Color of the Market Archive, Page #21
Color of the Market A R C H I V E 

1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   [21]   22   23

The Color of the Market has been an online meeting place for people interested in emerging market debt since 1996, and has undergone many changes in that time. We have discovered an old archive of Color of the Market messages, covering 5 months starting in late 1998. For the benefit of both old and new Bradynetters, we present this archive untouched.

Note: Back in these days, the forum software was greatly different than the Color of the Market that we are now accustomed to. Without the requirement of registration, the forum began to attract disrupters who would engage in vulgarities, name-calling, impersonation of users, and other childish hijinks. But if you can wade through the nonsense, some of the comments herein are historic, and prophetic.

Enjoy,
IDEAGlobal/BradyNet Staff

Mon Apr 26 20:38:30 EDT 1999
¤ wally ¤: <space station> no way. the secret reserves are on the enterprise with captain jean-luc picard and klingon guards.
Mon Apr 26 20:43:58 EDT 1999
anonymous: http://www.ft.com/hippocampus/qbbd22.htm I think we are screwed.
Mon Apr 26 20:45:55 EDT 1999
anonymous: When I hear the Russians say they will honor their post-Soviet debt, it kind of reminds me of Yeltsin saying the Ruble wouldn't be devalued. This is the only market that listens to politicians.
Mon Apr 26 22:11:10 EDT 1999
¤ wally ¤: <I think we are screwed> what's the panic? FT just carries the old story (camdessus, rubin, fischer). this is getting now VERY boring.
Mon Apr 26 22:17:21 EDT 1999
anonymous: message from rosdelegatsion to towarishtshi amerikanski. no khave good lewinkys in wushingtonn. khave rrequest to send stante pede via aeroflot several petrovnas, kalashnikovkayas and milnerovas to perrforrm in style and not be stupid and spoil dress with dna.
Mon Apr 26 22:23:04 EDT 1999
¤ wally ¤: ivan: this not MOCKBA. there is an old tradition in washington. they don't inhale!
Mon Apr 26 22:30:43 EDT 1999
¤ wally ¤: Rescheduling for emerging markets looms By Edward Luce, Capital Markets Editor (Financial TIMES). getting scared by journalists who are like all of us trying to make a living? read the article word by word. nothing but a collection of newswire data and then an (i admit) elegant wrapup into a slightly different package.
Mon Apr 26 22:35:46 EDT 1999
anonymous: WASHINGTON, April 26 (Reuters) - German Finance Minster Hans Eichel said on Monday Russia's debt would not be written off because Russia was not a developing country. "There is no question of Russian debt being written off," Eichel told a news conference. Bundesbank President Hans Tietmeyer said he expected the International Monetary Fund and Russia to reach a credit agreement in the foreseeable future. << WALLY, NO WONDER YOUR GERMAN COMRADES SUPPORT THE RUSSIANS PAYING THE EUROBONDS. THAT'S BECAUSE THEY AIN'T GONNA GIVE 'EM ANY DEBT FORGIVENESS. LIKE THEY CAN PAY!
Mon Apr 26 22:38:59 EDT 1999
anonymous: http://www.swissinfo.org/eng/en_i_news.html?id=12776
Mon Apr 26 22:47:31 EDT 1999
¤ wally ¤: <100,000 florins and tulip scam> was fun doing some research. extrapolating the price of a milch-cow with calf (base mid 17th century) the afore mentioned sum is equal to usd 34.5 million ± 20 error margin. conclusion: the figure is equal to the main product of the calf's father (bullshit).
Mon Apr 26 22:48:26 EDT 1999
anonymous: G7 Statement on Russia: Russia 10. We met with representatives of the Russian Federation to discuss recent developments in Russia. We remain concerned about the country's ongoing financial and macroeconomic instability. Russia's return to macroeconomic stability and growth is possible only in the context of a viable fiscal program, significant improvement in government revenues, and progress in institutional and structural reforms. We welcomed the progress Russia has made in its dialogue with the IMF, and we urge the Russian authorities to take all necessary steps to reach agreement on, and effectively implement, a credible economic program. We reiterated that such an IMF agreement is a precondition for Paris Club consideration of any rescheduling of Russia's debt. http://www.treas.gov/press/releases/pr4006.htm
Mon Apr 26 22:49:17 EDT 1999
anonymous: During my long illustrious foreseeing existence, I have had many... none called as such - lewinsky ? Perhaps queen you may kneel before me and perform such as I watch the markets tumble...as this is my prediction - correction time. Nostradamus
Mon Apr 26 22:53:35 EDT 1999
¤ wally ¤: <Hans Eichel> he is right. NO debt forgiveness, but his english was not good enough to explain that germany expects repayment of it's share of paris club russian debt in the 3rd millennium.
Mon Apr 26 22:55:55 EDT 1999
anonymous: Wally, had you ever heard of the Tuilp mania?
Mon Apr 26 22:58:24 EDT 1999
¤ wally ¤: nostradamus: you disappoint. i recall you predicted the big crash for april 8 in 'colour of the market'. next time be more cautious and do not publish exact dates.
Mon Apr 26 23:00:12 EDT 1999
¤ wally ¤: <Tuilp mania> no, only tulip mania. is tuilp something i should know?
Mon Apr 26 23:04:55 EDT 1999
anonymous: who is chico?????
Mon Apr 26 23:06:00 EDT 1999
¤ wally ¤: read the news. go brazil+francisco lopes.
Mon Apr 26 23:06:43 EDT 1999
anonymous: Primakov Told to Choose Between Duma and Yeltsin COMBINED REPORTS Reuters, AP The Kremlin on Monday continued its thinly veiled criticism of Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov, with a top staffer saying Primakov was President Boris Yeltsin's "strategic partner" - but warning Primakov about his good relations with the opposition-run State Duma. http://www.moscowtimes.ru/27-Apr-1999/stories/story7.html
Mon Apr 26 23:08:31 EDT 1999
anonymous: Sounds like we are coming to close to the showdown in Moscow. This is why IMF/WB very cautious and going to backload disbursements.
Mon Apr 26 23:09:41 EDT 1999
¤ wally ¤: over and out. will try to find STAR-TREK on one of the channels.
Mon Apr 26 23:11:18 EDT 1999
anonymous: Berezovsky Charged After Questioning By Andrei Zolotov Staff Writer Controversial tycoon Boris Berezovsky left the hospital Monday to face questioning by prosecutors, who officially notified him of three criminal charges connected with alleged corrupt business dealings. Berezovsky, who denounced the charges as a political attack by Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov, signed a promise not to leave Moscow for the duration of the investigation without permission. He vowed to immediately appeal the travel ban and said he would prove his innocence. http://www.moscowtimes.ru/27-Apr-1999/stories/story8.html
Mon Apr 26 23:13:18 EDT 1999
anonymous: <my long illustrious foreseeing> my ass. why are you in BRADYNET and not on your own island in the South Pacific??????
Mon Apr 26 23:21:28 EDT 1999
anonymous: zadornov says russia has no plans to restructure eurobonds
Mon Apr 26 23:27:27 EDT 1999
anonymous: erman Finance Minster Hans Eichel said on Monday Russia's debt would not be written off because Russia was not a developing country.
Mon Apr 26 23:34:11 EDT 1999
anonymous: 04-26-99 Anonymous: zadornov says russia has no plans to restructure eurobonds << Yelstin said he had no plans to devalue the Ruble! We shall see.
Mon Apr 26 23:38:17 EDT 1999
anonymous: 04/26 20:12 Russia sees early IMF deal, G7 cautious on policy By Lida Poletz WASHINGTON, April 26 (Reuters) - Russia's finance minister on Monday predicted an early deal with the International Monetary Fund while the Group of Seven industrialized countries said it remained worried about economic conditions there. <<< SOUNDS LIKE THE RUSSIANS A LITTLE BIT TO OPTIMISTIC.
Mon Apr 26 23:38:41 EDT 1999
anonymous: http://www.bradynet.com/bbs/askbradynet/100105-0.html
Mon Apr 26 23:39:37 EDT 1999
anonymous: http://www.bradynet.com/bbs/whatsnew/
Mon Apr 26 23:52:06 EDT 1999
anonymous: Hey Daniel, tell your boss to start an internet trading of emerging market bonds. you guyz could make a killing. i would love to spank Wally's and Cheetah's bid!
Tue Apr 27 00:06:39 EDT 1999
anonymous: what mean spank wally and cheetah? you hurt them? why? think they good man. tofu
Tue Apr 27 00:09:56 EDT 1999
anonymous: good nite. i must sleep lest i turn into a pumpkin. must prepare for sell-off.
Tue Apr 27 00:11:46 EDT 1999
anonymous: all hell lose on bradynet in the early morning?! gnom vo zueri
Tue Apr 27 00:12:54 EDT 1999
anonymous: shy selloff. somthing bad happen? please tell. tofu
Tue Apr 27 00:15:38 EDT 1999
anonymous: to tofu, these people all very much crazy. want to dominate you and me. no listen. follow your estomaco. gnom vo zueri
Tue Apr 27 00:17:20 EDT 1999
anonymous: i no like to much of this. make my head turn. but worry. tofu
Tue Apr 27 00:19:24 EDT 1999
anonymous: you stay with tranquilidad tofu. no bad things happen today. you only honest hombre here! gnom vo zueri
Tue Apr 27 00:22:01 EDT 1999
anonymous: ¡todos putas y maricones!
Tue Apr 27 00:22:46 EDT 1999
anonymous: ¡si, y chulos y cabrones!
Tue Apr 27 00:35:03 EDT 1999
anonymous: i see now bad news. apache flyer crash in albanya. but why bad for investor? tofu
Tue Apr 27 03:13:18 EDT 1999
anonymous: Los que insultan en español son hijos de la gran madre. ¡Que Spanky os joda! José Mª A.
Tue Apr 27 03:58:01 EDT 1999
anonymous: 04-27-99 Anonymous: ¡si, y chulos y cabrones! 04-27-99 Anonymous: ¡todos putas y maricones! POVRESITO LOCO
Tue Apr 27 06:29:03 EDT 1999
anonymous: RF 28'BID/ASK PLEASE?Tnx.
Tue Apr 27 07:25:35 EDT 1999
anonymous: http://www.brama.com/eastern-economist/index.html news from our beloved Ukr.rgds.Fred
Tue Apr 27 09:04:10 EDT 1999
anonymous: ? Updating?
Tue Apr 27 09:05:12 EDT 1999
anonymous: ? Updating?
Tue Apr 27 09:28:36 EDT 1999
anonymous: 44.50
Tue Apr 27 09:31:37 EDT 1999
anonymous: I think the market did not have enough time yesterday to digest the news that the former president of the Brazilian Central Bank was arrested.
Tue Apr 27 09:43:18 EDT 1999
anonymous: ouch!!!!!
Tue Apr 27 09:44:14 EDT 1999
anonymous: ouch??????
Tue Apr 27 09:44:45 EDT 1999
anonymous: We need to pay them $4 billion this year and ... we think that it is the same amount -- $4 billion -- that should be provided this year," Gerashchenko told reporters at the IMF headquarters in Washington. "With this amount we will be able to pay what we are due to pay to the fund in 1999."
Tue Apr 27 09:48:22 EDT 1999
¤ wally ¤: <former cb president arrested> the market just digests with braz bonds loosing ¼-½ point. this reaction shows the paranoia of the market, traders and investors.
Tue Apr 27 09:50:44 EDT 1999
¤ wally ¤: <$4 billion this year> rumour has it that it will be less than $2 billion. as i said RUMOUR.
Tue Apr 27 09:58:04 EDT 1999
anonymous: I do not deal in rumours, negotiations are for up to 10 billion, but the final conditional amount will be $6 BB. Nostradamus
Tue Apr 27 10:07:40 EDT 1999
¤ wally ¤: nostradamus: what happened to you? converted overnight to be an optimist? $6 bil would be excellent news for the market.
Tue Apr 27 10:13:07 EDT 1999
optimist: eltsin sacked vice prime minister Vadim Goustov. Experts consider it a sign of growing contradiction between Primakov and eltsin. Primakov previously said he was not going to give up any of his vice prime-ministers as a concession to President
Tue Apr 27 10:27:38 EDT 1999
Savonarola: The market will probably react negatively to a "just $4bn deal" as that amount is already expected (the usual "sell with the news"). I personlly believe it will be excellent news and after a while Russian Euros will rally 20 point by the time of the next coupon payments. A few months ago, the "experts", were shouting Default! while their bodies in the desks were shorting the paper at 25%. When the IMF deal is signed, the experts will cry...Not enough!! and the desks will short again...digging their own graves! The fact is that the Russians have shown a very clever strategy. Each debt is dealt separately with each creditr. IMF with IMF, WB with WB, LC with LC and PC with PC. Euros they pay and Minfins is the big question mark although probably TR 6 and Tr7 might soon be a nice switch out of some Euros....
Tue Apr 27 10:49:02 EDT 1999
¤ wally ¤: savonarola: <TR 6 and Tr7 might soon be a nice switch> i am thinking and thinking and thinking the same but can't make up my mind.
Tue Apr 27 10:51:53 EDT 1999
¤ wally ¤: <Soros said late last week with this crisis over: "Now we can look for the next one.">
Tue Apr 27 11:16:22 EDT 1999
¤ wally ¤: General Klaus Naumann, who commands NATO's Military Committee, said on Monday that NATO had no authority to use force to stop oil shipments to Yugoslavia. Canadian Defence Minister Art Eggleton said later on Monday that NATO had no intention of mounting a naval blockade against Russian oil shipments to Yugoslavia. nato "muffensausen".
Tue Apr 27 11:25:41 EDT 1999
anonymous: http://www.bradynet.com/bbs/brazil/100033-0.html BRAZIL STATE BANK TO SWAP NEW 10-YEAR BONDS FOR CORPORATE DEBT
Tue Apr 27 11:44:23 EDT 1999
anonymous: http://www.russiatoday.com/ news from Russia
Tue Apr 27 12:38:46 EDT 1999
anonymous: The Group of 10 leading industrialized countries is examining ways to boost private sector involvement in crisis management and has discussed new bond contracts terms which would it easier to restructure debt if things go wrong, a G10 communique said. "Ministers and governors discussed...modifying the terms of bond contracts to facilitate cooperative refinancing or restructuring negotiations during crises,"
Tue Apr 27 12:55:31 EDT 1999
Omar: "NEW BOND CONTRACTS" is the key word !, if new Eurobonds were to be issued with scaled down provisions ala IMF & Co. specs, wouldn't then "old" Eurobonds with current provisions be automatically priced at a premium ?. All comments welcome.
Tue Apr 27 13:00:22 EDT 1999
anonymous: Each debt is dealt separately with each creditr. IMF with IMF, WB with WB, LC with LC and PC with PC. Eu<< SARVIE, THE FACT IS THEY CAN'T PAY. RESERVES ARE DECLINING AND UNLESS THEIR IS A CREDIBLE ECONOMIC AND FISCAL PROGRAM -- AS THE G7 STATED IN MONDAY'S COMMIQUE -- RUSSIA WILL DEFAULT ON EUROBONDS. NOW WE HAVE PARLIMENTARY ELECTIONS IN THE FALL, WHICH WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR THE FISCAL ADJUSTMENT. JUST BECAUSE THE PRICE IS UP DOESN'T MEAN FUNDAMENTALS HAVE IMPROVED. AND LOOK AT THE LOCAL POLITICS! YOUR AND ROBIN WILLIAMS STARRING IN, "WHAT DREAMS ARE MADE OF"
Tue Apr 27 13:02:45 EDT 1999
anonymous: We're very close on our program," Wolfensohn told reporters at the IMF spring meeting. "I think we will reach agreement on the Bank program, which is a three-part program on coal, social protection and structural adjustment."
Tue Apr 27 13:02:47 EDT 1999
anonymous: why do panic prophets use CAPS ONLY ??? - because their words have no substance, they need to scream to be heard.....
Tue Apr 27 13:04:45 EDT 1999
anonymous: Interesting new tactic G7 is taking: Do not talk about "bailing investors in" but don't let the IMF disburse excess funds to cover bond payments. The key will be Russia: a deal that is less than 4.5 bn over 12 months or 8 bn for 18 months will signal pressure to stop Eurobond payments. Nato is using the same strategy with Russia on Balkans War: Keep them engage but step the bombing. At best cynical, at worst dangerous.
Tue Apr 27 13:10:27 EDT 1999
anonymous: 04/27 06:48 IMF seen giving Russia $1.7-2.5 bln - govt source MOSCOW, April 27 (Reuters) - Russia is likely to receive only $1.7 billion to $2.5 billion from the International Monetary Fund this year, rather than the $4.5 billion needed to cover maturing debts to the Fund, a government source said on Tuesday. Foreign cash reserves could be skimmed down to a few billion dollars because the first IMF tranche could arrive at the end of June, after major Eurobond and other foreign debt payments are due, he told Reuters.<< WALLY, DIDN'T I TELL YOU THIS IS WHAT IS GOING ON? "The possibility we shall get the money is really very high, but it may arrive at the end of June," he said. "We are in a tough spot.
Tue Apr 27 13:10:37 EDT 1999
anonymous: Omar is right,and Dummy with CAPITAL LETTERS is wrong.rgds.Fred
Tue Apr 27 13:13:13 EDT 1999
anonymous: Bln.$1.7-$2.5 is enough to pay the interest on the EUROs,they will never let Russia default.Doomsayers are only jealous because their shorts went to the shitters.
Tue Apr 27 13:13:59 EDT 1999
anonymous: WALLY, FROM YESTERDAY. CHANCE OF DEFAULT HAS INCREASED: 04-26-99 Anonymous: "We hope the agreement will be concluded in the near future. But it is still not clear when the board meeting will take place," he was quoted as saying by the Interfax news agency. The board is to decide on resuming financial aid to Russia. "The board is to meet in early June at the earliest," Mozhin said. He said there was a list of steps Russia was to take before the aid was disbursed. "It will depend on how quickly Russia can fulfill them. But some of the steps require parliamentary approval, and it is not clear whether they can be accomplished swiftly," he added. <<< WALLY, PREPARE FOR A SHARP DROP IN RUSSIA'S RESERVES, WHICH I THINK SENDS EUROBONDS INTO THE TOILET. THE TIMING OF DISBURSEMENT WILL BE LINKED TO RUSSIA TAKING SOME PRELIMINARY ACTION AND THEY HAVE ABOUT $3 BN IN PAYMENTS THIS QUARTER . THAT WILL TAKE USUABLE RESERVES DOWN TO ABOUT $3 BN. THIS IS CUTTING IT PRETTY CLOSE. SELL ON THE ANNOUNCEMENT OF DEAL, THAT IS, IF YOU HAVE A CHANCE. 0
Tue Apr 27 13:15:28 EDT 1999
anonymous: Wally: from yesterday. Default risk has increased! 04-26-99 Anonymous: "We hope the agreement will be concluded in the near future. But it is still not clear when the board meeting will take place," he was quoted as saying by the Interfax news agency. The board is to decide on resuming financial aid to Russia. "The board is to meet in early June at the earliest," Mozhin said. He said there was a list of steps Russia was to take before the aid was disbursed. "It will depend on how quickly Russia can fulfill them. But some of the steps require parliamentary approval, and it is not clear whether they can be accomplished swiftly," he added. <<< WALLY, PREPARE FOR A SHARP DROP IN RUSSIA'S RESERVES, WHICH I THINK SENDS EUROBONDS INTO THE TOILET. THE TIMING OF DISBURSEMENT WILL BE LINKED TO RUSSIA TAKING SOME PRELIMINARY ACTION AND THEY HAVE ABOUT $3 BN IN PAYMENTS THIS QUARTER . THAT WILL TAKE USUABLE RESERVES DOWN TO ABOUT $3 BN. THIS IS CUTTING IT PRETTY CLOSE. SELL ON THE ANNOUNCEMENT OF DEAL, THAT IS, IF YOU HAVE A CHANCE.
Tue Apr 27 13:15:52 EDT 1999
anonymous: Wally: from yesterday. Default risk has increased! 04-26-99 Anonymous: "We hope the agreement will be concluded in the near future. But it is still not clear when the board meeting will take place," he was quoted as saying by the Interfax news agency. ... <<< WALLY, PREPARE FOR A SHARP DROP IN RUSSIA'S RESERVES, WHICH I THINK SENDS EUROBONDS INTO THE TOILET. THE TIMING OF DISBURSEMENT WILL BE LINKED TO RUSSIA TAKING SOME PRELIMINARY ACTION AND THEY HAVE ABOUT $3 BN IN PAYMENTS THIS QUARTER . THAT WILL TAKE USUABLE RESERVES DOWN TO ABOUT $3 BN. THIS IS CUTTING IT PRETTY CLOSE. SELL ON THE ANNOUNCEMENT OF DEAL, THAT IS, IF YOU HAVE A CHANCE.
Tue Apr 27 13:18:03 EDT 1999
anonymous: 04-27-99 Anonymous: Bln.$1.7-$2.5 is enough to pay the interest on the EUROs,they will never let Russia default.Doomsayers are only jealous because their shorts went to the shitters. << IF THEY USE THE MONEY TO PAY THE EUROBONDS, HOW THE HELL ARE THEY GOING TO PAY THE IMF? THE DISBURSEMENT IS NOT EVEN HALF OF WHAT THEY OWE TO THE FUND. WHERE ARE YOU GETTING YOU DOPE?
Tue Apr 27 13:24:19 EDT 1999
anonymous: CAN'T UNDERSTAND,you don't own any RusFed,SO?WHY ARE YOU SO NERVOUS?WHY ALL YOU FUZZ?OR DID YOU SHORT REALLY WENT SOUR??
Tue Apr 27 13:26:59 EDT 1999
anonymous: If RussianFederation bonds weren't risky investments,the price be 150 instead 44,use your brain,man.
Tue Apr 27 13:35:27 EDT 1999
anonymous: If Russia was going to default in August 1998, Russian '28's would not have been at 90 in July of 1998!
Tue Apr 27 13:35:42 EDT 1999
anonymous: Leider hat er keins,UNSER dummer kleiner Ralfie.Our Ralfie lacks some brains.rgds.Fred
Tue Apr 27 13:37:20 EDT 1999
anonymous: 04-27-99 Anonymous: If Russia was going to default in August 1998, Russian '28's would not have been at 90 in July of 1998! WRONG,FRIEND, THE CRASH CAME WITHIN DAYS AND UNPREDICTABLE
Tue Apr 27 13:50:13 EDT 1999
anonymous: Excuse me but Ralfie/Spanky/CAPITAL LETTERS does have lots of brains, but they're just like his arguments: completely full of sh...........t
Tue Apr 27 13:51:45 EDT 1999
anonymous: respond with analysis, not insults.
Tue Apr 27 13:54:26 EDT 1999
anonymous: I can't understand this recent discussion.We are dealing with EMBonds,kind of risky investments,and some participants act as if they were looking for Bonds guaranteed by all the G7 fin.secs.If you find EMBonds too unsafe,buy others,where is the problem???
Tue Apr 27 13:57:40 EDT 1999
Savonarola: Anon, just came from Moscow.. the political situation there is fine, no worse no better than anywhere else..plus things from the inisde look completely different..now everybody buys russian, which is good, instead of importing. The virtual economy is as virtual as ever, and the country as usual depends on commodities, as Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, Veni, Nigeria, Ecuador, Uruguay, etc....all of them do. The euros were orphans for several months and now are finding a home, that is why they go up. The level of reserves I told you twice already, is irrelevant because Russia has a floating FX system...I repeat FLOATING... what matters is the level of non-inflationary Roubles the Minfin can collect to buy the plenty of dollars the economy generates through exports. The fact is simple there are $15 billion Euros...ONLY....compare that number with Argie/Veni/Brazil...buy scarcity...and if cheap the better..
Tue Apr 27 14:04:55 EDT 1999
anonymous: Sarvie: If reserves don't matter, why is Russia defaulting on MinFins and begging for Fund for money?
Tue Apr 27 14:06:25 EDT 1999
anonymous: Analysis:What we all are doing is called SPECULATION,sometimes we win sometimes we lose,NO THEORIES,NO SCIENCES
Tue Apr 27 14:10:59 EDT 1999
anonymous: Sarvie: If reserves don't matter, why is Russia defaulting on MinFins and begging for Fund for money? LOOK BELOW,PLEASE REGARDING SPECULATIVE INVESTMENTS,IF YOU DON'T LIKE RUSFED THEN DON'T BUY ANY OR GO SHORT.REALLY,WHERE IS THE PROBLEM???
Tue Apr 27 14:13:07 EDT 1999
anonymous: Why take it so personal? We are supposed to share our views and analysis on this site, right?
Tue Apr 27 14:13:20 EDT 1999
anonymous: Why take it so personal? We are supposed to share our views and analysis on this site, right?
Tue Apr 27 14:23:07 EDT 1999
anonymous: Sarvie: I pitty you: "Reserves don't matter."
Tue Apr 27 14:31:36 EDT 1999
¤ wally ¤: ladies/gentlemen: keep on discussing! i heard it through the grapevine. this site will receive the global ANAL-lysts' award "financial site of the week" as i am quite sure we are moving markets (worldwide) here. yet, tiny things bother me, such as "you are..", "you have..." you do not have..". i think WE ALL should improve slightly. a little fun should be allowed but no insults. top secret flash news: maslyukov and zadornov take a break with the imf now and then to receive (from "colour of the market") new inspirations for their negotiations.
Tue Apr 27 14:36:23 EDT 1999
anonymous: Wally, good message, but to ANAL
Tue Apr 27 14:43:53 EDT 1999
¤ wally ¤: <reserves> to matter or not to matter that is here the question. put a value on russias hidden reserves like nuclear warheads, weapongrade plutonium, decaying reactor-powered submarines in murmansk, russia's needed role in the balkans, no flaring up the good old cold war. this reserves are the main ones, there are a lot of others. but if i value them with the utmost minimum i arrive at a total figure of usd 150 billion. my opinion.
Tue Apr 27 14:50:45 EDT 1999
Omar: Good point wally, "political" reserves might not exist in the books but they're sure priced by the market, a similar case might be Mexico which enjoys a "NAFTA" premium. Saludos
Tue Apr 27 14:54:50 EDT 1999
anonymous: Wally: you are hamlet. respect your opinion, but have less faith in bureaucrats than you. IMF should have not let Russia go last April. Would not have had a global crisis and the political mess we have today. Probably not even a war if Russia was the Russia before the Augie 98 crisis.
Tue Apr 27 14:57:40 EDT 1999
¤ wally ¤: <what matters is the level of non-inflationary Roubles Minfin can collect> listen to the man's arguments, not necessarily to his price forecasts which are now more realistic than last week but still heavy on the optimistic side.
Tue Apr 27 15:00:33 EDT 1999
anonymous: Why take it so personal? We are supposed to share our views and analysis on this site, right? THERE IS A DIFFERENCE BETWEEN ANALYSIS AND DOOMSAYING FOR THE DOOMSAYING SAKE,RIGHT?NOTHING IS TAKEN PERSONAL,NEVER ONE WORD OF INSULT TO YOU!
Tue Apr 27 15:02:15 EDT 1999
anonymous: Probably not even a war if Russia was the Russia before the Augie 98 crisis. I AGREE 100%,rgds.Fred
Tue Apr 27 15:03:02 EDT 1999
anonymous: Brazilian Forex scandal is another fiasco comparable to Minas Gerais. Expect lot of volatility
Tue Apr 27 15:07:43 EDT 1999
anonymous: Wally, why would the G7 draw the line on Eurobonds. I think they will keep them from going into the abyss, but I just don't think the G7 believes that defaulting on Eurobonds drives them into the abyss. The country is so blanked up right now, this line in sand bewteen the post and pre-Soviet debt is just not relevant. Unless Russia implements a credible economic and fiscal program, you, I, the IMF, and everyone else is just engaged in wishful thinking. As analysts, this is what we need to focus on and I think that was the message from the G7 in their statement yesterday. Is a default on eurobonds going to cause capital flight? A collapse in Brazil? A 1000 point drop on the Dow? No more funding for Russia? We must now look at the cost and benefit of paying the eurobonds, if the IMF deal is as tight as being rumored.
Tue Apr 27 15:10:22 EDT 1999
¤ wally ¤: omar: mexico has nafta AND the "rio grande" premium. but one cannot compare mexican economy with russian economy. russia needs decades to reach mexico's standards and levels. saludos to you.
Tue Apr 27 15:15:44 EDT 1999
anonymous: as we said yesterday, the rally is over. this market is going down!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Tue Apr 27 15:18:59 EDT 1999
anonymous: spanky is back!!!!
Tue Apr 27 15:19:19 EDT 1999
¤ wally ¤: <why would the G7.. euro> i am talking about russia in general not specifically euros. but what is left besides the euros if you leave out soviet era, paris club, london club and last not least imf? hardly anything! a default on euros will neither cause a capital flight nor will (?) it affect the dow. but their will be heavy premiums to be paid by all emerging countries. no 'bailed-in' private investor will buy any emg bond with a yield of less than 20 (twenty)% AND we would have a real worldwide credit crunch again.
Tue Apr 27 15:21:22 EDT 1999
anonymous: so, wally. all this talk from the imf and g7 about bailins is just that, chit-chat? or are they serious?
Tue Apr 27 15:22:58 EDT 1999
Omar: Hola wally, of course I wasn't comparing the economies of Russia and Mexico, I was only referring to the "political/strategic" value that these two countries have. Interesting point from Anon on potential effects of a Russian Eurobond default. If that was the case I assume that Russia will shut itsef off from private financing at any reasonable cost, thus would the G7 be prepared to abandon Russia or would they go 100% government financing ?
Tue Apr 27 15:22:59 EDT 1999
anonymous: as we said yesterday, the rally is over. this market is going down!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! WE HAD A RISE OF 35%-50% IN THE LAST 6 MONTHS,SO A LITTLE DOWNTREND IS JUSTIFIED!NEVER ANY INSULTS TO BEARS OR SHORTS
Tue Apr 27 15:30:53 EDT 1999
Omar: Let's make a deal: no insults to bears or shorts AND no panic predictions WITHOUT a rationale. The point of a pullback after such a rally is valid.
Tue Apr 27 15:32:41 EDT 1999
anonymous: Agreed,greetings to all,Charles Watson
Tue Apr 27 15:32:45 EDT 1999
¤ wally ¤: <talk from the imf> no i don't think it is chit-chat. they do mean it! and they are preparing a for a big assault but for the future. politicians always have to probe slowly (because they fear any adverse reaction or result). it start's with 'thinking aloud' and interviews and then statements. we have a whole bunch together (who all have to agree) and that is why i think it will take a long time that the assault on euros succeeds (IF they are willing to bear the consequences!).
Tue Apr 27 15:36:11 EDT 1999
¤ wally ¤: omar: <would they go 100% government financing?> compañero, no idea. honestly.
Tue Apr 27 15:36:33 EDT 1999
anonymous: The consequence might be having entire countries laying on the IMF & Co pockets for years on end,due to total private money pullback.There are no clean and painless solutions on that subject.
Tue Apr 27 15:39:32 EDT 1999
¤ wally ¤: <pullback after such a rally is valid> correct.
Tue Apr 27 15:45:53 EDT 1999
¤ wally ¤: <no clean and painless solutions> yes! in fact the solutions could turn out quite bloody. see indonesia 1997.
Tue Apr 27 15:51:51 EDT 1999
anonymous: The other possibility is when new Bonds are too difficult to issue for the countries with too high risk,then the problem will resolve itself in time
Tue Apr 27 16:22:54 EDT 1999
anonymous: Russia is defaulting on prins and ians and minfins. where is the argument they are cut off from private financing. russia is cut off from private financing. panama defaulted on eurbonds in 1986 and back in the market 5 years later. have some comm0n sense.
Tue Apr 27 16:31:35 EDT 1999
anonymous: Panama defaulted on EUROBONDS ?????
Tue Apr 27 16:31:37 EDT 1999
anonymous: defaulting-schmefaulting,Savonarola is right,but how right he is,you will be surprized in some years to come.rgds.Fred
Tue Apr 27 16:33:18 EDT 1999
anonymous: Yes. Yen denominated eurobonds in 1989.
Tue Apr 27 16:37:48 EDT 1999
anonymous: Costa Rica defaulted on eurobonds in the 1980's also.
Tue Apr 27 16:40:21 EDT 1999
anonymous: Germany defaulted twice.Really?Yes really!
Tue Apr 27 16:44:31 EDT 1999
anonymous: The Netherlands NEVER defaulted
Tue Apr 27 16:45:56 EDT 1999
anonymous: U.S. defaulted in the mid-1800's..
Tue Apr 27 16:47:14 EDT 1999
anonymous: Germany also got 50% of their external written off after WWII. Japan defaulted also.
Tue Apr 27 16:48:42 EDT 1999
anonymous: Confederated States of America,total crash,BUT their Bonds are worth a fotune today
Tue Apr 27 16:50:13 EDT 1999
anonymous: Young Anleihen or so??
Tue Apr 27 16:53:38 EDT 1999
anonymous: Germany got debt written off and the Städte and Länder debt (towns and counties)didn't have to be repaid
Tue Apr 27 17:27:19 EDT 1999
PILLX: A.Russia's overdue payments to the Paris Club of sovereign creditors and the London Club of commercial creditors now total $2 billion, a spokeswoman for the government's foreign debt payment agent Vnesheconombank said Tuesday."The ability of the Russian economy to self-develop directly depends on the possibilities of settling the Soviet debts," Andrei Kostin, chairman of Vnesheconombank, also was quoted as saying by Interfax news agency Tuesday."A certain part of London Club creditors is even prepared to write off Soviet debts," he added, although he noted that because Russia isn't one of the poorest debtors to the club "it seems that to write off part of Russia's debts would require a political decision."Russia has around $40 billion in outstanding debts to the Paris Club and around $30 billion to the London Club.All financial instruments and mechanisms should be used to resolve the problem of Soviet debts, from the conversion of bonds to writing off and restructuring at below-market rates, Kostin said.Conversion of Russia's foreign debt into Russian stocks, commodities, Soviet property abroad and other assets is an acceptable form of debt settlement, Kostin said.
Tue Apr 27 17:31:11 EDT 1999
PILLX: A.Russia's overdue payments tothe PCandLClnow total $2 billion, a spokeswoman for the government's foreign debt payment agent Vnesheconombank said Tuesday."The ability of theRussian economy toself-develop directly depends onthe possibilities of settling theSovietdebts,"AndreiKostin,chairmanofVnesheconombank,also was quoted as saying by Interfax news agency Tuesday."Acertain part of LCcreditors iseven prepared towriteoff Sovietdebts"he added, although he noted that because Russia isn't one of the poorest debtors to the club"it seems that to write off part of Russia's debts would require a political decision."Russia has around $40 billion in outstanding debts to the Paris Club and around $30b. totheLC.All financial instruments and mechanisms should be used to resolve the problem of Soviet debts, from the conversion of bonds to writing off and restructuring at below-market rates, Kostin said.Conversion of Russia's foreign debt into Russian stocks, commodities, Soviet property abroad and other assets is an acceptable form of debt settlement, Kostin said.
Tue Apr 27 17:35:23 EDT 1999
PILLX: A.Russia's overdue payments tothe PCandLClnow total $2b.a spokeswoman for the government's foreign debt payment agent Vnesheconombank said Tuesday."The ability of theRussian economy toself-develop directly depends onthe possibilities of settling theSovietdebts,"AndreiKostin,chairmanofVnesheconombank,also was quoted as saying by Interfax news agency Tuesday."Acertain part of LCcreditors iseven prepared towriteoff Sovietdebts"he added, although he noted that because Russia isn't one of the poorest debtors to the club"it seems that to write off part of Russia's debts would require a political decision."Russia has around $40 b.in outstanding debts to the Paris Club and around $30b.to the LC.All financial instruments and mechanisms should be used to resolve theproblem of Sovietdebts,fromthe conversionof bonds to writing off andrestructuring atbelow-marketrates.Conversion of Russiasforeigndebt intoRussianstocks,commoditiesSoviet property abroad andother assets isan acceptable form of debt settlement
Tue Apr 27 17:35:33 EDT 1999
PILLX: B.He didn't elaborate."Not all foreign debts should be converted and restructured," he said. "Despite all the difficulties, payments on Eurobonds and Russian (Ministry of Finance) bonds must still be made," he said.Last week, First Deputy Finance Minister Mikhail Kasyanov said the government would not meet a May 14 payment of $1.3 billion in principal on its MinFin Series Three bonds. The government's position on $300 million in coupon payments on other MinFin tranches, also due May 14, remains unclear. Kasyanov and other officials have said the issue of the payments will be resolved in talks with the London Club.Russia is due to pay $212 billion by the year 2000 on its $147 billion of foreign debt and MinFin bonds. The country's foreign debt has increased by 52% since Russia assumed the former Soviet debt in 1992, he said.
Tue Apr 27 17:39:16 EDT 1999
anonymous: 1,633,956,830,288% yield. ouch!!!!!
Tue Apr 27 17:57:50 EDT 1999
¤ wally ¤: pillx: <$212 billion by the year 2000 on its $147 billion> how was your consumption of chivas today?
Tue Apr 27 17:59:23 EDT 1999
Savonarola: Anon, I can not tell you why Russia might not pay the tranch 3. Probably because they do not have the roubles to buy the dollars, or simply because they've chosen not to do so...who knows? ask Zadornov!...But that is the beauty of Russia because they differentiate Soviet and Russain debt, some debt is paid, some debt is not..your chanllange is to find which will be paid..if you win (buying Euros) you trebble your money before year end. Alternatively you can buy Brazil at 700 over and fall in a trap with all those who are now looking for a home for $2 bn of Fraga paper...what has changed in that country?...nothing at all! After four presidents since I am around (Sarney/Collor/Franco/Cardozo) they are even worse than Russia, begging not for $4 bn but for $24 bn... I choose cheap, unwanted, undervalued, orphan, forgotten, written off Russian Euros at 3000 over rather than anything else at less than a 1000 over... I know LA, its crap and will always be, Russia is Europe, it counts...
Tue Apr 27 18:00:24 EDT 1999
PILLX: MISTER ouch: The whole idea of extending an IMF INVERSE comparability to sovereign bond issue,please explain with lower yield,if not I will try to explain you their new strategy
Tue Apr 27 18:01:34 EDT 1999
anonymous: russia 18 & 28 bid-off pls, thanks
Tue Apr 27 18:07:00 EDT 1999
¤ wally ¤: http://www.bradynet.com/prices.html << russia bid/ask
Tue Apr 27 18:10:11 EDT 1999
¤ wally ¤: <russia 18 & 28 bid-off pls> just in case you don't know how to click with your mouse 41/43. you are welcome.
Tue Apr 27 18:12:56 EDT 1999
¤ wally ¤: pillx: you did not react. how much chivas today?
Tue Apr 27 18:13:16 EDT 1999
PILLX: WALLY ,I'm back home and there I never take chivas only LAGAVULIN 16,but I still ANALyzing the new situation, in a few minutes, I will send you my new ideas!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Tue Apr 27 18:17:05 EDT 1999
¤ wally ¤: pillx: what the heck is LAGAVULIN 16? euphoria drug with viagra?
Tue Apr 27 18:25:40 EDT 1999
PILLX: LAGAVULIN 16 is a single Islay malt whisky it takes out the fire but lives in the warmth
Tue Apr 27 18:26:27 EDT 1999
anonymous: Why do you listen to politicians saying we will pay eurobonds. Lushov said City of Moscow would be paid and today they say they may not pay. Yeltsin said the ruble would not be devalued and they let it go. Sometimes, the economic reality overwhelms politicians. I agree, I think Russia wants to pay if it can, but reality is setting in fast. No economic ajustment = default. that is the message from the IMF and G7 and that is the reality. Sarvie, with your logic you should be buying MinFin 3's.. Look at that yield on annualized basis!!! I guess sometimes the market yield is a signal of default -- o yes, that is what the G7 is saying also, so be prepared to accept the risk and stop swimming in the river DeNile.
Tue Apr 27 18:29:41 EDT 1999
anonymous: Hola, Senoritas! Still just playing with you, like a Cat swats a mouse. Looks like I win today! Still waiting to POUNCE!! Luv ya, Spanky!
Tue Apr 27 18:30:49 EDT 1999
¤ wally ¤: pillx: thanks. i hope you don't charge for that information. but i still don't know what is "islay".
Tue Apr 27 18:34:26 EDT 1999
¤ wally ¤: <Looks like I win> spanky girl, when i look at the prices your winnings do not seem to be overwhelming. luv to see you here, querida!
Tue Apr 27 18:38:11 EDT 1999
¤ wally ¤: <listen to politicians> that's what i am preaching since years never listen to politicians! all of them with very very few exceptions are plain liars.
Tue Apr 27 18:47:54 EDT 1999
PILLX: TO WALLY http://www.islaywhisky.com/
Tue Apr 27 18:57:39 EDT 1999
¤ wally ¤: pillx: i see, so that is your secret. will explore the site as soon as poosible. right now i have an appointment with captain picard. he wants to show me russias hidden reserves. talk to you later.
Tue Apr 27 18:58:11 EDT 1999
anonymous: Have a nice nite... :-]
Tue Apr 27 18:59:22 EDT 1999
anonymous: nice nite, i loss money today.. :-[
Tue Apr 27 19:08:42 EDT 1999
PILLX: Russia's overdue payments + if LC and PC are not to write off Soviet debts but rechedule + minfin )= 212B. in 2000. THE new strategy of the IMF : RUSSIA prefer to keep these very important instruments of private investment (EUROS) in an unrestructurable position, like IMF and World Bank borrowing, then IMF will only borrow 4.5B.in 1999 minus cash outflow to Euros +/- 1.7B...? IMF INVERSE comparability (only my opinion)
Tue Apr 27 19:21:42 EDT 1999
PILLX: 6.Figures provided by both sides showed Russian industrial production over the past six months to be a little better than most had expected. Following the devaluation of the ruble, many analysts forecast the Russian economy would contract by at least 5% this year following a 4.6% decline in GDP last year. But the ruble devaluation appears to be having a positive effect on industrial production, as consumers buy locally manufactured goods in preference for more expensive imports. Zadornov expects the economy to do better than private analysts forecast. "We expect only a 2% cut in GDP in the worst case, and maybe better," he said. Analysts also feared that the ruble devaluation would push Russia into a high inflation spiral. Prices rose by 84% last year, but in March prices rose by 2.8%, the lowest monthly increase since the devaluation. Zadornov said he expects inflation in 1999
Tue Apr 27 19:21:51 EDT 1999
PILLX: 5.The $1.3 billion MinFin three series matures on May 14. First Deputy Minister of Finance Mikhail Kasyanov said last week in London that the government wouldn't make this payment, since the bonds represent debt inherited from the Soviet Union. However, Zadornov said the fate of the MinFin three series is the subject of the government's talks with the IMF and the Paris Club, and that a decision will be announced prior to the maturity date. During a meeting of finance ministers and central bankers from the Group of Seven leading industrialized nations Monday, one of the few surprises was an upbeat assessment of Russian economic conditions, not only by the Russian delegation, but also by the International Monetary Fund
Tue Apr 27 19:21:56 EDT 1999
PILLX: 4.In line with its policy of continuing to make payments on its post-1992 debts, the government has continued to service its Eurobonds. However, bond investors fear that the Paris Club may force it to restructure these instruments following a precedent-setting agreement it reached with Pakistan in February. As a condition of rescheduling Pakistan's debts, the Paris Club is insisting that the country's Eurobonds be treated in a similar way. Zadornov rejected this option. "We're against any attempts to make bonds part of a restructuring," he said. "We prefer to keep these very important instruments of private investment in an unrestructurable position, like IMF and World Bank borrowing." The finance minister said the government hadn't decided yet on the fate of its dollar-denominated domestic debt, known as MinFins.
Tue Apr 27 19:22:05 EDT 1999
PILLX: 3.Zadornov wouldn't comment on the degree of debt forgiveness the government will seek from its creditors, although Maslyukov has previously said the government wants a write off of 75%. However, he said the government will seek a "strategic" agreement with creditors that will address debt payments over the medium to long term. The finance minister said the government has been in contact with the Paris and London clubs, and that an agreement on rescheduling its debt can follow soon after the IMF board approves its loan. The government missed a $362 million payment to the London Club in December, and has more than $2 billion in arrears to the Paris Club.
Tue Apr 27 19:22:16 EDT 1999
PILLX: 2.On the Moscow Interbank Currency Exchange Tuesday, the dollar for next-day delivery inched up to 24.57 rubles from 24.53 rubles on Monday. After the preliminary agreement is signed, it will be subject to the approval of both the Russian government and the IMF's management. The final loan agreement will then need to be approved by the IMF's board of directors. If and when that approval is given, the government can begin debt rescheduling talks with the Paris Club of creditor governments and the London Club of foreign bank creditors. In both of those cases, the government is seeking to reschedule debt it inherited from the Soviet Union. It has pledged to meet payments on debt incurred by the Russian Federation since 1992
Tue Apr 27 19:22:22 EDT 1999
PILLX: 1.The finance minister said the talks had reached their "final stage," although the exact amount of the loan has yet to be decided. Russia must repay $4.8 billion to the Fund over the coming year. "We will discuss the financial gap with Mr. Camdessus ... tomorrow and ... it's a final decision of negotiations," he said. Following the devaluation of the ruble in August, Russia resorted to wide ranging foreign-exchange controls in order to prop up the currency and hold on to its reserves. The IMF normally opposes the use of such controls, but Zadornov said there will be no changes to the present system. "There will be no serious changes in our hard currency policy, but if in the near future we can borrow from the IMF and World Bank, of course we don't need any continued use of CBR reserves to pay our external debt," he said.
Tue Apr 27 19:36:44 EDT 1999
PILLX: http://www.moneynet.com/content/MONEYNET/CategoryNews/NewsStory.asp?Cat=FINMKT&SubCat=FMTCM&ID=SF-04/27-AnN27125296@NEWS-P1&Index=0&HeadlineURL=../CategoryNews/CategoryNews.asp&DISABLE_FORM=&NAVSVC=News\Category
Tue Apr 27 19:53:17 EDT 1999
anonymous: Russian Eurobonds are a sell!
Tue Apr 27 20:09:09 EDT 1999
Cheetah: In numbers: Euros total ?? BB, all others ?? BB after a 75% haircut and consolidation into ONE new bond (a CAMDESSUS: 30 or 40 year term zero coupon with an debt to equity provision and a debt to nuke provision but with a UST principal gaurantee). Seems that under this scenario RUSSIA is a BUY BUY BUY !!! (someone with brains pls do the numbers - thanks)
Tue Apr 27 20:12:25 EDT 1999
anonymous: Cheat: assuming russia didn't default on the prins, they are a: BYE, Bye, bye, bye.. Reserves are falling, cheat, face reality
Tue Apr 27 20:30:22 EDT 1999
¤ wally ¤: <russian euros are a sell> can you give us your reasons please? we are all ticked off by statements without reasons. if you do not have an opinion of your own then quote at least.
Tue Apr 27 20:33:37 EDT 1999
¤ wally ¤: cheetah: watch out, one more creation like "a camdessus" and i will submit your name too (for the pulitzer prize).
Tue Apr 27 20:35:51 EDT 1999
Cheetah: Take the total debt 140bb ? of all PC LC Prin Ian MinFin REDUCE by 75%, that leaves 35 billion, to be repaid in a NEW BOND (Camdessus or lewinsky - depends on your taste). This new 40 year zero cpn would have a guarantee to be set up from the proceeds of the sale of 5 billion in ASSets (mostly SOVIET) over the next 3 years . NO CASH OUT from Russia. SOVIET assets takes care of SOVIET debt. ONLY EUROS TO SERVICE - quite easy. BUY BUY BUY!!! this is the RADICAL PROPOSAL taken to Washington...
Tue Apr 27 20:36:09 EDT 1999
Cheetah: Take the total debt 140bb ? of all PC LC Prin Ian MinFin REDUCE by 75%, that leaves 35 billion, to be repaid in a NEW BOND (Camdessus or lewinsky - depends on your taste). This new 40 year zero cpn would have a guarantee to be set up from the proceeds of the sale of 5 billion in ASSets (mostly SOVIET) over the next 3 years . NO CASH OUT from Russia. SOVIET assets takes care of SOVIET debt. ONLY EUROS TO SERVICE - quite easy. BUY BUY BUY!!! this is the RADICAL PROPOSAL taken to Washington...
Tue Apr 27 20:36:42 EDT 1999
PILLX: TO MR. CAMDESSUS : Emerging markets, the ones with relatively closed financial markets - like China and India - withstood the financial crisis better than those with more open systems like Russia, Indonesia and Brazil as having more liberalized financial markets and being more effected by the contagion.
Tue Apr 27 20:36:55 EDT 1999
¤ wally ¤: <i loss money today> you only lost if you sold.
Tue Apr 27 20:37:34 EDT 1999
anonymous: sorry for double posting...
Tue Apr 27 20:41:15 EDT 1999
¤ wally ¤: PILLX: you cannot reason with a bureaucrat who is a political appointee. camdessus is either stupid and ignorant or he just follows the instructins of his master(s).
Tue Apr 27 20:41:24 EDT 1999
anonymous: 04-27-99 ¤ wally ¤: (205.188.195.37) <i loss money today> you only lost if you sold. Wally, the worst mistake of traders is to trade "cost." have the GKO holders lost money, even though they have not sold. have the ian holders lost money?
Tue Apr 27 20:42:46 EDT 1999
¤ wally ¤: Cheetah: never mind double posting. somebody has to make up for a boring evening/night.
Tue Apr 27 20:45:34 EDT 1999
¤ wally ¤: different case. you cite 'bonds' where commitments were not honoured. we are talking here 99.9% EUROS which were (until now) all paid on time.
Tue Apr 27 20:47:14 EDT 1999
¤ wally ¤: <worst mistake of traders> most of us are not traders but investors. there is a huge big difference.
Tue Apr 27 20:49:58 EDT 1999
PILLX: Wally please your opinion: THE new strategy of the IMF : RUSSIA prefer to keep these very important instruments of private investment (EUROS) in an unrestructurable position, like IMF and World Bank borrowing, then IMF will only borrow 4.5B.in 1999 minus cash outflow to Euros +/- 1.7B...? IMF INVERSE comparability (only my opinion)
Tue Apr 27 20:54:31 EDT 1999
Cheetah: pilly I just told you what the NEW STRATEGY is, it leaves Russia in a privileged position, even Spankygirl must agree.
Tue Apr 27 20:55:24 EDT 1999
¤ wally ¤: pillx: your opinion is very reasonable and logical. with soviet era debt restructured (haircut) and a part or all of the minfin rescheduled (different from restructuring!) and a rescheduling or restructuring of paris and london club, russia's eurobond debt is PEANUTS.
Tue Apr 27 20:55:56 EDT 1999
anonymous: After posting my bail of $175 I need some tips from Bradynetters - what should I buy ?? Chico Lopes
Tue Apr 27 20:57:07 EDT 1999
¤ wally ¤: cheetah: is the 'new strategy' your opinion or conclusion based on facts?
Tue Apr 27 20:57:54 EDT 1999
anonymous: pillyx ? wally ? cheetah ? soviet assets for soviet debt ? I want ALL of you in Washington TOMORROW. Bob & Larry
Tue Apr 27 21:00:29 EDT 1999
¤ wally ¤: lopes: why don't you talk to your successor and sell him the idea to go public with brazil CB. you could then (under the table of course) 'pre-subscribe' the new IPO. what do you think?
Tue Apr 27 21:00:40 EDT 1999
drjbg: From http://www.moneynet.com/content... (cited by PILLX): >>One problem is that the new clauses would only be in new contracts, meaning a considerably time period before a meaningful proportion of countries' eurobond debt could be rescheduled in time of crisis. << This makes "bail-in" irrelevant for RUS28 bond holders. In fact, it actually makes existing bonds more valuable (because not subject to this kind of re-structuring). Restructuring outside of a contract, of course, is always a possibility. But that's NOT what this "bail-in" proposal is all about. I'm amazed no one has emphasized this before.
Tue Apr 27 21:03:45 EDT 1999
¤ wally ¤: Bob & Larry: it was about time to invite us to solve your bloody problems. please arrange enough 'islay whiskey' and sufficient lewinskys. give us the job and w'll finish the tools!
Tue Apr 27 21:08:49 EDT 1999
¤ wally ¤: drjbg: <bail-in irrelevant> i emphasized "NEW" several times since some days but nobody listens.
Tue Apr 27 21:10:38 EDT 1999
¤ wally ¤: pillx, cheetah: where in D.C. and when do we meet?
Tue Apr 27 21:27:06 EDT 1999
PILLX: EUROS recheduling:it will open up a rash of breach-of-contract lawsuits,the deal could expose not only the government,but also Group-of-Seven governments and their finance ministers,to legal action.Any litigation that would prompt a freeze on economic assets would put government finances at even greater risk than exists under its current debt obligations.A scheme to privatize the country's companys would be held up by any pending legal action.The G-7's approach is incredibly naive.Don't forget if they pay minfin Russia will save a few big banks from collapsing,with PC,LC they have no scrupuls,they can ask and obtain 99% forgiveness on a politically, military, nuclear, sociolicaly,economically,erotically etc.. or even other reasons
Tue Apr 27 21:31:46 EDT 1999
PILLX: Wally,I can take the concorde from Paris or London in a few hours please let me know when and where???
Tue Apr 27 21:37:58 EDT 1999
anonymous: sorry dlbg, but the higher value for "old" euro's was already discussed, but we always welcome a renewal... cheetah
Tue Apr 27 21:40:48 EDT 1999
anonymous: Wally, sorry to spoil your plans to Washinsky, excuse me Washington, but I need you in Brasilia, good idea. Arminio F.
Tue Apr 27 21:44:02 EDT 1999
Cheetah: Pillx, we would need a list of the SOvIET ASSets we could use, I could be in NY or Washinsky by lunch time, maybe at the Congressional Golf Club ?
Tue Apr 27 21:48:36 EDT 1999
PILLX: WALLY re.^Russia-s hidden reserves^ Give me your number,my estimations is a few trillion $, the problem of Russia is cash no asset, and when someone try to invest to extract those reserves the Mafia do their best to see only short term benefit
Tue Apr 27 22:06:30 EDT 1999
PILLX: TO Cheetah: Russia has around $70b.in outstanding debts to thePC,LC.All financial instruments and mechanisms should be used to resolve the problem of Sovietdebts,commodities,Soviet property abroad and other assets is an acceptable form of debt settlement.Not all foreign debts should be converted and restructured.Despite all the difficulties,payments on Eurobonds and Russian (Ministry of Finance) bonds must still be made.
Tue Apr 27 22:06:37 EDT 1999
anonymous: 4-27-99 Anonymous: After posting my bail of $175 I need some tips from Bradynetters - what should I buy ?? Chico Lopes << CHICO. I REC EQUITY IN CHEETAH, HIS VALUE AS A COMEDIAN IS SOARING!!! BYE, BYE, BYE, BI?
Tue Apr 27 22:08:59 EDT 1999
anonymous: 04-27-99 ¤ wally ¤: (205.188.195.37) <worst mistake of traders> most of us are not traders but investors. there is a huge big difference. << o.k., bill. just like oral sex is not sex.
Tue Apr 27 22:11:38 EDT 1999
anonymous: <eurobond debt is PEANUTS> Wally, the only problem is so are their reserves!!!
Tue Apr 27 22:15:57 EDT 1999
anonymous: WASHINGTON, April 27 (Reuters) - The International Monetary Fund will not hand over money from a proposed new loan to Russia until its parliament approves amendments to key laws on banks, bankruptcy and other issues, Russia's economic chief said Tuesday. First Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Maslyukov told reporters that the IMF would wait for the State Duma lower house of parliament and the Federation Council upper house to vote before approving payments from a yet-to-be-agreed loan. ``There is one principal issue left for us and our delegation -- it is the speed with which amendments in legislation can be adopted,'' Maslyukov told reporters. ``The IMF insists that a condition for issuing a tranche is the adoption of amendments to laws in the Duma and the Federation Council.''<<EUROBOND PAYMENTS, DOOMED -A.. THAT IS IT. NOW WE KNOW WHAT TO FOCUS ON!
Tue Apr 27 22:19:54 EDT 1999
anonymous: WASHINGTON, April 27 (Reuters) - Russia must force new legislation through parliament before it can win new cash from a reluctant International Monetary Fund, a Russian official said on Tuesday, admitting that much-needed payments could still face long delays. ``There is one principal issue left for us and our delegation -- it is the speed with which amendments in legislation can be adopted,'' First Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Maslyukov said at the end of a second day of intensive loan talks in Washington.<<ADIOS, EUROBONDS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Tue Apr 27 22:32:20 EDT 1999
PILLX: http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990427/b77.html I see it as very positive
Tue Apr 27 22:52:56 EDT 1999
¤ wally ¤: <much-needed payments could still face long delays> good news pillx! evidence of political powerplay. <ADIOS, EUROBONDS> see below. < see it as very positive> me too (after some vodkas). <EUROBOND PAYMENTS, DOOMED> we shall see! <wally need you in Brasilia> please wait, bob & larry called first. sorry for the delay. summing up: capital letters and a lot of exclamation marks (for the less educated ones = !!!!!!) are no substitute for a constructive dialogue.
Tue Apr 27 22:56:20 EDT 1999
¤ wally ¤: pillx: <Give me your number> don't have a number and don't want to guess. but russia will make it.

1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   [21]   22   23