08:39:41 EDT 1999
anonymous: MOSCOW, April 12 (Reuters) - Yugoslavia's ambassador to Russia said on Monday Belgrade would not negotiate a political solution to the Yugoslav crisis directly with NATO or the six-nation Contact Group. "Stop the bombings and then ways can be found of going back to the political process," Borislav Milosevic, who is Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic's brother, told a news conference. "But not with the aggressors, not with the now defunct Contact Group. Other mediation mechanisms can be found and we see Russia playing a very major role in this."
Mon Apr 12 08:42:21 EDT 1999
wally: Schroeder demands party unity on NATO air strikes. that would not have happened under kohl. but what can you expect from a womanizing big mouth?
Mon Apr 12 08:43:12 EDT 1999
Alexander: After a successful peace settlement,the Russian Gov't will not hesitate to send a bill to the western taxpayer,I presume.....
Mon Apr 12 08:48:13 EDT 1999
Alexander: Womanizing big mouth,sounds like our draft dodger in D.C.????
Mon Apr 12 09:07:41 EDT 1999
wally: yes, schroeder is the equivalent. he is a whale. big mouth and all strength in his tail.
Mon Apr 12 10:21:22 EDT 1999
anonymous: CARACAS. Dictator Chavez took down Congress and Supreme Court. Neither is legitimate and do not have any moral authority either. That his TANKS have the engines running to take away all other obstacles... well WAlly guess your friend is living in the past (1959)
Mon Apr 12 10:22:57 EDT 1999
anonymous: Seems more like Bucaram than Fidel. Do you think he will suffer the same fate ? Gaby (la linda)
Mon Apr 12 11:27:51 EDT 1999
PILLX: Paris Club's conditions, Pakistan was told to restructure its Eurobonds. The club apparently wants the burden of debt restructuring to be shared by lending governments, banks and individual investors.The move to restructure Pakistan's bonds has been noted in international markets, it could be a precedent to be followed by restructuring debts of Brazil and Russia
Mon Apr 12 11:34:54 EDT 1999
anonymous: pillx quotes today's FT, great!
Mon Apr 12 12:12:42 EDT 1999
wally: <Dictator Chavez> you can't make an omelette without breaking eggs!
Mon Apr 12 12:14:12 EDT 1999
anonymous: pillx is always quoting. a cut and paste expert. gnom vo zueri
Mon Apr 12 14:44:53 EDT 1999
anonymous: re Pakistan et al http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990412/z8.html
Mon Apr 12 14:55:58 EDT 1999
anonymous: Standard & Poor's points out that Pakistan's first upcoming Eurobond redemption date is, in fact, June 26, 1999, when its US$150 million floating rate note due December 2000 (with an outstanding face value of US$17.85 million) has a put option, which is likely to be exercised. TO MAKE A LONG STORY SHORT,THEY WILL PAY,JUST WAIT -
Mon Apr 12 17:08:39 EDT 1999
anonymous: WALLY-- Russian 18's, 07's, and 05's will have a 40 handle in a week. Heavy German buying of the euro's today. Chase and JPMO lookin' stupid here...
Mon Apr 12 17:39:02 EDT 1999
anonymous: Ooops !! Had to neutralize my Veni equity position. Congress and Supreme Court being wiped by Chavez, plus rumours of resigning Finance and Defense ministers WILL spook the market, a friend tells me that supermarkets and banks were full at the end of the day.... El Oraculo
Mon Apr 12 17:50:02 EDT 1999
anonymous: If Chavez consumates his Coupe would there be a counter move ? Would the USA approve or would they bomb him to oblivion ?
Mon Apr 12 17:52:34 EDT 1999
anonymous: Wake up traders !!! You heard it here first ... Nostradamus
Mon Apr 12 17:52:56 EDT 1999
PILLX: http://www.bradynet.com/abntop10.html
Mon Apr 12 20:23:31 EDT 1999
wally: <Heavy German buying> turnover DUS RF18 300.000, BER RF28 30.000 that's not heavy. of course germans can buy in london and NYC. RF dem bonds good turnover FSE and BER total dem 4.5 millions. let's hope for the 40 handle. i am with you.
Mon Apr 12 20:28:37 EDT 1999
wally: <chavez wiping out congress and supreme court> good move hugo! rock on, clean up the mess and may the power of the oil price be with you. wimps go and sell your bonds or go short and get hurt.
Mon Apr 12 20:39:29 EDT 1999
wally: nostradamus: what exactly did we hear here first? could you be a teenie weenie little bit more specific, please.
Mon Apr 12 21:42:04 EDT 1999
anonymous: Wally, germans in buying at NY close.. who would that be???
Mon Apr 12 21:52:18 EDT 1999
anonymous: Venezuela's Supreme Court head told Chavez to moderate his language ( to grow up ). The newly elected Congress had a similar position. The situation is tense, Chavez is, in a very obvious and relatively amateurish way, trying to present both Congress and the Supreme Court as in the way of granting things like a salary increase to workers. My call is that Chavez's support starts coming down, he tries to consumate his "fujimorazo" but with very negative results - his government so far has done nothing positive. Time to WORK and not talk so much about nothing. You can not continue fooling everybody with rhetoric, at the end people need JOBS. Sell or Short Venezuela.... CHEETAH
Tue Apr 13 05:27:07 EDT 1999
wally: <germans buying at NY close> a number of investors from europe or asia give limited buy or sell orders with instructions that orders are presented and carried out at specific times. that explains why anybody can deal (even when sleeping) in any market provided the market is open. some big european banks have their trading departments open till NY closes. there are even a few where you can deal nearly around the clock (21 hours; 3 hours being the difference between NYC close and TKY open.
Tue Apr 13 06:14:11 EDT 1999
wally: LONDON, April 13 (Reuters) - Emerging debt prices recovered in a well bid London market on Tuesday after fears of an overnight rout on Wall Street never materialised and oil price gains buoyed crude producers, dealers and analysts said.
Tue Apr 13 06:46:13 EDT 1999
wally: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WPlate/1999-04/13/114l-041399-idx.html
Tue Apr 13 07:07:31 EDT 1999
anonymous: http://interactive.wsj.com/articles/SB923960931680832752.htm
Tue Apr 13 07:48:55 EDT 1999
anonymous: "the entire Balkans is not worth the bones of a single Pommeranian grenadier" (Otto von Bismarck); great stuff, thanks wally. let's see if Albright/Ivanow have "a least-bad peace" in the pipeline. rgds. Spadolini
Tue Apr 13 08:42:53 EDT 1999
Savonarola: The rally in Russian Euros has officially started. I do not see mayor obstacles until the high forties/low fifties. However speed will be the key factor to watch. The shorters (salomon, JP, Chase) are starting to suffer, but they haven't thrown the towel yet. Still their morning reports show a bearish tone on Russia while they recommend Brazil whose survival hangs from an IMF life-line. We are now on first gear...whatch it accelarating soon!
Tue Apr 13 09:48:23 EDT 1999
PILLX: LONDON, April 13 (Reuters) - Official lenders led by the Group of Seven (G7) leading industrialised nations are pushing a revived plan to alter Eurobond terms to permit easier rescheduling of sovereign debt.The plan,is aimed at simplifying Eurobonds' legal framework to bring them into line with commercial loans, which are regularly renegotiated via the London Club group of bank creditors. It forms part of a sustained move by official lenders including the Paris Club of sovereign creditors and the International Monetary Fund to strip Eurobonds of their anomalous "most-favoured" status.
Tue Apr 13 10:05:54 EDT 1999
PILLX: Government and IMF officials know private burden sharing is a tricky balancing act. They don't want to bail out investors who rake in huge returns on risky bets, and then turn to taxpayers when the risks go sour. But they also don't want to encourage countries to break bond contracts lightly."The challenge is to find an approach that best combines these two competing principles," Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin said recently. "And I think we have begun to do that in the handling of actual situations."In recent months, the IMF forced Ukraine to refinance its bonds in return for new IMF loans. The rich countries, acting through the Paris Club of creditor governments, agreed to restructure their own loans to Pakistan, but only if the Pakistani authorities get similar concessions from private holders of government bonds.Now the IMF is pushing for similar concessions from holders of more than $700 million in Romanian debt that is due by the end of June, although the U.S. hasn't come down one way or another on the case. Russia and Ecuador are possible future candidates for deals that force bondholders to accept delayed or reduced payoffs.
Tue Apr 13 10:07:35 EDT 1999
PILLX: Government and IMF officials know private burden sharing is a tricky balancing act. They don't want to bail out investors who rake in huge returns on risky bets, and then turn to taxpayers when the risks go sour. But they also don't want to encourage countries to break bond contracts lightly."The challenge is to find an approach that best combines these two competing principles," Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin said recently. "And I think we have begun to do that in the handling of actual situations."In recent months, the IMF forced Ukraine to refinance its bonds in return for new IMF loans. The rich countries, acting through the Paris Club of creditorgovernments agreed to restructure their own loans to Pakistan, but only if the Pakistani authorities get similar concessions from private holders of government bonds.Now the IMF is pushing for similar concessions from holders of more than $700 million in Romanian debt that is due by the end of June. Russia and Ecuador are possible future candidates for deals that force bondholders to accept delayed or reduced payoffs.
Tue Apr 13 10:08:20 EDT 1999
PILLX: Government and IMF officials know private burden sharing is a tricky balancing act. They don't want to bail out investors who rake in huge returns on risky bets, and then turn to taxpayers when the risks go sour. But they also don't want to encourage countries to break bond contracts lightly.The challenge is to find an approach that best combines these two competing principles,Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin said recently. "And I think we have begun to do that in the handling of actual situations.In recent months,the IMF forced Ukraine to refinance its bonds in return for new IMF loans. The rich countries, acting through the Paris Club of creditorgovernments agreed to restructure their own loans to Pakistan, but only if the Pakistani authorities get similar concessions from private holders of government bonds.Now the IMF is pushing for similar concessions from holders of more than $700 million in Romanian debt that is due by the end of June. Russia and Ecuador are possible future candidates for deals that force bondholders to accept delayed or reduced payoffs.
Tue Apr 13 10:09:39 EDT 1999
PILLX: Private burden sharing is a tricky balancing act.They don't want to bail out investors who rake in huge returns on risky bets,and then turn to taxpayers when the risks go sour. But they also don't want to encourage countries to break bond contracts lightly.The challenge is to find an approach that best combines these two competing principles,Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin said recently. "And I think we have begun to do that in the handling of actual situations.In recent months,the IMF forced Ukraine to refinance its bonds in return for new IMF loans. The rich countries, acting through the Paris Club of creditorgovernments agreed to restructure their own loans to Pakistan, but only if the Pakistani authorities get similar concessions from private holders of government bonds.Now the IMF is pushing for similar concessions from holders of more than $700 million in Romanian debt that is due by the end of June. Russia and Ecuador are possible future candidates for deals that force bondholders to accept delayed or reduced payoffs.
Tue Apr 13 10:11:10 EDT 1999
PILLX: Private burden sharing is a tricky balancing act.They don't want to bail out investors who rake in huge returns on risky bets,and then turn to taxpayers when the risks go sour. But they also don't want to encourage countries to break bond contracts lightly.The challenge is to find an approach that best combines these two competing principles,Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin said recently. "And I think we have begun to do that in the handling of actual situations.IMF forced Ukraine to refinance its bonds in return for new IMF loans.The rich countries,acting through the ParisClub of creditor governments agreed to restructure their own loans to Pakistan,but only if the Pakistani authorities get similar concessions from private holders of government bonds.Now the IMF is pushing for similar concessions from holders of more than $700 million in Romanian debt that is due by the end of June. Russia and Ecuador are possible future candidates for deals that force bondholders to accept delayed or reduced payoffs.
Tue Apr 13 10:55:57 EDT 1999
anonymous: Is there any smart person left in Washington? We are doing one blunder after another in the Balkans. We kill innocent people and we make Milosevic a hero. The only losers out of this mess are Kosovars and Serbian civilians. Lets do diplomacy, and lets get smart.
Tue Apr 13 11:03:55 EDT 1999
wally: pillx: if you post news then please do net edit or pick out the negatives. the positive portions of this report are:<But the huge premium the market would charge emerging nations incorporating the rescheduling clause into their Eurobond contracts means few are likely to do so. The move is resisted by the Eurobond industry and by poor countries who fear a massive increase in their borrowing costs. Eurobonds are notoriously difficult to renegotiate because they are bearer bonds held anonymously by potentially thousands of disparate investors. Rescheduling them requires 100 percent approval by bondholders, so that a single recalcitrant or untraceable investor can scupper a deal.
Tue Apr 13 11:08:54 EDT 1999
anonymous: I'm afraid Clinton will announce just the opposite today.

1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9   10   11   12   13   14   [15]   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23