Color of the Market Archive, Page #5
Color of the Market A R C H I V E 

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The Color of the Market has been an online meeting place for people interested in emerging market debt since 1996, and has undergone many changes in that time. We have discovered an old archive of Color of the Market messages, covering 5 months starting in late 1998. For the benefit of both old and new Bradynetters, we present this archive untouched.

Note: Back in these days, the forum software was greatly different than the Color of the Market that we are now accustomed to. Without the requirement of registration, the forum began to attract disrupters who would engage in vulgarities, name-calling, impersonation of users, and other childish hijinks. But if you can wade through the nonsense, some of the comments herein are historic, and prophetic.

Enjoy,
IDEAGlobal/BradyNet Staff

Tue Jan 26 10:39:32 EST 1999
optimist: Anon: where did you take 12 bio in sovereign BRZ debt, what debt? Local? Foreign?? Structured??? pliz, be mo' pecific! local debt with ave. duration of 7 months totals ard 100 bio USd even at current real rate..
Tue Jan 26 10:40:36 EST 1999
Dyadya Venya: To Anonymous: Linking the reduction in reserves solely to debt service of $12 Bn is a grave error. Capital flight is running at hundreds of millions of dollars a day, corporations need to pay on their $short term and $longer euros and trade current account flow could still impact reserves. Locals will look to protect their saving if political uncertainty accelerates - as it most likely will when the recession hits the people's pockets. Watch out Agentina, recession there if Brazil cant import from you.
Tue Jan 26 10:58:11 EST 1999
Alexander: http://www.berlinerboerse.de/ if you are looking for EMBonds in DM....
Tue Jan 26 10:58:25 EST 1999
anonymous: Unless they introduce capital controls.
Tue Jan 26 10:59:39 EST 1999
Alexander: http://www.berlinerboerse.de/
Tue Jan 26 11:00:55 EST 1999
anonymous: Alex: www.tulipbulbs.com Thanks Optimist for your comments. I'm pleased to see you busy. rgds spadolini
Tue Jan 26 11:04:49 EST 1999
anonymous: hehehehe,now they are nice,but 400yrs.ago there was the tulip-bulb-craze,as you know,rgds.Alex
Tue Jan 26 11:12:34 EST 1999
Alexander: http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u
Tue Jan 26 11:23:53 EST 1999
anonymous: Alex: You keep complaining that Spanky/Ralfie posts unrelated messages, but you are no better!. There are some many topics to talk (China, Brazil, Russia) and you insist on showing your portfolio of stocks!. Please , lets talk EM Bonds!.Rgds JPC
Tue Jan 26 11:28:03 EST 1999
anonymous: well,not as simple as that,I was showing the Markets and the biggest LatAm stock prices, meaning that a 6.5% rise in the BOVESPA doesn't look like a crashing economy to me,but that's only my opinion.Besides BGL I own no stocks at the moment.Rgds.Alex
Tue Jan 26 11:29:47 EST 1999
anonymous: ...and I am looking into buying more Ukraine,rgds.Alex
Tue Jan 26 12:22:38 EST 1999
anonymous: JPC, whoever you are, obviously you ain't seen nothing yet. Sans rancunes, Spadolini
Tue Jan 26 12:23:33 EST 1999
anonymous: <<doesn't look like a crashing economy to me>> Capital outflows of about 400 MM a day, currency devaluation (about 38 percent), high interest rates, steep economic recession (expected shrink of eco activity by 5.5% JP Morgan estimmates) , expected double digit inflation for 99, government intervention in the stock and debt market. Alex, what is crashing economy in your opinion? Rgds. JPC
Tue Jan 26 12:25:04 EST 1999
anonymous: Spadolini: ????? Rgds JPC
Tue Jan 26 12:29:09 EST 1999
Alexander: Hi JPC,the Russian economy was a little crashing last year,I guess.When things are looking bad ,isn't that a time to buy??or do you prefer to buy at par only??rgds.
Tue Jan 26 12:41:39 EST 1999
anonymous: As Uri V said I am looking at buying DCB's with US collateral. However I never buy in a downtrend. Today Brazilians Companies and investors flocked to dollars, reflecting heightened concern the government may not be able to repay its ballooning debts. I don't fight the trend. JPC
Tue Jan 26 12:49:41 EST 1999
Alexander: <<However I never buy in a downtrend>>you never know when a trend is moving in which direction,unless you are a prophet!!!2nd point <<the government may not be able to repay its ballooning debts>>they don't have to "repay" it, as long as they pay interest on their debt.
Tue Jan 26 12:51:53 EST 1999
anonymous: You don't need to be a prophet . Just to know a little about tech analysis !
Tue Jan 26 12:56:02 EST 1999
crivont: Crivont your financial adviser:^> view- time to buy stocks in Brazil, many companys very profitable are costing cents. If someone wants to make profits one or two years. don´t loose the train
Tue Jan 26 12:58:09 EST 1999
anonymous: LTCM knows a lot about tech.analysis.....
Tue Jan 26 13:03:50 EST 1999
anonymous: BOVESPA up ±8%
Tue Jan 26 13:48:44 EST 1999
anonymous: I just love the way BradyNet.com edits this chat room. Sounds like real free speech and of course it is all about a free market economy -- as long as your prices agree with me. This site nothin' but a bunch of BULL-CHAT!!!
Tue Jan 26 13:52:45 EST 1999
anonymous: feel free to hate us.
Tue Jan 26 13:57:37 EST 1999
anonymous: Mr. Bull-Chat, why don't you propose a non-bull topic of discussion? Shylock
Tue Jan 26 14:17:57 EST 1999
anonymous: "there is a definite risk of world financial collapse, and therefore reforms that include limits on capital flows and a stronger sense of Asian regionalism are important. I do not believe in the market fundamentalism that America believes in, and instead believe that global capitalism needs to be restrained in its cross border transactions, be it through disclosure, supervisory and prudential regulations, or outright controls". - Eisuke Sakakibara
Tue Jan 26 14:20:43 EST 1999
anonymous: Listen to Mr. Yen. Any comments?
Tue Jan 26 15:02:45 EST 1999
anonymous: pax americana
Tue Jan 26 15:39:54 EST 1999
anonymous: If you look back over recent years, 50 cents, 48 cents is about as low as the C's get. I don't think it's going to get worse in pricing. Some of the stories may get worse, but I don't think the prices will get worse.Brazil won't default on its debt, because it has been a huge destination for investment money. They have huge obligations to all the investment that's gone in. They've been an exporting entity for German, Japanese, and U.S. companies. It just wouldn't be in their interest to walk away from that.
Tue Jan 26 15:55:37 EST 1999
anonymous: Brazil has a much more vibrant economy than Russia Maybe they aren't going to have positive GDP this year, but it's a functioning capitalist economy. They collect taxes. It is not Russia.
Tue Jan 26 16:23:59 EST 1999
Alexander: Hi BULLCHAT,what seems to be the problem???
Tue Jan 26 16:39:28 EST 1999
anonymous: Alex: the story is 3 month old. t
Tue Jan 26 16:44:21 EST 1999
anonymous: sorry,looks to me like 6 lines old..... rgds.Alex
Tue Jan 26 20:50:03 EST 1999
anonymous: To Anonymous buyer of Brazil at 48.00: would you still think this a cheap price when they restructure the domestic debt? Regards. Shylock.
Tue Jan 26 23:21:16 EST 1999
anonymous: MOSCOW, Jan 26 (Reuters) - Russia, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) were on Tuesday to discuss issuing Russian gold-backed bonds, news agency Interfax said. HI SPANKY, finally something for you too. Regards
Wed Jan 27 04:55:13 EST 1999
anonymous: remember Pinay/Giscard!!! rgds.Alex
Wed Jan 27 10:19:48 EST 1999
anonymous: "Ist noch nichts zu sehen?", like Turgenjew starts his book "Väter und Söhne"..... still, there is nothing to see about the interest-payments on Russia 05 and Russia 18 due on january 24th. Nothing arrived yet at the banks. Where can the money be?
Wed Jan 27 10:58:36 EST 1999
anonymous: Sao Paulo threatened to default on its 11 billion real debt to the federal government unless officials agree to cut its interest rates.(Folha de S. Paulo). Pele
Wed Jan 27 11:26:08 EST 1999
anonymous: Hi Pele,isn't that now time to buy,or shall we wait until par??????Simon
Wed Jan 27 11:33:39 EST 1999
Doomsayer: Bulls made of paper don't have much momentum. But bulls made of solid gold will run you over.
Wed Jan 27 11:34:28 EST 1999
anonymous: Who will be the 1st Default in Brazil?
Wed Jan 27 11:40:44 EST 1999
anonymous: hallo Freund,hab Dich schon vermisst/we missed you Gold dwn.2.50 at 283.30 Platin dwn.4.70 at 348.- (unter 350,old Chartist!!!!) Oil ist 30¢ rauf/up........ von den Minen wollen wir jetzt lieber nicht reden!!! Lets forget about Gold Minig shares.....
Wed Jan 27 11:46:17 EST 1999
Doomsayer: Ich vermißte Sie auch, mein Freunde!
Wed Jan 27 11:55:25 EST 1999
anonymous: Simon: Buy what ? Is that you Alex? Pele
Wed Jan 27 13:49:46 EST 1999
Cheetah: The best time to BUY BUY BUY --- it takes GUTS.. something that Ralphie, Spanky, Elvis, Anony, does not have !!!
Wed Jan 27 15:00:24 EST 1999
anonymous: Russia 18 interest payment has been credited in bank, valuta 25th of january!
Wed Jan 27 15:54:42 EST 1999
Alexander: Hi Friends,well,it's maybe time to buy "OUR"Bonds,BRZ/VEN/RUSFed.& others. As usual,not too many at a time.Gold:We have to get an inflationary "wave" to get Gold out of the 280s,where from??How??And even then you are better off with Real Estate,especially at these mortgage rates. Many rgds.to all
Wed Jan 27 16:18:16 EST 1999
anonymous: Cheat-DAH: Are you sure you are not a SHEEP? Buyyyyy Buyyyyy Buyyyy. I think you will make a nice rack of lamb for the wolves out there. Thor.
Wed Jan 27 16:18:28 EST 1999
anonymous: Cheetah: you're gonna be eaten by the hyenas. BY,BY,BY. Shylock.
Wed Jan 27 16:20:04 EST 1999
anonymous: Bye-Bye, Cheat-DAH.
Wed Jan 27 16:21:23 EST 1999
anonymous: S&P anky is the KING!!!!
Wed Jan 27 16:21:33 EST 1999
anonymous: S&P anky is the KING!!!!
Wed Jan 27 16:22:37 EST 1999
anonymous: Spanky: you're almost as bright as the rating agencies. Shylock.
Wed Jan 27 16:23:18 EST 1999
anonymous: Yea, but my timing is better. Luv yea, S&Panky
Wed Jan 27 16:24:31 EST 1999
anonymous: Gold is Dead. Nietzche.
Wed Jan 27 16:25:07 EST 1999
anonymous: Hi Spanky,how can the Gold price go up,when every EM Country & others dump it daily??rgds.Alex
Wed Jan 27 16:48:15 EST 1999
anonymous: Hearing big debt-for-tax and debt-for-land deals being put together in Moscow. Eurobonds the currency of choice for the government and locals scrambling to buy the Russian Globals. Can anyone confirm? Also watch the French banks -- they are close to the Russians. Think we could see 40 on the Russian Globals by the end of Q1. Poor JP Morgan who is short a boat-load of the Globals. No wonder their stock was down big today. Cheers, Mark F.
Wed Jan 27 16:54:43 EST 1999
unpourtous: Nasty rumor about russian coupons today over in the russia forum Does anyone know if that rumor originated elsewhere, or was it specific to BradyNet?
Wed Jan 27 16:57:20 EST 1999
anonymous: unport: what rumor on the coupies??
Wed Jan 27 17:13:57 EST 1999
anonymous: "The Finance Ministry denies that Brazil will or needs to adopt a Bonex Plan,"
Wed Jan 27 17:19:16 EST 1999
anonymous: "01-27-99 Anonymous: I can confirm money is there, but it might be freezed until prins' affair is sorted out.That's life!!!! "
Wed Jan 27 17:21:23 EST 1999
unpourtous: That the '05 and '18 coupon payments were frozen at euroclear due to (legal action?) prin holders.
Wed Jan 27 17:32:19 EST 1999
anonymous: Impossible. Prin holders only have recourse to Vneshnecom Bank not the Ministry of Finance. Nice try Prin holders..
Wed Jan 27 17:49:24 EST 1999
anonymous: I can assure you all: the money for the Russia 18 arrived in specie in my bank. It is here, do not worry.
Wed Jan 27 17:57:06 EST 1999
unpourtous: I know but was this rumor started here or elsewhere?
Wed Jan 27 18:52:02 EST 1999
clota: Prins rallying big time, IAN´s lagging,..somebody spoke of a "merger" and then a Brady Plan...does this make sense ? what do you guys think..?
Wed Jan 27 21:06:27 EST 1999
anonymous: clota: Where did you hear this?
Wed Jan 27 23:01:30 EST 1999
CHEEEETAH: BUY BUY BUYYYYYYYY !!!!!! My recommendations from October are still UP over 10% plus coupons Spanky... you barely got the she-bonds right - BARELY but you missed BIG TIME on Venezuela DCB's, net of both you LOST LOST money !!! So get your act together and join CCIANO, Alex, Wally and myself in our double digit coupon clipping !!!!!!!!!
Wed Jan 27 23:04:01 EST 1999
CHEEEEEEETAHHH: Cemex had a 30 handle when the TEQUILA cris just like GLOBOPAR of Brazil has a 40 handle now.... TIME TO BUY BUY BUYYYYYYYYYYY!!!!!!!!!!!
Thu Jan 28 04:06:55 EST 1999
Alexander: Hi Clota,in the end,that will be the solution,but it might take several years. Hi Cheetah,I agree,but let's keep reserves,with "our"Bonds one never knows!! The Global27 came out at par in 97 and now its almost half.CAREFUL!
Thu Jan 28 04:15:52 EST 1999
Alexander: <http://www.berlinerboerse.de/KURSINFO/ANL_FV/index.html> Bonds in DM
Thu Jan 28 04:16:48 EST 1999
Alexander: http://www.berlinerboerse.de/KURSINFO/ANL_FV/index.html
Thu Jan 28 07:43:38 EST 1999
optimist: Dont get carried away by yesterday rally in PRIN, IAN, even with recent rumours on 30 pct writeoff eurobonds remain better value then London Club. Besides, experts warn Paris and London Club deals (if any at all) should happen simultaneously due to equal treatment. So, figure.. BTW Rus. globals retain much more liquidity recently on either Brasil jitters or London club optimism. It appears we live in environment where liquidity often means more than spread. regards.
Thu Jan 28 09:23:42 EST 1999
anonymous: I agree with CHEET-DAH - I looked back and SPANKY you were DOWN on average, C-Bonds only traded a couple of points under 50 and the rest of your RECOMENDATIONS were off by about 10 to 12 points.... Shape UP because you are DOWN.... Lisa
Thu Jan 28 09:24:14 EST 1999
anonymous: Alex! I think that It's not time to forget gold. The gold will have value again when Internet shares will cost the prices closed to there intrinsic values, but not that owns which are necessary for US Government to rise additional taxes from capital gain. There are many interesting opinions about gold on the www.gold-eagle.com
Thu Jan 28 09:29:54 EST 1999
anonymous: What do you prefer : "Venezuela PAR at 65 or Nigeria PAR at 65 ?? I rest my case..." Hugo Chavez
Thu Jan 28 09:33:49 EST 1999
anonymous: Consult Opinions : why prices not down with all bad, very bad news ??.Marulandia
Thu Jan 28 09:34:33 EST 1999
anonymous: Consult Opinions : why prices not down with all bad, very bad news ??.Marulandia from India, thank you
Thu Jan 28 10:47:54 EST 1999
anonymous: hey Spanky Ralphie, REALITY AND GOOD VALUE HURTS... buy your gold I'll stick to clipping and working. Van der Biest
Thu Jan 28 10:50:30 EST 1999
anonymous: Russian bonds rose on speculation that the country and commercial bank creditors were discussing an agreement involving about 50 percent debt forgiveness for Russia and new bonds, backed partly by U.S. Treasury bonds, similar to<BR> some Brady bonds. Such speculation is nonsense Russia can't afford that, and the London Club concluded its last restructuring of Russian debt only about one year ago so it won't hurry on reaching a settlement. Rgds Uri V.
Thu Jan 28 10:54:04 EST 1999
Alexander: Hi Friend,Gold:there is a interrelation between commodity prices and our Bonds prices,the EM countries are mosly commodity producers and have to sell Gold/Oil etc.to raise cash!!If they are less strained financially,commodity prices have better chances of moving up.
Thu Jan 28 11:06:01 EST 1999
anonymous: Hi vdBiest,nederlandtalig ou frankophone???rgds.Alex
Thu Jan 28 11:58:53 EST 1999
anonymous: Paribas a big buyer of Russian bonds. They may have a debt-for-??? deal in the works. Locals big buyers of the Russian globals. We will see 40 on the Globals in the next few weeks. Love it!! Russian Globals the cheapest assets in the world! 50% return in dollars for the next 18 years! And they will pay. And, JP Morgan short big time!!! Let's get ready to RUMBLEEEEEEEEEE!!!!!!!
Thu Jan 28 13:00:17 EST 1999
anonymous: Russian Min Fin 3s also rose on speculation that locals had been buying paper on the possibility that the government may allow the holders to use the payment coming due in May as collateral to possibly repay tax obligations. GLOBALS ARE THE CURRENCY FOR SWAPS>>
Thu Jan 28 13:10:28 EST 1999
anonymous: Where is SPANKY....
Thu Jan 28 13:29:12 EST 1999
anonymous: "Ukraine has to pay around $1.6 billion in debt servicing this year, but has less than $1.0 billion of reserves,In order to pay off their debts they'd have to raise more money, and it's hard to see how they could do that."
Thu Jan 28 13:35:33 EST 1999
anonymous: Ukraine is already in default.
Thu Jan 28 13:42:10 EST 1999
anonymous: Spanky your cover has been blown
Thu Jan 28 13:46:31 EST 1999
anonymous: How much of the 1.6 billion is to cover Eurobond cupons ?
Thu Jan 28 13:49:06 EST 1999
Omar: Quite frankly at a 16% cupon on the DEM issue as long as they continue to service I wouldn't mind a 30 year rollover.
Thu Jan 28 13:54:33 EST 1999
anonymous: Ukraine is due to repay $155 million of one-year Eurobonds in June, and must also make interest payments on a euro deal maturing in March 2000, and a mark bond due in February 2001
Thu Jan 28 13:57:00 EST 1999
anonymous: How much are these interest payments ?
Thu Jan 28 14:38:52 EST 1999
anonymous: Cheat-DAH: if you are such a genius how come you don't have a big house on the beach? Instead you are just banging around in a Bull-CHAT room.
Thu Jan 28 15:02:52 EST 1999
Alexander: Ukraine DM close 62.- Berlin. Does not look like default prices to me, and if they do not get enough money they cannot buy cooling fluid for Chernobyl... and then we get a meltdown 1500km from Germany,nice!!!!!
Thu Jan 28 15:05:10 EST 1999
anonymous: cynical, in the best sense of the word.
Thu Jan 28 15:08:16 EST 1999
anonymous: right,everybody is!!!!!
Thu Jan 28 15:09:12 EST 1999
anonymous: did you listen to Don Alex, Ralfi-boy?
Thu Jan 28 15:10:32 EST 1999
anonymous: Alex is right afterall fear is our best "default insurance", fear of Russian missiles, Ukraine's Chernobyl, Brazil's effect in Latin America, etc...all underwritten by the IMF. Thank you very much IMF !!!
Thu Jan 28 15:16:35 EST 1999
anonymous: Ralfi ?
Thu Jan 28 15:21:04 EST 1999
anonymous: My name is Ralfie, and I think Brazil is headin' South-ie.. But, I have to heat from all you big Mouth-ies, because you think you are smarter than Ralfie. Spanky.
Thu Jan 28 15:27:57 EST 1999
anonymous: nobody can compete with Ralfie the lip.
Thu Jan 28 15:31:47 EST 1999
anonymous: Brazil is already south like in the Southern Hemisphere Ralfie
Thu Jan 28 15:32:11 EST 1999
Alexander: nananana,jetzt übertreib mal nicht......bitte!!! Keiner verfolgt Dich,Du oller Paranoiker,mit Brazil haste Dich auch verrechnet,ich seh keine 30 beim C-Bond???Oder brauch ich eine neue Brille???
Thu Jan 28 15:34:54 EST 1999
anonymous: "Romania defaulting" is pure BS!!! Ionescu
Thu Jan 28 15:34:55 EST 1999
anonymous: Alex -- 25 days still go. 3/8 per day is all we need.
Thu Jan 28 15:36:05 EST 1999
anonymous: Anon.. gonna get more South.
Thu Jan 28 15:36:17 EST 1999
anonymous: They do not only have Chernobyl,they have 5 more!!!!! rgds.Alex
Thu Jan 28 15:40:30 EST 1999
anonymous: I hope all you experts have your apple stand ready. Really, there is not much of difference to make C-bonds 1/8th to 5/8's than it is to offer apples at 50 cents on the corner of Wall and Broadway. Good Luck!
Thu Jan 28 16:36:55 EST 1999
anonymous: BUENOS AIRES, Jan 28 (Reuters) - Salomon Smith Barney's lead Latin American economist Joseph Petry was quoted Thursday as saying Brazil's currency, the real, could fall to 2.25-2.5 against the dollar in coming months. POOR JOE.. THIS WILL CAUSE HIM MUCHO GRIEF!! SALI BANKERS GONNA GET SLAMMED BY BRAZIL.
Thu Jan 28 17:49:31 EST 1999
anonymous: We would be surprised if the IMF money is not disbursed, because Brazil has broadly met all the performance criteria until the end of 1998 Once a new agreement is reached between the IMF and Brazil on the new targets, the IMF executive board could release a $4.5 billion installment from the $41.5 billion aid package. An agreement could also clear the way for a separate $4.5 billion package of loans from the U.S. and other major industrial nations.<P>The IMF and industrial countries have already release d about $9 billion to Brazil to shore up its foreign currency reserves.
Thu Jan 28 17:51:33 EST 1999
anonymous: Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, in answer to a senator's question on Thursday about the rush to invest in Internet stocks, quipped, "Is that called investment?"
Thu Jan 28 18:01:17 EST 1999
krashman: I love it when economists(like Salomon's) make market calls. If their was ever something you could make money fading, this is it. There trading desk must have a bad short they're trying to get out of. It feel's great to be long and in the money
Thu Jan 28 18:45:23 EST 1999
anonymous: Most mystifying of all is the glimpse that Pavel Borodin, the agency’s director, has given into its accounting habits. Asked to explain how he had come to value the presidency’s assets in Russia at $600 billion (more than three times the country’s GDP), he said the calculation was at “real prices”. Ignore, he said, the country’s current “artificially low” market prices; value them as if they were actually in the West—in central Tokyo, for example. Well, yes. An original argument, but one unlikely to please the IMF, which is still haggling over a plan for Russia’s disastrous economy. <<< From the current ECONOMIST... Assets backing the Eurobonds that are as good as GOLD!
Thu Jan 28 18:51:58 EST 1999
anonymous: IF YOU thought that the millennium bug was a rich country’s curse, think again. Even the poorest countries now use computers to run many essential services such as power generation, telecommunications and medical facilities. Yet, according to a new survey of 139 developing countries by the World Bank, very few of their governments are prepared for the Year 2000, or Y2K, problem (see chart). Their responses (or lack of them) suggest that only 15% are taking concrete steps to fix the bug. Slightly more than a fifth have plans but have yet to act on them. In East Asia, nearly 80% of developing countries failed to respond with any plans for action. The Economist. << AND YOU'RE BULLISH???
Fri Jan 29 00:22:05 EST 1999
anonymous: If the YK2 is your only argument to be bearish on EM markets you don't belong to this forum, you need to join a cult with Ralfie
Fri Jan 29 00:43:49 EST 1999
anonymous: o.k... here's one: capital flows to the emerging markets are back to levels seen in 1992. How they gonna pay back the massive debt that has been borrowed in the 1990's. With their commodity exports. Get (brazilian) Real, we are heading for a mass default by the emerging market countries.
Fri Jan 29 01:04:13 EST 1999
anonymous: That's much better, are you concerned with their ability to service and rollover debt ?
Fri Jan 29 01:07:50 EST 1999
anonymous: Isn't em soverign much like any public debt in Europe or the US where this debt never really gets paid in full but just renewed with new issues ?
Fri Jan 29 01:27:50 EST 1999
anonymous: That is the problem. All big global banks cutting exposure and not rolling the debt. Don't just look at bonds and equities, look at the interbank and trade credits that are getting cut -- the silent run is on. I see no way out for these countries and the big risk is political.
Fri Jan 29 01:30:07 EST 1999
anonymous: P.S. what investor in their right mind will have his/her money in Brazil on Janurary 1, 2000? The capital flight from the emerging markets will be enormous starting in the second half of this year.
Fri Jan 29 03:18:25 EST 1999
anonymous: no problem,GO SHORT with all your money!!!!
Fri Jan 29 03:56:40 EST 1999
anonymous: the fud factor is the creepy thing: fear, uncertainty and doubt spread by the media about the Y2K problem. wait for an hollywood blockbuster on this issue. major part: ralfie(?)
Fri Jan 29 05:18:36 EST 1999
anonymous: now,come on,you can't make Ralphie responsble for everything,next thing you tell,he started the Columbian earthquake????rgds.Alex
Fri Jan 29 05:45:43 EST 1999
anonymous: the film might even help the gold price to rise, Alex. the Y2K warning industrie is certainly american. but a bambi for ralfie will do no harm.
Fri Jan 29 07:11:32 EST 1999
anonymous: Gold price!! Since you started the subject,two points:1)the gold rallye was in the middle of the cold war(1980/6wks after the Soviet inv.of Afghanistan) and 2)"OUR" countries are the gold producers,and they have to sell,even at low prices, rgds.Alex
Fri Jan 29 07:20:25 EST 1999
anonymous: no inflation and no political tensions=No gold rallye,rgds.Alex
Fri Jan 29 09:13:23 EST 1999
optimist: Emerging markets now have to be more selective then ever. Look at BRZ outflows/ex. rate - yesterday some were laughing at Sally's prognosis on 2.25 , and today you are seeing 2.10 trading in real... Who's silly?? same time , in Febrauary Brasil has to repay nearly 16 bio USD in domestic and external debt , of cos it will try to roll over domestic - but yesterday auction has shown its inability to do it at reasonable rate. So friends, shift to the country which has already undergone local paper default (whatever cynical it sounds) regards
Fri Jan 29 09:56:33 EST 1999
Cheetah: I heard the Soli guys say 3.00 Reais to the dollar this Month... Brazil will eat the Asians alive with their exports... Brazil will fulfill it's ECONOMIC POWERHOUSE promise now... just as Mexico has since they free floated their currency. Venezuela, Peru, Colombia will benefit, Argentina will suffer some (less than expected) and Chile will probably be most hit. BUY< BUY > BUYYYYYYYYY!!!!!!!!!
Fri Jan 29 09:59:20 EST 1999
anonymous: Spanky you are WAY OFF on your predictions... even in the worst moment averaging your recommendations you were in the DUMPS and at the same time paying your Christmas bills... Ralphie
Fri Jan 29 10:01:42 EST 1999
anonymous: The Reais over 2.00 and all the BONDS UP ??? How can this be ? Nervous NY Short Desk
Fri Jan 29 10:11:41 EST 1999
Doomsayer: I'm a doomsayer, but even I think that Y2K hype is totally overblown. In the worst case, some major financial markets might have to close for a few days. Will that really effect the value of your bonds in the long term, or even a week later? I don't think so. See http://rook.2020tech.com/y2k.gif for an illustration.
Fri Jan 29 10:14:24 EST 1999
anonymous: Romania is strong.
Fri Jan 29 10:17:14 EST 1999
anonymous: Brazil rise in due to speculation that next week they will announce plans to set inflation targets and optimism that the IMF review will clear the way for $9 billion of loans soon.
Fri Jan 29 10:23:43 EST 1999
anonymous: Capital outflows of more than $8.3 billion this month have drained the supply of dollars at commercial banks, boosting the value of the dollar. Outflows yesterday totaled $215 million, reducing the reserves to about $26 billion. What's more companies have foreign bonds coming due in the next few days. Banco BBA Creditanstalt SA has a $150 million eurobond maturing on Feb. 1. Telecomunicacoes Brasileiras SA has a 500 billion Italian lira ($294 million) eurobond maturing Feb 5. Expect the real lot weaker then the Salli guy predicted ! JPC
Fri Jan 29 10:34:15 EST 1999
anonymous: As cynical as it might sound, the worst the BRZ crisis the better long term cause it'll force some badly needed reforms...
Fri Jan 29 10:35:24 EST 1999
anonymous: Brazil intervention in the market is doomed to failure. It is sending a signal that the bank is staging a last stand. Those investors still holding real assets are going to rush to quit the market. Any recovery in the real would prove only temporary. The government would be left staring a debt moratorium in the face.
Fri Jan 29 10:35:55 EST 1999
JMC: JPC you are spot on the money, I am no expert but history indicates that when Brazil loses control of its fiscal measures it goes down big-time. The questions raised about y2k etc are relevant but stick to the basics the country, (and that includes the joint venture banks like BBA-Creditanstalt) have to much debt coming due this year and with just 26bn in currency reserves you can guess the rest. Cheers
Fri Jan 29 10:44:48 EST 1999
anonymous: They will get the IMF money Brazil has now made 84% of the $28.5bn fiscal cuts required by the IMF (although the budget is based on a recession of 1% -- which now seems unrealistic. ). This will ease market tension for a while, and people who buys for the yield will junp in forgeting once again the country fundamentals. Abit of stabilty and then the collapse. C bonds with a 30 handle by the end of the 1stt quarter Enjoy the Carnaval ! Pele
Fri Jan 29 10:50:58 EST 1999
JMC: If we have a 30 handle, I am glad I am not providing leverage for the few investment funds that have not yet learned their lessons. Check out the redemptions on some of the LATAM funds PRIOR to the devaluation.
Fri Jan 29 10:51:31 EST 1999
Alexander: Hi JPC & JMC,if you believe big -time troubles in Brazil you should go short big-time,or just talking here????????
Fri Jan 29 10:53:18 EST 1999
Cheetah: Just because Cemex hit a 30 handle 3 months after Mexico's deval doesn't mean that the C-Bonds will have the same by the end of this quarter... Anyway's whoever bought Cemex in March 95 is still enjoying his bank account.... and Mexico as Brasil did not default on any debt... only SITUR, GMD, and some other low quality corporates defaulted... don't worry BE HAPPY if you get a 30 handle !!! BUY BUY BUYYYYYY
Fri Jan 29 10:58:08 EST 1999
JMC: Alexander - You are right, I am just talking at this stage... I don't have the capital to be in these markets, I am just bottom fishing in the Asian equity markets! And i do agree that this time could turn out to be the biggest oportunity to pick up some cheap assets for the brave. If i had the personal money to be in there, my view may well be different Regards
Fri Jan 29 11:00:41 EST 1999
anonymous: Hi friend JMC,bottomfishing in the asian equity markets is no bad idea. Might be worth a fortune over 10 yrs,keep on fishing,rgds.Alex
Fri Jan 29 11:02:24 EST 1999
optimist: Oh, no, both extremeties are wrong (IMHO). Collapse hardly possible due to commonly known reasons (8th large economy etc) On the other hand why shuold we be optimistic about boosting BRZ exports??? Does BRZ export computers, CD players, ships , cars?? hardly so... Probably it will benefit on colombian coffee shrinking exports (and not due to weaker real but due to earthquake) But what next?? 15 pct of domestic debt pegged to USD (face value adjustment needed) 50 pct - floating payments - int.rates rise is killing. And this debt amounts to 100 bio usd at curent rate. Even if 30 pct of the debt rolled over, 70 pct unrefinanced will force country to default (I pray for them not to do it).. Build up spread trades - like out of IDU into C's at strange ratios, but why stockpile outright longs???
Fri Jan 29 11:24:31 EST 1999
JMC: While I'm feeling good about having my personal investment strategies praised. I have to recognise that I still have to work for my company. Can anyone give me some input on Russia saying that the repayment on the MinFin 3 is "not up to them" has this spike, (still yielding outrageous amounts on a stripped basis), been some kind of mirage? are they gonna stiff holders. I have seen Russian corporates selling positions in other Minfins. What is it all about.
Fri Jan 29 11:54:23 EST 1999
anonymous: Cheat-DAH: this is 1995 this 1999 and global banks are retreating from the emerging markets not increasing exposure. you are my meal ticket, Cheat-DAH.
Fri Jan 29 12:27:54 EST 1999
Alex: excuse me please,BOVESPA up 6.5%,that does not look like a crash to me,and I give you some ADRs soon.......
Fri Jan 29 12:29:35 EST 1999
Alex: http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=ara+elp+ubb+emt+bwp+tbh+tmx+tne+vnt+rtb+tsp+tcs&d=v1
Fri Jan 29 12:35:14 EST 1999
anonymous: don't ralfie me!
Fri Jan 29 12:38:29 EST 1999
anonymous: <<01-29-99 Anonymous: don't ralfie me!>>what????????????????
Fri Jan 29 12:48:11 EST 1999
Alexander: please,stop the BS!!!!!!!!
Fri Jan 29 12:56:23 EST 1999
Cheetah: To anonymous (no guts to use a name)>>> check out the ownership structure of all the Latin banks, check out their 1998 balance sheets... check out ownership of major corporates from Rio Grande to Tierra del Fuego... check out MIND SET in Latin America... not as much LEVERAGE for financial assets >>> ALL THE BETTER !!!!! BUY BUY BUYYYYYYYYYYYY
Fri Jan 29 12:57:55 EST 1999
Omar: Global banks may be retreating from emerging markets, but wouldn't a yield oriented investor much rather get 15% on Brazil or 40% on Russia than 10% on the US junk bond market ?
Fri Jan 29 13:02:27 EST 1999
anonymous: Cheat-DAH: check out spreads 1000 bps wider and Mex peso at 10 not 3. I see these prices incorporate all your good news since 1995.
Fri Jan 29 13:03:49 EST 1999
Cciano: I am still absolutely convinced that bra27 is a good long term investment. No chance to make me doubt about this. I'm still whistling. Greetings
Fri Jan 29 13:04:37 EST 1999
Alexander: it is really unbelievable how some so called "analyst" calls Romania on the edge of default (yesterday)or these people have a short position and want to make a scare in the market!!!
Fri Jan 29 13:05:41 EST 1999
Cheetah: I rest my case 1000bp wider is time to BUY BUY BUYYYYYYY !!! What is better having bot CEMEX at 36 or buying it now at 100 ?
Fri Jan 29 13:06:16 EST 1999
anonymous: Omar: No these guys blew up last year with that strategy. Furthermore, the investor flows is deminimus compared to foreign bank lending, which will not come close to offsetting liquidity squeeze which is taking place. Only way these countries "make-it" -- generate sufficient growth for political stability and pay their debts -- if they go on the "government". That is, draw heavily from the official lending instiutions. Good Luck, Omar.
Fri Jan 29 13:07:16 EST 1999
anonymous: Global banks have to retreat from the EM markets,because after their losses in Aug/Sept98 they have to make much money investing in Internet stocks.. rgds.Alex
Fri Jan 29 13:10:23 EST 1999
Alexander: Hi anonymous,BOVESPA up 7%,I call that "investor flow"
Fri Jan 29 13:10:45 EST 1999
anonymous: Cheetah: Cemex at 18 is a 50 percent loss. Just like buying MinFin3's yesterday. I guess we disagree on the end-game here. You think this is a correction and just a trade down, I think it is something much, much bigger. Check out the Economist today on the new financial structure that will be discussed in DAVOS. I bought Russia GKOs at 100% with the same thinking as you. Good
Fri Jan 29 13:13:25 EST 1999
Omar: I agree with the relative size of individual investors vs global banks, but if these banks or government lenders hold most of the paper wouldn't they be the most concerned about keeping their assets "alive" by facilitating rollover upon maturity ?. I'm also whistling with 2 digit yields from all these "bad" investments Cciano. Greetings
Fri Jan 29 13:14:40 EST 1999
anonymous: Cheetah: Cemex at 18 is a 50 percent loss. Just like buying MinFin3's yesterday. I guess we disagree on the end-game here. You think this is a correction and just a trade down, I think it is something much, much bigger. Check out the Economist today on the new financial structure that will be discussed in DAVOS. I bought Russia GKOs at 100% with the same thinking as you. Good
Fri Jan 29 13:18:09 EST 1999
anonymous: Global banks are keeping it alive, they are cutting and running. That is why most of the outflows in Brazil show up in the commerical account and not floating. One reason why the exchange rates are unified is to hide this fact. Policymakers can stabilize capital flight with tight monetary policy, but they can do nothing about the decision by John Reed and Bank of America to cut their exposure to Brazil. Good Luck to all you sheep headed for slaughter!!!!
Fri Jan 29 13:19:09 EST 1999
Omar: Want to see irrational behavior ?: Ford bought Volvo's auto business (which is expected to produce 500 million US cash flow) yesterday for 6.47 billion US, Yahoo bought GeoCities (Net LOSS of 18 million USD on Net sales of 18 million US) for 5 billion US... If this is what global banks and funds prefer to EM markets let the "smart" run away from Russia and Brazil and stay with "safe" internet plays....Greetings
Fri Jan 29 13:20:47 EST 1999
anonymous: The Economist, 21-27 November 1987: "The show can't go on"
Fri Jan 29 13:24:13 EST 1999
anonymous: MOSCOW, Jan 29 (Reuters) - Russian First Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Maslyukov expects to conclude by April or May an agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to refinance maturing loans, Interfax news agency reported on Friday. The IMF considered Russia needed three months to show it could carry out the 1999 budget, which is in the process of being approved by parliament, Maslyukov was quoted as saying. "Only after that will the IMF be willing to give us the funds," Maslyukov said.>>> GLOBAL PAR
Fri Jan 29 13:30:28 EST 1999
anonymous: the Economist is well known for knowing everything AFTERWARDS
Fri Jan 29 13:33:29 EST 1999
anonymous: We shall see. Prices are up today so I am bullish, prices are down next week, guess I will be bearish..
Fri Jan 29 13:40:48 EST 1999
Omar: If you stay bullish you'll profit long term, if you're bearish you MUST be accurate at market timing to profit. Cheers
Fri Jan 29 14:17:38 EST 1999
Daniel: Latin America, Lickin it's Wounds: good article http://www.bradynet.com/forum/11/messages/641.html posted on BradyNet.
Fri Jan 29 14:46:53 EST 1999
anonymous: Nice article Danniel. Would have been more timely when it was written (more than a month ago).
Fri Jan 29 15:14:58 EST 1999
Sergio: Also check Standard' new Tech Analysis and EM Yield Curves @ http://www.bradynet.com/e800.html http://www.bradynet.com/e419.html
Fri Jan 29 15:20:04 EST 1999
anonymous: Comments from the head of trading for Latin America at Credit Lyonnais Securities Inc., ``The Brazilians are making it clear that they don't like their currency. As sure as night follows day inflation is going to soar.' ``(President Fernando Henrique) Cardoso has lost control of politics and now has lost control of his currency.'' ``In recent weeks Brazil has gone down a number of one-way streets and desperately needs a coherent policy.''
Fri Jan 29 16:02:06 EST 1999
anonymous: Go short with all your money!!!!
Fri Jan 29 16:07:18 EST 1999
anonymous: Emerging Markets: 'We're Fighting to Survive' (int'l edition) With Western capital deserting even well-managed businesses, they face a long siege>> Business Week --> GO LONG WITH ALL YOUR MONEY
Fri Jan 29 16:08:30 EST 1999
anonymous: ---Stone & McCarthy (Princeton)---According to our contacts in Sao Paulo, lines were forming at banks today as depositors were withdrawing their money from financial institutions. O Globo just reported remarks by central bank president Francisco Lopes in which he said "ida aos bancos e bobagem, e fofoca" (in portuguese). The translation is that people are acting silly by taking their money out of banks
Fri Jan 29 16:11:58 EST 1999
anonymous: I see,first you followed the Ecomomist,you went broke cause they told you in Nov.'87 about the Oct.crash,since that you follow Business Week hoping to regain some money,good luck, maybe you can sue the journalists if you are wrong again!!!! Vielleicht bist Du selbst einer.......
Fri Jan 29 16:19:37 EST 1999
anonymous: Give it a rest, Bull Market Genius!
Fri Jan 29 16:20:32 EST 1999
anonymous: Uncle Sam ain't gonna bail you out again. In fact, he is gonna bail you in!
Fri Jan 29 16:22:49 EST 1999
anonymous: Stone & McArthy report is right.Brazilians rushed to withdraw savings from banks as rumors spread the government could freeze deposits as part of a debt restructuring as early as Monday. Rumors about a confiscation plan resembling the one carried out by former Brazilian President Fernando Collor de Mello circulated on the trading floors.
Fri Jan 29 16:23:27 EST 1999
anonymous: Fact is EVERYBODY is speculating,and he who says to know the future is lying to himself,nobody knows the future
Fri Jan 29 16:30:19 EST 1999
anonymous: FInance Minister Remes told Romanian state television that Romania could handle the payments, including large amounts in May and June, even if there were delays in the process of restoring credits from the International Monetary Fund.
Fri Jan 29 16:33:13 EST 1999
Alexander: right,and some news-fool wrote an a article about the imminent default of Romania,INCREDIBLE!!!!
Fri Jan 29 16:48:18 EST 1999
anonymous: If they used their brains instead of repeating what they just read in some magazines (Economist/BusWeek etc) we had a lot less boredom on this site
Fri Jan 29 16:54:04 EST 1999
anonymous: he is satisfied if confidence in the international financial system is questioned. confidence, the only backing of fiat money, trust in management skills of polis & bureaurats, trust in solidarity of the world community. sorry for my bad english.
Fri Jan 29 17:19:21 EST 1999
anonymous: <<<01-29-99 Anonymous: Uncle Sam ain't gonna bail you out again. In fact, he is gonna bail you in! 01-29-99 Anonymous: Give it a rest, Bull Market Genius! >>>> HAHAHAHAHAHA
Sat Jan 30 00:08:52 EST 1999
Cheetah: Anonymous (get a name), you bot GKO's I didn't and wouldn't have even if the yield was 200%, I am trained to recognize value...you like to follow The Economist and probably economists too. BUY NOW get your double digit yields, cancel your subscriptions and stick with us at Bradychat (except Ralphie Spanky). Have a good weekend - investigate BRZ: Comtel, Ford, Globopar ARGI: Fargo, CEI Peso PERU: Pesquera Austral VENI: Global 18 DR: Tricom MEX: Iusacell, Durango, Innova
Sat Jan 30 04:02:14 EST 1999
Cciano: the main reason for the permanent outflows surely is the fact that many traders and investors get their money out NOT because their were really convinced to do so by their own analisis, but just because an other "trendsetter" did so. one sheep cries "wolf from north" and all the herd, ram ahead, runs south. so many traders maybe are not paid for their brillant brains, but for their big ears and liquidity finds even stranger investments like internet stocks at galactic prices. I guess if all these guys were dealing with their OWN money, things were quite different. Nice weekend to everybody.
Sat Jan 30 07:03:39 EST 1999
Alexander: Hi Cciano,Hi Cheetah,thats the problem if they follow the "mob". Panic & hysteria rules,but thats also the chance for us.I stick to my recommendations,BRZ27/Ven18/RusFed28/Ukr01,have a nice weekend.
Sat Jan 30 13:20:28 EST 1999
anonymous: Denial and ignorance will shield you from the forces that will ultimately determine your ROA!
Sat Jan 30 13:36:56 EST 1999
anonymous: By DIANA JEAN SCHEMO IO DE JANEIRO, Brazil -- Signs of alarm deepened across Brazil on Friday, as former U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker warned that Brazilian leaders appeared to be underestimating their nation's financial crisis, and legislative employees lined up to empty their bank accounts on rumors the government would freeze personal savings, <<< SO ARE THE BOZO's ON THIS WEBSITE!!!!!!!!
Sat Jan 30 13:45:21 EST 1999
Omar: Rumors and panic provide an even better opportunity to buy,if you can afford to wait; They're also a favorite tool of short sellers who need to cover their bets. Nice weekend to everybody.
Sat Jan 30 14:12:10 EST 1999
anonymous: Omar: It seems to me, Volcker is talking about people like you. Thinking this is just panic and sentiment and not a real fundamental problem. The IMF and Treasury are probably considering a plan that would request Brazil implement a global stanstill. That is, default or suspend payments on everything until the situation stabilizes and a plan is implemented.
Sat Jan 30 14:20:03 EST 1999
Omar: Yeah right !,... "the IMF and the Treasury are probably considering a plan that would request Brazil implement a global stanstill. That is, default or suspend payments on everything until the situation stabilizes and a plan is implemented.", and take down the drain most major US and European banks along the way .... Come on, get real !!!, I'm not denying the existence of a crisis but merely pointing out that as all past crisis this one will be worked out, the difficult part is to know WHEN, not IF it will be solved, that's why I believe it's better to get in IF you have staying power. If you get a name perhaps it'd be easier to communicate and we would give more validity to your comments. Greetings
Sat Jan 30 14:41:52 EST 1999
Alexander: <<<<< SO ARE THE BOZO's ON THIS WEBSITE!!!!!!!!>> We decided to stop insulting,friend,if you don't agree with something post your opinion otherwise abstain from posting
Sat Jan 30 14:46:09 EST 1999
Alexander: <<Brazilian banks were again buyers of bonds Friday, marking a week-long trend, dealers said.>>why is it that these doomies(NOT dummies) always quote what fits into their theory???Above quote souce on the left!!!
Sat Jan 30 14:48:52 EST 1999
anonymous: hey Anonym,first you predicted the total default of Venezuela and now of Brazil,you will be wrong twice!!!
Sat Jan 30 15:04:04 EST 1999
anonymous: how comes that the remark "BOZOs" reminds us of Spanky,Ralfie, Uri V.,JPC and Co.??????
Sat Jan 30 15:31:02 EST 1999
anonymous: optimists are forgiven when wrong, pessimists are not.
Sat Jan 30 15:33:46 EST 1999
anonymous: the constant insisting on that person's viewpoint,even in the weekend, makes it clear who we are dealing with

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