Color of the Market Archive, Page #18
Color of the Market A R C H I V E 

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The Color of the Market has been an online meeting place for people interested in emerging market debt since 1996, and has undergone many changes in that time. We have discovered an old archive of Color of the Market messages, covering 5 months starting in late 1998. For the benefit of both old and new Bradynetters, we present this archive untouched.

Note: Back in these days, the forum software was greatly different than the Color of the Market that we are now accustomed to. Without the requirement of registration, the forum began to attract disrupters who would engage in vulgarities, name-calling, impersonation of users, and other childish hijinks. But if you can wade through the nonsense, some of the comments herein are historic, and prophetic.

Enjoy,
IDEAGlobal/BradyNet Staff

Tue Apr 20 05:18:10 EDT 1999
wally: gentlemen: read the message dated <<04-16-99 Anonymous: Wally... The U.S. equity market creates a "wealth effect" in the emerging markets.>> very thoroughly, take a graph of yesterday's DOW and compare it with EMBI graph. the man is "right on the money"! GE, i pay my respects.
Tue Apr 20 05:39:09 EDT 1999
wally: http://www.russiatoday.com/rtoday/business/news/08.html very interesting!
Tue Apr 20 06:35:19 EDT 1999
marex: Reuters: Russia's Kasyanov says won't pay minfin3 principal due May 14. He relies on creditors'understanding on minfin cross default. Hahahaha
Tue Apr 20 06:44:17 EDT 1999
anonymous: he he he, nice news from london - russian deputy finance minister announced MinFin3 will not be paid.
Tue Apr 20 06:51:03 EDT 1999
anonymous: black british humour?
Tue Apr 20 07:28:32 EDT 1999
anonymous: russian humor
Tue Apr 20 07:29:11 EDT 1999
anonymous: russian humor
Tue Apr 20 07:42:57 EDT 1999
wally: LONDON, April 20 (Reuters) - Russia will not pay mid-May the third tranche of its dollar-denominated MinFin bonds, worth some $1.3 billion, chief debt negotiatior Mikhail Kasyanov, the first deputy finance minister, said on Tuesday. Kasyanov told reporters Russia hoped for the goodwill of creditors holding the bonds, non-payment of which could allow creditors to declare cross-default and demand immediate payment of other tranches of the $11 billion MinFin programme. FULL TEXT UNEDITED. what's the big hahaha and hehehe for? did i miss something?
Tue Apr 20 07:48:49 EDT 1999
anonymous: There was a lot of guys around living on the edge...
Tue Apr 20 07:54:07 EDT 1999
optimist: No Wally , you didnt , everything 's right. just wonder where this boring pilx was picking his info last 3-4 days. the guy was talking his book (if he has any at all) on his postings. its indescent. Recent disseratations had nothing to do with the NEWS
Tue Apr 20 07:57:12 EDT 1999
anonymous: russian humor - russian joke
Tue Apr 20 08:01:45 EDT 1999
anonymous: Is there any thoughts how Russia could restructure those bloody MINFIN3?
Tue Apr 20 08:17:08 EDT 1999
optimist: Theres currently market for minfin3 bonds in moscwo - but paper trades in purely cash form, since register closed the books. Cash mf 3 trades at 40-42 range. some companies with connections at high government level can still appropriate mf3 for tax collection (and some other vague) purposes. Of cos this info unofficial.
Tue Apr 20 08:46:49 EDT 1999
Howard: To PILLX: Re your 4/19/99 posting, please continue to edit and post. Charlie of Mexico's opinion represents himself and possibly a small group. The huge majority of Bradynet viewers are SILENT, and much less informed than Charlie represents himself to be, and are most likely appreciative of your postings. Regards.
Tue Apr 20 09:13:51 EDT 1999
anonymous: Series 3 MinFins, which fell 14 points on Monday after Kasyanov hinted Russia would seek to restructure them, were quoted at 20-00, 50-00 at around 1230 GMT. The massive 30 percentage point bid-offer spread indicates that trading in the bonds has effectively ceased, traders said. MinFin 4s, the status of which remains uncertain, were 2-1/4 higher at 7-1/4, 8-00, however, while MinFin 6 and 7 series bonds, which Kasyanov said Russia would honour, were more or less unchanged at 1-3/8, 11-1/4 and 9-00, 10-1/4 respectively. Russia's 2005 and 2008 global bonds were quoted at 33-3/8, 35-1/2 and 31-1/8, 37-1/8 after hitting respective mid-market highs of 34-00 and 36-5/8 earlier in the session.
Tue Apr 20 09:15:10 EDT 1999
wally: howard: you are right although i admit i too was bitching as far as editing is concerned. optimist: what if he writes a book or a dissertation, at least we have with pillx better contributions than the gnom of zueri gives us. the best of us all is TOFU. wish he would come on more often. business: even in europe you can still buy and sell minfin3 (at fancy prices). makes me think whether kasyanov and consorts are pulling a some sort of trick.
Tue Apr 20 09:27:44 EDT 1999
wally: excerpt (reuters) Comments by Russia's deputy finance minister Mikhail Kasyanov reiterating the country would not repay $1.3 billion of principal due in May on the MinFin 3 bond hit MinFins but boosted Russia's global and Eurobonds. Russia says the MinFin 3 is Soviet-era debt to be included in any restructuring agreement.
Tue Apr 20 09:32:01 EDT 1999
optimist: Wally: Does that mean theres kinda grey mkt for defaulted mf3 w/i issue? Latest rumour - mf 3 will be swapped for vnesheconombank note. tenor and proportion unknown. rgds.
Tue Apr 20 10:07:22 EDT 1999
Howard: To Hahaha and Hehehe: What a weird response to a damaging pronouncement that will do harm and cause suffering for many people. I work for a medical company, and am in contact with many physicians throughout the USA. If the laughers need a referral, I can help. Regards.
Tue Apr 20 10:18:36 EDT 1999
optimist: Do you have physician-friends in continental europe? its europeans who suffer from mf 3 action most
Tue Apr 20 10:23:48 EDT 1999
wally: optimist: there is a grey market WITH turnover! that's why i look quite sceptical at the announcement and ask myself "where's the beef?" may be i have become too suspicious over time.
Tue Apr 20 11:04:18 EDT 1999
anonymous: Russia's First Deputy Finance Minster Mikhail Kasyanov said on Tuesday that the country's commercial bank creditors were not rushing in negotiations to restructure distressed Soviet-era debt. "Our creditors appear to have the feeling that there's no need to hurry. It's important to look at quality,"
Tue Apr 20 11:40:45 EDT 1999
JPC: Hey Check out the new BradyNet's Forums. It seems that now everybody has to put a handle or no message will be posted! http://www.bradynet.com/bbs/index.html Good idea BradyNet
Tue Apr 20 11:44:33 EDT 1999
anonymous: Kasyanov said it about London Club debts (Ians and Prins). We have to wait for response on todays news from MINFIN(3,4,5) holders. It will be interesting to see how Russia will f... everybody up again.
Tue Apr 20 11:46:17 EDT 1999
anonymous: vas??
Tue Apr 20 11:48:12 EDT 1999
anonymous: vally, vhere are you?
Tue Apr 20 12:21:47 EDT 1999
wally: vy der hell do you vant to know vhere i am?
Tue Apr 20 12:25:54 EDT 1999
anonymous: Standard & Poor's today lowered its foreign currency ratings on the Russian Federation's Ministry of Finance (MinFin) bonds to double-'C' from triple-'C'-minus. Ratings on Russia's Eurobonds remain at triple-'C'-minus, while the Federation's foreign currency issuer credit rating remains 'SD' (selective default).
Tue Apr 20 12:32:12 EDT 1999
anonymous: wally, minfin3 trading i understand? why? no money! tofu
Tue Apr 20 12:35:15 EDT 1999
anonymous: vally, are you back? ve need your presence on this site. it just feels better when you're around!
Tue Apr 20 12:40:31 EDT 1999
j: whats the general opinion on the Brazilian new issue? and about trading in the idu's for the new issue?
Tue Apr 20 12:54:04 EDT 1999
anonymous: Initial responses to Brazil's deal were positive, although some analysts were sceptical as to how many interest due and unpaid (IDU) and eligible interest (EI) Brady bonds would be exchanged for the new debt. Both instruments offer a combination of high yield and short maturity which the new deal -- expected to be priced at a premium of 8.0 percent over Treasuries -- is unlikely to match.
Tue Apr 20 15:22:06 EDT 1999
anonymous: Rumor in market Robert Rubin is going to resign. Clinton to announce @ 4:15.. Stay tuned... GR
Tue Apr 20 16:06:31 EDT 1999
anonymous: Ref: Brz bond "We're talking to a lot of clients about this deal and most of them want an 800 basis point handle on it," said an emerging debt trader at a London-based bank. "They may be able to come a little tighter than that, but from the feedback we've had, a spread of 725 or 750 basis points would be pushing it."
Tue Apr 20 16:12:23 EDT 1999
wally: bob rubin resigning? that would be a real pity!
Tue Apr 20 16:12:38 EDT 1999
wally: bob rubin resigning? that would be a real pity!
Tue Apr 20 16:43:30 EDT 1999
Howard: Wally: Please keep filtering PILLX' very good postings, since it raises them to an even higher level of accuracy.
Tue Apr 20 16:43:44 EDT 1999
Howard: Wally: Please keep filtering PILLX' very good postings, since it raises them to an even higher level of accuracy.
Tue Apr 20 16:48:35 EDT 1999
anonymous: Whoops!! GR
Tue Apr 20 17:26:01 EDT 1999
wally: howard: i vill try hard to meet ze harsh rekvirements of zis forum. pillx zometimes overshoots ze target but i zink he is a hard vorker and his contvibushions are vhorzvile to read.
Tue Apr 20 21:21:31 EDT 1999
anonymous: Clinton -- reflecting similar statements over the past year -- once again urged both emerging and industrial nations to stick to the path of sound economic policies. He also called for new action to force private investors to take on a bigger role in dealing with the fallout of painful economic crises. .......U.S. efforts now center on how to ensure private investors pay their fare share when things go wrong and a country needs to be bailed out. But bankers and private bond holders have yet to warm up to proposals that many say would make them less willing to invest in emerging markets in the first place.
Wed Apr 21 05:10:44 EDT 1999
anonymous: vally, ju schow zom hidden tälents. Mäibi wi cän mäik ju ze Zueri Gnom of Honour 1999.
Wed Apr 21 05:45:17 EDT 1999
anonymous: dos ischt nuet mögli. this honor can only be conferred by myself. gnom vo zueri
Wed Apr 21 06:29:44 EDT 1999
wally: TO madame albright: this in response to your statement made yesterday "ALLIANCE IS ROCK SOLID ON KOSOVO". BONN, April 21 (Reuters) - German Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer warned his left-wing, pacifist Greens party on Wednesday that the government coalition with the Social Democrats would collapse if they withdrew their support for NATO's bombing of Yugoslavia. "It would mean the end of the road for this coalition," Fischer said in an interview with the left-leaning Frankfurter Rundschau newspaper. Fischer's comments are the clearest acknowledgement yet that growing opposition to the bombing campaign within his ecologist party could have life-threatening consequences for its alliance with Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder's much bigger SPD.
Wed Apr 21 08:40:34 EDT 1999
anonymous: By talking down the likelihood of prompt payment, Irkutskenergo, Moscow phone company MGTS and others kill two birds with one stone. As well as pressuring their creditors in hopes of winning a restructuring deal, they are also looking to drive the paper's price down low enough for it to be worth their while to covertly buy back as much of the issues as possible, analysts said. "Russian borrowers have given new meaning to the term 'grace period,'" said Eric Kraus, head of fixed income with Dresdner Kleinwort Benson in Moscow. TODAY'S MOSCOW TIMES<<<< DON'T KID YOURSELF, RUSSIAN MINFIN PROBABLY BUYING BACK EUROBONDS ALSO!!
Wed Apr 21 09:41:40 EDT 1999
anonymous: Latest press-release by Ministry of Finance of Russia - they are not saying that tranche 3 won't be redeemed on time, but declare that they are in talks with Paris and London clubs to find the appropriate way to service tranche 3 and coupons due 14 may 1999. Not a single word that trache 3 won't be redeemed. They say next press-release is on the way. This document is on their official site right now www.minfin.ru Vodka-lover
Wed Apr 21 09:45:28 EDT 1999
anonymous: Latest press-release by Ministry of Finance of Russia - they are not saying that tranche 3 won't be redeemed on time, but declare that they are in talks with Paris and London clubs to find the appropriate way to service tranche 3 and coupons due 14 may 1999. Not a single word that trache 3 won't be redeemed. They say next press-release is on the way. This document is on their official site right now www.minfin.ru Vodka-lover
Wed Apr 21 10:33:39 EDT 1999
Asian investor: To Anon, re private investors should bear their fair share of cost of bailing out a country - surely the losses investors incur is the cost they pay. tacking on some kind of commitment to assist an indebted nation prior to their default seems a little harsh. Most investors do not realise that the money they lend to these countries generally goes to fund the champagne lifestyle of corrupt leaders, they usually follow the example of institutions such as the IFC and the World Bank who they assume know better. I read a report a while back that the World bank estimates that up to a third of the national budget of Indonesia was misappropriated on an annual basis. I suppose we indirectly fund these institutions and so we do bear the cost of their inept decisions?
Wed Apr 21 11:00:24 EDT 1999
anonymous: To Asian Investor: I think the official sector is talking about helping with "cash flow," not about incurring market losses. Thus, bond holders may be asked to temporarily suspend or reduce interest or principal payments. Certain they do not care about price fluctuations. Rubin speaks on this at 11 a.m... I think they are going to screw us big time.
Wed Apr 21 11:26:24 EDT 1999
anonymous: We are screwed big time: "Claims of bondholders should not be senior to banks".. This is nasty. Rubin giving speech right now.
Wed Apr 21 11:28:17 EDT 1999
anonymous: We're totally f****d.
Wed Apr 21 11:32:05 EDT 1999
anonymous: "If a country depends on official sector support to pay its debt, the private sector must somehow be involved." -- Ecuador, Russia, etc.. This is bad...
Wed Apr 21 11:34:21 EDT 1999
optimist: Is this the reason why russian euros up 1-1.5 points last couple of hours??
Wed Apr 21 11:36:25 EDT 1999
anonymous: I hope it is not true, what he said.
Wed Apr 21 11:36:33 EDT 1999
anonymous: I hope it is not true, what he said.
Wed Apr 21 11:39:35 EDT 1999
wally: background story how kohl gets highest U.S. order for civilians. clinton calls kohl. bill: "helmut, CNN said you are retired? since when? must be boring. say, madeleine has manoeuvered me into deep sh.., no idea how to get out. could you talk to boris? helmut: "zis iss no problem bill, vill send zome vodka by UPS and zenn i call boris. shpeek to you later" helmut calls boris. "tovarish, remember zee old times we saunaed togezer und how vee zettled nato expansion to the east? i vant zome favour for old times zake. do zomezing wiz zis milo.. vhat's his name in beograd!" boris: "helmut, siss iss difficult. i khave warned nato and clinton. they not listen, now they suffer. and duma is up mine. what can do?" helmut: "make this milo.. stop zee ahh.... kleansing" boris: "helmut, you make nato first stop war" helmut: "vhat iff i ask bill to talk to imf, paris klub and london klub?" boris: "i am no member". helmut: "i mean cash for mutter russia and restrukt.... or vhat zey call it ze debt" boris: deal helmut, will instrukt primakov accordingly".
Wed Apr 21 11:40:11 EDT 1999
wally: background story how kohl gets highest U.S. order for civilians. clinton calls kohl. bill: "helmut, CNN said you are retired? since when? must be boring. say, madeleine has manoeuvered me into deep sh.., no idea how to get out. could you talk to boris? helmut: "zis iss no problem bill, vill send zome vodka by UPS and zenn i call boris. shpeek to you later" helmut calls boris. "tovarish, remember zee old times we saunaed togezer und how vee zettled nato expansion to the east? i vant zome favour for old times zake. do zomezing wiz zis milo.. vhat's his name in beograd!" boris: "helmut, siss iss difficult. i khave warned nato and clinton. they not listen, now they suffer. and duma is up mine. what can do?"
Wed Apr 21 11:40:48 EDT 1999
wally: helmut: "make this milo.. stop zee ahh.... kleansing" boris: "helmut, you make nato first stop war" helmut: "vhat iff i ask bill to talk to imf, paris klub and london klub?" boris: "i am no member". helmut: "i mean cash for mutter russia and restrukt.... or vhat zey call it ze debt" boris: deal helmut, will instrukt primakov accordingly".
Wed Apr 21 11:43:24 EDT 1999
unpourtous: Gentlemen, let's stop kidding ourselves. We have always based our investments on the premise that official policy would support our priviledged position. This is no longer the case. The rules have fundamentally changed and holding weak em paper is now a fools game. Wait until you have a clearer idea of how these official pronouncements translate into actions, in other words until you find out where the "balance" that Rubin referred to will be.
Wed Apr 21 11:52:54 EDT 1999
anonymous: Rubin's speech was very negative. The U.S. official policy is now in favor of "bail-ins".
Wed Apr 21 11:55:07 EDT 1999
wally: unpourtous: no need for us to wait. look at the message left. we have entered a new era. now defaults can be brought FORWARD at least according to some brain amputated journalist from AP ! MOSCOW (AP) --Russia defaulted Tuesday on $1.3 billion in bonds.
Wed Apr 21 11:55:07 EDT 1999
anonymous: but it's up to the countries to decide if to do so, right?
Wed Apr 21 12:06:03 EDT 1999
anonymous: Rubin's speech: http://www.treas.gov/press/releases/pr3093.htm "When a government's capacity to pay its debts on time and in full may depend on the provision of official resources, we believe that the international community will need always to consider carefully whether there is a role for the private sector in sharing the burden of adjustment. But, as I have just discussed, the question of what this role should be in a given case is extraordinarily complicated. In some cases it may be appropriate to seek maintenance of exposure levels or to seek a restructuring or refinancing of a country's private debt obligations. In other -- truly exceptional -- cases, negotiations may break down and it may not be possible to avoid a temporary interruption in some debt payments." OUCH!!!!!!!!!
Wed Apr 21 12:44:44 EDT 1999
anonymous: anybody have current quotes on rf euros?
Wed Apr 21 12:55:16 EDT 1999
Savonarola: Friends, although it might seem to be the case, it is not Rubin or Summers or anyone like that who will decide whether Russian Euros remain current or not. You should listen more carefully to what the Russians themselves say. I know this sounds a bit silly but the fact is that they have not moved an inch on what they have been saying since for several months: 1) Soviet era debt will not see a dime until restructured, 2) Euros will continue to be serviced 3) GKOs refinincing will not be altered. An this is exactly what is happening. So whoever chose to believe the Russians has double or treble his/her money over the last few months. Rubin/Summers might say whatever they want, but it is the Russians who decide what they pay. There isn't in the world an international bankruptcy court..
Wed Apr 21 13:01:30 EDT 1999
anonymous: 4-21-99 Savonarola, I think we may be missing the point. Any further official assistance -- i.e., IMF, World Bank, Paris Club, etc. -- will linked to the "bail-in" of the private sector. I hope you are right.
Wed Apr 21 13:09:36 EDT 1999
anonymous: wally: what do you think of this noise? GR
Wed Apr 21 13:16:02 EDT 1999
Savonarola: Anonymous: I understand your point, but think like a Russian: 1) World Bank money is not that huge, 2) PC is very old debt, nobody will upset bondholders to please bureaucrats in Paris. Think of Nigeria, they have been in arrears with PC since I've been around, still, they service Bradys and PNs, 3) IMF is the sticky point. Numbers are big. An here is where you make your bet. In my view the Russians will prefer to continue servicing the bonds, hoping for a come back some day, rather than cut a deal with the IMF on conditions that will take them out of the capital markets for the forseable future..
Wed Apr 21 13:22:29 EDT 1999
anonymous: I'm with ya, but just think the crap that we thought was behind us is now back on the front burner.
Wed Apr 21 13:26:44 EDT 1999
anonymous: << Savonarola, I think we may be missing the point. Any further official assistance -- i.e., IMF, World Bank, Paris Club, etc. -- will linked to the "bail-in" of the private sector. I hope you are right. >> Exactly the point. Further assistance what we have just been told is that further assistance WILL be conditional on a bail-in.
Wed Apr 21 14:02:40 EDT 1999
Cheetah: Venezuelan Equities UP more than 50% in USD, Electricidad de Caracas, SIVENSA , and CANTV (VNT) all hit UP UP UP 50%, SORRY I said it was going to happen in 2-3 Months instead of 2-3 WEEKS !!! Where are you SINNOMBRE and your projections ??? Short Cheat - DAH ? It's my LAUGH to the BANK....
Wed Apr 21 14:06:17 EDT 1999
anonymous: Did Robert Rubin just give a major sell signal to Ecuadorian bonds?
Wed Apr 21 14:12:26 EDT 1999
anonymous: O.K. Cheat, you're a genius. Now go toot your horn on ego.com.
Wed Apr 21 14:51:15 EDT 1999
anonymous: With Asian markets on the mend and oil, and other commodity prices staging a comeback, many operators now fear that any big rise in the price of gold, which this month nearly retested last year's 18-year low at $270 per ounce, could spark a furious scramble to cover shorts. << GOLD GONNA FLY.....
Wed Apr 21 14:53:49 EDT 1999
wally: GR: you said it already. until now it's NOISE. before jumping to serious (panic) conclusions i prefer the wait and see approach.
Wed Apr 21 14:55:21 EDT 1999
Savonarola: Rubin had a great chance to apply his fabulous "bail-in" theory recently with Brazil and instead chose to lend Brazil billions of "official" money without any condition of that kind. Thanks to that Brazil stabilised its currency and now is coming back to the market. Imagine if he would have requested a moratorium on Euro/Brady payments...Brazil would certainly not be issuing any paper for a long long time. The same applies to Ecuador and Russia. If Pakistan does not pay is because they choose not to do it.... So no fear friends..euros remain safe as long as the issuer wants to pay them...
Wed Apr 21 14:55:29 EDT 1999
wally: <GOLD GONNA FLY..> yes sure, as soon as pigs can grow wings by genetic engineering.
Wed Apr 21 15:07:04 EDT 1999
wally: to OUCH!!: i think what is more serious in rubin's speech is the next sentence. quote:<<More broadly, there is no reason why one category of unsecured private creditors should be regarded as inherently privileged relative to others in a similar position. When both are material, claims of bondholders should not be viewed as necessarily senior to claims of banks.>>end quote.
Wed Apr 21 15:15:35 EDT 1999
wally: emerging markets are not too scared of robert rubin. spreads widening by a mere 10 (ten) bps. if 'bail-ins' will really occur in future we won't see single digit yields in emg any more (not in OUR lifetime). for some investors very hard to swallow (the haircut) for others a bonanza.
Wed Apr 21 15:23:54 EDT 1999
anonymous: In July 1920, Charles Ponzi, a brash Italian immigrant, convinced investors in Boston that he could double their money in mere months by speculating in foreign postal issues. He was a brilliant salesman and an effective marketer, but his plan was pie-in-the-sky. The papers, however, heralded Ponzi as a genius, and Bostonians literally lined up to give him money.<<<< Yesterday's Internet Investors!!!
Wed Apr 21 15:29:50 EDT 1999
wally: front burner: it seems you have not been too long in EMG bonds. there was always the crap looming around the corner. the only difference now is that the periods have shortened from several years to several months. just keep a cool head.
Wed Apr 21 15:32:12 EDT 1999
Cheetah: "there should be provisions (in NEW issues) so that privates... bear the same...." Rubin ... wonder which "privates" he was talking about, Billy Bobs ?
Wed Apr 21 15:39:30 EDT 1999
wally: savonarola: all your conclusions are logical and i fully agree, but now -not only the bureaucrats in paris- but those in D.C. too want to be pleased. "D.C.", "pleased", sounds somehow familiar to me. weren't there some rumours last year about a certain office in D.C. where certain bureaucrats were pleased?
Wed Apr 21 15:54:46 EDT 1999
wally: cheetah: can't find rubin quote "there should be provisions.." in today's release.
Wed Apr 21 15:57:05 EDT 1999
anonymous: http://eve.bradynet.com/cgi-bin/popup.pl?look=0 why all noise? tofu.
Wed Apr 21 16:06:09 EDT 1999
anonymous: Wally, Gentlemen prefer bonds!
Wed Apr 21 16:11:54 EDT 1999
anonymous: Wally, Rubin wants to slaughter our sacred euro cows!!! scared
Wed Apr 21 16:17:26 EDT 1999
anonymous: who told Rubin holding this speech?
Wed Apr 21 16:17:46 EDT 1999
wally: scared: rubin was just honing a knife. first slaughtered euro cow will cause an EMG crisis dwarfing all others. don't be scared, just bear with us. personally i consider rubin too intelligent to really mean what he said today. however one must not forget he is presently a politician and therefore rangebound
Wed Apr 21 16:19:16 EDT 1999
Goldbug: <<GOLD GONNA FLY>> Gold is at the center of the financial universe. US Treasuries, Brady bonds, all curriences, are but tiny satellites circling 'round. The value of those bonds you hold can be objectively measured by the amount of gold which they can be used to purchase.
Wed Apr 21 16:29:43 EDT 1999
unpourtous: Does anybody know the exact maturity date of the new Chilean issue?
Wed Apr 21 16:32:31 EDT 1999
anonymous: Wally, Think we will start to see 3 tier market. The "welfare" queens such as Ecuador, Russia, and others, who should start to show weakness and the other strong fundamental countries who should show strength. Rubin even spoke of that investors know these bonds may default because of their high yields. This is getting strange.
Wed Apr 21 16:34:03 EDT 1999
anonymous: 4-21-99 Anonymous: who told Rubin holding this speech? <<<CLinton mentioned it yesterday.
Wed Apr 21 17:03:28 EDT 1999
wally: goldbug: are you sure you live in the same time/space continuum like us? gold is just a commodity, price is the result of offer and demand. one of the biggest U.S. brokers forecasted in 1995 that gold will cross 2.000/ounce in 1998. of course they did not mention which currency. in turkey (local currency) one ounce is TLI 110,000,000 (roughly).
Wed Apr 21 17:06:10 EDT 1999
anonymous: wally, then why is sh.. so cheap? billions of flies like it. big demand!
Wed Apr 21 17:07:53 EDT 1999
wally: because of big offer from all sides. look what our politicians are producing. we covered that topic already.
Wed Apr 21 17:09:49 EDT 1999
anonymous: Could someone do something to fix color2 page (it is not updating at the moment) so that earlier comments do not sink into a black hole? Thank you.
Wed Apr 21 17:26:38 EDT 1999
anonymous: what mean color2 page? tofu
Wed Apr 21 17:30:33 EDT 1999
anonymous: lots of bugs at bradynet. don't know..
Wed Apr 21 17:42:36 EDT 1999
anonymous: Duke Energy Corp. <DUK.N> has withdrawn its $3 billion tender offer to buy 60 percent in Chile's largest power producer, Endesa-Chile <EOC.N> <END.SN>, brokerage BanChile said on Wednesday.
Wed Apr 21 17:55:52 EDT 1999
anonymous: For all of you that are discussing gold, please check the news at left column of this page. There are 2 intresting articles "Weak gold prices spark talk of market manipulation NEW YORK, April 20 (Reuters) - Some gold market players may be colluding to keep gold prices near their lowest levels in 18 years, an industry group claimed Tuesday, though there are also several economic factors that may account for the slide in gold prices since 1996, traders said." and "04/21 15:12 GFMS sees gold stuck in weak $265-$305 band in '99 NEW YORK, April 21 (Reuters) - Sluggish world growth and negative supply/demand fundamentals will hinder a gold rally and keep the price in a range of $265 to $305 per ounce in 1999, Gold Fields Mineral Services (GFMS) said in a report on Wednesday.
Wed Apr 21 18:03:39 EDT 1999
anonymous: Access to the dollar debt market is very good for Brazil ut their problem continues to be real debt
Wed Apr 21 18:08:19 EDT 1999
Cciano: Buba's vice pres. Stark saying more or less same thing as Rubin.(http://finanzen.yahoo.de/)
Wed Apr 21 18:16:29 EDT 1999
anonymous: The problem with color2 has been solved.
Wed Apr 21 18:17:24 EDT 1999
JCL: To Unpourtous: The new Chilean bonds matures in April 28, 2009 with a coupon of 6 7/8
Wed Apr 21 18:23:38 EDT 1999
anonymous: 04-21-99 Cciano: (62.81.66.208) Buba's vice pres. Stark saying more or less same thing as Rubin.(http://finanzen.yahoo.de/) << It's a bloody global conspiracy against private sector bond holders!!!!! Sell Russia, sell Ecuador, sell Paki, sell ???
Wed Apr 21 18:27:27 EDT 1999
Daniel: <<04-20-99 JPC: Hey Check out the new BradyNet's Forums. It seems that now everybody has to put a handle or no message will be posted! http://www.bradynet.com/bbs/index.html Good idea BradyNet>> A word to the wise... it's just a matter of time before this idea comes to the Color of the Market, so if you don't already have a BradyNet account you should go get yours immediately. It's 100% free and you get to use some features which previously were only for paying subscribers. Plus, if you want, you can set up your "profile" to let other Bradynetters know more about you.
Wed Apr 21 19:03:10 EDT 1999
wally: cciano: buba & stark. bloeder hund wie alle buerokraten. unlike tietmeyer who is/was a mini-greenspan. looks like a 'concerted action'. we have to watch carefully.
Wed Apr 21 19:16:15 EDT 1999
anonymous: thanks jcl
Wed Apr 21 19:26:26 EDT 1999
anonymous: "Sluggish world growth and negative supply/demand fundamentals will hinder a gold rally and keep the price in a range of $265 to $305 per ounce in 1999, Gold Fields Mineral Services"
Wed Apr 21 21:35:19 EDT 1999
anonymous: all shocked and stunned by rubin? cowards! grüezi. gnom vo zueri
Wed Apr 21 21:40:45 EDT 1999
anonymous: It will be "very easy" to seek a political solution to the Kosovo crisis but only after NATO bombing stops, Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic said in an interview broadcast on Wednesday by a Houston television station.
Wed Apr 21 22:26:57 EDT 1999
bondj: Seller of volatility.,mexico ums 26 trading at 118 1/2., thats precrisis levels., sell calls at the money for 15 days and get paid some .75 cts., if you get executed you sell at 118.5+.75=119.25, once you get excercised(if it happens) you sell a put at the money and you will soon find out that the cash you receive by selling volatility is higher than the coupons you receive. c bonds should soon go back to the 68s and emerging mkt players will be looking very close to the us equity market., sell now calls on ums 26,c bond and arge 27....
Wed Apr 21 23:28:07 EDT 1999
anonymous: Y2K Expert Worried About Russia By TED BRIDIS Associated Press Writer WASHINGTON (AP) - The White House on Wednesday expressed its most serious concerns to date over anticipated Year 2000 computer failures overseas, particularly among Russian-designed nuclear plants in nine countries. In its latest report on the technology glitch, President Clinton's top Y2K expert, John Koskinen, said one of his greatest international concerns was ensuring safe operation of 65 such nuclear plants, including one in eastern Russia, not far from Alaska. Koskinen, who heads Clinton's Year 2000 Conversion Council, said those nuclear plants are in countries ``obviously with major economic problems,'' and U.S. experts know few details about how the Russian equipment will react to the date rollover. ``To the extent you don't have information, you get more nervous about it,'' Koskinen said Wednesday. ``We are focused on it. It is an important problem.'' An expert on those nuclear plants, Richard Wilson of Harvard University, said control systems to prevent serious accidents are mostly not computerized, although some electronic monitors could be affected by the technology glitch. ``It's certainly something that we should try to get straight,'' Wilson said. ``It doesn't cost much to have a half-dozen experts looking carefully at the problem. The probability is that they'll come up with nothing important, nothing crucial. There's a small probability they'll come up with something.'' Just last week, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Vladimir Bulgak announced that the Y2K problem will not threaten his country's nuclear missiles or its nuclear power stations. But he also said Russia will need Western help to pay for computer repairs. The latest report from the White House reflects unprecedented pessimism about overseas efforts by the administration, warning that failures in some foreign countries are now all but certain in electric power, telecommunications and transportation networks.<<<< ARE YOU LISTENING, ANYONE?
Wed Apr 21 23:28:35 EDT 1999
anonymous: Y2K Expert Worried About Russia By TED BRIDIS Associated Press Writer WASHINGTON (AP) - The White House on Wednesday expressed its most serious concerns to date over anticipated Year 2000 computer failures overseas, particularly among Russian-designed nuclear plants in nine countries. In its latest report on the technology glitch, President Clinton's top Y2K expert, John Koskinen, said one of his greatest international concerns was ensuring safe operation of 65 such nuclear plants, including one in eastern Russia, not far from Alaska. Koskinen, who heads Clinton's Year 2000 Conversion Council, said those nuclear plants are in countries ``obviously with major economic problems,'' and U.S. experts know few details about how the Russian equipment will react to the date rollover. ``To the extent you don't have information, you get more nervous about it,'' Koskinen said Wednesday. ``We are focused on it. It is an important problem.'' An expert on those nuclear plants, Richard Wilson of Harvard University, said control systems to prevent serious accidents are mostly not computerized, although some electronic monitors could be affected by the technology glitch. ``It's certainly something that we should try to get straight,'' Wilson said. ``It doesn't cost much to have a half-dozen experts looking carefully at the problem. The probability is that they'll come up with nothing important, nothing crucial. There's a small probability they'll come up with something.'' Just last week, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Vladimir Bulgak announced that the Y2K problem will not threaten his country's nuclear missiles or its nuclear power stations. But he also said Russia will need Western help to pay for computer repairs. The latest report from the White House reflects unprecedented pessimism about overseas efforts by the administration, warning that failures in some foreign countries are now all but certain in electric power, telecommunications and transportation networks.<<<< ARE YOU LISTENING, ANYONE?
Wed Apr 21 23:29:55 EDT 1999
anonymous: Y2K Expert Worried About Russia By TED BRIDIS Associated Press Writer WASHINGTON (AP) - The White House on Wednesday expressed its most serious concerns to date over anticipated Year 2000 computer failures overseas, particularly among Russian-designed nuclear plants in nine countries. In its latest report on the technology glitch, President Clinton's top Y2K expert, John Koskinen, said one of his greatest international concerns was ensuring safe operation of 65 such nuclear plants, including one in eastern Russia, not far from Alaska. Koskinen, who heads Clinton's Year 2000 Conversion Council, said those nuclear plants are in countries ``obviously with major economic problems,'' and U.S. experts know few details about how the Russian equipment will react to the date rollover. ``To the extent you don't have information, you get more nervous about it,'' Koskinen said Wednesday. ``We are focused on it. It is an important problem.'' An expert on those nuclear plants, Richard Wilson of Harvard University, said control systems to prevent serious accidents are mostly not computerized, although some electronic monitors could be affected by the technology glitch. ``It's certainly something that we should try to get straight,'' Wilson said. ``It doesn't cost much to have a half-dozen experts looking carefully at the problem. The probability is that they'll come up with nothing important, nothing crucial. There's a small probability they'll come up with something.'' Just last week, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Vladimir Bulgak announced that the Y2K problem will not threaten his country's nuclear missiles or its nuclear power stations. But he also said Russia will need Western help to pay for computer repairs. The latest report from the White House reflects unprecedented pessimism about overseas efforts by the administration, warning that failures in some foreign countries are now all but certain in electric power, telecommunications and transportation networks.<<<< ARE YOU LISTENING, ANYONE?
Wed Apr 21 23:30:58 EDT 1999
anonymous: Y2K Expert Worried About Russia By TED BRIDIS Associated Press Writer WASHINGTON (AP) - The White House on Wednesday expressed its most serious concerns to date over anticipated Year 2000 computer failures overseas, particularly among Russian-designed nuclear plants in nine countries. In its latest report on the technology glitch, President Clinton's top Y2K expert, John Koskinen, said one of his greatest international concerns was ensuring safe operation of 65 such nuclear plants, including one in eastern Russia, not far from Alaska. Koskinen, who heads Clinton's Year 2000 Conversion Council, said those nuclear plants are in countries ``obviously with major economic problems,'' and U.S. experts know few details about how the Russian equipment will react to the date rollover. ``It's certainly something that we should try to get straight,'' Wilson said. ``It doesn't cost much to have a half-dozen experts looking carefully at the problem. The probability is that they'll come up with nothing important, nothing crucial. There's a small probability they'll come up with something.'' Just last week, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Vladimir Bulgak announced that the Y2K problem will not threaten his country's nuclear missiles or its nuclear power stations. But he also said Russia will need Western help to pay for computer repairs. The latest report from the White House reflects unprecedented pessimism about overseas efforts by the administration, warning that failures in some foreign countries are now all but certain in electric power, telecommunications and transportation networks.<<<< ARE YOU LISTENING, ANYONE?
Wed Apr 21 23:31:27 EDT 1999
Cheetah: So whats the all the FUSS about -tried to buy more Russia 18 and 28 at the end of the day - no sellers around.. OLD Russian Euro's will be sought after and will carry a premium ! By the way rumor I hear is that BIG BUYBACK ongoing of Russian Euro's thru secret accounts ... RIGHT ON PRIMAKOV !!!!
Wed Apr 21 23:31:49 EDT 1999
anonymous: Y2K Expert Worried About Russia By TED BRIDIS Associated Press Writer WASHINGTON (AP) - The White House on Wednesday expressed its most serious concerns to date over anticipated Year 2000 computer failures overseas, particularly among Russian-designed nuclear plants in nine countries. <<<< ARE YOU LISTENING, ANYONE?
Wed Apr 21 23:41:14 EDT 1999
anonymous: n its latest report on the technology glitch, President Clinton's top Y2K expert, John Koskinen, said one of his greatest international concerns was ensuring safe operation of 65 such nuclear plants, including one in eastern Russia, not far from Alaska. Koskinen, who heads Clinton's Year 2000 Conversion Council, said those nuclear plants are in countries ``obviously with major economic problems,'' and U.S. experts know few details about how the Russian equipment will react to the date rollover.<<< WHEN DOES THE PANIC SET IN? OR DO WE STAY IN DENIAL???
Wed Apr 21 23:44:02 EDT 1999
anonymous: The latest report from the White House reflects unprecedented pessimism about overseas efforts by the administration, warning that failures in some foreign countries are now all but certain in electric power, telecommunications and transportation networks. It said those problems will affect Americans living abroad and also will affect the global economy - due to international travel and trade - and are sure to be felt in the United States, too. ``Any failure anywhere will have a ripple effect on us,'' Koskinen said. The government will issue specific warnings to travelers late this summer or early fall.XXX!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Thu Apr 22 00:51:51 EDT 1999
anonymous: What's up with closing prices BradyNet ???, showing July'78 prices ???
Thu Apr 22 02:54:53 EDT 1999
anonymous: Thank you gnom for your first real comment on BN yet. rgds. Spadolini
Thu Apr 22 04:55:30 EDT 1999
Cciano: What if Rubin/Stark are only scaring bondholders to stop the rally and beat down prices of rf euros in order to help russia to buy them back as part of an agreement towards yugoslawia? Imposible? Rubins speech makes only sense to me regarding russia. Other countries, Pakistan left aside, are far from default, so why should they not serve their payments? Furtheron, Rubin can't change the legal basics of existing bonds, an Euro 144A e.g. and if the IMF stops to bailout any country in severe crisis, the consequences will hit G7 countries themselves. So what?
Thu Apr 22 05:01:38 EDT 1999
anonymous: BLOODY RUBIN only trying to scare investors!!RF euros up this morning!
Thu Apr 22 05:07:05 EDT 1999
wally: cciano: nothing is impossible, but it makes no sense to me that russia is buying back euros especially those with long maturity. it makes perfect sense however that they buy back ians, prins and mfins.
Thu Apr 22 05:08:45 EDT 1999
wally: euros were already up in NY AFTER rubin's comments were made public.
Thu Apr 22 05:29:57 EDT 1999
Savonarola: Guys, sorry for being insistent...but stop looking at washington and look at the debtor country...Rubin had a chance to apply his "bail-in" theory in Brazil and did not do it...may be he did try and Cardozo sent him to F....off. The same thing in Russia. Romania is signing..no mention to euros. Rubin's theory is for internal consumption in the USA. In any case Rubin is leaving soon together with Summers...Russian Euros are going to Brazil spread levels before year end, and probably lower as Russia does not have the huge domestic debt Brazil has. The same applies to Russian corporates. Very viable concerns like MGTS, Tatneft, Lukoil, Irkutskenergo are still trading above the 50% over...senseless!! GRAB THEM WHILE YOU CAN!!!
Thu Apr 22 05:33:01 EDT 1999
optimist: right wally, no chance of euros buy bck , moscow still strained in cash. And as to rubin, apparently, his speech has nothing to do with "secret agreements" with russia. I think it rather reflects US position towards IMF lending. As widely known theres opposition within imf to limitless lending.
Thu Apr 22 05:42:46 EDT 1999
wally: camdessus in line with rubin. south china morning post (excerpt) International Monetary Fund managing director Michel Camdessus yesterday put intense pressure on the private sector to become more involved in bailing out crisis-hit countries. "What we consider is that at the moment we take every risk to bring countries back to normality, and the private sector should also be involved." Mr Camdessus' comments are likely to spark irritation among banks and emerging market investors, who believe such measures will only prove counter-productive. The International Institute of Finance, which represents most of the world's largest banks, and which is chaired by HSBC chairman John Bond, believes that greater transparency is a better solution, and is resisting some of the private sector "bailin" proposals made by the IMF.
Thu Apr 22 05:54:34 EDT 1999
wally: <closing prices BradyNet ???> this is a part of rubin's and camdessus' conspiracy to involve bradynet and get bradynetters used to the "new financial world order". in essence: there is no free ride for you private investors. you have to bail-in and share the burden. subscribe!
Thu Apr 22 05:58:21 EDT 1999
wally: question: who said it first??? United States Treasury Secretary Robert RUBIN has ECHOED IMF managing director Michel Camdessus' comments, saying foreign private creditors have to take responsibility when emerging markets investments go bad. In an address to Johns Hopkins University, he detailed the new US initiative to support international economies and prevent future turmoil. He said there should be provisions in bond contracts to make private lenders share responsibility when lending crises occur. Mr Rubin also called on development banks and the IMF to undertake "fast-disbursing emergency lending" to shield vulnerable areas of a society from financial turbulence.
Thu Apr 22 06:06:12 EDT 1999
anonymous: 'BAIL IN'.The thing that seems to me very important for RF euros holders is that, no matter what, there will be no bail in.The reason is quite simple:RUSSIA has divided foreign debt in two, soviet and russian debts.It has pledged to stay current on all russian debtS not only euros and restructure all soviet debts.So there's nothing to bail in as PARIS AND LONDON CLUB'S RUSSIAN DEBTS WILL ALSO BE PAYED ON TIME AND IN FULL.SALUTI DA MILANO LEONARDO DA VINCI.
Thu Apr 22 08:31:47 EDT 1999
Daniel: Problems with the free closing prices at http://www.bradynet.com/prices.html have been corrected. As Wally pointed out, premium users were unaffected :)
Thu Apr 22 08:53:48 EDT 1999
optimist: Trade idea for bradynetters - buy rf 07 out of 18 A bit scary in terms of initial carry, but will be well awarded since regular spread is about+300 bp, and now they trade even.
Thu Apr 22 08:54:57 EDT 1999
optimist: Trade idea for bradynetters - buy rf 07 out of 18 A bit scary in terms of initial carry, but will be well awarded since regular spread is about+275 bp, and now they trade -185
Thu Apr 22 08:55:58 EDT 1999
opti: sorry latest version is correct
Thu Apr 22 09:11:46 EDT 1999
¤wally¤: optimist: big bid/ask spreads are narrowing bps spread plus you have to consider the longer 'lock-in' of rf18. i'd rather switch from rf07 to rf28 (put in 08!).
Thu Apr 22 09:24:20 EDT 1999
¤ wally ¤: opti: have you seen the latest rf18 prices?!
Thu Apr 22 09:46:30 EDT 1999
Savonarola: I agree with Wally regarding RF 18 vs RF 07, no reason to give away one percentaje point per annum in coupon to have a shorter maturity. All euros will be trading close to par before year end anyway. So you better lock in a higher current yield. By the way...Brazil 27 pre IMF deal was in the low 50s..post IMF deal is in the low 80s....So the IMF deal plus the stabilization of the Real was worth 30 points....How much will it be for Russian Euros....??? answer:....30 points also!!!
Thu Apr 22 09:52:16 EDT 1999
anonymous: Do you agree with leonardo da vinci of milan?.I think he's absolutely right.
Thu Apr 22 10:15:44 EDT 1999
anonymous: This contribution is a must for all U.S.PATRIOTS and Europeans! http://www.orlandosentinel.com/opinion/columnists/reese/042299_reese22_21.htm
Thu Apr 22 10:19:19 EDT 1999
¤ wally ¤: <All euros will be trading close to par before year end> aren't you a bit too optimistic?
Thu Apr 22 10:32:38 EDT 1999
Savonarola: Wally, I do not think I am too optimistic. That's where the Euros were in 1997 before all the Asian mess started. Mex is higher than par, Argie is back there, Brazil is 18 points away... As soon as investors get into their heads that Russia will continue servicing the Euros punctually, despite restructuring Soviet era debt, the rally will accelarate...
Thu Apr 22 11:04:04 EDT 1999
anonymous: TO SAVONAROLA:100% AGREED.LEONARDO DA VINCI FROM MIlAN
Thu Apr 22 11:17:55 EDT 1999
¤ wally ¤: savonarola: you know, leonardo knows, alex knows, and even my 'humble' self know that the russian will service their euros. the big question is: do the russians know ???
Thu Apr 22 11:18:09 EDT 1999
PILLX: World Bank President James Wolfensohn said Thursday that bank negotiators are "very, very close" to a new loan agreement with Russia that would release $1.80 billion in stalled loans. World Bank is nearing the conclusion of negotiations with the Russian government on the new conditions it will face if it is to have access the funds promised by the World Bank under last June's international support package.Wolfensohn said he recently returned from a visit to Russia with a "constructive view" of the reform efforts contemplated by Russian Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov.He said he had meetings with several leading members of Russia's parliament, the Duma, and that all - with the exception of nationalist Vladimir Zhirinovsky - pledged their support for Primakov.Wolfensohn said he hopes the World Bank "will be able to come to a deal with the Russians" and that progress on this front may be made over the "next few days."
Thu Apr 22 11:31:16 EDT 1999
anonymous: TO WALLY:The russian government knows very well Russia must service eurobonds simply because the costs of non servicing them is higher than the cost of servicing!!!Why shoot at yourself for "just" 17 bio$!!!!.
Thu Apr 22 11:45:35 EDT 1999
anonymous: Sold out of my Russian eurobonds. 2 risky. Eurobond interest is 30% of usuable reserves. Balkan war 2 risky. 2 much complacency in the market. Volatility in U.S. stocks signalling something ominous. Don't like noises on Y2K coming out of the White House and expect markets to start focusing on it in the next few months. Everyone getting long. Nice bid to exit. Thank you for those selling in the low 20's and screaming default (Chase, JP MO, & M. Lynch) and now buying and getting bullish to get us out. Thank you BradyNet for this forum of reasonable and wise traders.
Thu Apr 22 11:48:24 EDT 1999
anonymous: I doubt it very much that the World Bank will lend money to Russia to make their Eurobond payments. I doubt it very much.....
Thu Apr 22 11:49:03 EDT 1999
PILLX: Between $50 billion and $250 billion has been illegally transferred out of Russia to Western banks in the past five years, Russian officials said Thursday, Interfax reported. Russian Interior Ministry officials said offshore zones, particularly in Cyprus, are key laundering centers for illicit Russian capital. Germany is a popular onward destination from Cyprus, the officials said. There are more than 50 Russian real estate and foreign trade firms in the Rhine region of Germany where local officials have estimated that the illegal turnover of Russian capital is up to $150 million a week. From Germany the now-clean money is shipped all over the world, the agency said, particularly to U.S., Swiss, or Japanese banks.
Thu Apr 22 11:50:33 EDT 1999
anonymous: 4-22-99 Anonymous: TO WALLY:The russian government knows very well Russia must service eurobonds simply because the costs of non servicing them is higher than the cost of servicing!!!Why shoot at yourself for "just" 17 bio$!!!!. <<< SAME ARGUMENT STREET MADE ABOUT PRINS AND IANS.
Thu Apr 22 12:10:57 EDT 1999
anonymous: Germans say in FT today that Eurobonds should not be restructured in Paris Club. But also said that Russia not eligible for debt relief. Good and bad news. I think Germans will change their tune if they are forced to take a hit though.
Thu Apr 22 12:11:46 EDT 1999
Savonarola: Friends, post soviet era debt service for 1999 is: Euros $1.644Bn, IMF: $4.74 Bn, WB: $ 0.9 Bn, Bilateral: $1.6 Bn, Trade: 0.8 Bn. Total: App $9.7 bn...which is perfectly possible for Russia (a country running $2.5 bn trade surplus per month) to service, assuming the price of oil remains around here and the IMF/WB help rolling over at least part of its debt. Next coupon payment season will be the catalyst...Major rally in the third quarter of this year....
Thu Apr 22 12:17:13 EDT 1999
anonymous: 04-22-99 Savonarola: (194.112.55.241) Friends, post soviet era debt service for 1999 is: Euros $1.644Bn, IMF: $4.74 Bn, WB: $ 0.9 Bn, Bilateral: $1.6 Bn, Trade: 0.8 Bn. Total: App $9.7 bn...which is perfectly possible for Russia (a country running $2.5 bn trade surplus per month) to service, assu<<< YOU FORGOT ADD ANOTHER $25 BN OF CAPITAL FLIGHT.... WHY WOULD EXPORTERS KEEP DOLLARS IN RUBLES AFTER? DON'T KID YOURSELF RUSSIA'S RESERVES ARE RUNNING AT DANGEROUSLY LOW LEVELS.
Thu Apr 22 12:55:52 EDT 1999
anonymous: Didn't they keep dancing at the Titanic was seeking?
Thu Apr 22 13:06:00 EDT 1999
Savonarola: Anonymous: if reserves were at comfortable levels and there would be no capital flight, we would not be talking about Russia and prices would be at Mexico levels. For dollars to stay in the country confidence is needed. Paying the coupons is part of rebuilding that confidence. The IMF/WB financing will also help. Finally, exporters will keep the dollars in Russia as long as business opportunities exist. You need GDP growth for that..etc....You see my point...looking at reserves is very simplistic. You want high reserves?..ok! exit Brady net and trade Kingdom of Sweden bonds!!!
Thu Apr 22 13:24:03 EDT 1999
anonymous: 04-22-99 Savonarola: (194.112.55.82) Anonymous: if reserves were at comfortable levels and there would be no capi<<<< IF YOU WANT FANTASY AND WISHFUL THINKING, EXIT BRADYNET AND GO TO Disney.com....
Thu Apr 22 13:32:02 EDT 1999
anonymous: SV: Also note IMF and World Bank deal not based on economics, but political. It will not include structural adjustment or any major pain that is needed to stabilize Russia. It won't include any new net cash but a rollover of principal. It may be a shadow program for a couple months with no disbursements, until Russia enacts some reforms. So reserves could fall another US$1 Bn before IMF begins to rollover debt. Official creditors will take out money from Russia with a deal. So, with no hard program, no new cash flowing in, where is money gonna come from to increase reserves and continue to service? This is the high point of the range. Sometimes, as Bob Rubin says, high yields reflect real default risk. The economic situation in Russia continues to deteriorate, it is politically unstable, and the smart money is starting to get out on this strength. Keep dreamin' SV. As for me, I will trade it.
Thu Apr 22 13:45:09 EDT 1999
anonymous: Anon, you are not á jour. Russia will get IMF disbursement soon and a ceasefire in Yugoslavia is near. To be invested in RF is to believe in peace - too pathetically for your taste?
Thu Apr 22 13:49:09 EDT 1999
anonymous: why do you all talk so much about russia? aren't there any influenciable things going on in other contries? what do you think about the brazil´s latest issue, for exemple?
Thu Apr 22 13:50:53 EDT 1999
anonymous: 04-22-99 Anonymous: Anon, you are not á jour. Russia will get IMF disbursement soon and a ceasefire in Yugoslavia is near. To be invested in RF is to believe in peace - too pathetically for your taste? << Tell that to the GKO holders. Peace hurts Russian leverage. Your profits in Eurobonds is blood money. If not for the war, the IMF would have cut them loose. You are more pathetic than your illusion and you blood money.
Thu Apr 22 14:01:34 EDT 1999
anonymous: Why does it feel like something going to crack in the U.S.? Getting nervous.
Thu Apr 22 14:02:30 EDT 1999
anonymous: Think you are smoking crack!
Thu Apr 22 14:30:21 EDT 1999
anonymous: What is the cost benefit analysis of the German Paris Club proposal. It sounds like it is bad for Russia.
Thu Apr 22 15:21:30 EDT 1999
¤ wally ¤: ahh... hmm... so... so... blood money? i see. buy? sell?? rally? dow? crack? peace near.. influen(c)iable.. disney.com.. never heard of a rhine region in germany. reasonable and wise traders.
Thu Apr 22 15:40:24 EDT 1999
¤ wally ¤: thinking of selling all rusfed. don't like blood money. will donate all proceeds to NATO. should be enough for a few apache hellfire missiles on a refugee konvoi (that is if they can get the choppers up and running soon).
Thu Apr 22 15:52:18 EDT 1999
anonymous: Ecuador feeling the aftermath of Rubin speech. GR
Thu Apr 22 16:04:58 EDT 1999
¤ wally ¤: flash: serbs agree to U.N. peace force in kosovo! hope there will be peace soon.
Thu Apr 22 16:08:03 EDT 1999
anonymous: I told you so ...
Thu Apr 22 16:08:08 EDT 1999
¤ wally ¤: GR: that explains the EMBI spread widening.
Thu Apr 22 16:25:26 EDT 1999
¤ wally ¤: MOSCOW, April 22 (Reuters) - A Russian envoy said after talks with Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic on Thursday that Belgrade was ready to accept an "international presence" in Kosovo under U.N. auspices, Itar-Tass news agency reported. Tass said Viktor Chernomyrdin, speaking to reporters in Belgrade, had referred to "international forces" but did not make clear whether this meant Belgrade would allow foreign troops into Kosovo. Milosevic has previously opposed allowing foreign troops onto its soil in the conflict with NATO. CAN ANYBODY EXPLAIN THIS MESSAGE ???
Thu Apr 22 16:26:34 EDT 1999
anonymous: White House complains that press was informed first (Kosovo).
Thu Apr 22 16:38:56 EDT 1999
anonymous: Victor & Slobodan's agreement will be presented to NATO tomorrow by Chernomyrdin: UN peace troops (russian forces included) allowed to enter Kosovo. (german TV)
Thu Apr 22 16:42:38 EDT 1999
anonymous: Brazil on Thursday priced $2 billion in global cash bonds at 675 basis points over U.S. Treasury bonds, according to lead manager Morgan Stanley Dean Witte I think the terms set are extremely positive for the country. The pricing, at 675 basis points over Treasuries, was within expectations. But what is more important is that this issue opens up room for future launches by local private companies and allows for a reduction in fund raising costs for Brazil.
Thu Apr 22 16:53:15 EDT 1999
anonymous: Tomorrow is NATO's 50th anniversary, celebrated low key style in DC. Victor has a present, hopefully. Ceasefire in Yugoslavia?!
Thu Apr 22 17:09:30 EDT 1999
anonymous: Several banks in Brazil have already ben able to issue debt, ie. Unibanco, ABN Amro Brasil, etc. With the succes of today's sovereign issue, we should see some blue-chip issues soon!
Thu Apr 22 17:15:50 EDT 1999
unpourtous: does anyone have any idea why so much is wrong with bradynet? the end of day prices aren't there and the pop-up embi doesn't work can we get this info elsewhere?
Thu Apr 22 17:16:41 EDT 1999
Cheetah: To Savaralola: do not worry about being sent to disney.com ro being told you are in fantasy land because of your SPECIFIC recommendations... these same cowardly "Sinnombre" attacks were made two weeks ago when specific recommendations were made to BUY BUY BUY Veni equities, that were going to go up 50% in 2 months...
Thu Apr 22 17:27:45 EDT 1999
anonymous: Cheat: neverwrong.com
Thu Apr 22 17:31:20 EDT 1999
anonymous: http://www.cheetah-spin.com
Thu Apr 22 17:33:26 EDT 1999
Cheetah: Ah SINNOMBRE still hurting from your SHORTS ? and not going LONG Veni equities ??? What was it: Short Cheat-dah, Chort Cheat-dah... ha ha ha all the way to the bank... MAKE specific recommendations Sinnombre....
Thu Apr 22 17:34:45 EDT 1999
anonymous: How many Brady bonds will Brazil repurchase with the Global? Which ones will be repurchased? Is there a buying/selling opportunity here? Contrarian
Thu Apr 22 17:35:08 EDT 1999
anonymous: where did the R18 and R28 close ?
Thu Apr 22 17:36:03 EDT 1999
anonymous: http://www.ego.com/picks/winners/short/cheetah Check it out, Cheat. You are such a good sport!
Thu Apr 22 17:39:38 EDT 1999
Ricardo: Anon bored of so much russia : share your feelings Lat Am Bradies are several times larger, nominal and mkt value wise The big question should be, is Brazil reasonably priced at 13,5 % ? (Cbonds). Is Argentina ok at 10,5 (FRB)? By the way, why on earth would somebody buy the new brazilian issue at 675, if he can have C bonds at 850? Are not the manahers receiving huge commisions and the real return is higher?
Thu Apr 22 17:44:45 EDT 1999
anonymous: never try to subscribe BN service. rather unamerican - helpless in handling their system.
Thu Apr 22 17:45:08 EDT 1999
anonymous: I think Latam is about fairly priced. I do think vol will pick up, so it makes sense to sell as much as you can. Don't think much left in terms of price apprec.. Look for trader range 6 point trading range and be happy with coupie. Would not buy Brazil here. Obsessed with Russia because although it is only 6% of EMBI, it accounts for more than 25% of the spread beaause it is so wide. Does that make sense, Rick?
Thu Apr 22 17:45:41 EDT 1999
anonymous: My dear SINNOMBRE you must of had a very DISTURBED youth, and probably many unsatisfactory sexual experiences which you try to cover by being aggressive in the Bradynet, please seek the help of a professional. First though cover your margin calls once and for all, take yourself out of your MISERY...
Thu Apr 22 17:51:43 EDT 1999
anonymous: 4-22-99 Anonymous: My dear SINNOMBRE you must of had a very DISTURBED youth, and probably many unsatisfactory sexual experiences w<<< Cheat, don't take it so personal! It's all just good fun: Traders releasing stress. Dancing on eachother's grave. It's all part of the market and the characters in the market.
Thu Apr 22 17:53:59 EDT 1999
Cheetah: To "Latam is fairly priced": Corporate issues that are extremely mispriced abound. Names that were managed (mismanaged) by LTCB, Bankers Trust, GS and others, that turned into "orphans" are BARGAINS !!!
Thu Apr 22 17:56:03 EDT 1999
anonymous: 04-22-99 Cheetah: (206.49.192.228) To "Latam is fairly priced": Corporate i<< Cheetah, you are very correct. You must dig now, know your names, to make the big trades. Good point.
Thu Apr 22 17:56:12 EDT 1999
anonymous: To my friend Anonimo, I do not go personal, but I cld recommend some places depending on your travel plans
Thu Apr 22 17:58:40 EDT 1999
anonymous: 04-22-99 Anonymous: To my friend Anonimo, I do not go personal, but I cld recommend some places depending on your travel plans << ALL EARS/GO FOR IT>
Thu Apr 22 17:59:37 EDT 1999
¤ wally ¤: <where did the R18 and R28 close?> UP of course! (today).
Thu Apr 22 18:00:45 EDT 1999
anonymous: 1-2 points higher.
Thu Apr 22 18:01:46 EDT 1999
anonymous: Wally: I told you a 40 handle. Didn't I?
Thu Apr 22 18:03:30 EDT 1999
Cheetah: By scratching the surface, some names come up: in Argi: Fargo, in Peru: Pesquera Austral, in Brazil: CESP, Arisco, Sabesp, Comtel, in Colombia: Transtel, in DR: Tricom, in Mexico: Innova, Pyosa.... any recommendations ?? Thanks
Thu Apr 22 18:05:25 EDT 1999
anonymous: My favorite is TAMSA equity. Has broken out but continues to fly. Also think TELMEX has some room here. Do you like Mex Equities?
Thu Apr 22 18:06:13 EDT 1999
anonymous: what travel cities ?

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