Color of the Market Archive, Page #2
Color of the Market A R C H I V E 

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The Color of the Market has been an online meeting place for people interested in emerging market debt since 1996, and has undergone many changes in that time. We have discovered an old archive of Color of the Market messages, covering 5 months starting in late 1998. For the benefit of both old and new Bradynetters, we present this archive untouched.

Note: Back in these days, the forum software was greatly different than the Color of the Market that we are now accustomed to. Without the requirement of registration, the forum began to attract disrupters who would engage in vulgarities, name-calling, impersonation of users, and other childish hijinks. But if you can wade through the nonsense, some of the comments herein are historic, and prophetic.

Enjoy,
IDEAGlobal/BradyNet Staff

Thu Jan 7 14:36:39 EST 1999
westy: I agree with you grim, this website sucks.
Thu Jan 7 14:37:10 EST 1999
anonymous: Then why don't you go away and leave us alone ??????
Thu Jan 7 14:42:58 EST 1999
G: the site is excellent in terms of info etc. i think what make it a little less appealing is the array of idiotic comments about where C-bond of frb is gonna go as if anybody knows. stupid speculation without any references. i would prefer to see more analysis from other sources instead. however, if it makes people feel good and important by saying that C will go to 40 or 60, hey what can we do?
Thu Jan 7 15:01:36 EST 1999
Flipper: G: analysis - paralysis!! Get a view on the market. Don't want to hear about inflation or growth. I wanna know, should I buy them or sell them.
Thu Jan 7 15:10:19 EST 1999
G: i know a few people who wanted to know if they should buy or sell and now they are flipping burgers at McDonalds. Out of curiosity, and if it's not going to be a problem for u, do u have a (paid) job and if yes what is its description. thanx.
Thu Jan 7 15:14:51 EST 1999
G R: G: Ouch! Flipper: Do you mean "turd" flipper?
Thu Jan 7 15:18:49 EST 1999
Uri V.: The Brazil situation boils down to a political tug of war between an important state and the federal government over the division of fiscal revenue
Thu Jan 7 15:20:40 EST 1999
Edmundo: The more this goes on, the more confidence drains out. "There are not a lot of things going right in Brazil at the moment
Thu Jan 7 15:24:59 EST 1999
Uri V.: "So far this year dealer inventory has been building up and then as soon as we got this bad news the inventory has been shaken out into a technically fragile market," A move like this a couple of months ago would have brought all of Latin America down almost equally. But despite the fact that Brazil fell a couple of points from the high, Mexico was hardly down .
Thu Jan 7 15:35:58 EST 1999
anonymous: This whole exercise is an attempt to shuffle off liabilities onto the federal balance sheet rather than the states' balance sheets. The concept is to lose the liabilities and the debt service that goes with it.
Thu Jan 7 15:36:45 EST 1999
anonymous: The reason markets took fright is because this is another marker that the battleground is not just in Congress, it's through all the regional governments as well -- that's the reason for the uncertainty and the markdown in prices that has occurred in yesterday's trading and again today. It's more a reflection of political difficulties for Cardoso ahead, rather than a specific fear of default by Brazilian states.
Thu Jan 7 15:42:11 EST 1999
Uri V: To Anon: (finally making sense in the board) Ca you further explain your comments on "attempt to shuffle off liabilities onto the federal balance sheet"
Thu Jan 7 15:45:51 EST 1999
anonymous: This incurs public sector fiscal deficits in exactly the same magnitude as before, but the owner of the deficits changes from the states to the federal government. In looking not so much at the fiscal deficits but in terms the total internal debt, there has already been a fairly significant transfer out of states' liabilities and into federal liabilities. The only sensible way to look at it in terms of a country credit is to add together the total public sector liabilities and to see what that looks like. And at the total, in totality, nothing changes.
Thu Jan 7 15:48:22 EST 1999
Pele: All the political opponents to Cardoso will jump on this bandwagon. Either Cardoso wins this battle, or Brazil goes back to the lost decade
Thu Jan 7 15:57:31 EST 1999
JP: Minas Gerais said its revenue base barely meets its monthly obligations,how are they going to to pay $100 million in Eurobonds that come due on Feb. 10.?
Thu Jan 7 16:07:22 EST 1999
Marcos C.: Talk about bad timing! Just when Brazil needs Intl. markets confidence they pull this surprise off. It sounds like a political move in a country where political self interest always managed to sour the economy.
Thu Jan 7 16:13:42 EST 1999
Charles Ponzi: The game is up. Give it up.
Thu Jan 7 16:16:36 EST 1999
Ken: Anyone have closing prices for Russian prins, 26's, 18's, and 07's? Thanks.
Thu Jan 7 16:22:36 EST 1999
Yuri: Prin asked @ 6.35, 18's @ 26 and 07's @ 29.25
Thu Jan 7 16:26:31 EST 1999
Ken: Thanks, Yuri.
Thu Jan 7 20:43:55 EST 1999
Phantom: SPANKY my babe, you were great in your new sky outfit, best girl on the slopes, not even the mexican babes... C bonds are "only" 9.75 points from a 40 handle - thats quite a distance !! and don't forget you also predicted Veni DCB's at 50 - they are "only" 18 points away (they amortized in december)... keep to your sexy sky moves !!!
Thu Jan 7 20:51:38 EST 1999
Xuxa: Pele you are still mad because I left you, did Venezuela stop servicing their debt while they devalued 300% ? Anyone that bot DCB's back then at 39 (4 years ago) is still laughing all the way to the bank. If Brazil devalues 100% debt servicing becomes much easier and hopefully C Bonds will be at 30...
Thu Jan 7 21:09:59 EST 1999
anonymous: Mr. Ponzi - the game is never over !! You are obviously a newcomer, change your name.
Thu Jan 7 22:21:53 EST 1999
Einstein: Xuxa -- Venezuela is unique. PDVSA a cash cow and revenues in dollars, so government helped by devaluation. Much different story in Brazil and Argentina. And, Venezuela defaulted on everything but sovereign dollar bonds. It defaulted on the Paris Club and other non-private bonds. So get your facts straight or you are gonna lose mucho bucks!
Thu Jan 7 22:25:44 EST 1999
Spanky: Phantom Bid: C Bonds could trade there in one day. Strap yourself, my friend. As soon as Amazon.CON breaks, the U.S. market breaks and can u say adios to port-u-geese?
Fri Jan 8 08:35:54 EST 1999
Spadolini: as father of no children you feel free to be irresponsible, Ralf, Spanky, John, chameleon De Niro like. Stay stick to the business you command best: exhibitionism
Fri Jan 8 08:53:34 EST 1999
anonymous: Frpm Barton Biggs "I can see those markets (Emerging Markets) going back down to (last year's) lows, which is a substantial distance from<BR> where they are now, if we have a second bear leg in the U.S. But<BR> I don't think they'll set new lows.'' Biggs also described U.S. stocks as being ``in a blow-off<BR> stage. Valuations are just ridiculous, and as the year progresses<BR> earnings are going to be increasingly disappointing.'
Fri Jan 8 09:00:30 EST 1999
anonymous: Barton Biggs described U.S. stocks as being ``in a blow-off stage. Valuations are just ridiculous, and as the year progresses earnings are going to be increasingly disappointing.He also said about EM markets `I can see those markets going back down to (last year's) lows, which is a substantial distance from where they are now, if we have a second bear leg in the U.S. I don't think they'll set new lows.''
Fri Jan 8 10:10:07 EST 1999
anonymous: it's last year's Mr Dow 10.000
Fri Jan 8 10:16:35 EST 1999
vinicius: For JP: The "secretario do Casa Civil" of Minas Gerais told the press yesterday that the bond due 02/10 will not be served. (see Jornal do Brazil of january 8th, page 13).
Fri Jan 8 10:17:00 EST 1999
anonymous: "The absence of negative news, slim client flows and a stronger stock market in Europe and the U.S. are helping the market,"
Fri Jan 8 13:19:27 EST 1999
Spanky: 40 handle, GIRLS!!!
Fri Jan 8 13:29:20 EST 1999
Spanky: Buy rubles, the dollar will collapse GIRLS !
Fri Jan 8 13:36:10 EST 1999
anonymous: "A 90-day debt moratorium announced this week by Brazil's Minas Gerais state affects only payments to the federal government, the state's vice governor Newton Cardoso said on Friday."
Fri Jan 8 13:38:22 EST 1999
Spanky: Buy rubles, sell EM traders who dick around on this website..
Fri Jan 8 13:40:51 EST 1999
Fidelito: Congratulations Itamar welcome to our greatest time losers club (Alan Garcia, Luis Echeverria, etc.), populist stances have made us the joke of the world.
Fri Jan 8 13:44:14 EST 1999
Spanky the Gang (Ralfie, John et. al: Spaldo -- why is the word "sell" irresponsible? What is irresponsible is promoting this bubble and getting the poor average person long. You should know that by now.. Look at the middle class in Asia that were wiped out because of the bubble bursting. It is time to bring some sense back to the global markets. The GLOBAL CASINO is about to close. And, unfortunately, the Emerging markets will be hit the hardest when the day of reckoning comes. Recall that the last time Argentina left a currency board regime was in 1929. Dummy up, Spaldo and save your parents if you don't have children.
Fri Jan 8 13:50:29 EST 1999
wally: i always thought this is a bond forum. where is the bond 'bubble' as far as emerging markets are concerned? the bubble i know existed summer/autumn 1997 with single digit yields all over. this is 1999 and i can't see any bubble except european and us-american stock markets.
Fri Jan 8 13:55:17 EST 1999
Wetback: Spazdolini: please just keep buying everything, you dumbass.
Fri Jan 8 14:00:02 EST 1999
Spanky: Wally -you make a good point. But here is the issue: emerging market bond are highly correlated with the U.S. equity market. Especially on the downside. Recall that the U.S. market peaked on July 21 when Greenspan started jawboning interest rates. It fell about 10% in the next 30 days and caused a big flight to quality risk aversion trade. Specs in Russia got very nervous and started moving out. The whole thing came unwound on Aug 20th and accelerated the downdraft. Some, my friend, the risk at Itamar, the risk is Mr. Dow Jones!!!! Brazil will make it if the Dow continues to rally. Brazil will blow up if we have a 5-10% correction. Read some Barton Biggs. The problem is there is a 2-way unstable causality between Brazil and the U.S. equity market.. I see no way out for U.S. policy makers.. And, hey! It ain't the end of the world if the bull market ends. But it will be painful..
Fri Jan 8 14:15:11 EST 1999
Omar: Refreshing to see rational arguments they are always welcome ! Spanky has a point that if the US stock market tumbles the EM bonds would go down too, however if one concedes that this downturn does not equate default and one is willing to ride the storm and hold for the yield.. there could be a good buying opportunity as well.
Fri Jan 8 14:26:11 EST 1999
Spanky: Omar -- you also make some good points. The problem is that there will be big pressure on emerging market currencies esp, Latin currencies, if the the flight to quality takes place. Countries will have to make the choice as reserves plummet. Continue to pay or default and divert debt service for a social safety net. My sense the political support for the "Washington Consensus" is fading. The U.S. has pissed off Japan and Europe in this whole crisis. I think we are on the verge of a new paradigm.
Fri Jan 8 14:32:10 EST 1999
Spanky: 7 points from 40 handle on C Bonds!!!!
Fri Jan 8 14:33:57 EST 1999
Omar: I agree Spanky, weak currencies & poor fiscal discipline could cause very diffcult choices with unpleasant results. What is this new paradigm that you see ?
Fri Jan 8 14:36:27 EST 1999
anonymous: Come On !!!!, drop the bull-predictions, u're much better when you get serious spanky
Fri Jan 8 14:39:54 EST 1999
Spanky: It is developing. A move away from "hot money" and bailouts. More toward "burden sharing" and "bail-ins" where foreign capital is trapped and will help the official sector provide external support through rescheduling of contractual claims -- ala Korea and Russia -- or providing new money to help borrowers pay interest. This was the paradigm in the 1980's. We are in very dangerous territory here. The only thing I would be long are Russian globals at 50%..
Fri Jan 8 14:42:31 EST 1999
Spaanky: Anon. -- it ain't a prediction it my view. Rumor circ in the S&P pits that Malan has resigned. Anything to it.. it caused U.S. stocks to flop.
Fri Jan 8 14:47:59 EST 1999
anonymous: Interesting how Amazon.COM is now flopping and Brazil C Bonds getting hit along with U.S. equities. It is not about fundamentals it is about confidence, froth, and euphoria!!! Just say no to the BUBBLE!!
Fri Jan 8 16:25:52 EST 1999
JPC: C's are testingthe 58's levels. Beware, investors bought the bonds near this low on four separate occasions in recent months: once in October, twice in December and again last Thursday. They may decide to sell if the price drops below 58 and they start losing money on their bet. I hate to say this but Spanky may be right after all. 40 handle is not that far off if it brakes aggresively the 58 support level.
Fri Jan 8 16:32:22 EST 1999
Pele: At about $2.4 billion, daily trading in these bonds (about four times that in all 56 companies in the Bovespa index.), there is no better baromater to measure money managers sentiment. We need to get reassuiring news from Brazilian Officials concerning Malan Franco and the other rebel states. I you are still long Brazil take a hedge or suffer the cocequences.
Fri Jan 8 16:49:16 EST 1999
Spanky: Pele -- it just doesn't matter. What matters is the current account deficit, monetary and fiscal policy... and that there is no consensus to squeeze the economy to protect speculators...
Fri Jan 8 17:17:10 EST 1999
ES: If all the states refused to pay (very unlikely) the fiscal impact would be very small. Virtually all states receive more than they owe from the federal government. The federal government has the right to withhold transfer payments and tax revenue to the states, so a freeze in debt payments probably wouldn't hurt the central government's finances much,
Fri Jan 8 20:45:07 EST 1999
Cheeetah: Spanky 8 points from handle - and with sooo much bad news, lets make a bet 2 Cohibas Esplendidos and a couple of goo cognacs that we don't see a 40 handle on the offer side by the end of january... also what about your 50 Veni DCB's ?? Salud
Fri Jan 8 20:47:46 EST 1999
Hugo Chavez: Whats all the fuss on "Contrary Indicator" Barton Biggs??? A few years off center 80% of the time... I went short Japan on his latest recomendation to buy Japan back in October....
Sat Jan 9 04:16:39 EST 1999
Spadolini: Ralf, head for Buzios, stay at the Auberge de l'Hermitage. Go into Rio for Carnaval.
Sat Jan 9 05:13:23 EST 1999
Truth_Hurts_(In this case: He certainly would like to go, but he ain't got NO BUCKS, because prophecies are not paid, hahahahahaha.
Sat Jan 9 09:20:22 EST 1999
Spermbull: Marc and James don't want their intellectual property being sold by Ralf as his own one. The Asia issue is Dr. Doom's; the great reckoning one is Davidson/Rees-Moog's.
Sat Jan 9 11:05:19 EST 1999
Spanky: Cheat-ta: Done: Never said 50 handle on DCBs in Jan.. Did say Vennie will default in the next 2 years. What about all your long positions you're getting smoked on!! Have a nice day.
Sat Jan 9 11:11:55 EST 1999
Wally: O say can you C, the bonds go to 40. What so proudly we sell, to buy them cheaper. And the longs are all scared, Spaldolini has no hair. O say can that C hold, the support if it can! What so proudly we short, and we'll see you in court. As the payments don't come.
Sat Jan 9 11:16:52 EST 1999
Spanky_the_real_one: stop faking my name. quit picking on me. you are all jealous and have no conviction. i am never going to talk with you again. you are all nothing but cheap Elvis impersonaters!
Sat Jan 9 11:19:04 EST 1999
Abbey C: Spermbull: yea, just like Farber said in 1996: "this is a chance of a life-time to sell U.S. stocks..
Sat Jan 9 11:36:33 EST 1999
Dr Doom: My name is Dr. Marc Faber, Mr Ralf Rechthaber.
Sat Jan 9 11:48:33 EST 1999
Joe: Dr. Doom: If you name is Marc Farber. Tell me what is your main source of transportation around Hong Kong. And what is your office littered with. What kind of paraphanelia? I have been to your office, Marc. And I don't think you are the real one. And, it is 10 PM in Hong Kong.
Sat Jan 9 12:52:15 EST 1999
Elvis the Pelvis: Hi Spasty_the_real_one: <<I'm never going to talk with you again>> That's the best statement you made ever since. Farewell! Luv u Ralfie!
Sat Jan 9 13:49:49 EST 1999
Spanklin D. Roosevelt: Elvis: Ralph this. and then Ralph your C Bonds
Sat Jan 9 14:55:29 EST 1999
Yeats: The center cannot hold.
Sat Jan 9 15:22:23 EST 1999
wally: to Wally: next time you fake my name don't use a capital "W". in future any wally without my correct adress should be considered fake!
Sat Jan 9 16:45:44 EST 1999
Terminator: there will be no next time; this liar/imposter is finished.
Sat Jan 9 21:00:26 EST 1999
Sock_the_Cat: 'The December employment report effectively stuffed a sock in the mouth of the doomsday deflationists' - MMS Globalmarkets
Sun Jan 10 02:43:01 EST 1999
Cheetah: Some of my longs are off their highs 5 to 10 points but still well over cost (Ex. Globo 08 cost 53 now at 62 were at 72) BUT my Veni longs are near there highs.. and INNOVA from my cost 46 is still up to 79... and my IAN's are higher. SO on average it's OK not that smoked...ready to BUY more Brazil Corps : more Globo, more Sabesp, more Comtel AND buy back the C bonds I sold for a profit.. and BUY more Veni and some Russki 18's...
Sun Jan 10 02:53:00 EST 1999
Cheetah: A bet: Veni DCB's hit 70 before next friday !!! Any takers ?
Sun Jan 10 06:36:15 EST 1999
Spasty D. Boozevelt: Why the hell do I not have more bucks to buy more stoli? It's all so boring without.
Sun Jan 10 08:17:59 EST 1999
Pele: As Brazil's benchmark yield climbs, so do borrowing costs for the government and companies. Tighter credit may only speed the economy's slide into recession this year. Brazilian banks that hold ``C'' bonds take a hit, too
Sun Jan 10 09:01:41 EST 1999
euro: If you all just could speak a real language. This site should be a discussion forum about the market or the markets and not just a club of little bankers who are proud to speak a kind of insider dialect, of underordered employees to give themselves a great look. It does not take more space to say the things in a good english understandable to all, also to these who are not bankers or even americans.
Sun Jan 10 09:15:50 EST 1999
anonymous: "This is a deal between Minas and a private bank," Franco said. "So, there is no room here, constitutionally, for interference by the Finance Ministry."
Sun Jan 10 09:17:29 EST 1999
anonymous: We feared Chavez one month ago, now he looks like a kitten next to Franco.
Sun Jan 10 09:19:58 EST 1999
anonymous: "two Russians newspapers, said that a declaration of a Russian default would lead to government property abroad as well as the foreign holdings of Russian citizens being seized. " ...???
Sun Jan 10 10:53:24 EST 1999
No_recourse: Anon. Nonsense! Holders of prins and ians have no recourse. The borrower is Vnesh. not the Russian Goveernment. Now, if Russia defaults on the globals, it's a different story. Russia held up the restructuring negotiations for 6 months refusing to guarentee the prins and ians for this very purpose. They have the best law firm in the world -- wrt sovereign restructurings. As a global bond holder, I am very happy that the prins and ians aren't and will not get paid. It leaves more cash flow to pay the globals.
Sun Jan 10 14:17:14 EST 1999
euro: All the 24 brazilian states together owe to the Union some Real 127 billions. And they all say they have more or less difficulties to pay even the interests to the union. Where went all this money? For instance only in the state of Rio de Janeiro the debt to the Union went from 4 bio. in 1994 to 21 bio. in 1998. I start to loose the confidence I had until now in Brazil. Maybe Russia is a better bid. What is your opinion?
Sun Jan 10 15:50:07 EST 1999
helena: You are all dreaming.
Sun Jan 10 15:52:10 EST 1999
wally: euro: my compliments! a newcomer who makes sense.
Sun Jan 10 15:53:40 EST 1999
Liza: I know Chettah. that's what my husband used to say and now i have to support him.
Sun Jan 10 16:52:00 EST 1999
Jackson: Cheat-da: maybe Vennie hits 70 rubles.
Sun Jan 10 16:52:06 EST 1999
Jackson: Cheat-da: maybe Vennie hits 70 rubles.
Sun Jan 10 23:25:58 EST 1999
Spaldolini: helena, please make an interesting comment I may end up dreaming of you...
Sun Jan 10 23:41:59 EST 1999
Liza's husband: From all the BS I see here, I should sell everything in Latin America ( very FEW corporates have EVER defaulted) and buy Russia ??? Give me a break Guys and Girls (or transvis) ! Also Liza where are you ?
Mon Jan 11 00:32:15 EST 1999
CHRISTINA: i will break it down so u guys get it: u r dealing with theifs and therefore credibility and accountability does not exist. i understand that u got hooked to flipping and don't want to give it up. leverage in emerging markets will take a long time to come back. market is a hostage of third world politics. if u like to trade crooks then nothing stops me from calling u morons.
Mon Jan 11 01:12:52 EST 1999
Cowboy Flipper: Thot yu were talkin about them damn RUSSKIS, maybe some wet dream wud be good fur yu Cristina, I coud oblige if needed
Mon Jan 11 04:40:35 EST 1999
Cciano: "Say Hi to the Nanny Bubble", Barton Biggs recommending to overweigh Brazil in July 98 (sic!). And now? Don't shoot the pianist, shoot the analyst! (http://www.talks.com/match1.html)Greetings to all doomsday-prophets!!!
Mon Jan 11 07:26:08 EST 1999
Frank: please abstain from personal insults and remarks
Mon Jan 11 08:42:54 EST 1999
Cciano: Hi Frank, as far as you might refer to my posting >>Don't shoot..<<, I´m not insulting, just quoting another title from that source. But I agree with you. Some participants need urgently to improve their manners. Greetings
Mon Jan 11 08:54:34 EST 1999
JPC: Locals were reassured and weren't panicked into selling real-denominated debt. That should help support markets in the coming days. It's not a problem if locals start pulling out of equities and buying local debt. But if locals sell their debt and exchange reals for dollars, the central bank would have to use its reserves to keep the Brazilian currency stable.
Mon Jan 11 08:56:16 EST 1999
anonymous: JPC: Have you looked at dollar outflows from Brazil. I think that international investors and local are running scared and leaving the country already.
Mon Jan 11 08:57:58 EST 1999
Frank: Hi Cciano,this was not meant to someone specific just a reminder not to keep our board nice aand correct
Mon Jan 11 09:26:32 EST 1999
Fred: <<But I agree with you. Some participants need urgently to improve their manners. Greetings>>This is exactly ny point!! greetings to you too
Mon Jan 11 10:03:02 EST 1999
Pele: It's frustrating ING Barings reduced its recommendation for Brazilian debt on concern about Brazil's deficit problems. They decided to ``underweight" from ``neutral",to reduce Brazil after its benchmark ``C'' bond dropped below 58 on Friday, its lowest since last September.It is now 56.625
Mon Jan 11 10:21:59 EST 1999
CHRISTINA: cowboy flipper u don't have to use sex language to make a point. the only thing i am trying to express is that i see participants trying to talk themselves up. it's not a matter of bullish or bearish it's a matter of us looking in front of our eyes. however, i understand that involvement with markets may make it difficult occasionally. anyway, i will bother u again.
Mon Jan 11 10:29:01 EST 1999
Charles: hi Christina,if you feel offended please complain to daniel@bradynet we have to stop the vulgarities greetings to all
Mon Jan 11 10:37:51 EST 1999
Spanky: 6 points from the 40 handle, GIRLS.. How do you all fell now. Remember, the longest and deepest river in the emerging markets is deNILE. Are you believers yet? Or are you gonna just watch your portfolio burn? Look at dollar/yen.. Acting just like it did when Mexico blew up in 1994/95.. Adios and good luck!!!
Mon Jan 11 10:41:15 EST 1999
Francisco: When does the IMF pull the plug. Don't think they want to keep financing Capital Flight in Brazil. They pulled the plug in Russia, they will do the same in Brazil. We are about 1 month away from default (restructuring, exchange controls, etc.) on the domestic debt.
Mon Jan 11 10:57:38 EST 1999
CHRISTINA: Spanky, in 94/94 dollar/yen moved because of capital flight out of dollars. now it moves because of perception that japan's economy is bottoming. same symptoms, different causes though. that's the beauty of human mind. it can rationalize even the most unrelated things to prove itself right. by the way spanky, i may be doing the same thing, so no offense please. Charles, thank you but i will try to defend myself for the time being.
Mon Jan 11 11:03:05 EST 1999
Spanky: Christina: Japan is not bottoming. esp, it yen strengthens. Japan is getting worse. The dollar is tanking because: 1) not one country in the W. Hemisphere is running a current account surplus: all are big deficit countries; and 2) the Japanese are scrared the U.S. will have monetize Brazil's second bailout. The same symptons that took the dollar to 80 yen in April 1995. So, if you think Japan has bottomed I rec selling your house and buying Japanese equities. Good luck, Christina.
Mon Jan 11 11:17:48 EST 1999
Cowboy: Christina seems lik yu can't take som preasur, no sex words in my comment tu ya ? yu ar a little dellicate ? maybe take the "d" of a that and yu call me ! miiity obliged.
Mon Jan 11 11:35:14 EST 1999
CHRISTINA: ok cowboy, u r right.
Mon Jan 11 11:55:06 EST 1999
Cassandra: Does anyone know the current price of the Eurobonds issued by the State of Minas Gerais, in Brazil?
Mon Jan 11 12:09:29 EST 1999
Cowboy: thank you christa, just pls don't calmee thief or moron again, thks an I mity obliged !
Mon Jan 11 12:13:20 EST 1999
Just OUT: The Governor of the State of PIRIPAPEO just declared a formal morontorium to Brazil Central Government !!!! Hope Carnival comes soon... I do not want another Samba effect.
Mon Jan 11 12:27:50 EST 1999
Reuter: "Brazil offers some relative value now," one trader said. "We saw good clients selling between 60 and 62 (on Brazilian "C" bonds), and they're going to get back in down here."
Mon Jan 11 12:33:06 EST 1999
Daniel: Hey folks, just for the record: it's very childish to go around imitating other people's handles. For that reason the IP addresses will appear by each post for the time being.
Mon Jan 11 13:00:03 EST 1999
CHRISTINA: COWBOY, please, i called theifs just the issuers and morors people who trust them. if for any reason u identify with either side this is your problem. onother thing, choose a language, any language, and try to learn it. finally, lets move on, we are adults.
Mon Jan 11 13:30:18 EST 1999
Dyadya Venya: What is the State of Pirapapeo????!!! in regards to their posted debt moratorium to Fed Brazil?
Mon Jan 11 14:08:27 EST 1999
Carlitos M: Brasil carnaval is coming !! Moratorium is dancing, rhitm and local debt default. They need a big crush to start solving problems like argie 1991, Mexico 94, Bulgaria 96, Russia right now and so on. Keep cash to buy c-bonds at 40 and tbh at 50. Regards.
Mon Jan 11 14:41:59 EST 1999
anonymous: 5 of top 10 Russian banks are officially belly-up. Rubles are blowing in the wind. Will they reconstruct their once great nation? Time will tell.
Mon Jan 11 14:47:09 EST 1999
anonymous: If you all want once, instead of running behind emerging markets and making money with it, doing something else, so go to see the italian movie "la vita e bella". It is worthwhile.
Mon Jan 11 15:31:53 EST 1999
anonymous: Can the person who commented please repeat in English (the comment on the movie "La Vita e Bella")
Mon Jan 11 15:46:47 EST 1999
anonymous: Still no volume still. All markets are rising except EM debt!
Mon Jan 11 16:20:46 EST 1999
anonymous: The volume depends on your shop
Mon Jan 11 16:28:13 EST 1999
Deckard: The volume is very low regarless of your shop.
Mon Jan 11 18:06:24 EST 1999
anonymous: When are we going to see some flow? There are far too many well-paid professionals waiting for business to come their way.
Mon Jan 11 19:41:42 EST 1999
anonymous: How big is the state of PIRAPAPEO and what size is their debt ? Thanks
Mon Jan 11 19:44:21 EST 1999
Big Shop: Market totally illiquid : tried to re buy 100 million in C Bonds at 56 and only got about 5 million.. NEED SOME MORE BAD NEWS !! Who is the Governor of Pirapapeo ?
Mon Jan 11 19:45:15 EST 1999
anonymous: Itamar's girlfriend...
Mon Jan 11 21:32:03 EST 1999
anonymous: test
Mon Jan 11 21:36:22 EST 1999
anonymous: 40 handle (on C Bonds) only a days away, GIRLS!!! How do ya feel? Luv ya, Spanky
Mon Jan 11 22:11:24 EST 1999
anonymous: Benchmark Brazil "C" bonds <BRAZILC=RR> ended 1/2 point lower at 56-1/2, traders said.... 40 handle looks pretty far away Spanky
Mon Jan 11 23:40:27 EST 1999
anonymous: PIRIPAPEO funny !, however Officials from at least two more states -- Rio Grande do Sul and Goias -- said they'd seek debt relief in Brasilia this week.
Tue Jan 12 00:11:21 EST 1999
anonymous: we will be there in a week (40 handle on C Bonds) and you can tell your friends you heard from Spanky first!!
Tue Jan 12 00:11:29 EST 1999
anonymous: we will be there in a week (40 handle on C Bonds) and you can tell your friends you heard from Spanky first!!
Tue Jan 12 01:00:26 EST 1999
anonymous: Why are you afraid to show your ID address Spank (Ralfie) ???
Tue Jan 12 02:53:24 EST 1999
unpourtous: It is said that bad money drives out good. This web site is proof of the existence of a corollary: bad commentary drives out good.
Tue Jan 12 03:34:03 EST 1999
anonymous: please define good commentary.. commentary without a view is absolutely useless. Luv ya. Spanky.
Tue Jan 12 03:56:14 EST 1999
Cciano: Unpourtous: We should just ignore the bad ones and enjoy the good ones. By the way: Ralfies competitor, the well known platow-briefe, requires registration and emails you a special IDnumber to enter their forum. Imagine why. It's funny to see the biggest mouths with smallest guts (To whom it concerns: No handle, no guts, no GLORY!!!)
Tue Jan 12 04:46:08 EST 1999
E.Mielke: Das Problem mit diesen Trockenschwimmern is immer,viel Geschwätz aber kein Geld für Bonds,weder long noch short. Besides bigmouthing there is nothing.
Tue Jan 12 05:05:49 EST 1999
anonymous: <<GIRLS!!! How do ya feel? Luv ya, Spanky>> personal remarks are not welcome,greetings,Grüsse
Tue Jan 12 05:37:06 EST 1999
anonymous: TO DANIEL & CO: Well done.................. but it is not over,you have to continue checking your board...... Greetings
Tue Jan 12 05:48:49 EST 1999
Cciano: Hallo Erich, you sound familiar to me, are you back from off with a new handle? Grüsse
Tue Jan 12 05:52:46 EST 1999
anonymous: Hallo Freund,lass uns erstmal wieder etwas Ordnung in unser armes BradyNet Message board bringen. Grüsse aus der Hauptstadt. Brazil prices fell much less than I expected.... Grüsse aus der Hauptstadt.
Tue Jan 12 10:31:10 EST 1999
Cheetah: Spanky!!! You are "only" 5 7/8 points away from your 40 handle offer !! Maybe the Governor of Piripapeo will help you OR maybe all the Governor's will help Cardozo.... But Veni DCB's well off your projections of doom and gloom... stop trading so much and play some golf, enjoy life !!
Tue Jan 12 11:23:01 EST 1999
anonymous: To Daniel: Congrats! You are probably the only website in the world that has resorted to censorship. Bradynet.com should change its name to FacistNet.com. We are surprised you caved into the WINERS are the site. Manybe just Wally. Sincerely, Wally
Tue Jan 12 11:28:56 EST 1999
anonymous: Moving toward 40 handle on C Bonds, GIRLIE MEN!!! And there ain't no stoppin' it.. I am leaving on a slow train to 40!! Luv ya all, Spanky
Tue Jan 12 11:51:50 EST 1999
anonymous: luv u 2, spanky wanky
Tue Jan 12 12:14:07 EST 1999
anonymous: Why do I have this funny feeling we may see a 40 handle today on C Bonds? Maybe because the U.S. cracks? Hang on, BOYZZZZZZZZZZZ.. Luv ya, Spanky
Tue Jan 12 12:53:46 EST 1999
anonymous: Spanky is short and he(she) is excited... How interesting and creative!!! What an elevating image!!!
Tue Jan 12 13:10:52 EST 1999
anonymous: Anon.. you don't know if i am short or long.. it don't matter.. C Bonds are going lower and the Brazilians should be looking to protect their poor and not the speculators. That is a clue, my friend.. The political winds, they are a changing!!!.. Luv ya, Spanky.
Tue Jan 12 13:37:11 EST 1999
anonymous: So what if ALL of Brazil's states don't pay the federal gov. Aren't they due to receive MORE from the Fed.Gov than what they owe ???
Tue Jan 12 13:54:12 EST 1999
anonymous: cheat-da: how far from the 40 handle, now? Luv ya, Spanky.
Tue Jan 12 14:14:36 EST 1999
wally: inspite of all bad news: no 40 handle for c-bond in sight. as of now this is only wishful thinking (i too wish to see it).
Tue Jan 12 14:17:58 EST 1999
anonymous: spanky, and if c bond hits the 40 handle, will you make money on it or only get your rocks off?
Tue Jan 12 14:21:57 EST 1999
anonymous: yea, but wally. we are more than half way there than when we began this debate before Christmas. Don't the you think the TREND is my FRIEND? Luv ya, Spanky.
Tue Jan 12 14:24:33 EST 1999
anonymous: Anon. my pleasure is watching bad traders like you join the unemployment line. Luv ya, SPANK THE BID
Tue Jan 12 14:32:11 EST 1999
vinicius: I sold today my Brazil 2027, 10.125% at 59.75% and bought Russia 2018, 11% for 24.5%. Let's hope.
Tue Jan 12 14:38:47 EST 1999
anonymous: You're even more twisted than I thought. bizare kind of pleasure you feel, maybe some bad childhood experience?
Tue Jan 12 14:48:08 EST 1999
anonymous: yea, call my shrink.. and then call your banker....
Tue Jan 12 16:11:50 EST 1999
Daniel: Check out the new US Treasuries section in the BradyNet Newslink... remember, the USA was an emerging market too once!
Tue Jan 12 16:14:47 EST 1999
anonymous: Thanks, Daniel.
Tue Jan 12 16:18:23 EST 1999
anonymous: Ouch!!!! 53 1/2 prints... 3 3/4 from the 40 handle on C bonds, GIRLS.... REPEAT AFTER ME: I now believe in SPANKY!!!!!!!
Tue Jan 12 17:27:09 EST 1999
anonymous: Hey guys, let's clean up this site and make it a true intellectual discourse.
Tue Jan 12 17:27:44 EST 1999
anonymous: Hey guys, let's clean up this site and make it a true intellectual discourse.
Tue Jan 12 17:32:01 EST 1999
JB: Spanky: Do you get pleasure by reminding everyone you were right 1 month ago in your C's prediction. OK man, you are a genius, a master of intelligence, an incredible talented individual !. Now lets move on....what is the next prediction?.
Tue Jan 12 17:49:05 EST 1999
anonymous: Spanky, how many times u have to state in a chat room that u r bearish in order to believe u r a hot shot trader? R u that insecure? If u r a real trader my friend u wouldn't do that 10 times a day.
Tue Jan 12 18:04:22 EST 1999
anonymous: Its easy to tell all of you that you were wrong because you continue to ignore the facts. I remember stupid comments like "govts don't go bankrupt" or "latins are different than russians" or even "you must be short if you say the market is going down". Where are you Cheetah, Alex, etc...
Tue Jan 12 18:17:15 EST 1999
spadolini: Like Paul C. Martin 1988.
Tue Jan 12 18:26:32 EST 1999
anonymous: o.k. boyz.. i resign... i have won.. u will never here from spanky again.. it's your loss.. you could have made mucho bucks if you listened.....it's been fun.... and i will see you all selling apples on the street.....TTFN, SPANKY
Tue Jan 12 18:50:12 EST 1999
anonymous: and your name tomorrow? you like FINAL CRASHER e.g.?
Tue Jan 12 18:53:41 EST 1999
anonymous: Let'd do something productive and debate what Brazil's most likely outcome is. Some alternatives: 1)IMF accelerates disbursements; 2)Deval; 3)No deval but stronger capital controls; 4)Some sort of local debt restructuring. I believe that the IMF will choose (wrongly) to throw money at the problem and postpone yet once more the moment of truth. Let's hear it. SHYLOCK
Tue Jan 12 20:56:31 EST 1999
anonymous: Spanky my girl, remember the gain ain't over until you cover, you have not won ... yet - Still 4 points away from a 40 offer.. and Veni bonds ??? holding Up quite well !! Viva Chavez and Viva all the OIL recomendations coming out of Wall St., TQM CHEETAH
Tue Jan 12 21:04:10 EST 1999
anonymous: Vinicius I would recommend you stick to some Roman bonds, your follies outside of the empire lack vision and common sense... Brazil globals will be 10 points higher after Capital Controls are established = MUCH TIGHTER CAPITAL CONTROLS. (as presented today by the Governor of PIRAPAPEO to Cardozo... Latins WILL ALWAYS BE quite different from the conniving decietfull russkis.
Tue Jan 12 21:22:15 EST 1999
anonymous: Recovery seems very reasonable from these levels, there is good value in many Brazilean assets. Additionally there seems to be a de-coupling of other Latins from the volatility in Brazil. THIS IS THE MOMENTUM TO BUY>>> EL ORACULO
Tue Jan 12 21:23:34 EST 1999
clota: what are the chances of brazil rescheduling its real debt into USD, at much lower rates, with a "Bonex Plan"...?
Tue Jan 12 23:18:20 EST 1999
anonymous: clota: very, very, very high. I am sure the IMF is working on an alternative "bail-in" plan. Good luck.
Tue Jan 12 23:51:58 EST 1999
anonymous: clota. I don't think they will restructure. They need to put on exchange controls and burn the debt away through inflation. Brazil currently has way too much debt. Restructuring into dollars will hurt the country's external creditworthiness.
Wed Jan 13 01:16:43 EST 1999
anonymous: Check out this new book, "Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Chat Rooms"
Wed Jan 13 02:13:44 EST 1999
anonymous: Deustchland are you in yet? How are C Bonds going to open. Thanks.
Wed Jan 13 03:12:14 EST 1999
anonymous: Good Morning Germany! Any indication on C Bonds?????????
Wed Jan 13 04:08:23 EST 1999
prin: C-bond is opening 51.5/53 handle, rumours that Gustavo Franco is going to resign as chairman of CB...
Wed Jan 13 04:50:31 EST 1999
anonymous: <<01-12-99 vinicius: (199.174.251.242) I sold today my Brazil 2027, 10.125% at 59.75% and bought Russia 2018, 11% for 24.5%. Let's hope.>>THAT WAS A VERY GOOD IDEA,I SAID SOME WEEKS AGO;TOO BULLISH ON SURAMs AND TOO BEARISH ON EASTEUROPE, regards Fred
Wed Jan 13 05:06:46 EST 1999
prin: Not bad idea, yesterday the only one country was up... Russia
Wed Jan 13 05:32:27 EST 1999
anonymous: hi PRIN,this autumn rallye was too fast and too high,don't buy SurAmericans under 20%-25% yield,Grüsse
Wed Jan 13 05:43:47 EST 1999
anonymous: "es gibt viel schwierige situationen in der welt, über die man am sichersten hinwegkommt, wenn man sie leicht und oberflächlich anpackt, wenn man darüber hinwegrutscht und nicht tief hinein- tritt." (Michel de Montaigne, Les Essais)
Wed Jan 13 06:10:49 EST 1999
anonymous: gustavo franco HAS resigned. 12h cet.
Wed Jan 13 06:24:35 EST 1999
anonymous: the real has been devaluated. Now: 1,20-1,32 $, before 1,12-1,22.
Wed Jan 13 06:25:25 EST 1999
wally: real bandwith changed 1.22>1.32 (defacto devaluation) but i don't see the famous '40 handle' yet.
Wed Jan 13 06:32:18 EST 1999
prin: Look at Mex peso was paid at 10.78 this morning all time high...
Wed Jan 13 06:45:49 EST 1999
prin: New word "reorientation" - devaluation (engl.)
Wed Jan 13 06:45:59 EST 1999
Fred: <<"es gibt viel schwierige situationen in der welt, über die man am sichersten hinwegkommt, wenn man sie leicht und oberflächlich anpackt, wenn man darüber hinwegrutscht und nicht tief hinein- tritt." (Michel de Montaigne, Les Essais)>>richtig,und wenn man sich nicht selbst bemitleidet sollte mal was schiefgehen,no selfpity if something goes wrong,greetings
Wed Jan 13 06:54:36 EST 1999
optimist: Brasil devaluing?! Is that the implication of fx reorientation policy just proclaimed?
Wed Jan 13 07:10:10 EST 1999
anonymous: : it looks like these Vodoo Boys messed up really good,will take a long time to get investors confidence back,finance isn't their specialty,better stick with futbol and carnival
Wed Jan 13 07:25:16 EST 1999
anonymous: Spanky: U R DA MAN. Deckard
Wed Jan 13 07:25:42 EST 1999
anonymous: Spanky: U R DA MAN. Deckard
Wed Jan 13 07:33:40 EST 1999
anonymous: nicht ganz,denn er hat nur gesabbert,für short-gehen hatte er zuviel Angst,Spanky was only talking about the price drop,but was too afraid going short,rgds Karl Eduard v. Schnitzler
Wed Jan 13 07:48:19 EST 1999
anonymous: "This probably means the real was actually devalued by nine percent because the market will probably seek a new foreign exchange level around there."
Wed Jan 13 07:57:06 EST 1999
I wont give up my day job...: So we were singing "Bye bye Mr Franco guy, sold my reais Brazileros, and started to cry And those good old boys long C's and EI's singing this'll be the day that I die...." Did you write the book of debt? And do you believe in the IMF? Oh what was it that Rubin Said? The day the real died!
Wed Jan 13 08:01:50 EST 1999
anonymous: but you were not short,posting day and night and that was it...
Wed Jan 13 08:05:26 EST 1999
anonymous: The Grand Historian comments: How extreme is the poison of vengeance among men! (Sun Tzu)
Wed Jan 13 08:09:19 EST 1999
anonymous: ....and yesterdays losers are todays winners,but also the other way around,ours is a risky business,everybody knows that greetings Fayez
Wed Jan 13 08:17:02 EST 1999
anonymous: Erich und Karl-Eduard, Normannenstrasse 75 ist KEINE gute Adresse. Wie wärs mit Dahlem, Wannsee oder Zehlendorf? Grüsse aus dem Schwarzen Kanal!
Wed Jan 13 08:28:40 EST 1999
anonymous: Wir sitzen überall,aufgrund der angespannten Devisenlage müssen wir uns auch in den EM Bonds betätigen,Grüsse aus der Hauptstadt
Wed Jan 13 08:49:10 EST 1999
anonymous: Es waren früher die Aussenhandelsbank der UdSSR sowie die DDR Staatsbank bekannt für gigantische Fehlspekulationen in den 70\80 Jahren,was den Zusammenbruch des maroden Sozialismus stark beschleunigt hat.
Wed Jan 13 08:56:30 EST 1999
anonymous: Here comes the FX Domino effect. MEXICO'S PESO WEAKENS SHARPLY TO 11.030/11.113 IN PREOPEN BIDS , COLOMBIA PESO DROPS TO NEW ALL-TIME LOW ,..
Wed Jan 13 09:22:32 EST 1999
anonymous: you can laugh as much as you want,but its time to think about buying,rgds.Alex

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