Color of the Market Archive, Page #3
Color of the Market A R C H I V E 

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The Color of the Market has been an online meeting place for people interested in emerging market debt since 1996, and has undergone many changes in that time. We have discovered an old archive of Color of the Market messages, covering 5 months starting in late 1998. For the benefit of both old and new Bradynetters, we present this archive untouched.

Note: Back in these days, the forum software was greatly different than the Color of the Market that we are now accustomed to. Without the requirement of registration, the forum began to attract disrupters who would engage in vulgarities, name-calling, impersonation of users, and other childish hijinks. But if you can wade through the nonsense, some of the comments herein are historic, and prophetic.

Enjoy,
IDEAGlobal/BradyNet Staff

Wed Jan 13 09:27:38 EST 1999
anonymous: it's just Mini-Doom. It's wasted time to have an argument with him asl ive is damned bloody short.
Wed Jan 13 09:34:58 EST 1999
anonymous: this crash will not go forever,rgds.Alex
Wed Jan 13 09:52:46 EST 1999
Daniel: Alles hat ein Ende... (nur die Wurst hat zwei!)
Wed Jan 13 10:06:13 EST 1999
anonymous: It's not the size (of the devaluation) per se, but the fact that the Brazilian government has decided to weaken its resolve. Once the market sniffs weakness, they take advantage of it and push it to a full-blown devaluation -- launch a speculative attack.
Wed Jan 13 10:34:47 EST 1999
wally: so now we have the '40 handle'; now what? can all you bloody germans maybe stick to english? mir macht das zwar nichts aus aber es gibt genug hier im forum die nur bahnhof verstehen.
Wed Jan 13 10:50:13 EST 1999
anonymous: I hate to< but I must.. I TOLD YOU SO... I TOLD YOU SO.. I TOLD YOU SO.. Next time listen to me... Let's hope Brazil does the right thing and protects its poor and working class.. The next country to break? The USA --> gonna be the next JAPAN. Luv ya, Spanky...
Wed Jan 13 10:52:18 EST 1999
optimist: the tricky thing is that dumb american housewives trading through Internet still dont believe their yhoo&amzn holdings can turn into dust!! while more established european stocks tumble 3-4% US bnchmarks are hardly 2% down! Thats really the country of egocentrical morons
Wed Jan 13 10:53:50 EST 1999
anonymous: yea. kind of like the Brazilians believing in the Real Plan as the country's domestic and external deficits exploded.. Dumbness knows no borders, my friend.
Wed Jan 13 10:55:41 EST 1999
anonymous: obsessed with achieving fame for purity.
Wed Jan 13 11:04:11 EST 1999
optimist: Probably the only worth staff in Latam is collateralised Ecu bradies - sovereign cash flows trading nearly as cheap as Russian!
Wed Jan 13 11:10:45 EST 1999
wally: we had the sake crises, the tequila crises, the singapore sling crises, the vodka crises and now the caipirinha crises. what crises on earth is left to survive ?
Wed Jan 13 11:12:15 EST 1999
anonymous: THE COORS LIGHT CRISIS.. COMING TO INTERNET SITE CLOSE TO YOU.. Luv ya, Spanky.COM
Wed Jan 13 11:36:43 EST 1999
unpourtous: Wally, the next one might be the worst of all; the bourbon crisis. Persistent US current account deficits...
Wed Jan 13 11:44:01 EST 1999
anonymous: Hey wally.. remember all these crises are symptoms of the unwinding of a huge liquidity bubble... we know who is next: the G7.. Spanky
Wed Jan 13 11:45:22 EST 1999
anonymous: Good news, We have just heard that in order to restore confidence Brazil will immediately change its name to "Brazil.com", and start selling bananas over the internet.
Wed Jan 13 12:15:30 EST 1999
anonymous: Hi Spanky,I say,much ado about nothing,Du machst Dich nur verrückt,sitzt den ganzen Tag am Internet und hast doch keine Kohle.grüsse Shakespeare
Wed Jan 13 12:46:37 EST 1999
anonymous: in english, pls., "damned" Kraut.
Wed Jan 13 12:55:50 EST 1999
anonymous: Much ado about 12 points lower.
Wed Jan 13 13:12:59 EST 1999
Daniel: I'll try to translate this: "Du machst Dich nur verrückt,sitzt den ganzen Tag am Internet und hast doch keine Kohle." I think it means "You only make yourself crazy, you sit on the internet the entire day and only have a little coal." Coal???
Wed Jan 13 13:24:35 EST 1999
anonymous: Hey My German Friends: Please give me five solid reasons why the EMU holds? Maybe the next domino is the EURO?? Luv ya, Spanky
Wed Jan 13 13:40:34 EST 1999
wally: coal in german means money.
Wed Jan 13 13:45:05 EST 1999
anonymous: take a shower first, spanky.
Wed Jan 13 13:46:09 EST 1999
wally: 'bourbon' crises! of course, did not of think of that (yet). it does not really matter. i like the greatest nation on earth. spend quite some time there because it's damn cheap. uneducated barbarians but beautiful and helpful neighbours. i love the indidual american even if he thinks tokyo, cairo and bombay are located next to each other.
Wed Jan 13 13:50:34 EST 1999
anonymous: come on wally.. gee whiz, don't start beatin' on Americans. Luv ya, Spanky
Wed Jan 13 14:29:18 EST 1999
anonymous: Wally: What about Ecuador?? what do you think?? is this time a good moment to buy??
Wed Jan 13 15:07:03 EST 1999
anonymous: uneducated barbarians, stupid housewives....yeah right Germans, that's only one of the reasons that we beat the crap out of you 50 years ago and still control the world. Do a reality check. Patton
Wed Jan 13 15:10:03 EST 1999
anonymous: why ask wally? he liked brazil 10 points higher.
Wed Jan 13 15:43:37 EST 1999
unpourtous: War's over. Get new parts for your head.
Wed Jan 13 15:52:57 EST 1999
anonymous: Who is this Spanky?
Wed Jan 13 16:48:18 EST 1999
anonymous: It was only on Monday that MMS Intl was recommending corporates to take advantage of the ' January effect' - the question to be asked is who pays for this crap?
Wed Jan 13 16:58:31 EST 1999
anonymous: Yesteday IADB analysts were saying that Brazil will not devalue... while all wealthy Brazilians were pulling their money out of the country ahead of the announcement. Rumors of leaks of info prior to today's announcement.
Wed Jan 13 17:17:33 EST 1999
wally: there are two types of imvestors. one looks at the market value, the other one looks at locking in at attractive interest rates. everybody has to determine for him/herself what is more important; the total value of the portefeuille or the yield. any more questions? p.s.: the real greedy ones who try to make the fast buck by outsmarting the market usually do not succeed. i speak out of 20 years experience in emerging markets.
Wed Jan 13 17:42:47 EST 1999
anonymous: wally... what is your last name?
Wed Jan 13 17:45:14 EST 1999
anonymous: We all know a regime shift in coming at the IMF/World Bank. Away from hot money capital to burden sharing. So, my friends, don't look to the IMF/World Bank to provide a takeout bid anymore. I think this the debate taking place in Washington today.
Wed Jan 13 18:05:26 EST 1999
anonymous: Wally: My question was more rhetorical. I leave you to make the correct judgment about the composition and value of your portfolio. The issue is the relative value of corporates vs treasuries, and whether the credit crunch seen in the 3Q of last year (especially with regard to emerging markets issuers) has dissipated.
Wed Jan 13 19:59:02 EST 1999
benny: For Wally: I agree out of also a long time of experience: It is difficult to make quick money with emerging market bonds. But if you buy them for a long term and for the high intererst, you might have after some time the happy surprise to find you with a much higher fortune than you ever waited for. Imagine: If you bought today Russia 2018 for 21%, let's say for 1 Mio. US$, and under the condition that Russia pays the interest on this bond, you will have for the next 19 years an income of 500'000 US$ a year. It would not be very bad.
Wed Jan 13 20:19:02 EST 1999
clota: They´ve already defaulted..they´ve already devalued....aren´t the Ru Prins looking better everyday at 6 cents ???
Wed Jan 13 20:30:08 EST 1999
vinicius: As far as I have seen is one of the only emerging market bonds which did not loose worth in the last days the DEM 9 3/8% Russia, which is still on 41/45. Interesting, isn't it?
Wed Jan 13 21:32:24 EST 1999
anonymous: Spanky o Spanky please please I need you !!! PLEASE !! SPANK ME SPANK ME for not having sold ALL my Brasil positions... I ONLY SOLD MY C BONDS !! I didn't change my REAIS because I was going to CAFE FOTO for 2 and later to ANTICUARIO for an encore... please forgive me... PHANTOM
Wed Jan 13 21:52:36 EST 1999
anonymous: Bot some EI's and C'Bonds today = locked in great return for the next few years ... Everyone knew this was coming...
Wed Jan 13 22:07:50 EST 1999
anonymous: in three days another 8% deval in Brasil, then 3 days later another 8% deval... that will take us to over 25% compounded deval by next thursday. Someone tell me how will this affect Brasil's capacity to pay (since it becomes more competitive) and how it "destroys" just about every corporate name in Brasil...i.e. Sabesp, Globo, Ford, Comtel, CSN, Arisco, Unibanco, etc... Guess I should buy YAHOO
Wed Jan 13 22:10:33 EST 1999
Omar: I agree with benny and wally, regardless of self great standing nobody can really time or predict the markets. EM bonds should be bought for yield. Patience and little or no leverage will provide the best rewards.
Wed Jan 13 22:14:53 EST 1999
anonymous: I can not believe what happened today. This day will be remembered as a turning point for the worst. I was never able to go and see Michael Jordan play live... luv ya SPANKY
Wed Jan 13 22:19:01 EST 1999
anonymous: hey GIRLS ,buy YAHOO and suscribe to my newsletter (I recommend gold) THE WORLD IS COMING TO AN END, Luv ya Spanky (Ralfie)
Wed Jan 13 22:29:41 EST 1999
anonymous: The central bank said about $700 million left Brazil, or about one-third less than traders earlier in the day estimated had fled the country
Thu Jan 14 03:09:52 EST 1999
Cciano: I am still whistling as my two digit yields keep on running. so what?
Thu Jan 14 03:35:51 EST 1999
optimist: If Brasil fails to hold real band, and devalues more then 10% there should begin problems with NDF's, which will inevitably weaken local banks. Wonder , can somebody assess brasilian banks exposure under NDF contracts?? What devaluation level is tolerable by brz bnks?
Thu Jan 14 04:25:51 EST 1999
wally: somebody wanted to know my last name: HELLMIG
Thu Jan 14 06:09:22 EST 1999
prin: Brazil outflow $1.095 bln less then expected ???!!!
Thu Jan 14 07:05:13 EST 1999
dyadya venya: mkt talk yesterday was that outflows in BZL were going to be at least 1.5bn and could reach 2-3 Bn. European stocks have recovered some lost ground this AM which has also given a bid tone to the Bradies. WSJ articles are mixed in response to the deval. I do not see how it can hold. Argie is getting hurt more at this point. Prins at 6 looks great if you can wait three years to obtain a value of 25-30.... Any margin calls goin on out there? Any not being met? I think that this will be a big diference from last summer/russia default/deval bçause there is less leverage.
Thu Jan 14 07:52:33 EST 1999
anonymous: C bond back to 51. Seeing buyers at better levels ?
Thu Jan 14 08:02:32 EST 1999
anonymous: If capital outflows continue, Brazil has three options: further currency devaluation, using capital controls or raising interest rates.The market expects daily outflow of $2 billion to $2.5 billion. If it's less than that, good; if it's more, then it will be very bad.Pele
Thu Jan 14 08:14:12 EST 1999
benny: To Omar: I tell you my experience which leads me to the position of more looking toward the yield and only after to the capital: First, years ago, I bought BNDES and Nafinsa in CHF when they were 53%: they paid years long their interest and at the end the capital: then came the Escom in FinRand. They paid in ComRand and the return over 4 years was about 16% including the same capital in the end like in the beginning: then came UDSSR CHF, DEM-Bonds. That was in 92/93. I bought them for 42%, they (Russia) paid correctly and in the end the full 100%, then the Mexiko, then the Venezuela and after the Brazil. And, Wally, it didn't take even that long to get twice your invested capital, I would say more or less 18 - 24 months. But these 24 months you must wait but you get your intrests.. Show me a share which is better.
Thu Jan 14 08:41:54 EST 1999
anonymous: Brazilian companies up to their eyeballs in foreign currency debt are going to have problems. Especially hard hit will be utilities such as Light Servicos de Eletricidade, with $1.2 billion in dollar debt, company Eletropaulo Metropolitana SA and Cesp, which before the devaluation had 80 percent, or $3.8 billion, of its debt in foreign currency.
Thu Jan 14 08:51:47 EST 1999
anonymous: Curious to see how the major houses are taking an extremely NEGATIVE view of Brazil's FX policy revaluation. They simplisticaly compare it to Thailand and Russia devaluations... Salomon, Morgan Stanley must be very very SHORT Brazil... Yesterday outflow RUMORS were up to 4BB - lets see what rumor goes out today...also RUMORS came out in Venezuela - that an OLD DINO was to be President of Central Bank (MAZA ZABALA)... just traders trying to make an honest living .... Cheetah
Thu Jan 14 09:03:53 EST 1999
anonymous: Sabesp has to be toast. They have a ton of Short term debt, a US$275 million Euro maturing in March and Reais Revenues (good luck in collecting). To top it off, the govt of Sao Paulo is the main shareholder, not exactly deep pockets right now.
Thu Jan 14 09:20:23 EST 1999
anonymous: Brazil's government and companies such as Cia. Energetica de Sao Paulo, have about $225 billion in foreign-currency obligations. About $11 billion matures this year. What's more, about one-fifth of the government's 314 billion real ($240 billion) domestic debt is indexed to the dollar. The increased costs of repaying that debt may set back efforts to close a budget deficit projected at about $64 billion and bring down interest rates -- the reason for the devaluation.
Thu Jan 14 09:57:57 EST 1999
anonymous: FYI Sabesp has funded the March maturity... and remember the Sao Paulo Governor is big supporter of Cardoso and reforms...
Thu Jan 14 11:24:23 EST 1999
anonymous: I luvvvvvv ittttttt!!!!!! All the Elvis personators out in full force because I was sooooooooooooooo rightttttttttttt on "Seeing Eye Dog" Bonds....... Scroll back and look at the discussions with all the Geniuses on this WebSite.. All the Germans loved C Bonds 12 points higher... By the way, you are all wasting your time looking at fundamentals. They don't matter and never will. What matters is flow and supply and demand.. and the tide is going out on the emerging markets.. I hope the policy makers realize that and abandon these depression policies.. Let the currencies go, restructuring domestic debt, and raise revenues through speculation taxes... M. Camdey
Thu Jan 14 11:29:59 EST 1999
anonymous: unable to fathom the enemy
Thu Jan 14 11:44:16 EST 1999
anonymous: Markets are still nervous, with lots of rumors flying around about more devaluation, bankrupt funds, and more resignations,it's mostly just rumors, but it shows how chaotic the market is
Thu Jan 14 12:31:33 EST 1999
anonymous: After the agencies got burned on Asia, they may decide not to give any countries the benefit of the doubt. "Standard & Poor's Corp. cut its credit rating for the country and said its outlook for Brazil is negative, sparking further concern about Brazil's ability to repay its debt."
Thu Jan 14 13:39:26 EST 1999
anonymous: Can anyone give me a current (1-14-98 1:39 pm eastern us time) quote on russia '28
Thu Jan 14 13:51:44 EST 1999
anonymous: <<01-14-99 Cciano: (62.81.74.210) I am still whistling as my two digit yields keep on running. so what?>>100% right!!! Grüsse Fred
Thu Jan 14 13:55:14 EST 1999
anonymous: Hi Spanky,GoldFeb $287,is that you recommendation????
Thu Jan 14 13:55:50 EST 1999
anonymous: Emerging Markets, R.I.P!!!!! This is the end, my friend!
Thu Jan 14 13:56:57 EST 1999
Omar: Only the short term traders need to be concerned with day to day price fluctuations, I'm enjoying the 2 digit returns also cCiano Saludos
Thu Jan 14 13:59:51 EST 1999
anonymous: Russia 28 : 25.500 29.000 1:55 pm gmt
Thu Jan 14 14:00:19 EST 1999
anonymous: The end is coming is right !!!, I'm also a member of a suicidal cult in a recruiting mission and pay spanky (ralfie) to scare all of you.
Thu Jan 14 14:12:35 EST 1999
anonymous: Omar: this isn't about market vol.. this is about Latin America's ability to attract capital so they can continue servicing their massive mountain of debt... i think you should refocus your efforts to country cash flows.. can they pay if they are cut-off from the capital markets? will the IMF continue to be the take-out bid for private "hot money" investors? these are these issues, my friend.. not price action... ADIOS and Good Luck!!
Thu Jan 14 14:14:27 EST 1999
anonymous: Deutschie.. Why buy Gold in a deflationary environment??
Thu Jan 14 14:38:19 EST 1999
Omar: Servicing debt is not really the problem its rolling over maturing debt what becomes an issue with "hot money" investors, however with more individual/long term investors playing a role (as opposed to speculators) a country can continue rolling over its maturing debt as long as cupons are paid.
Thu Jan 14 14:39:46 EST 1999
anonymous: If EM bonds are no good, what's your recommendation anon. ?
Thu Jan 14 14:46:38 EST 1999
anonymous: Caves in Montana. freeze dried food... and Amazon.com and yhoo stock.. and, o yes, my Elmo doll
Thu Jan 14 14:47:51 EST 1999
Cciano: Sorry, but I can't imagine Brazil cut off from int'l finance. The consequences for the rest of the world would be absolutely unbearable. I admit they are in a big mess, but others are even worse. There might come attacks against the real and more outflows, but IMF etc. are quite aware of the danger and will have to act in order. I'm no member of doomsday-end is near-suicide brigade, I will enjoy life and yields for a good couple of years to come. Stay calm and keep cool. That's it.
Thu Jan 14 14:49:23 EST 1999
anonymous: Omar: how many long term investors are going to put money in Latin America in the next 6 months?
Thu Jan 14 14:50:06 EST 1999
Omar: Hola Cciano, notice how doomsday sayers dont't let their address show ???. Saludos
Thu Jan 14 14:53:02 EST 1999
Omar: Anonymous: only a few smart enough to stay away from Yahoo, 5% treasury bils or ever declinig commodities. Greetings
Thu Jan 14 14:53:33 EST 1999
anonymous: Cciano: sometimes the global economy has to take pain. The bailouts that started in Mexico are the reason for most of the global imbalances. Markets need to clear. Prices need to adjust. The Real Plan was never real. It was based on easy money from the G3 that forced capital into Brazil which financed a huge borrowing binge by both the private and public sector. The game is now up and the consequences are painful, Cciano. Good luck.
Thu Jan 14 15:01:10 EST 1999
Cciano: Ok. let the global economy have its pain, I've got my yields. And if you believe in nothing but crash, what are YOU going to do, besides scaring and hiding your adress, my friend? (Que sesión mas marchosa hoy!)
Thu Jan 14 15:08:24 EST 1999
Cciano: Hola, Omar, a veces me parece, que solo son unos pocos inversores "turistas" que tocan tierra, los demas están en las nubes, o peor, chiflados. Un cordial saludo.
Thu Jan 14 15:11:08 EST 1999
anonymous: Why is that being a realist is being some whacko end of the world freak? Cciano, I thought you wanted to have a wise discussion, but I guess you just want me to hold your hand and say everything will be o.k. and YHOO! will continue to go higher.. Get real Cciano!
Thu Jan 14 15:14:54 EST 1999
Cciano: The only thing I asked you is put in my comment below. Any answer?
Thu Jan 14 15:19:11 EST 1999
anonymous: Buy gold or be doomed forever!!!!!
Thu Jan 14 15:26:00 EST 1999
Cciano: Yes, I was waiting for this one. Anglogold e.g.? Or some real estate in eastern Germany? Great! Next step: I will subscribe Fuchsbriefe and become a real wise man.
Thu Jan 14 15:27:16 EST 1999
anonymous: These guys buy GOLD,since 1980,and hold it,it is a legitimate investment,even if there is no income whatsoever,vielleicht bekommen sie irgendwann mal recht,Grüsse aus Pankow
Thu Jan 14 15:31:47 EST 1999
Alex: Anglogold was not bad when you could buy it with the financial Rand,and everybody was afraid of investing in RSA,real estate in Eastern Germany: You have to know what and where to buy,but its now cheaper than in France/Belgium/NL/Poland. can you imagine???Greetings
Thu Jan 14 15:35:58 EST 1999
unpourtous: Hey anon. Have you ever heard of QEX resources (gold mining). It's one of the Junior issues on the Vancouver exchange. I have 600 shares that I'd be willing to part with for the right price.
Thu Jan 14 15:40:54 EST 1999
anonymous: Gold Feb 287.50 +0.50 DOW dwn 225 and gold dead in the water
Thu Jan 14 16:19:00 EST 1999
anonymous: Hello Girls!! I am back and She-Bonds have a 40 handle!! Spanky
Thu Jan 14 17:18:35 EST 1999
anonymous: hahahha, u r a funny guy.
Thu Jan 14 17:44:43 EST 1999
anonymous: BUENOS AIRES, Jan 14 (Reuters) - Argentine economists said on Thursday that neighboring Brazil's devaluation has solved nothing and it cannot avoid a compulsory debt restructuring reminiscent of Argentina's confiscation of dollars in 1990. Hate to say this GIRLS, we may see a 30 handle on SHE-Bonds. Man with neighbors like Argentina, who need's enemies. They love to dance on graves! Spanky.
Thu Jan 14 17:46:51 EST 1999
anonymous: why are you calling everybody GIRLS???Is there something wrong with you?? Are you sure this is the right site???No offence meant,Lady!!!
Thu Jan 14 17:49:19 EST 1999
anonymous: Because Girls just wanna have fun. I am just having fun taking your money. Spanky
Thu Jan 14 17:59:58 EST 1999
anonymous: ok,so you call yourself "girl" Ralfie?? That's really weird!!! and you can't take anybody's money because you did not have a short position!! Sorry for that personal remark.
Thu Jan 14 18:02:01 EST 1999
anonymous: "Le bonheur n'est pas chose aisé: il est très difficele de le trouver en nous, et impossible de le trouver ailleurs." (Nicolas Chamfort)
Thu Jan 14 18:07:21 EST 1999
anonymous: Come on, froggie snobbie. Post in English. Napolean ain't in power anymore. C-bonjour, COWBOY!!!!
Thu Jan 14 18:08:27 EST 1999
anonymous: ...d'accord,mais malheureusement on a un(e) daingue qui essaye de demolir notre site,ca c'est tres regrettable, presqu'aucune message,salutations distinguees a vous
Thu Jan 14 18:09:10 EST 1999
anonymous: foxletter - they pay you to come
Thu Jan 14 18:10:02 EST 1999
anonymous: <<Come on, froggie snobbie. Post in English. Napolean ain't in power anymore. C-bonjour, COWBOY!!!!>>and you were complaining about censorship,even more weird,Madam
Thu Jan 14 18:15:55 EST 1999
anonymous: Mauch's (a director who monitored the health of Brazilian banks) resignation and reports the central bank sold dollars to prop up the currency after an 8.26 percent slide yesterday sent interest rates on one-day bank deposits as high as 71.65 percent, more than twice the nominal benchmark
Thu Jan 14 19:20:58 EST 1999
anonymous: LatAm governments need to adopt the USD as official currency and use fiscal discipline
Thu Jan 14 19:34:20 EST 1999
PILLX: Russia To Service Fully MinFins In '99 - Govt Official Dow Jones Newswires MOSCOW -- The Russian government will meet its payments on Ministry of Finance bonds, or MinFins, in 1999, First Deputy Finance Minister Viktor Khristenko said Thursday. Khristenko didn't provide any further details. Russia is scheduled to pay $1.5 billion on its MinFin 3 series in May. MinFins are dollar-denominated bonds issued in a number of tranches to compensate companies and individuals whose foreign currency accounts were frozen in 1991. Because they are dollar-denominated, the bonds have been heavily traded on international debt markets and many are owned by foreign investors. Russia faces a total of $17.5 billion foreign debt payments in 1999, but hopes to reschedule about half of the payments. -By Andrea Chipman; 7095-974-8055; lrousek@ap.org
Thu Jan 14 22:30:33 EST 1999
clota: Does anybody know why TBH rallied in NY after SP closed ? Just shortcovering or something else....?
Thu Jan 14 22:30:35 EST 1999
clota: Does anybody know why TBH rallied in NY after SP closed ? Just shortcovering or something else....?
Thu Jan 14 22:41:27 EST 1999
anonymous: What's TBH ?
Thu Jan 14 23:20:56 EST 1999
anonymous: if you don't know what tbh is and can't pull up a description, you should'nt be reading the things that Spanky-lesbi says
Thu Jan 14 23:25:52 EST 1999
Cheetah: Brazil equities down 10% and USA down 2% BUT Mexico was UP 2% !! That does not look like EM Investors rushing out of Latinos... Keep calm, buy into the high yielding better names and sit back, read, enjoy the family, develop a hobby...
Fri Jan 15 00:01:57 EST 1999
anonymous: Oh baby baby it's a wild world >>>> THIS JUST IN >>> YAHOO AOL and AMZN are offering to create the CYBER Bonds, OUT with the Bradys ! Here come the CYBER's: all EM debt to be exchange for new shares in the Cyber Consortiom Brazil is first. Spanky -luuuvvv y aaallll !!!
Fri Jan 15 00:08:15 EST 1999
anonymous: Cheat-dah: Are you crazy? Manage risk is the top priority here. What is the end-game in Brazil? Domestic debt restructuring? More IMF aid? Currency board? Hyperinflation? When it is resolved, I will get back into the buying mode. Until them I rec staying in the bunker. Thanks, Fred
Fri Jan 15 00:53:42 EST 1999
anonymous: China coming back on the Radar screen in a big way. Credit crunch city.
Fri Jan 15 02:32:55 EST 1999
anonymous: Summers sees Russia probably unable to meet its debt payments in 99.
Fri Jan 15 02:38:07 EST 1999
anonymous: all of its debt payments? for sure not all. Summers is the reason Russia won't meet its payments. He is the bozo that pulled the plug on the Kierynko Government and now telling Brazil to cut the Real loose.
Fri Jan 15 02:56:09 EST 1999
anonymous: <<Keep calm, buy into the high yielding better names and sit back, read, enjoy the family, develop a hobby...>>please don't forget that most investors are on margin,they will be sold out or have been already,therefore it is so important not to buy these bonds on credit,rgds.Charles
Fri Jan 15 03:26:47 EST 1999
anonymous: Charles: do you have an indication on c bond opening?
Fri Jan 15 06:51:42 EST 1999
anonymous: Brazil 27 52.00-54.00 rgds.Charles,be careful!!!
Fri Jan 15 07:55:00 EST 1999
anonymous: Brazil has floated the real. It will be oficially announced shortly.
Fri Jan 15 07:58:37 EST 1999
anonymous: they had no choice,sticking to an overvalued currency was no solution either. rgds.Charles
Fri Jan 15 08:01:07 EST 1999
anonymous: Fasten you seatbetls !
Fri Jan 15 08:07:12 EST 1999
anonymous: hallo Spankie,welcome back,how's Gold opening today??? greetings
Fri Jan 15 08:37:52 EST 1999
anonymous: the market liked the free float of the real. Bovespa is rallying 650 pts (lower interst ), C's offered @ 51+
Fri Jan 15 08:38:27 EST 1999
Alex: hi verybody,check ou the BOVESPA,that does not look like a crash to me,greetings
Fri Jan 15 08:47:51 EST 1999
anonymous: " Brazil's decision to let its currency weaken raises the cost of repaying almost $300 billion of dollar-linked debt, sapping government efforts to narrow its budget deficit and companies' efforts to survive a punishing economic slump"
Fri Jan 15 08:49:57 EST 1999
anonymous: BOVESPA at 5829 +772 +15.26%
Fri Jan 15 08:59:08 EST 1999
anonymous: Clta: Buy all the TBH you can get a hold on !! Pele
Fri Jan 15 09:02:46 EST 1999
anonymous: TBH/UBB/ELP etc.etc.
Fri Jan 15 09:15:57 EST 1999
optimist: oh boyz, remember rus. story - first days after devaluation market desperately thinks stocks are safe heaven - but 3 days later paradigm changes dramatically .I m not alarming, but please , take it sober. Secondly , dont forget - NDF's , gonna be real pain. Local Brz banks have: 1. Local ccy loan exposure - looks ugly now 2. foreign ccy loan exposure - ugly for borrowers 3. Huge negative reval. in reais of their "C,IDU,EI pos" which are under water (they love their paper at 62, so enjoying it now ) And of cos NDF's, NDF,s, NDF's...
Fri Jan 15 09:39:02 EST 1999
optimist: By the way, isnt BOVESPA priced in reals??? If so - its value -35% not +15!! What mkt takes positively - is desire of BRZ to hold reserves, but they ll be spend on for. debt servicing - just like that..
Fri Jan 15 10:30:15 EST 1999
Alex: BOVESPA 6200 +1143= +22.60% hi Optimist,don't turn Pessimist
Fri Jan 15 10:34:40 EST 1999
JPC: Main difference from Russian expererience investors don't expect securities firms to pare back their inventories and trading activity as they did last yea after sustaining trading losses . Also absent now is the worry about big sales of bonds by distressed hedge funds trying to raise cash. Stock market is agood place to park some money if you are in involvd in Brazil
Fri Jan 15 10:37:11 EST 1999
anonymous: C's offered @ 54 +
Fri Jan 15 10:37:23 EST 1999
anonymous: so SPANKY, do u have any clue what are you gonna do now? what happened to 30 handle on C's? I know one thing for sure though: one of these days you will make the employee of the month at McDonalds.
Fri Jan 15 10:42:01 EST 1999
anonymous: SPANKY has a job in the german financial press,don't worry,he gets paid wherever the C Bond is quoted,rgds.Fred
Fri Jan 15 10:46:51 EST 1999
anonymous: Most of the trading volume is short covering
Fri Jan 15 10:57:31 EST 1999
anonymous: `People reckon that the free float is a better idea than wasting billions of dollars in reserves propping up the real Still, it's the difference between throwing yourself out of a 40th floor window and throwing yourself out of a 20th floor<BR> window -- still not great!''
Fri Jan 15 11:02:09 EST 1999
Alex: BOVESPA:6319 +1262 = +24.95% a gain of almost 25% in several hours looks like a sign of confidence to me
Fri Jan 15 11:05:24 EST 1999
anonymous: The C-bond accounts for 15 percent of global emerging market bond trades (not the Bovespa); I'll wait to buy it until it gets back to it breaks the downtreand,I may buy corporate bonds such as Petrobras as well, as a weaker currency will make it more competitive because it sells product in dollars. Liza
Fri Jan 15 11:08:41 EST 1999
anonymous: shrewd girl, does your husband know about it?
Fri Jan 15 11:11:30 EST 1999
anonymous: we decided to refrain from personal remarks,Sir
Fri Jan 15 11:21:55 EST 1999
Alex: http://quote.yahoo.com/a5?u check that out,friends
Fri Jan 15 11:41:06 EST 1999
anonymous: FYI Liza Petrobras IMPORTS in USD - get your thoughts on track !! CSN EXPORTS 40% of it's production... Casper
Fri Jan 15 11:42:24 EST 1999
anonymous: FYI Liza Petrobras IMPORTS in USD - get your thoughts on track !! CSN EXPORTS 40% of it's production... Casper
Fri Jan 15 11:42:35 EST 1999
anonymous: I was soooooo wronggggg sooooooo SPANKKKKKKKKKKKKKK me!!!!!! Luv ya, Spanky... P.S. still think they default on domestic debt.
Fri Jan 15 11:47:01 EST 1999
anonymous: anyone have a quote on SHE-bonds?
Fri Jan 15 11:48:27 EST 1999
anonymous: hi SpankMan,how are you doing??Defaulting on domestic debt happened quite often,defaulting on foreign debt is another story,rgds.JPaul
Fri Jan 15 11:52:12 EST 1999
anonymous: agree.. in fact, defaulting on domestic debt creates more cash flow to pay external debt. but, cuts country off from the markets. this ain't bullish, but hey Mexico stocks were up 10% after they let the peso rip. SPANK THE MONKEY!
Fri Jan 15 11:56:56 EST 1999
anonymous: Gold Feb 286.80 -0.60
Fri Jan 15 12:01:23 EST 1999
anonymous: all right GIRLS.. Fred has outted me. So SPANK ME!
Fri Jan 15 12:02:56 EST 1999
anonymous: immer die Ruhe Junge,no stress,greetings Fred
Fri Jan 15 12:06:31 EST 1999
anonymous: C's @ 55+
Fri Jan 15 12:16:41 EST 1999
wally: whereto has the fourty handle disappeared? bovespa up 27% and still dealing.
Fri Jan 15 12:22:46 EST 1999
unpourtous: Marc Mobius says he's buying Russian Euros: link (may expire soon) : http://fnews.yahoo.com/street/view.html summary: For the New York Stock Exchange-listed, closed-end fund Templeton Russia ( (NYSE:TRF - news) ), he's buying dollar-denominated eurobonds, even though the government has defaulted on some of its other debt obligations. Why? Because Mobius thinks they're cheap (they currently trade between 24 cents and 36 cents to the dollar, depending on maturity). He believes the government will do all it can to keep current on its eurobonds so it can one day issue more of them to raise dollars from foreign bond buyers.
Fri Jan 15 12:39:12 EST 1999
Cciano: I'm still whistling.... Spanky, you like me to hold your hand, telling you that everything is allright???
Fri Jan 15 12:43:50 EST 1999
anonymous: Hi Cciano,for him it was always allright,he was never short or long,just writing his Fuchsbriefe comments,regards Charles
Fri Jan 15 13:15:21 EST 1999
Omar: Hola cciano, amigos - invertir en mercados emergentes no es una carrera de velocidad es una carrera de resistencia. El que persevere alcanza..un saludo. EM investing is not about speed but rather about endurance. Greetings
Fri Jan 15 13:31:49 EST 1999
Cciano: Seems our friend has left the office, he probably needs a weekend's rest to recover his short on fingertips. ;-)
Fri Jan 15 13:51:25 EST 1999
view from DC (unpourtous: Sold some of my Korea '08 and Picked up some Russia '28 today. I'm encouraged by IMF's Fisher's pledge to remain "engaged" in Russia & to pay attention to recent errors made by the fund. For bradynetters inclined to dig a little take a look at a paper Written by Fisher on the subject of the IMF's role as the internationa lender of last resort, moral hazard, etc. Views are music to the ears of EM investors.
Fri Jan 15 13:52:43 EST 1999
view from DC (unpourtous: http://www.imf.org/external/np/speeches/1999/010399.HTM sorry forgot the link
Fri Jan 15 13:53:30 EST 1999
anonymous: Oh Cciano do you think this is over? I sure don't!
Fri Jan 15 14:01:51 EST 1999
anonymous: O yea, u all loved it 20 points higher and you're beating your chests now! Hey, but I still love all of you. And, note the IMF is changing their tune on Russia and doing a Clintonesque 'mea culpa" .. So though I only 10 points instead of 15 on C-Bonds, my Russian positons are up even bigger on % basis. What have we learned in this whole episode? 1) we saw a 40 handle on CBonds in January -- as I said; 2) I am the P (profit) and you are the L (loss) in the P&L game... and that, my friends, is what matters the most in this game of trading. Now go thump your chests about how right you were. Luv ya, Spanky.
Fri Jan 15 14:06:37 EST 1999
Omar: Profit & Loss is as artificial as the period that you arbitrarily establish to compare dear Spanky (just look at some hedge fund numbers). Long term profit (yield) is was really matters. To unpourtuos thanks for the link. Greetings
Fri Jan 15 14:07:34 EST 1999
anonymous: unenlightened, loves the people, easily angered, hasty to act, arrogant, weak.
Fri Jan 15 14:10:23 EST 1999
anonymous: hey who's angry. I luv you all! in fact, you have been beatin' me up for the past month.
Fri Jan 15 14:11:56 EST 1999
anonymous: poor commander, rocky horror insult show
Fri Jan 15 14:24:02 EST 1999
anonymous: We luv you too Spank, just keep the schizo under control OK ?
Fri Jan 15 14:53:09 EST 1999
Alex: ist ja gut,jetzt beruhige Dich mal,SPANKY cool down,it is a good idea to have a contrarian view but it should not become ridiculous BS, greetings to all
Fri Jan 15 15:12:20 EST 1999
Alex: http://quote.yahoo.com/a5?o=l:0 CHECK THAT OUT,FRIENDS
Fri Jan 15 15:27:48 EST 1999
anonymous: wisdom, knowledge, credibility, strictness, benevolent, courage, skillful, analyst, unconcerned by fame, unconcerned by punishment, tranquil, obscure, upright, self-disciplined, clever /inventive, all-encompassing talents, strong commander.
Fri Jan 15 15:31:02 EST 1999
anonymous: no just muddle through.....if possible,rgds.Charles
Fri Jan 15 15:35:20 EST 1999
anonymous: is muddling through an ideology like liberalism and socialism, Mr. Watson? or is it the end of all ideologies?
Fri Jan 15 15:56:02 EST 1999
anonymous: THE MUDDLE THROUGH consists of no ideology, it consists only of muddling,hopefully,through(the problems), by means of improvising,because, and there you might agree,one never knows!!!! Please do not ask:"knows what??" rgds.Charles Watson
Fri Jan 15 16:36:41 EST 1999
anonymous: The market is about timing, and anyone who tells you otherwise should buy BNDES in Swiss Francs and retire like Freddy. My comment ealier should have read 'who pays for this pseudo-analysis?' to dispel any misunderstanding that my ire was directed at corporate bonds per se. MMS' parent S&P should be familiar with the question of timing as (in contrast to Moody's) they were rumored to have been poised to upgrade Mexico just before the devaluation in 1994.
Fri Jan 15 18:25:22 EST 1999
Cciano: I like today's closing prices, not as ugly as yesterday, but for sure, it is NOT all over yet. But I'm whistling a little louder... I heard of INFLOWS today, anybody could confirm this?
Fri Jan 15 19:39:43 EST 1999
Cheetah: nope, 375mm out
Fri Jan 15 19:40:59 EST 1999
Cheetah: Ralphie don't forget you were expecting Veni DCB's < 50...
Fri Jan 15 20:17:19 EST 1999
Tunc: Time has never been better to buy Turkish equity then ever. Do not miss the chance.
Fri Jan 15 22:49:02 EST 1999
anonymous: I've watched about 10 blow-ups like this and the worst never ends with the devaluation. There's still the question of a swelling budget and trade gaps, high interest rates and a lack of credit.
Fri Jan 15 23:18:09 EST 1999
anonymous: Hey cheat! quit dancing on my grave. i am a trader. can reverse quickly. someday we will see 50 on dcbs. maybe not this month. maybe not next. but, hope you realize what is happening in the greater scheme of themes. Luv ya, Ralfie.
Sat Jan 16 03:44:02 EST 1999
anonymous: Trader??Ich dachte Schriftsteller!!! Schönes Wochenende.rgds.Charles
Sat Jan 16 03:49:44 EST 1999
anonymous: Well said Charlie
Sat Jan 16 03:59:34 EST 1999
Omar: Irrational market behavior ?; 12% junk bonds from PLANET HOLLYWOOD trade higher than the 12.75% Russia 28 !!!, so I guess some "traders" really believe that movie stars and a moribund tacky restaurant are a better risk than Russia...
Sat Jan 16 06:39:36 EST 1999
Alex: hi Omar,the difference is the clientele who buys the one or the other Bonds,we wouldn't touch US Corp.Bonds at these levels, but some US investors never touch anything foreign,saludos
Sat Jan 16 06:40:59 EST 1999
Alex: hi Omar,the difference is the clientele who buys the one or the other Bonds,we wouldn't touch US Corp.Bonds at these levels, but some US investors never touch anything foreign,saludos
Sat Jan 16 09:15:40 EST 1999
anonymous: "...any effort to revive inflation must be more than monetary; it must literally destroy supply, because monetary ease that stimulates demand will simply call forth more supply. a painless easing of credit conditions is bound to fail because it may very well prop up supply much more than it is likely to boost demand." (Ed Yardini, Deutsche Bank Research)
Sat Jan 16 11:02:30 EST 1999
anonymous: what are you trying to say with EdYardeni and inflation????
Sat Jan 16 12:33:26 EST 1999
anonymous: The real is devalued and the markets rally(?) What gives? As long as the market believes ok. That's assumption is very risky though. What we have now is a situation of increased uncertainty and risk. The events from last week were very "strange". Watch out! Maybe prices are being manipulated so that the "smart" money can get out(?), Trader
Sat Jan 16 13:07:04 EST 1999
anonymous: it is too hard to manipulate a market of that magnitude,of course these markets are very risky,no doubt about it and the recent crisis is another reminder of that,but isn't risk taking our business??
Sat Jan 16 13:18:33 EST 1999
anonymous: Paying back dollar-denominated debt will be more difficult. Brazil needs to roll over $9 billion of domestic debt this month, $12 billion next month and $15.4 billion in March. But it has external obligations of roughly $230 billion, of which $145 billion is owed by the private sector. This debt burden leaves the country disturbingly vulnerable if a loss of investor confidence keeps interest rates high. All of this is bad news for the U.S. economy and the Dow Jones Industrial Average, but good news for U.S. Treasuries. A Brazil in turmoil would be big trouble for the rest of a region that accounts for 20% of U.S. exports. But the drop in Treasury yields may be delayed, or at least slowed, by recent volatility in the dollar. This week's Barrons
Sat Jan 16 13:28:18 EST 1999
anonymous: as I said,muddle through!!!!rgds.Charles
Sat Jan 16 13:30:43 EST 1999
Alexander: no need to remind us of the difficult situation in Brazil,however a "meltdown"will be avoided,because its too dangerous for the world economy. How much cost 1000DOW points???greetings to ALL!!!
Sat Jan 16 13:36:15 EST 1999
wally: trader & others: prices are indirectly manipulated because yesterday huge short positions in brazil and southam had to be covered. let us expect a downward correction next week and after that??
Sat Jan 16 15:21:01 EST 1999
anonymous: re Yardini: more than easy money were needed to prevent deflation. eg. IMF policy; there weren't be any more korean chip or auto plants built any time soon; any potential output in russia, including even raw material output were in doubt as the system teeters. try to explain why the end of the cold war is deflatio- nary and how to "destroy supply" nowadays.
Sat Jan 16 15:27:41 EST 1999
Alexander: good question,I think the deflationary "waves" come from the reduction in military spending since 1990,and the overall budget reductions,this is then providing low interest rates
Sat Jan 16 15:36:36 EST 1999
anonymous: Recommendation for retail investors: Sea-Bond denture holders
Sat Jan 16 15:37:43 EST 1999
Alexander: <<Sea-Bond denture holder>>what is a Sea Bond??
Sat Jan 16 15:49:56 EST 1999
Omar: Another factor possibly helping to ease inflation pressure is the increasing role of "intellectual assets" which are not subject to production constraints. Greetings
Sat Jan 16 16:32:39 EST 1999
anonymous: the diffuculty at destroying supply is that income is destroyed either.
Sat Jan 16 16:36:13 EST 1999
anonymous: if we have the answers to the points we are discussing now ,we ALL BradyNet fans get us a NOBEL PRICE and Merriweather gets his taken away,rgds.Charles Watson
Sat Jan 16 17:27:08 EST 1999
anonymous: the strong correlation between war and inflation is based on greater commandeering & misuse of resources by BB. to be effec- tive in the long run, almost necessarily requires continued combat or, as in the case of the cold war, a large-scale threat on a sustained basis. (bogus war!?) the information age tech. makes either prospect unlikely, doesn't it?
Sat Jan 16 17:30:29 EST 1999
anonymous: probably anon means C-Bond.

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