Color of the Market Archive, Page #19
Color of the Market A R C H I V E 

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The Color of the Market has been an online meeting place for people interested in emerging market debt since 1996, and has undergone many changes in that time. We have discovered an old archive of Color of the Market messages, covering 5 months starting in late 1998. For the benefit of both old and new Bradynetters, we present this archive untouched.

Note: Back in these days, the forum software was greatly different than the Color of the Market that we are now accustomed to. Without the requirement of registration, the forum began to attract disrupters who would engage in vulgarities, name-calling, impersonation of users, and other childish hijinks. But if you can wade through the nonsense, some of the comments herein are historic, and prophetic.

Enjoy,
IDEAGlobal/BradyNet Staff

Thu Apr 22 18:13:15 EDT 1999
¤ wally ¤: defending BRADYNET. preamble: i am neither a shareholder nor affiliated in ANY way with bradynet. i am just a poor bugger trying to make a living. but from my point of view (even with some computer glitches once in while) this site is offering an exclusive service second to NONE. try REUTERS or BLOOMBERG and check their prices. unpourtous: <EMBI> no problem any time of the day. a lot depends on your internet provider, your phone line, your location from where you log in and a dozen other technical factors.
Thu Apr 22 18:14:06 EDT 1999
anonymous: O.K. BradyNet.. Let's pledge not to be mean on this site. Enough of that already in the world. We are united in our hunt to make money and be civilized. This site is amazing in that people from all over the world log in and discuss the market. That is astounding! The question is does the market have any more room to run here? Are Russian euros getting toppy at 40. Is Brazil C Bonds going to hit 75 in the next month?
Thu Apr 22 18:18:12 EDT 1999
¤ wally ¤: <40handle> yes, you told me so. i even saw (temporarily) the 40 handle of rf07 and rf18. but no 'irrational exuberance' please; as alan G. used to say. we are still boys in the dark woods and whistling our fear away.
Thu Apr 22 18:21:17 EDT 1999
anonymous: Wally, do you think i.e. is seeping into our market. Do you see a horrific correction? Lot's of buzz in the marekt today about Rubin's change of heart. And some think Ecuador the first to be put to the ttest? Your thoughts please, Wally.
Thu Apr 22 18:26:43 EDT 1999
¤ wally ¤: GR: no real move in ecuador. monkey-business-rumour or the opinion of an ANAL-lyst?
Thu Apr 22 18:36:43 EDT 1999
¤ wally ¤: <Rubin's change of heart> has he changed since yesterday or is it what he said yesterday? please be more specific. ecuador: i have heard the rumour, but the market was NOT really impressed. horrific correction: based on what happened oct97 and aug98 one can't rule out anything. we are facing each and every day a completely new situation. if you think i know more than you than you are wrong. most probably i just have more time for research.
Thu Apr 22 18:40:13 EDT 1999
anonymous: Wally. Ecuador PDI down 2 points. Check e-mail. GR
Thu Apr 22 19:02:12 EDT 1999
¤ wally ¤: GR: please check what you get now!
Thu Apr 22 19:16:05 EDT 1999
¤ wally ¤: GR: PDI min 2 is no real proof (yet) given the wild ride we had during the last weeks on ecuador. but one has to watch out.
Thu Apr 22 21:44:01 EDT 1999
anonymous: wally, what is your strange new screen name?
Thu Apr 22 21:54:19 EDT 1999
¤ wally ¤: NEW YORK, April 22 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin said on Thursday it was in the United States' security interests to provide financial aid to Russia. Asked by New Yorker Editor David Remnick about whether there was any point in providing financial aid to Russia, Rubin replied, the U.S. "had an enormous security interest" in aiding Russia although he characterized the challenges as "vast." Rubin was speaking to an event organized by the New Yorker magazine in New York. With regard to the global financial crisis, Rubin said some of the crisis countries were doing better but it was not enough.******* bob rubin's statement was the result of my phone call in which i put immense pressure him because of the havoc he caused on bradynet wednesday!******
Thu Apr 22 22:44:15 EDT 1999
anonymous: sure, and this is the WALLYNET
Thu Apr 22 22:57:10 EDT 1999
Ricardo: Tks, obsessed with Russia. That 6 % of EMBI represents 25 % of spread means -to me- only that this bonds are cheaper. Not necessarily more interesting. But indeed more appreciation able. Same reasoning would apply today to Ecuador, etc. Again: Why buy the new Braz issue at +675 if much better braz risk alternatives available? Can someone confirm if there are "fringe benefits" for placing agents? Are there actual buyers at 100 % face value?
Thu Apr 22 22:59:11 EDT 1999
¤ wally ¤: <strange new screen name?> for your eyes only! this is a brand new 256 bit encryption code meant for communications between me, CIA, KGB, BND and MOSSAD. since 128 bit encryption is not yet released to be used outside U.S. and canada i had to develop something equivalent or more sophisticated. hush... do not tell anybody. cosmic top secret! the only one able to crack this code is ¤daniel@bradynet¤ (at least that's what i think). and if he knows i hope for his personal safety he won't publish the source code. would be a pity to see him, his wife and his children with new identities in alaska posing as innuit and hunting seals (national security involved). again shshsh...
Thu Apr 22 23:10:14 EDT 1999
¤ wally ¤: <wallynet> off for some time. going on a bloody 10 hour lasting NON-SMOKING flight soon. hope i do not strangle an air hostess.
Thu Apr 22 23:13:14 EDT 1999
cheetah: tell me you didn't like "wallynet"... where are you flying to ?
Thu Apr 22 23:23:41 EDT 1999
anonymous: yea yea yea wally and i am the queen of sheba
Fri Apr 23 01:15:30 EDT 1999
anonymous: venezuela's chavez given new powers !!
Fri Apr 23 06:46:55 EDT 1999
franco: Any one know where can look at quotes of argentina'provinces bonds in USD : Province of Mendoza , semestral , 10% p.a. , due on sept. 4th , 2007. Thank you and see you again
Fri Apr 23 08:25:58 EDT 1999
Savonarola: Funny market this is! Analysts or so called "experts" had been telling us that Russis was doomed, that Euros default was inevitable, the Hyperinflation was round the corner, etc....etc...."The Economist" even forcasted oil to reach $5 per barrel and so the demise of Russia. Nothing happened as the Euros are still being served and as the IMF came back we are even having a rally...What do the 'experts" say now to clean their mistakes??? Well, that if there is an IMF deal it is for political reasons...A break please, wasn't the Brazil IMF deal also political, ie. to avoid the political problem of having the US banks again holding a Brazilian mess in their books. Every IMF deal is political, and the Russain one will be no different....Rally to continue next week!
Fri Apr 23 08:58:24 EDT 1999
anonymous: TO SAVONAROLA:BID ASK RF 28' PlEASE?TNX IN ADV.
Fri Apr 23 09:03:07 EDT 1999
anonymous: 42/43 gnom vo zueri
Fri Apr 23 09:22:50 EDT 1999
optimist: Ricardo: you raising good point. IMHO this expensive price for brz new issue doesnt set too good precedent. more over - brz bradys got a hit after pricing. I dont hear exclamations that the issue is oversubscribed. EI is 0.75 and IDU 0.5 weaker from the prices where they were fixed for exchange. Like I predicted last week C's failed to get through important level of 71. Meanwhile US stock got hotter. I may be wrong but guess C's may go to 64 level even on pure profit taking. As to Russia - isnt obsession by it justified? What Wally and oothers think - isnt it time to sell some euros, or switch into prin/ian?
Fri Apr 23 09:30:13 EDT 1999
Savonarola: To optimist: there is no soverign credit in the world that is current and still trading a 25 hundred over or more like the Russian Euros. Forget Prins/Ians, it will be some time before they show signs of life. Meanwhile you have a firm commitment from Russia that they will continue servicing the euros...if you choose to believe and are right you will double your money from here before year end....good luck!!!
Fri Apr 23 09:59:30 EDT 1999
optimist: Savonarola: May I express humble opinion re rus.feds. Yes, we are in a different world - no return to 3500 over. but the only thing which keeps euros highly afloat now is shorts. Making life ugly for those mentioned by you. And thats good chance for those who are long. But I think the questilon of euro restructuring is still alive. PClub denies forgiveness. If they do - Lclub will look silly accepting forgiveness. What next - one may only guess. Euros are ipso facto senior debt now. Its reflected in spreads all across the board. But things change rapidly . Thats why I think Lclub debt now - reasonable alternative to euros. On may2 ians coupon has to be redeem. So I m goin to load some paper with value 2-3 may (that is coupon free)
Fri Apr 23 10:20:29 EDT 1999
optimist: http://www.moneynet.com/content/MONEYNET/CategoryNews/NewsStory.asp?Cat=INTL&SubCat=INTEMERG&ID=SF-04/23-AnN19210368@NEWS-P2&Index=6&HeadlineURL=../CategoryNews/CategoryNews.asp&DISABLE_FORM=&NAVSVC=News\Category oops, what a news! Now think - 2 bln into better credits. But even if 100 mln of these funds are in russia it makes for 300 mln par purchase in bonds. This amnt is enough to lift mkt 3-4 points may be more, with current level of liquidity. But what is more important, the credits where pimco was investing are not really great deal up. I would attribute it to selling into strength.
Fri Apr 23 10:43:43 EDT 1999
PILLX: http://quote.bloomberg.com/pgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&T=markets_topfin_sum99.ht&s=165d58ece38dec0ac5195d786881ea9e
Fri Apr 23 11:14:53 EDT 1999
anonymous: There's been no real bad overnight news in emerging markets to affect prices. The main issue is Brazil and the final amount and price of its bond
Fri Apr 23 11:18:03 EDT 1999
anonymous: There's been no real bad overnight news in emerging markets to affect prices. The main issue is Brazil and the final amount and price of its bond
Fri Apr 23 12:16:18 EDT 1999
anonymous: I am a Finance student in Brazil. I am interested in knowing what was the investor reaction to the new global Brazilain bond issued yesterday. Why an investor will exchange the IDU bonds for a repurchase price that is the equivalent of minus ten basis points to the yield of the new bond. Thanks for any comments. Joao
Fri Apr 23 12:52:17 EDT 1999
anonymous: How is the new Global trading?
Fri Apr 23 13:02:17 EDT 1999
Daniel: <<the only one able to crack this code is daniel@bradynet>> No I'm just as stumped as the rest of you. I wish I knew how to make such a character on my keyboard! It's like a wax-seal, I suppose. By the way, what do you folks think about the idea of requiring registered handles for all posts, like we're doing for the new FORUM at http://www.bradynet.com/bbs/ ? I am hoping it will eliminate the unecessary use of "anonymouses" and discourage people who just come here to disrupt the discussion.
Fri Apr 23 13:37:11 EDT 1999
anonymous: Daniel, don't make it an insiders club. we have to take the good with bad with anons. imagine a market without volatility is like BradyNet with ANONs. ANON
Fri Apr 23 14:00:14 EDT 1999
Omar: I agree with the idea of requiring everybody to have ONE name (real or ficticious, it doesn't matter) so we know who is talking and ignore those who come just to disrupt.
Fri Apr 23 14:43:50 EDT 1999
anonymous: having names is a good idea. we would avoid all insults, foul language and so on. we would however loose a lot of good input from anons who do not dare to register due to various reasons. gnom vo zueri
Fri Apr 23 15:00:39 EDT 1999
Omar: Daniel, maybe you can post the "name" without showing the handle to preserve privacy, I agree with you gnom, many anon postings are quite valuable and the more diversified the opinions the better for all of us.
Fri Apr 23 16:03:08 EDT 1999
anonymous: Omar this would be a very difficult task for daniel. gnom vo zueri
Fri Apr 23 16:15:23 EDT 1999
JPC: The market is undergoing a pretty significant adjustment due to the Brazilian supply, with plenty of fancy arbritrage plays betweent the Brady and global curve. This could take up to two weeks (remember that the Arg09, $1.0bn issue took about one week to absorb). But it's not time to short yet, although desks reckon that we may be in for a good round of profit taking with the supply effect as a good pretext
Fri Apr 23 16:31:26 EDT 1999
anonymous: Oil prices are going through the roof !, should be very positive for LatAm, Russia, Indonesia and other exporters. Any opinions on their effect on IMF/Pclub bargaining positions ?.
Fri Apr 23 16:32:46 EDT 1999
anonymous: http://www.anonymous.com/censor/daniel/don't/do/it!
Fri Apr 23 16:47:31 EDT 1999
anonymous: Debtor nations must honor their debts and cooperate with their creditors, said Stanley Fischer, first deputy managing director of the International Monetary Fund. "Contracts must, wherever possible, be honored, for that is the only basis on which the private capital markets can operate," Is anybody smelling a hiden message to the russians.....
Fri Apr 23 16:50:44 EDT 1999
anonymous: Yeah. Fisher saying don't default to the IMF. Package will be less than total payments to the IMF. That is, even with the package, net transfers from the IMF to Russia will be negative and cause a decline in reserves. Don't delude yourself.
Fri Apr 23 17:10:38 EDT 1999
Daniel: <<Daniel, maybe you can post the "name" without showing the handle to preserve privacy...>> You have it backwards. We show the "handle" which can be anything (you can even call yourself 'Anonymous' if you want) but we never show your real name. If you want to show your real name, you can do that yourself in your profile page, but that decision is completely up to you to make.
Fri Apr 23 17:16:08 EDT 1999
anonymous: Daniel, why are you even worried about this. i think is constrains the free flow of info. sometimes the debates are entertaining. i really think it will hurt you if you do it. i have even heard people talk about some of these debates on BradyNet in the market. in fact, i think it is great that you have this kind of diversity. why would you want to stymie that?
Fri Apr 23 17:16:13 EDT 1999
Savonarola: Anon, don't be so negative, if Russia manages to get from the IMF/WB an amount close to what is due this year, that will mean an almost $5 billion problem less. They have to start somewhere. From there they can start addressing Paris Club and London Club and Minfins. In the meantime they continue servicing the Euros. Obviously they will be net payers this year. The issue is to minimize that amount. Do not fall under the pesimistic trap of the so called "experts". They only reflect the trading positions of the big boys, who as you know are always shorting when the market goes up and refuse to acknowledge that the old range has been broken. Enjoy the rally! What you've seen this last two weeks is only an apetizer. They real rally has yet to come...
Fri Apr 23 17:17:12 EDT 1999
anonymous: the Spanky debates even made the press and got BradyNet free publicity.
Fri Apr 23 17:17:34 EDT 1999
Cheetah: If you bot Russia 18 at 45% cyld (price 25), then at 31% cyld (avg price around 35), whats the difference to buy it at 25% or 20% cyld (price around 55) ?????? I find the SAME interest prevails at 55 price than the 25 price >>>> WILL KEEP ON BUYING and puting in the CCC account.....
Fri Apr 23 17:20:42 EDT 1999
Cheetah: Russia is just a large Venezuela, OIL is UP, Bonds and Equity will go UP !!! Shorts will be squeeezed. Spanky please predict a 10 handle on Russian bonds.....
Fri Apr 23 17:23:04 EDT 1999
anonymous: 04-23-99 Savonarola: (194.112.54.86) Anon, don't be so<< SV: you are thinking too much. Russia will not and can not pay the $5 Bn you are talking about so the deal is somewhat academic. The fact is, the IMF will probably back load the disbursement and have kind of a shadow program in the first few months. Fisher has already stated Russia will have to show some kind of action before funds are disbursed. As a result, reserves will continue to fall as payments are made in the next few months. The key is policy changes and we just don't see it in this program. How do you think the market will react to this after getting long here? Maybe a few points more of upside, then I think we see a big correction. That is what makes a market. Right, SV? Cheers.
Fri Apr 23 17:24:36 EDT 1999
anonymous: Cheat: o.k. 10 handle on IANs..
Fri Apr 23 17:26:52 EDT 1999
anonymous: Cheetah: let me guess: you told us to buy Russia at the bottom also?
Fri Apr 23 17:37:03 EDT 1999
Savonarola: Anon, please do not contradict yourself in every sentence you write. 1) If Russia can not pay IMF without IMF money, then either the IMF lends or the'll see no money. The IMF WILL lend and hope to extract a reasonable program from Russia. 2) You say "the fact is" and then say" probably"..so is that a fact or is it probably???? You seem very confused. 3) You say "the key is policy changes and We just do not see it here"...Anon, who are you talking for?? are you one of the shorters?? is it painfull?? What do you mean "don't see it here"...Have you gone to Moscow..do you know the public numbers of Russia or just repeting what the experts say???? Body...you still have time, get on board....
Fri Apr 23 18:24:52 EDT 1999
anonymous: 04-23-99 Savonarola: (194.112.54.86) Anon, please do not contradict yourself in every sentence you write. 1) If Russia can not pay<< I suggest you Stanley Fisher's speech today. We will talk in a couple of months and see where the market is. Don't take it personal if someone disagees. The market will decide who is right and wrong. Russia is not stablizing, so don't let the price action delude you into thinking it is.
Fri Apr 23 18:33:03 EDT 1999
anonymous: http://www.ego.com/picks/winners/short/cheetah/spanky/russia/price/ian/10
Fri Apr 23 18:47:10 EDT 1999
Cheetah: My cowardly friend "sinnombre", at least I post SPECIFIC recommendations - and stick by them. I don't have to tell you if I bot Russia 18 in the 20's. Just check my postings. Why does Venezuela being up more than 50% in USD in two weeks cause you so much pain ? Some stocks are going UP 50% more from todays close in next 2 months (i.e. SIVENSA 25Bs.) Also recommend OFF THE RUN bonds, as per yesterdays posting: FARGO, TRANSTEL, PESQUERA AUSTRAL, INNOVA, ARISCO...
Fri Apr 23 18:47:52 EDT 1999
¤ wally ¤: it seems that i did not miss too much except the nice surprise of the rusfed euros. gentlemen, when will we all (that includes me too!) refrain from BS (except when funny) and personal attacks? ¤brady-daniel¤: there must be a way for you break my "seal"!
Fri Apr 23 18:50:03 EDT 1999
anonymous: even Spankygirl gave special detailed advice...., even on Russian's at Au Bar...
Fri Apr 23 18:52:03 EDT 1999
anonymous: keep it free ! openmarket ! unregulated !
Fri Apr 23 18:52:35 EDT 1999
¤ wally ¤: cheetah: your recommendations were right 'on the money" most of the time you do not have to prove it to some 'sinnombre'. suggestion: what do you all think of just ignoring 'sinnombres' if they don't contribute in a constructive manner?
Fri Apr 23 18:54:19 EDT 1999
anonymous: yea, i want to remain anonymous for heaven's sake. queen of shebah
Fri Apr 23 18:57:51 EDT 1999
Cheetah: I agree Wally - that was to be my last posting to my friend anonymous - will miss him/her just as I do Spankygirl
Fri Apr 23 18:58:10 EDT 1999
¤ wally ¤: pillx: what happened? where are you? missed you.
Fri Apr 23 18:58:46 EDT 1999
anonymous: http://www.cheetah-spin.com--->04-23-99 Cheetah: (206.49.192.228) If you bot Russia 18 at 45% cyld (price 25), then at 31% cyld (avg price around 35), whats the difference to buy it at 25% or 20% cyld (price around 55) ?????? I find the SAME interest prevails at 55 price than the 25 price >>>> WILL KEEP ON BUYING and puting in the CCC account..... <<BLAH, BLAH, BLAH..
Fri Apr 23 19:01:38 EDT 1999
anonymous: mf3 yield 95,243,030,053.890 %. pillx had a stroke when he saw minfin yield. queen of shebah
Fri Apr 23 19:07:49 EDT 1999
¤ wally ¤: queen: cannot resist this YTM. going to buy minfin3 as soon as market opens. pillx could not have left. we have an appointment.
Fri Apr 23 19:12:11 EDT 1999
anonymous: MISSING LINK FOUND !!! "Discoverers marveled in Venezuela observing a live specimen exactly like those found in Ethiopia, initial analysis confirms unstable nature and lack of focus other than destructive capabilities..." Cuban News Agency
Fri Apr 23 19:28:44 EDT 1999
anonymous: REUTERS--Russian President Boris Yeltsin has said Moscow does not intend to be drawn into the conflict, but analysts said a NATO ban on the delivery of oil products to Yugoslavia could bring relations between Russia and the Western alliance to the brink. "Russia has to decide if it wants Milosevic to carry on fighting. That's the $64,000 question," an oil analyst in London said. "NATO would be extremely foolish to enforce a ban as it would lead to direct confrontation with Russian civilian vessels."
Fri Apr 23 19:54:22 EDT 1999
anonymous: http://www.grantspub.com/GIRO/index.html Time for the contrarians to buy some GOLD. Yes, Wally, GOLD!
Fri Apr 23 19:58:38 EDT 1999
clota: Isn´t it time for PRINS and IANS to move into a 10 handle..? Simple artithmetic: 50% forgiveness, then some kind of bond worth 40: 50%x40%=20, discounted at 40% for 1 year = 14..what do you think..? does this make sense..?
Fri Apr 23 20:08:41 EDT 1999
¤ wally ¤: <Wally, GOLD!> i too like gold but only when my wife wears it around her neck or her wrists. i also like gold plated contact pins on removable harddisks.
Fri Apr 23 20:08:43 EDT 1999
anonymous: Clota: good point, but yet. Russia could not service even a 50% reduction in payments. maybe get a spec bounce, but a long while before you get any cash on Russia prins or ians.
Fri Apr 23 20:11:18 EDT 1999
anonymous: Russia is the graveyard of many P.M.s, traders, and analysts. And hurting them again this year on the rebound. As Churchill said: An enigma, in a riddle, surrounded by a mystery (or something like it, Wally help out here)
Fri Apr 23 20:15:56 EDT 1999
¤ wally ¤: clota: looking at today's closing prices i made a mental note to check on the potential of PRINs and IANs (that was before your posting). it takes a lot of research or a gambler's mood to buy now. your arithmetic makes sense but there are as of now too many unkown factors to work out a logical equation.
Fri Apr 23 20:18:03 EDT 1999
¤ wally ¤: <Wally help out> who do you think i am? superman? au contraire!
Fri Apr 23 20:18:15 EDT 1999
anonymous: Wally, what is with the new age symbol on your nombre?
Fri Apr 23 20:19:15 EDT 1999
anonymous: http://www.superwally.com
Fri Apr 23 20:22:00 EDT 1999
¤ wally ¤: <Russia could not service even..> that is undoubtedly a fact.
Fri Apr 23 20:24:07 EDT 1999
¤ wally ¤: <new age symbol> just trying to have a unique handle (till somebody cracks it).
Fri Apr 23 20:26:31 EDT 1999
anonymous: wally, you like superwally website?
Fri Apr 23 20:36:32 EDT 1999
¤ wally ¤: <gold> server did not take my last comment. repeat: i like gold very much but only when my wife wears it (22-24k) around her neck or her wrists.
Fri Apr 23 20:39:42 EDT 1999
¤ wally ¤: i prefer http://www.sinnombre.mafi-mokh.com/mashnoun.html
Fri Apr 23 20:42:55 EDT 1999
anonymous: Wally, phonetic it should be <majnun>.
Fri Apr 23 20:44:22 EDT 1999
¤ wally ¤: that is correct. but i speak with hejazi accent, hence 'mashnoun'
Fri Apr 23 20:46:01 EDT 1999
anonymous: jo das ischt jo wieder äusserscht interessant. can't you discuss bonds??? gnom vo zueri
Fri Apr 23 20:48:47 EDT 1999
anonymous: clota, discount is more like 75% and you will get a zero coupon 30 years gauranteed by UST zero's... discount this, tell me what you get... maybe LESS than current market values. Gaby (la linda)
Fri Apr 23 20:50:44 EDT 1999
anonymous: The Pentagon said on Friday it would deploy more than 2,000 extra troops and more equipment to augment the Apache strike helicopters joining the NATO force arrayed against Yugoslavia. This is important! gnom vo zueri
Fri Apr 23 20:52:29 EDT 1999
anonymous: only important news was finding current version of missing link in caracas
Fri Apr 23 20:52:44 EDT 1999
anonymous: tell me what you get.. please anon YOU tell us.
Fri Apr 23 20:55:02 EDT 1999
¤ wally ¤: no! gnom's posting is very important. rumour has that monica lewinski is going too (to support our troops).
Fri Apr 23 20:57:27 EDT 1999
anonymous: I get more or less 7.5 value for restructured ians minfins or prins, but rumor is discounts may be higher than 75%, this explains why they don't move in price. Gaby (la linda)
Fri Apr 23 21:01:44 EDT 1999
anonymous: rumors that Russia's new loan program with IMF will be up to 10 billion $
Fri Apr 23 21:03:15 EDT 1999
anonymous: it's not really a rumor, got it last night after having a lewinsky with an IMF analyst...
Fri Apr 23 21:04:06 EDT 1999
¤ wally ¤: gaby: are you suggesting we shall see RUSSIAN BRADIES? perhaps even with a rolling interest guarantee? that'll be the day!
Fri Apr 23 21:08:37 EDT 1999
¤ wally ¤: ladies and gentlemen. now we are moving. <having a lewinsky> is worth a pulitzer prize!
Fri Apr 23 21:09:52 EDT 1999
anonymous: please state your name, rank and serial number. your are considered for much more. Alfred Nobel.
Fri Apr 23 21:12:21 EDT 1999
¤ wally ¤: gaby: i don't believe in a discount of more than 75%. i would rather put it at 50% or less, redemption faaaaaar stretched of course.
Fri Apr 23 21:17:04 EDT 1999
anonymous: yea, what about restructuring soviet debt with a bond, nominal yield 1%, reoffer price 1, maturity 2399? queen of shebah
Fri Apr 23 21:18:22 EDT 1999
¤ wally ¤: impossible to calculate YTM without pillx.
Fri Apr 23 21:50:02 EDT 1999
anonymous: Yeah, I heard the 10 Bn rumor too. Russia will get 10 bn to pay back the 21 bn it owes the FUND. That leaves 'em 10 bn short. go figure and go sell.
Sat Apr 24 00:00:03 EDT 1999
anonymous: your figures are wrong man. ain't got no idea of nothin'. queen of shebah
Sat Apr 24 00:01:28 EDT 1999
PILLX: OK WALLY I'm back , in TelAviv for the weekend ,don't forget I'm 1/3 in minfin 1/3 in RF euros 1/3 in Fleming Russia securities ,no stroke ,only big migrene (chivas),I'v meet something beautiful........... A Russian beauty,and beleave me she don't understand no minfin no euros no debt ,she only enjoy live..... I love this message board!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Sat Apr 24 00:35:29 EDT 1999
PILLX: 99 But without a functioning financial system, property rights and a more rational tax regime-to name but three much-needed reforms-even Russia's best managers and companies face crippling disadvantages.That seems unlikely to change before next year's presidential elections. Although Mr Primakov's government is ready to make cosmetic changes-announcing faster bank restructuring for example, or threatening to jail corrupt officials-there is no sign so far of the political will to carry them through. Even a new team at the top would find it hard to defeat the corrupt vested interests that plague the country. Russia in 2000 will be one of a miserable clutch of countries where things look less hopeful than they did 100 years ago.
Sat Apr 24 00:35:40 EDT 1999
PILLX: 88 . Mr Taylor estimates that the "virtual" (ie, cashless, politicised and corrupt) part of Russia's economy has risen from half of the total before last August to around 70% now. The higher oil price helps too-a $5 rise brings in, at least in theory, an extra $900m a month (although how much of that reaches Russia is another question).There are a few, tiny, hopeful signs. Some industries, such as oil, show the glimmerings of restructuring and consolidation, though little has happened on the ground. Companies with strong balance-sheets are at least surviving; weaker ones are going under. Russian exports such as steel have become more competitive (although protectionism, masquerading as anti-dumping actions, and global overcapacity are blunting the effect).
Sat Apr 24 00:35:49 EDT 1999
PILLX: 77 The cavalier treatment of debtors reflects wider Russian government thinking about both economics and the rest of the world. Although Mr Primakov pays lip-service, for example, to the need to attract foreign direct investors, his government has in practice done nothing to help them (treating existing investors fairly, for example, might be a good start). "There has been no tax reform, no bankruptcy law, no banking reform, no clearing out of corruption, no fundamental change in anything the Russian government does," notes Martin Taylor, a Russian expert at Baring Asset Management.Russia has managed to survive largely because-even in the most optimistic era before the crash-so much of its economy was immune to market forces anyway
Sat Apr 24 00:35:56 EDT 1999
PILLX: 66 MinFin holders can commiserate with owners of GKOs-domestic rouble debt, once worth $40 billion, on which the government defaulted in August. These bondholders are now contemplating a restructuring deal worth-at best-one solitary cent in the dollar.The repudiation of the MinFins is also bad news for western banks and governments who hold Soviet-era debt. Russia has fallen behind on almost all payments since August, and it now breezily assumes that creditors will eventually agree to another restructuring. On the basis of past experience, Russia is probably right.Swamp lifeIf the objective were to gain a breathing-space for economic recovery, all this might be regrettable but acceptable. But whereas other troubled economies have used their financial crises as a springboard for greater openness and faster reform, Russia has turned inward and downward.
Sat Apr 24 00:36:04 EDT 1999
PILLX: 55 That would allow other lenders to plug the remaining holes in government finances.Russia's plan is to seek restructuring-or, in some cases, forgiveness-of the $100 billion-worth of debt that it inherited from the Soviet Union, while honouring the $50 billion or so it has borrowed abroad since then. Distinguishing the two can be hard-as in the case of Russia's latest default, announced on April 20th, on a tranche of "MinFins". These bonds were offered by the Russian government as compensation for those unwise enough to have held hard-currency deposits in Soviet banks. Although it issued them, Russia has decided that these bonds are someone else's problem.
Sat Apr 24 00:36:11 EDT 1999
PILLX: 44 The foreign-exchange market, once open and liquid, gains a new restriction every second week. This has propped up the rouble, for now, but it has failed to stop capital flight, which is still running at $2 billion a month.One effect of the restrictions has been the creation of a dual exchange rate, breaking promises to the IMF about convertibility. No squeak of protest has been heard from the Fund, and only polite and general remarks about Russia's other economic sins. The IMF, still wrangling with Russia, faces agonising contortions. It is trying to preserve its credibility as a global financial policeman, even while seeming to act, reluctantly, as a foreign-policy slush fund for those who deem Russia too big and too nuclear to be faced with the consequences of its actions. Russia is demanding $8 billion in the latest round of talks, but will settle for $4.6 billion-enough for it to meet its debt payments to the IMF.
Sat Apr 24 00:36:19 EDT 1999
PILLX: 33 Real wages and foreign trade have plunged. Northern parts of the country had an exceptionally miserable winter; the electricity went off at times in the far east; food supplies in state-run institutions are dismally low (when a hungry soldier last month robbed a food shop in Vladimir, near Moscow, at gunpoint-stealing $5-worth of food-it hardly rated a mention in the press).The state's own procurement policies are barely more sophisticated. Bureaucracies, such as the customs and tax services, are ever more shameless in their attempts to squeeze money from those unlucky enough to fall into their clutches. State revenues and spending alike are being siphoned off by corrupt bureaucrats.
Sat Apr 24 00:36:26 EDT 1999
PILLX: 22 The IMF and the World Bank are already lining up new loans.But three cheers-or even one or two-for Yevgeny Primakov, the prime minister, and his team look decidedly premature. True, to the surprise and in some cases disappointment of outsiders, Russia's economy has not completely imploded, sunk, evaporated or disintegrated. There has been no mass starvation. Advised by its supporters to print lots of money, bail out industry, ban the dollar and control prices, the government did nothing. And inaction was-relatively speaking-commendable. Meanwhile the devaluation of the rouble (now worth less than a quarter of its value against the dollar last August), and a higher oil price, have helped some parts of the economy to recover somewhat.But it is still in dire straits.
Sat Apr 24 00:36:34 EDT 1999
PILLX: 11 Another IMF bailout may avoid disaster. But Russia's stagnation will continue WHILE government ministers gloat, pessimists see only doom and gloom. Who is right about Russia? Following last August's financial crash, and the appointment of a do-nothing, left-leaning government, it seemed that things could only get worse, and quickly. Now the government is preening itself over the prowess it has shown. "Many people predicted total collapse of the rouble, that the country would experience hunger, power-supply problems, hyperinflation," said Andrei Shapozaliants, the economic minister, last week. Instead, as he said, inflation is falling and industrial production is rising (see chart).
Sat Apr 24 01:51:00 EDT 1999
PILLX: Russia can play a genuine role in resolving the crisis in Kosovo,,,,even if Russia still had the potential to be part of the problem in Kosovo rather than part of the solution.
Sat Apr 24 02:16:33 EDT 1999
PILLX: R.Rubin,The role of the private sector in crises,must evolve on a "case-by-case basis".Sometimes there should bea restructuring or refinancing of a debtor-country's obligations; sometimes it might "not be possible to avoid a temporary interruption in some debt payments".But Mr Rubin gave warning against a "one-size-fits-all approach". That was a clear salvo at European governments,which are keen to create formal systems to "bail in" private investors.On exchange rates he was even more forthright, highlighting the risks of unsustainable pegged currencies. "As a matter of policy, we believe that the international community should not provide large-scale official finance to countries intervening heavily to defend an exchange-rate peg." Mr Rubin added qualifications, but his message was plain: no more Brazil-or Russia -style bail-outs. And the sooner rich countries revise sovereign bond contracts to make restructuring easier, the more likely it is that emerging economies will follow suit. If they want to keep the reform momentum going, the architects should be doing some modest redesign at home.
Sat Apr 24 02:18:41 EDT 1999
PILLX: R.Rubin,The role of the private sector in crises,must evolve on a "case-by-case basis".Sometimes there should be a restructuring or refinancing of a debtor-country's obligations; sometimes it might "not be possible to avoid a temporary interruption in some debt payments".But Mr Rubin gave warning against a "one-size-fits-all approach". That was a clear salvo at European governments,which are keen to create formal systems to "bail in" private investors.The sooner rich countries revise sovereign bond contracts to make restructuring easier, the more likely it is that emerging economies will follow suit. If they want to keep the reform momentum going, the architects should be doing some modest redesign at home.
Sat Apr 24 02:42:18 EDT 1999
anonymous: I completely support bombing Serbian media units. We get, after all, all the news, in a very objective way, from cnn.
Sat Apr 24 07:28:11 EDT 1999
anonymous: yea, let's bomb all tv units worldwide. too many anyway. the one and only cnn is enough. queen of shebah
Sat Apr 24 07:51:52 EDT 1999
¤ wally ¤: queen: i support your motion based on one condition, that is YOU will educate all CNN staff to pronounce the word 'rambouillet' correctly. good luck.
Sat Apr 24 08:03:48 EDT 1999
¤ wally ¤: pillx: russia report. interesting to read. but where are your comments? i also have been told that a real connoisseur thinks chivas is just expensive but does not offer real quality. i am no judge, don't drink whisky.
Sat Apr 24 09:55:01 EDT 1999
PILLX: WALLY I would say ,no comment but ,I'm very pessimistic about Russia,I know by experience that it is the best time to invest in an emerging country, when all the press is very negative and see no hope in the future of this country, I always made big $$$ in these situations ,in 1990 after junk bond collapsed,after 1995 peso crisis first with corporate bonds,then with brady bonds,but Russia surprised me with their maffia style restructuring ,still I have hope for the next 2/3 years for 40000 reasons ,each reason represent one nuclear head that still exist, till they exist Russia will remain in a situation of super-power that can make any kind of chantage to the rich country that realy don't want to play nuclair games,I like the name chivas ,it's only the W that I drink when I go out at home I have some more sofisticated Whisky,
Sat Apr 24 10:06:25 EDT 1999
¤ wally ¤: pillx: do you have any opinion on the 'story' that russia will treat minfin tranches differently? there is no real market reaction.
Sat Apr 24 10:26:15 EDT 1999
PILLX: There is a reaction minfin4/minfin7 diff. -5 points, before +3 points ( if you take in acc. bid and ask price ) I already switched my minfin4 to minfin7 with -3 that represent the cp. that I hope they will pay on minfin 6 and 7 ,still hold some minfin4 for the fun
Sat Apr 24 10:46:28 EDT 1999
¤ wally ¤: pillx: the move of minfins6+7 in percentage terms is of course huge but not unusual. we had this moves in euros too.
Sat Apr 24 10:56:45 EDT 1999
PILLX: Wally there is 100% diff between minfin7/4 price!!!!!!!!!
Sat Apr 24 11:38:18 EDT 1999
PILLX: REUTERS MOSCOW -- Russia aims to publish its plan for payment of MinFin bonds, which a senior official has said Russia cannot pay, before the May 14 due day, Finance Minister Mikhail Zadornov said Friday. He said the government would tell MinFin investors about Finance Ministry plans concerning the payments after completion of talks with the International Monetary Fund, the London Club of commercial lenders and the Paris Club of country-creditors. The government is scheduled to pay $1.6 billion on dollar-denominated MinFins on May 14.
Sat Apr 24 11:49:34 EDT 1999
PILLX: MinFin Bonds OTC Quotes (Bid/Offer) as of April 23, 1999 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Tranche 3 4 5 6 7 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- IFC Moscow * 5.75 - 10.00 8.25 Partners 10.00 - 11.00 9.00 Alba-Aliance * - - - - - - - - GAZPROMBANK * 6.00 5.00 10.00 8.50 8.00 7.50 11.00 14.00 VNESHECONOMBANK * 6.00 5.00 10.00 8.25 7.94 6.38 10.75 14.00 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- * - stop traiding period.
Sat Apr 24 11:54:00 EDT 1999
PILLX: Key Indicators of Russian Eurobonds and Foreign Debt Market Date: April 23, 1999 as of April 22, 1999 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Issuer Maturity Coupon Currency Average Current YTM Change, Spread Accrued % Price, % Yield, % % b.p. b.p. Interest, % ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Russia 11-27-01 9 1/4 USD 51.01 18.13 42.08 -111 3702 3.73 Russia 06-10-03 11 3/4 USD 44.13 26.62 40.79 -207 3561 4.31 Russia 07-24-05 8 3/4 USD 37.11 23.58 33.20 -147 2786 2.14 Russia 06-26-07 10 USD 38.57 25.93 31.04 -88 2568 3.22 Russia 07-24-18 11 USD 38.36 28.68 28.87 -99 2304 2.69 Russia 06-24-28 12 3/4 USD 41.72 30.56 30.50 -173 2517 4.18 Russia 03-25-04 9 DEM 50.48 17.83 29.13 -48 2592 0.68 Russia 03-31-05 9 3/8 DEM 48.63 19.28 28.12 -53 2467 0.57 Russia 04-30-03 9 ITL 43.88 20.51 38.75 105 -- 8.80 Moscow 05-31-00 9 1/2 USD 52.40 18.13 84.08 0 7915 3.83 St.Pete's 06-18-02 9 1/2 USD 35.02 27.13 55.16 5516 5003 3.27 Nizhn Novg 10-03-02 8 3/4 USD n.p. Moscow 04-09-01 9 1/8 DEM 58.63 15.57 45.27 54 4255 9.45 Moscow 05-18-01 9 7/8 ITL 42.50 23.24 72.69 -284 -- 8.47 SBS AGRO FIN 05-31-00 10 1/4 USD n.p. ALFA-RUSSIA FIN 06-18-02 10 3/8 USD n.p. UNEXIM INTL FIN 10-03-02 9 7/8 USD n.p. ROS KREDIT 09-29-00 10 1/4 USD n.p. MOSENERGO 10-09-02 8 3/8 USD n.p. TATNEFT 10-29-02 10 USD n.p. IRKUTSKENERGO 04-20-01 12 1/2 DEM n.p. MGTS 03-19-01 12 1/2 USD n.p. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- as of April 23, 1999 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Issuer Maturity Coupon Currency Price, % Change, Current Accrued % Bid Offer Average p.p. Yield, % Interest, % ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IAN 12-02-12 5.96875 USD 5.625 6.500 6.063 -0.313 98.45 2.338 PRIN 12-02-17 5.96875 USD 6.250 6.750 6.500 0.063 91.83 2.338
Sat Apr 24 11:56:03 EDT 1999
PILLX: Key Indicators of Russian Eurobonds and Foreign Debt Market Date: April 23, 1999 as of April 22, 1999 Issuer Maturity Coupon Currency Average Current YTM Change, Spread Accrued % Price, % Yield, % % b.p. b.p. Interest, % Russia 11-27-01 9 1/4 USD 51.01 18.13 42.08 -111 3702 3.73 Russia 06-10-03 11 3/4 USD 44.13 26.62 40.79 -207 3561 4.31 Russia 07-24-05 8 3/4 USD 37.11 23.58 33.20 -147 2786 2.14 Russia 06-26-07 10 USD 38.57 25.93 31.04 -88 2568 3.22 Russia 07-24-18 11 USD 38.36 28.68 28.87 -99 2304 2.69 Russia 06-24-28 12 3/4 USD 41.72 30.56 30.50 -173 2517 4.18 Russia 03-25-04 9 DEM 50.48 17.83 29.13 -48 2592 0.68 Russia 03-31-05 9 3/8 DEM 48.63 19.28 28.12 -53 2467 0.57 Russia 04-30-03 9 ITL 43.88 20.51 38.75 105 -- 8.80 Moscow 05-31-00 9 1/2 USD 52.40 18.13 84.08 0 7915 3.83 St.Pete's 06-18-02 9 1/2 USD 35.02 27.13 55.16 5516 5003 3.27 Nizhn Novg 10-03-02 8 3/4 USD n.p. Moscow 04-09-01 9 1/8 DEM 58.63 15.57 45.27 54 4255 9.45 Moscow 05-18-01 9 7/8 ITL 42.50 23.24 72.69 -284 -- 8.47 SBS AGRO FIN 05-31-00 10 1/4 USD n.p. ALFA-RUSSIA FIN 06-18-02 10 3/8 USD n.p. UNEXIM INTL FIN 10-03-02 9 7/8 USD n.p. ROS KREDIT 09-29-00 10 1/4 USD n.p. MOSENERGO 10-09-02 8 3/8 USD n.p. TATNEFT 10-29-02 10 USD n.p. IRKUTSKENERGO 04-20-01 12 1/2 DEM n.p. MGTS 03-19-01 12 1/2 USD n.p.
Sat Apr 24 12:52:11 EDT 1999
anonymous: "I know what we are paying. The entire deployment in Macedonia is purely European. So I would advise anyone against starting a debate on costs," he said. The European Union is already paying the lion's share of the cost of reconstruction in Bosnia and is discussing a long-term political and economic stabilization program for Southeastern Europe, under German leadership, in which EU funds would be dominant. Others said Washington should make the allies share the bill, as it did in the Gulf War, when countries such as Saudi Arabia and Kuwait paid huge sums for the liberation of Kuwait. THOSE WHO STARTED THE WAR SHOULD PAY! REDUCE CLINTONS AND ALBRIGHTS SALARY! Outside of government in Washington, the clamor for greater European burden-sharing is on the rise. "The free ride is over" WHO TOLD YOU TO RIDE? TAKE A HIKE!
Sat Apr 24 12:53:20 EDT 1999
anonymous: Hell, no. We won't pay. German Defense Minister Rudolf Scharping delivered a blunt rebuttal to U.S. lawmakers' demands that wealthy European allies be made to contribute more toward the cost of the war against Yugoslavia over Kosovo. FIRST THING FROM SCHARPING THAT MAKES SENSE! Germany, the biggest and wealthiest European ally, paid billions of dollars toward the cost of the 1991 Gulf War in which German armed forces did not participate. AND THE U.S.A. MADE A BIG PROFIT ESTIMATED 22-25 BILLION DOLLARS.
Sat Apr 24 12:58:55 EDT 1999
¤ wally ¤: i can hardly believe that a joker like scharping is developing such a profile. is it perhaps because 'red oskar' is out in the cold that rudolf has grown up? nice to know that not all of my taxes are spent on tornado raids.
Sat Apr 24 13:00:56 EDT 1999
¤ wally ¤: i forgot something important.
Sat Apr 24 13:08:23 EDT 1999
anonymous: what did you forget?
Sat Apr 24 13:09:58 EDT 1999
¤ wally ¤: click on my e.mail adress.
Sat Apr 24 13:11:16 EDT 1999
anonymous: Peace campaigners demonstrated in 40 cities across Germany on Saturday against NATO air strikes on Yugoslavia, now into their second month. Organisers said tens of thousands of people turned out to protest against the strikes and the new military doctrine to be agreed by the 19 NATO member states at the alliance's 50th anniversary summit in Washington. "The NATO bombing must end. And there must be an end to the persecution and expulsion of people in Kosovo".
Sat Apr 24 13:12:38 EDT 1999
anonymous: Europeans are you cowards wining again?
Sat Apr 24 13:14:00 EDT 1999
¤ wally ¤: get a dictionary. it is whining not wining.
Sat Apr 24 13:29:54 EDT 1999
anonymous: What is ironic is that, in some way, we have convinced ourselves that we bomb for humanitarian reasons.
Sat Apr 24 13:35:18 EDT 1999
Cheetah: All this reasoning on Russia, and it just comes down to Russia being a large Venezuela, OIL & basic matrials drives everything, so just BUY BUY BUY as long as oil and commodities continue to strenghen. Simply a large Veni, same stupid problems in both countries and the women.....
Sat Apr 24 13:55:04 EDT 1999
anonymous: Only one thing to watch in Russia: Not the IMF deal, not World Bank, not Oil Prices, it is their INTERNATIONAL RESERVE POSITION, period. That is how they will pay the Euros. If it doesn't start to improve, ADIOS, CIAO to any hope of payments. This IMF deal is unique in that it will be the only deal, that I can recall, that does not have an explicit objective of improving the country's reserve position through net new money. The IMF will take money out of Russia with the deal! Can you believe it, they act like they (the G7) are putting new money in.
Sat Apr 24 13:58:19 EDT 1999
anonymous: 04-24-99 Cheetah: (206.49.128.191) All this reasoning on Russia, and it j<<< That is what I thought before I bought GKO's. Russia not even close to Venezuela oil money machine. Wish the Russia MinFin had access to oil dollars, but oil exporters keeping money offshore, unlike PDVSA. Maybe Russia should renationalize the oil sector to become more like your Venezuela, Cheetah?
Sat Apr 24 16:28:53 EDT 1999
¤ wally ¤: <IMF will take money out of Russia> most probably i am suffering still from jetlag to understand this. please be kind enough and explain this statement. i also understand that nobody knows the details of the new IMF agreement. do you know more?
Sat Apr 24 16:36:23 EDT 1999
anonymous: Wally, The IMF deal -- unless a positive surprise -- will still result in a net transfer to the Fund by Russia. That is, Russia owes the IMF $4.8 bn in 1999 and the deal is worth $4 bn, Russia's reserves, ceteris paribas, fall by $800 mm. Now, I hear that most of the World Bank and other money will be backloaded. And also Fisher has stated that Russia must show some action before the Fund disburses. My sense is that reserves will continue to fall. Don't reserves putting pressure on the rubles and causing a correction in Euros. This deal is unlike any in history. In fact, it is a virtual deal for a virtual economy. But let us not forget, debt payments require hard currency not virutal reality. Wally, does this make sense?
Sat Apr 24 16:48:39 EDT 1999
¤ wally ¤: <we bomb for humanitarian reasons> 'ironic' is a very moderate depiction for the tragedy in the balkans which our great leaders have only aggravated. in hindsight it is of course easy to blame our politicians for their stupidity. i am sure they didn't know what kind of pandora box they opened when they started bombing. on the other hand they knew since croatia and bosnia what S.O.B. slobodan miloseviç is.
Sat Apr 24 16:54:41 EDT 1999
¤ wally ¤: <Wally, does this make sense?> i agree, makes sense (if) the facts turn out to be as you described them.
Sat Apr 24 16:57:33 EDT 1999
anonymous: WASHINGTON, April 24 (Reuters) - NATO leaders vowed on Saturday to choke vital oil supplies fueling Serb forces in Kosovo, and alliance missiles hammered two main Yugoslav cities. Risking possible confrontation with Russia -- Yugoslavia's main oil supplier -- NATO said it was drawing up plans to ``visit and search'' ships headed for Yugoslavia. At a 50th anniversary summit overshadowed by the crisis in Kosovo, NATO spokesman Jamie Shea said: ``Without oil the Yugoslav military machine will come to a halt, and very quickly.'' Stopping Russian tankers from delivering oil could antagonize Moscow at a time when NATO leaders want Russia to help mediate a settlement with Belgrade and contribute troops to a force to protect ethnic Albanians returning to Kosovo. Russian President Boris Yeltsin's envoy for Yugoslavia on Saturday dampened expectations of a mediated breakthrough. ``If I had a trump card I would have already used it, and I would have gone from there (Belgrade) to where I could play it,'' said Viktor Chernomyrdin, a former premier who met Milosevic on Thursday and offered to brief NATO on the talks.<<:>> TAKE YOUR PROFITS, THINGS HEATING UP AGAIN. BULLS EAT, BEARS EAT, PIGS GET SLAUGHTERED!!!
Sat Apr 24 16:58:38 EDT 1999
anonymous: WASHINGTON, April 24 (Reuters) - NATO leaders vowed on Saturday to choke vital oil supplies fueling Serb forces in Kosovo, and alliance missiles hammered two main Yugoslav cities. Risking possible confrontation with Russia -- Yugoslavia's main oil supplier -- NATO said it was drawing up plans to ``visit and search'' ships headed for Yugoslavia...Stopping Russian tankers from delivering oil could antagonize Moscow at a time when NATO leaders want Russia to help mediate a settlement with Belgrade and contribute troops to a force to protect ethnic Albanians returning to Kosovo. Russian President Boris Yeltsin's envoy for Yugoslavia on Saturday dampened expectations of a mediated breakthrough. ``If I had a trump card I would have already used it, and I would have gone from there (Belgrade) to where I could play it,'' said Viktor Chernomyrdin, a former premier who met Milosevic on Thursday and offered to brief NATO on the talks.<<:>> TAKE YOUR PROFITS, THINGS HEATING UP AGAIN. BULLS EAT, BEARS EAT, PIGS GET SLAUGHTERED!!!
Sat Apr 24 16:59:14 EDT 1999
anonymous: WASHINGTON, April 24 (Reuters) - NATO leaders vowed on Saturday to choke vital oil supplies fueling Serb forces in Kosovo, and alliance missiles hammered two main Yugoslav cities. Risking possible confrontation with Russia -- Yugoslavia's main oil supplier -- NATO said it was drawing up plans to ``visit and search'' ships headed for Yugoslavia...Stopping Russian tankers from delivering oil could antagonize Moscow at a time when NATO leaders want Russia to help mediate a settlement with Belgrade and contribute troops to a force to protect ethnic Albanians returning to Kosovo. Russian President Boris Yeltsin's envoy for Yugoslavia on Saturday dampened expectations of a mediated breakthrough. <<:>> TAKE YOUR PROFITS, THINGS HEATING UP AGAIN. BULLS EAT, BEARS EAT, PIGS GET SLAUGHTERED!!!
Sat Apr 24 17:02:14 EDT 1999
anonymous: Young traders take note of Wally: His flexibility is the key to his success. Never Marry a position in emerging market. This is a one night stand market. It pays to be a contrarian. Wally is my HEROOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Sat Apr 24 17:18:03 EDT 1999
anonymous: WASHINGTON, April 24 (UPI) - President Clinton refuses (Saturday) to rule out military confrontation with Russia over enforcement of an oil embargo on the former Yugoslavia. Clinton says he can not justify risking the lives of NATO pilots on strikes against Yugoslav refineries while allowing Belgrade to resupply itself with oil shipments in the Adriatic Sea. <<< WHAT THE HELL IS GOING ON?!!!!!!! I CANNOT BELIEVE WHAT I AM READING.
Sat Apr 24 17:31:35 EDT 1999
anonymous: It looks like Russia is raising the stakes. Do you blame them after all? Blair and Clinton are playing high risk poker and it's natural to attact other players. Especially players who got nothing to lose. Is there any "leader" out there with some common sense left?
Sat Apr 24 17:39:13 EDT 1999
anonymous: The problem here is ego. Slobo's, Boris', Bill's, and Tony's. Is this really worth risking a nuke confrontation?
Sat Apr 24 18:03:50 EDT 1999
anonymous: http://www.marketwatch.newsalert.com/bin/story?StoryId=CnYfbWdibvJa5nZC&FQ=Russia&Title=Headlines%20for%3A%20Russia%20 But Russia, angry about 32 days of airstrikes against Yugoslavia, indicated it would ignore an embargo. "According to international law, sanctions cannot be imposed unless they are approved by the (U.N.) Security Council," Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov said on a trip to Egypt. "We will continue delivering oil in keeping with our international commitments." And in Moscow, former Prime Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin said the world "may slip toward a third world war, the final war" as a result of NATO's bombing. Chernomyrdin, Russia's mediator on Kosovo, also said he had received invitations from the leaders of several NATO countries to discuss his recent efforts to end the crisis.
Sat Apr 24 18:10:55 EDT 1999
¤ wally ¤: there are NO heroes in emerging markets! there are only those who have guts AND were lucky not loose. only then they are called heroes. emerging markets are nowadays the equivalent of las vegas (place your bet: rouge où noire). take it from somebody with 20 years experience including ALL ups and downs.
Sat Apr 24 18:13:05 EDT 1999
¤ wally ¤: <nuke confrontation?> these politicians are ALL absof..inglutely mad!
Sat Apr 24 18:13:51 EDT 1999
anonymous: Wally. please comment on the potential conflict with Russia. Is it true?
Sat Apr 24 18:20:28 EDT 1999
¤ wally ¤: <CANNOT BELIEVE..> i too can't believe it, but these are the facts. we have won the cold war? and now we are marching on the brink of an abyss. i vote for daily mandatory blow-jobs for ALL politicians involvedin order to reduce frustration.
Sat Apr 24 18:25:03 EDT 1999
anonymous: maybe the IMF negotiations are not going well and russia is using greenmail to get more? do you think, wally?
Sat Apr 24 18:30:06 EDT 1999
¤ wally ¤: <Wally please comment> i am lacking the words to comment because i am outraged. the ladies/gentlemen (whom WE voted into power!) are having a good time celebrating NATO's birthday, going on 'fact finding missions' and spending our tax dollar/euros. in my heart of hearts i am still hoping that there is some kind of confidential hanky-panky business going between the U.S. of A. and russia to avoid a real conflict. but both are slowly running out of options.
Sat Apr 24 18:36:56 EDT 1999
¤ wally ¤: <greenmail> i don't think so. it is just that both blocks are caught between a rock and a hard place. the hawks (clinton, madame albright and tony 'cronie' blair) think they can't back off now. the spineless europeans have no say anyway. what all of them did not consider is the century old russian position and relations with the serbian people. i am sure there is a lot of confusion in boris'/primakow's offices going on too.
Sat Apr 24 18:50:50 EDT 1999
¤ wally ¤: some comment before i go and a watch a relaxing STAR-TREK episode (where they have eliminated the present shortcomings): some days ago somebody mentioned "blood money" in context with kosovo and russian bonds. i was upset then. now i have second thoughts. one thing is clear: history will look upon us the same way we look upon the dark ages. we, high and mighty, armed with cruise missiles and smart bombs, killing innocent people, calling it COLLATERAL DAMAGE -an expression of utmost perversity-!
Sat Apr 24 19:10:35 EDT 1999
PILLX: IMF Says `Significant Issues' Must Be Resolved in Talks With Russia http://quote.bloomberg.com/pgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&T=markets_topfin_sum99.ht&s=0d09ad2e85b41f97493272bbe58fe460
Sat Apr 24 19:20:48 EDT 1999
anonymous: in other words "blackmail" not "greenmail". queen of shebah
Sat Apr 24 19:24:23 EDT 1999
PILLX: Several major issues remain unsolved in talks over the resumption of loans to Russia, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said Saturday.The IMF issued a statement after concluding a trip to Moscow on Friday, saying that "further progress was made" by the mission since its arrival on April 7."A quantitative macro-economic scenario has been elaborated and most of the fiscal, monetary and structural policies have been identified to achieve the programme targets," it said."However, some significant issues remain outstanding and will be discussed further next week in Washington," when a Russian delegation is set to visit the the IMF's interim committee.The talks followed up an agreement in principle to resume finanical aid to Russia, announced on March 29 after IMF head Michel Camdessus visited the Russian capital.The exact sums of aid have not been released but it is likely that they will correspond to the 4.6 billion dollars which Russia is due to reimburse to the IMF this year.Such an arrangement means that Russia may not receive any fresh aid, but an agreement with the IMF will allow it obtain further support and to restructure some of its debts.
Sat Apr 24 19:25:18 EDT 1999
PILLX: The IMF issued a statement after concluding a trip to Moscow on Friday, saying that "further progress was made" by the mission since its arrival on April 7."A quantitative macro-economic scenario has been elaborated and most of the fiscal, monetary and structural policies have been identified to achieve the programme targets," it said."However, some significant issues remain outstanding and will be discussed further next week in Washington," when a Russian delegation is set to visit the the IMF's interim committee.The talks followed up an agreement in principle to resume finanical aid to Russia, announced on March 29 after IMF head Michel Camdessus visited the Russian capital.The exact sums of aid have not been released but it is likely that they will correspond to the 4.6 billion dollars which Russia is due to reimburse to the IMF this year.Such an arrangement means that Russia may not receive any fresh aid, but an agreement with the IMF will allow it obtain further support and to restructure some of its debts.
Sat Apr 24 19:26:24 EDT 1999
PILLX: The IMF issued a statement after concluding a trip to Moscow on Friday, saying that "further progress was made" by the mission since its arrival on April 7."A quantitative macro-economic scenario has been elaborated and most of the fiscal, monetary and structural policies have been identified to achieve the programme targets,"it said."However,some significant issues remain outstanding and will be discussed further next week in Washington," when a Russian delegation is set to visit the the IMF's interim committee.The talks followed up an agreement in principle to resume finanical aid to Russia,announced on March 29 after IMF head Michel Camdessus visited the Russian capital.The exact sums of aid have not been released but it is likely that they will correspond to the 4.6 billion dollars which Russia is due to reimburse to the IMF this year.Such an arrangement means that Russia may not receive any fresh aid, but an agreement with the IMF will allow it obtain further support and to restructure some of its debts
Sat Apr 24 19:27:14 EDT 1999
anonymous: Even so, analysts say Russia will probably get the money and that an IMF program is likely to continue through the end of next year. That would allow the government to cope with its foreign debt payments this year and next. It is increasingly likely that the program will cover 18 months and accordingly the amounts will probably be larger than the $3 billion to $4 billion, to take care of external debt payments for 2000 as well as 1999, said Goohoon Kwon, senior economist at ABN Amro Bank in London. That would be a pleasant surprise. AND A 50 HANDLE ON RUSSIAN EUROS. queen of shebah
Sat Apr 24 19:43:45 EDT 1999
anonymous: Dream on queen.
Sat Apr 24 20:00:29 EDT 1999
anonymous: Russia's payments to the IMF are: 1999: 3.7 prin/.8 int; 2000: 4.0 prin/.9 int; 2001: 4.3 prin/.9 int; The Russians owe the IMF a crushing $15 billion over the next 2 1/2 years. Almost $10 bn just through next year. Even if the package is say $6 bn from the IMF through 2000, Russia must come up with a net payment of $4 bn to the IMF. To have a neutral transfer to the IMF, the 18 month deal must be at least $10 bn. These are the hard facts, as Wally says. That is why the situation is so complicated. And why I am bearish because the IMF program does not include any reforms that will put Russia back on track. Maybe also why the political situation is deteriorating. We all need to be realistic and constructive, but not naive. Stop the bombing, get Russia to the table. Let the Russian people know the West feels their pain and will do all they can to help ease the transition to a real economy. Show some good will to the Russian people. This is a very dangerous situation. No time for complancy, ignorance, or denial.
Sat Apr 24 20:01:10 EDT 1999
anonymous: Russia's payments to the IMF are: 1999: 3.7 prin/.8 int; 2000: 4.0 prin/.9 int; 2001: 4.3 prin/.9 int; The Russians owe the IMF a crushing $15 billion over the next 2 1/2 years. Almost $10 bn just through next year. Even if the package is say $6 bn from the IMF through 2000, Russia must come up with a net payment of $4 bn to the IMF. To have a neutral transfer to the IMF, the 18 month deal must be at least $10 bn. These are the hard facts, as Wally says. That is why the situation is so complicated. And why I am bearish because the IMF program does not include any reforms that will put Russia back on track. Maybe also why the political situation is deteriorating. We all need to be realistic and constructive, but not naive. Stop the bombing, get Russia to the table. Let the Russian people know the West feels their pain and will do all they can to help ease the transition to a real economy. Show some good will to the Russian people. This is a very dangerous situation. No time for complancy, ignorance, or denial.
Sat Apr 24 20:01:59 EDT 1999
anonymous: Russia's payments to the IMF are: 1999: 3.7 prin/.8 int; 2000: 4.0 prin/.9 int; 2001: 4.3 prin/.9 int; The Russians owe the IMF a crushing $15 billion over the next 2 1/2 years. Almost $10 bn just through next year. Even if the package is say $6 bn from the IMF through 2000, Russia must come up with a net payment of $4 bn to the IMF. To have a neutral transfer to the IMF, the 18 month deal must be at least $10 bn. These are the hard facts, as Wally says. That is why the situation is so complicated. And why I am bearish because the IMF program does not include any reforms that will put Russia back on track. Maybe also why the political situation is deteriorating.
Sat Apr 24 20:14:58 EDT 1999
anonymous: 04-24-99 Anonymous: Even so, analysts say Russia will probably get the mon<< Even so, same analysts telling us to buy last year at 90 and sell this year at 20.
Sat Apr 24 20:48:09 EDT 1999
anonymous: Jacques Chirac was introduced as the Foreign Minister of the Republic of France for the NATO/White House dinner - which means he wasn't planning on attending. Does he have some urgent business elsewhere, or does this indicate a fallout from the issue of an oil embargo? Kwasniewski's wife looked as dazzling as ever.
Sat Apr 24 21:01:06 EDT 1999
anonymous: a short while ago the 40 handle was a dream and *quoting wally* all anal-lysts were amused. now it is a reality! why not let me have some dreams? queen of sheba
Sat Apr 24 21:02:39 EDT 1999
anonymous: anal-lysts!
Sat Apr 24 21:18:57 EDT 1999
anonymous: 04-24-99 Anonymous: Jacques Chirac was introduced as the Foreign Minister of the Republic of France for the NATO/White House dinner - which means he wasn't planning on attending. D<<< Good point! I think there is some heavy stuff going down. Clinton bolted 45 minutes earlier and without warning from a NATO meeting at left the Naval Officer carrrying the "nuclear codes" behind. The officer with the "nuclear football" had to walk 45 minutes back to the White House. What the heck is going on?
Sat Apr 24 22:05:55 EDT 1999
anonymous: 04-24-99 Anonymous: Russia's payments to the IMF are: 1999: 3.7 prin/.8 int; 2000: 4.0 prin/.9 int; 2001: 4.3 prin/.9 int; The Russians owe the IMF a c<<< Wally, please comment on this!
Sat Apr 24 22:15:35 EDT 1999
anonymous: WASHINGTON (AP) -- Enlarging the mission of NATO, Western leaders authorized the alliance Saturday to confront crises beyond its borders -- such as other Kosovos -- and to intensify the battle against ethnic conflict, terrorism and weapons of mass destruction. The alliance laid plans for sea searches to ``switch off the oil tap'' fueling Slobodan Milosevic's forces. On the second day of talks, President Clinton also brought up the three American servicemen captured by Serb forces. He complained that Yugoslav President Milosevic has denied the soldiers Red Cross visits while telling American television audiences he would permit them. <<WALLY, THIS ARROGANCE IS ASTOUNDING! HOW DO YOU THINK THE ARABS, CHINESE, AND JAPANESE WILL LIKE THIS?
Sat Apr 24 22:29:02 EDT 1999
anonymous: Hasty Clinton abandons nuclear codes United Press International - April 24, 1999 20:58 WASHINGTON, April 24 (UPI) - The White House said President Clinton departed the NATO summit so fast that he left behind the military aide carrying the briefcase containing U.S. nuclear launch codes known as ``the football.'' A White House spokesman nevertheless said there never was any security breach, as the president travels with two military aides, and the one carrying the football quickly walked the several blocks back to the White House.
Sat Apr 24 22:35:00 EDT 1999
anonymous: Asked whether the alliance would resort to military action against Russia if Moscow refuses to observe NATO's new oil embargo against Belgrade, Clinton said the United States will try to avoid any action that ``leads to violence, but we have to be firm about it.'' <<< Is this Clinton threatening Russia if they don't back down?????
Sat Apr 24 23:00:15 EDT 1999
Howard: To those of you who are reacting with anger, frustration and anxiety to the current situation revolving around Yugoslavia, please do not consider this to be a "lead-in" to a nuclear war. It is a GOOD sign when Chernomyrdin says, "the world may slip toward a third world war, the final war" as a result of NATO's bombing. He is signaling that he knows the consequences of confrontation, and Russia will not risk it, and surely NATO will not risk it (despite all who say they are doing just that). The prelude to nuclear war is NOT present; it will not come about as long as adversaries conduct themselves in such a relatively benign fashion.
Sat Apr 24 23:30:13 EDT 1999
anonymous: I may be able to convey to you our accomplishments: 1.Accelerated the oppression of albanian kosovars we are pledged to help, 2.Created a wave of Antiamericanism in Europe, 3. Increased the risk to recreate the old East-West political and cultural divide. 4. Increased risk to bring down Yeltsin and have nuclear weapons to unstable and unfriendly hands, 5.Made Balkans hostage to Milosevic. Is this what our best minds can come up with?
Sun Apr 25 00:14:47 EDT 1999
anonymous: Howard, I wish NATO would apply such benign pressure on Israel.
Sun Apr 25 01:32:12 EDT 1999
PILLX: France has reservations about using force to impose an oil embargo on Yugoslavia if ships try to defy the alliance, French President Jacques Chirac said Saturday. He said the North Atlantic Treaty Organization must carefully examine how ships that will conduct searches and inspections to try to choke off the oil supply operate. "According to international rules, it is an act of war" to stop and forcibly search ships on the seas, Chirac said. "So we must be very cautious." Asked about France's concerns, U.S. President Bill Clinton said later that he wanted to avoid violence, but the alliance had to be firm and take all steps necessary to enforce the oil embargo. Chirac said France fully supported NATO's determination to prevent any material useful to Yugoslav military forces from reaching them and urged all democratic nations to support the embargo.
Sun Apr 25 05:54:34 EDT 1999
anonymous: Wally: 20 years experience in EM markets - looking Star Trek. Did you find a drug of youth in the jungle? Would you reveal how young you are? With compliments!
Sun Apr 25 07:02:46 EDT 1999
¤ wally ¤: <Wally, would you reveal..> age=((EMG²)*(@pmt÷µ^±5)+•°) to resolve equation please use 17 years experience which gives a more accurate result.
Sun Apr 25 07:20:05 EDT 1999
¤ wally ¤: howard: you are stating (let's all hope) facts. however that does not mean one has to accept how our politicians (with pure arrogance) play like children with fire. whether a prelude to a nuclear or any widening of the war exists in reality is completely irrelevant. the fact remains that NATO has started a war. conflicting messages, statements and rumours are flying around. average citizens are confused. i fully endorse anon's posting <<<Is this what our best minds can come up with?>>>
Sun Apr 25 07:30:10 EDT 1999
¤ wally ¤: clintons statement: "United States will try to avoid any action that leads to violence, but we have to be firm about it." just analyse this sentence and your result = stupid^infinite.
Sun Apr 25 07:47:32 EDT 1999
¤ wally ¤: <russia owes imf> the figures are indeed facts, no doubt about it. but the environment has changed and so has the role of the imf. even before the balkan crisis the imf had been given a political kick to change its attitude towards russia (don't anybody tell me is was not so!). i think that the problem of russia's debt (imf) can be solved. some days ago somebody mentioned "imf/political slush fund". well, i tend to agree. imagine what political power is in the hands of g7 (which is dominantly NATO) for years to come with camdessus and a briefcase bouncing back and forth between washington and MOCKBA.
Sun Apr 25 07:55:32 EDT 1999
¤ wally ¤: <Created a wave of Antiamericanism in Europe> this statement needs a tiny correction. make it "created a wave of antiamericanism WORLDWIDE and REVIVED antiamericanism WORLDWIDE" just read a few independent international papers, all available on the net.
Sun Apr 25 08:18:52 EDT 1999
anonymous: Take for instance the Palestinians. Israel has "ethnically cleansed" over 700,000 Palestinians from their homes. More than 500 villages had been destroyed in the early stages of the action and many homes have been destroyed even very recently. Will Nato now bomb Israel after finishing their activities in Kosovo? I hope so, after all surely Nato represents democratic and fair-thinking progressive nations. Wally, please comment.
Sun Apr 25 08:21:40 EDT 1999
anonymous: In Kosovo we always read of ethnic leansing. Here actually the "ethnic" part seems to be secondary. The primary reason is that Orthodox Christians want to get rid of a Muslim Population (which happens to be ethnically different). But of course Western (Christian) owned media could not possible call a spade a spade and a Christian Terrorist a Christian Terrorist.
Sun Apr 25 08:34:39 EDT 1999
anonymous: The NATO argument is a logical continuation of the allies' World War II thesis which enabled deliberate targeting of German and Japaneses cities on the facile ground that the civilian population centributed to war production. On the basis of this logic, NATO can go ahead and kill Yugoslav children without much compuction since they give joy to their fathers who are soldiers in Milosevic's war machine. Water supply plants can be attacked since Milosevic's soldiers drink the water. And oil refineries, oil storages and chemical plants can be blasted and air over Yugoslavia polluted since soldiers of Milosevic breathe that air. Yet, NATO and the west claim the war is against Milosevic and not Yugoslav people. This is not black propaganda but honest truth, according to not only NATO military planners but many western media persons.
Sun Apr 25 08:37:57 EDT 1999
anonymous: Yugoslavia's "black propaganda" is not seen around the world; the propaganda of NATO countries is flashed across the globe, including Yugoslavia. Why then is the NATO, despite its enormously vast resources for propaganda, so afraid of the Yugoslav TV. Freedom is killed when a source of dissenting views, however disagreeable they may be, is silenced by violence. NATO struck a blow to freedom it claims to uphold when it destroyed the Belgrade TV station. It is utterly perverse and Orwellian to justify that act in the name of upholding humanitarian values.
Sun Apr 25 09:14:24 EDT 1999
¤ wally ¤: <palestinians, Wally pls comment> this issue was raised a few times before and to my relief i was never asked directly to comment. now it happened and though i do not consider myself a coward i decline to comment. the reason is i am a GERMAN (who as a young man embraced ISLAM), who has fine JEWISH as well as ARAB friends, who grew up in post war germany being continously educated that because of auschwitz, treblinka and other facts his parents and basically all adult germans were/are criminals. the residue of this still remains causing quite often paranoid and conflicting emotions. i hope you can understand that i do lack the qualification to comment.
Sun Apr 25 11:42:15 EDT 1999
Howard: Bradynetters: I read your messages with great interest, and I'm not surprised at their consistent note of reproach regarding NATO and America. A question for all of you: Among all the nations of the world which would be mourned the most if by some magical stroke it was to disappear from the planet?
Sun Apr 25 12:03:29 EDT 1999
anonymous: it would be CUBA. fidel
Sun Apr 25 12:05:58 EDT 1999
anonymous: This is a silly question Howard!
Sun Apr 25 13:03:43 EDT 1999
anonymous: 04-25-99 Anonymous: Take for instance the Palestinians. Israel has "ethnically cleansed" over 700,000 Palestinians from their homes. More than 500 villages had been destroyed in the early stages of the action and many homes have been destroyed even very recently. Will Nato now bomb Israel after finishing their activities in Kosovo? I hope so, after all surely Nato represents democratic and fair-thinking progressive nations. DON'T BE SO HYPOCRITICAL,GNOMI,LOOK AT INDIA/PAKI1947
Sun Apr 25 13:35:52 EDT 1999
anonymous: Chirac is a bigger clown than Clinton.
Sun Apr 25 13:42:41 EDT 1999
anonymous: I am afraid to say this, but I think the IMF package will be calculated and designed buy the IMF and U.S. Treasury to provide Russia just enough to squeek through to the election and making it very tight so Russia will tempted to default on Eurobonds. We all know that behind close doors this is what the official sector wants. Slush fund for Russia? You are smoking big dope. The IMF gave a $21 Bn slush fund to Yelsin and look where we are now. Time will tell, Comrades. Roll the die.
Sun Apr 25 13:52:27 EDT 1999
anonymous: Helmut Sonnenfeldt, an analyst at the Brookings Institution, said of the Russians, "They are angry, and all their grievances and their sense of humiliation are being acted out in this rather vituperative public rhetoric and military threats." At the same time, the administration halted an effort at negotiation by a Republican congressman with longstanding ties to Russia. The congressman, Curt Weldon of Pennsylvania, was contacted two weeks ago by Vladimir Ryzhkov, deputy speaker of the Russian Parliament, and the two were laying the groundwork for a joint mission to Belgrade to meet with Milosevic on Monday. NY TIMES

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