Color of the Market Archive, Page #6
Color of the Market A R C H I V E 

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The Color of the Market has been an online meeting place for people interested in emerging market debt since 1996, and has undergone many changes in that time. We have discovered an old archive of Color of the Market messages, covering 5 months starting in late 1998. For the benefit of both old and new Bradynetters, we present this archive untouched.

Note: Back in these days, the forum software was greatly different than the Color of the Market that we are now accustomed to. Without the requirement of registration, the forum began to attract disrupters who would engage in vulgarities, name-calling, impersonation of users, and other childish hijinks. But if you can wade through the nonsense, some of the comments herein are historic, and prophetic.

Enjoy,
IDEAGlobal/BradyNet Staff

Sat Jan 30 15:36:39 EST 1999
Alexander: <<optimists are forgiven when wrong, pessimists are not.>>there is a certain logic in the different possibilities of the longs or shorts when wrong,the long can keep his Bonds and have the interest of the coupon,the short has no Bonds and no money,I guess...
Sat Jan 30 15:43:46 EST 1999
anonymous: if you are cynical, you better be right, buddy!
Sat Jan 30 15:45:47 EST 1999
Alexander: What is cynical in that posting???
Sat Jan 30 18:55:36 EST 1999
anonymous: I am short !! So much bad news... Volcker, devaluation, Chavez, default possibilities, El Nino, etc etc etc.... Then why am I LOOSING money WHY are prices going UP and not DOWN ??? Margarita (following doomsayers advice)
Sat Jan 30 21:59:07 EST 1999
anonymous: I am holding a barbecue in February - on the menu: Cheetah Wings and Lamb chops. You're all invited. Marta Stewart.
Sat Jan 30 23:08:31 EST 1999
anonymous: But Marta dear, Cheetah is UP, my shorts are making me nervous, and NO COUPONS to take home with this NEGATIVE CARRY, please invite me to your barbie, my supermarket is cutting my credit --- if THE CRASH DOES NOT HAPPEN.... why is it not ocurring ???????????? Margarita La Linda
Sat Jan 30 23:28:34 EST 1999
anonymous: Margarita: spreads are 200-300 bps wider in January. How can you loosing money on your shorts? C Bonds are down 10 points. Hey, but I guess if you're a bad trader you can loose money on a right position.
Sat Jan 30 23:31:12 EST 1999
anonymous: Here is one prediction. Vennie will have trouble with the 1 Bn brady payments in June. Good luck, Comrades.
Sat Jan 30 23:37:06 EST 1999
Cheetah: With 15 BILLION in reserves !!!! give us a slight break and go to kindergarten math classes. FYI Veni's M2 is LESS (yes LESS) than USD$ reserves at the central parity exchange rate... Please respect your own intelligence, even if you are SHORT VENI and hurting... ie spanky
Sat Jan 30 23:38:10 EST 1999
anonymous: Sunday, January 31, 1999; Page H02 Interesting excerpts from investment newsletters: "It seems to me that the U.S. dollar might be headed for tougher times. The dollar exchange rate could plunge, or interest rates might rise, perhaps dramatically. If both occur, the Dow and the S&P 500 would be virtually guaranteed to fall sharply, 50 percent or more." -- Charles Allmon, Growth Stock Outlook, Chevy Chase
Sat Jan 30 23:39:53 EST 1999
anonymous: Commercial Mortgage Backed spreads back to normal (Brazil effect ???), Off the run Treasuries spreads normal (Samba effect ???), Mexican Peso strenghens against USD (and isn't Brazil in Latin America ???).................
Sat Jan 30 23:40:04 EST 1999
anonymous: Cheet-DAH: I see your up late. Worried about your longs that are deeply underwater?
Sat Jan 30 23:41:25 EST 1999
Cheetah: Post a name it's just a number, your friends won't know...
Sat Jan 30 23:41:47 EST 1999
anonymous: Cheetda: Vennie oil price at $7 per bbl. How long can they last?
Sat Jan 30 23:42:49 EST 1999
anonymous: How do you know that I am not Bill Clinton?
Sat Jan 30 23:45:22 EST 1999
Cheetah: Veni oil is hurting at 8.87 (not 7 $, but you still haven't gonr to math prep) but oil has been there for the last 4 months and reserves have gone UP 2 billion, even with your friend Chavez... Wait until his speach next week >>> GO SHORT !!!
Sat Jan 30 23:47:25 EST 1999
Cheetah: If you were Bill you would've called me to handle the Brazil crisis instead of Bob and Allen... Goodnight and enjoy your weekend of negative carry.
Sat Jan 30 23:55:06 EST 1999
anonymous: Hey I have the Russian covergence trade on: Long Russia, short everything else. Very positive carry and working like a champ so far this year. Have a nice week-end and don't loose sleep over being long your Brady BOMBS!!!
Sun Jan 31 00:04:08 EST 1999
anonymous: Politicians, the public - we're all living on borrowed time By John Ellis, Globe Columnist, 01/30/99 The most important fact in American political life today is this: For every dollar Americans earn, they spend $1.10. This situation either changes (Americans become more productive and earn more than they spend) or it unravels. The question that hangs over Wall Street, the Federal Reserve Bank, and the American political system is this: Which will it be? Optimists hope (and some believe) that technology will bridge the gap by increasing productivity to the point that the numbers realign into positive balance. Pessimists (who call themselves realists) believe that the behaviors associated with a negative savings rate inexorably lead to disaster. They envision a kind of doomsday scenario in which, say, Brazilian panic leads to a collapse in emerging markets, which leads to a global financial crisis, which causes a credit crunch in the United States, which leads to deep recession, if not depression. One senses that the Federal Reserve chairman, Alan Greenspan, as he gazes out at posturing panels of congressmen, shares the more pessimistic view. Regardless of political ideology, most economists argue that spending more than you make is, over the long haul, unsustainable. This is particularly true in financial arenas (like credit card debt) governed by compound interest. The hope is that Greenspan and Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin can keep all the plates spinning until technology rides to the rescue. Technology is the wild card.
Sun Jan 31 00:06:02 EST 1999
anonymous: yu propably had gko and now have russia 28 I congratulate yu comrade you are candidate for head accountant for kremlin
Sun Jan 31 00:08:52 EST 1999
anonymous: I guess long GKOs against short NTDs not a bad bet now, ah?
Sun Jan 31 00:11:00 EST 1999
anonymous: Long Rus28's short C Bonds since Jan 1 up almost 40 percent for the month not counting carry. Annualize that one, Genius?
Sun Jan 31 00:14:27 EST 1999
anonymous: Cheat-dah: your monthly carry won't even cover bid-offer.
Sun Jan 31 00:20:39 EST 1999
anonymous: TO: The BradyNet.com Thought Police. Guess you are not the only one engaged in e-censorship Worries About Big Brother at America Online By AMY HARMON (Sunday, NY TIMES) ike the divided generations of Irish before them, the two opposing camps of contributors to America Online's discussion group on Ireland rarely agree on anything. But when the world's leading online service suspended their contentious electronic debate last month, participants on both sides were united in their dismay. "Don't stop just to appease the AOL Thought Police," one proponent of a united Ireland wrote to the Unionist contingent. "I'd much rather have someone vehemently disagree with me than know that anyone has been silenced!" America Online reopened its Irish Heritage discussion after a 17-day "cooling off" period, and if there was a strangely muted quality to the contributions at first, things are mostly back to normal. The politics folder, which now bears the slogan "a place for cordial political debate in the spirit of harmony," has spawned more than 12,000 of the usual postings regarding British treason and Sinn Fein terrorism since the beginning of the year. But the episode has fed a growing discomfort with the social and political power America Online has come to wield by dint of its surging popularity and its unusual purview over individual communication. And it underscores the challenges the company may face as it seeks with mixed success to maintain both civil discourse and satisfied customers while presiding over 180,000 continuing conversations on topics from the teen-age idols 'N Sync to Presidential impeachment. Balancing free expression with civility has always been a struggle for America Online and other electronic publishers that provide areas where people can voice their opinions by typing them into the ether. But it is America Online's scope combined with its editorial control that some critics say is cause for concern.
Sun Jan 31 00:21:27 EST 1999
anonymous: TO: The BradyNet.com Thought Police. Guess you are not the only one engaged in e-censorship Worries About Big Brother at America Online By AMY HARMON (Sunday, NY TIMES) Like the divided generations of Irish before them, the two opposing camps of contributors to America Online's discussion group on Ireland rarely agree on anything. But when the world's leading online service suspended their contentious electronic debate last month, participants on both sides were united in their dismay. "Don't stop just to appease the AOL Thought Police," one proponent of a united Ireland wrote to the Unionist contingent. "I'd much rather have someone vehemently disagree with me than know that anyone has been silenced!" America Online reopened its Irish Heritage discussion after a 17-day "cooling off" period, and if there was a strangely muted quality to the contributions at first, things are mostly back to normal. The politics folder, which now bears the slogan "a place for cordial political debate in the spirit of harmony," has spawned more than 12,000 of the usual postings regarding British treason and Sinn Fein terrorism since the beginning of the year. But the episode has fed a growing discomfort with the social and political power America Online has come to wield by dint of its surging popularity and its unusual purview over individual communication. And it underscores the challenges the company may face as it seeks with mixed success to maintain both civil discourse and satisfied customers while presiding over 180,000 continuing conversations on topics from the teen-age idols 'N Sync to Presidential impeachment. Balancing free expression with civility has always been a struggle for America Online and other electronic publishers that provide areas where people can voice their opinions by typing them into the ether. But it is America Online's scope combined with its editorial control that some critics say is cause for concern.
Sun Jan 31 00:22:01 EST 1999
anonymous: TO: The BradyNet.com Thought Police. Guess you are not the only one engaged in e-censorship Worries About Big Brother at America Online By AMY HARMON (Sunday, NY TIMES) Like the divided generations of Irish before them, the two opposing camps of contributors to America Online's discussion group on Ireland rarely agree on anything. But when the world's leading online service suspended their contentious electronic debate last month, participants on both sides were united in their dismay. "Don't stop just to appease the AOL Thought Police," one proponent of a united Ireland wrote to the Unionist contingent. "I'd much rather have someone vehemently disagree with me than know that anyone has been silenced!"
Sun Jan 31 03:45:46 EST 1999
Alexander: BradyNet is not censoring!! If you like to spread vulgarities and insults please go to the Yahoo!message Boards,rgds.
Sun Jan 31 03:49:31 EST 1999
anonymous: There was one individual who predicted a 30 or 40 "handle" on the BRZ C-Bonds by January.
Sun Jan 31 03:56:08 EST 1999
Alexander: <<know that anyone has been silenced!>>To Anonym,your posting is wrong,it just happened last week that a verbal critic of the IRA was murdered,and that leads me to the 2nd point,this is a a business site,we do not discuss violent political conflicts here,so your comparison is wrong(twice),Sir. (not anonymous)
Sun Jan 31 05:55:49 EST 1999
Cciano: No one's comment is erased as far as he is dealing with real arguments referring in the widest sense to EM BONDS, whatever his opinion might be. But an intentional inundation of insults and fakes in order to destroy this board, as happened in nov+dec, should not be allowed to take place here. Bradynet did a good job cleaning this site, the proof is that quality and style of comments has improved since then and interesting writers show up again instead of staying off. The only thing I do not understand is the lot of anonymice, do they not dare to append a name even without showing their url?
Sun Jan 31 06:06:41 EST 1999
Alexander: Exactly Cciano,they are afraid.Other Anonymous posters you can spot during business hours only,so there is sometimes an intention of spreading rumors.rgds.
Sun Jan 31 11:09:32 EST 1999
Cheetah: To our anonymous comrade, his rumor of a Veni "default" because of 1BB in debt servicing in one month, was stopped in it's tracks, Veni M2 plus Internal Debt =+- FOREIGN RESERVES was too much for him... lets add that Venezuela has almost 1BB in leftover collateral from the Veni27 - Par Bond exchange at the Federal Reserve... in other words debt servicing can be made w/o touching current reserve levels !!!! Sorry for the numbers... Se comienza a respirar confianza en Venezuela !!
Sun Jan 31 11:12:47 EST 1999
anonymous: Anonymous in how many years do you cover your GKO losses with the Russia convergence trade ? (like the name RCT but I do prefer to be long good corporates at double digit yields)
Sun Jan 31 11:19:19 EST 1999
Cheetah: I like this one: INNOVA (Mexico corporate) major shareholder TCI bought by ATT who has filed for issuance for up to 13BB in debt... rumored for buyback of most of TCI higher cost debt... This bond can be purchased with 60 handle >> 20% yield and with some leverage >> 30% yld
Sun Jan 31 12:58:18 EST 1999
Alexander: <<This bond can be purchased with 60 handle >> 20% yield and with some leverage >> 30% yld>>Hi Cheetah,I rather have the RusFed or Ukr at 40%-50%yld.greetings,
Sun Jan 31 19:49:01 EST 1999
anonymous: It's a matter of diversification, I also have some R18's. Another good one is FARGO (Argi bread corporate 80% market share, main shareholder Exxel Group, which is Rockefeller, US BIG pension money... another over 30% yielder with some leverage, and good shareholders to boot. Even if their results are soft, all Argi corporates are soft, this is a good play.
Sun Jan 31 19:54:21 EST 1999
===: If you like mexican buses----- look at grupo dina {DIN}
Sun Jan 31 19:55:40 EST 1999
===: If you like mexican buses----- look at grupo dina {DIN}
Sun Jan 31 19:59:31 EST 1999
===: If you like mexican buses----- look at grupo dina {DIN}
Sun Jan 31 22:03:28 EST 1999
anonymous: there is something called capacity to pay AND quality of management AND competetive position AND disposition of main shareholders.... Juan Gabriel
Sun Jan 31 22:10:04 EST 1999
Cheetah: To the Venezuela default rumor monger : In Veni case more than many others, the COST OF DEFAULT well exceeds benefits (Russia), why would they risk problems at PDVSA, CITGO, VEBA OIL, Foreign Reserve Holdings... just to save 2.3bb in payments this year and 2bb next year ???? Venezuelan Bonds trading at default implied levels offer some of the best VALUE around !!! BUY BUY BUYYYYYYYYYYYYYY !!!!!!!!!!
Sun Jan 31 22:20:59 EST 1999
anonymous: IMF says "will stand by Brasil"... "has passed most measures required to meet IMF targets..." January is over and its a 50 handle NOT 40.... luv ya Spanky (and on Veni you are off by 13 points)
Sun Jan 31 22:25:27 EST 1999
anonymous: mid 50's on she-bonds the bser was not close
Mon Feb 1 06:13:40 EST 1999
colin: Who believes the IMF are actually capable of resuing anybody, let alone Brazil. What price the c's when the local debt gets restructured 40 or 60?
Mon Feb 1 06:38:39 EST 1999
anonymous: For who was the IMF $US 41Bln?? For you or for Brazil??If you don't believe,go short!!!rgds.Fayez
Mon Feb 1 10:47:15 EST 1999
Cciano: The IMF actually talking with Brazil about measures to stabilize real, US Gvt. will give Brazil 1 Bn$ additional comercial credits. Do you really believe they wouldn't matter? Soros said real now undervalued. Don't forget the strong aspects of Brazilian economy. They will get along!
Mon Feb 1 11:19:52 EST 1999
anonymous: Some of these "doomsayers" can only point and click like trained monkeys
Mon Feb 1 11:34:08 EST 1999
Alexander: bovespa 8508 +337 +4.13%
Mon Feb 1 11:59:11 EST 1999
frog: i am missing comunism time. you suppose, if URSS yet at stake, EE.UU would let Brazil gettint this point. soom wiil be inventend any kind marshall to rescue. good time
Mon Feb 1 12:09:46 EST 1999
anonymous: Hi frog,everybody will be rescued,Russia too!
Mon Feb 1 14:00:30 EST 1999
anonymous: Everybody will be rescued but Russia & Brazil need to show the will to reform and not use the IMF money to fatten the bureaucrats pockets.
Mon Feb 1 15:25:21 EST 1999
anonymous: <<Have a nice week-end and don't loose sleep over being long your Brady BOMBS!!!>>this message dates from 01-30-99,what a nonsense these people were spreading on this site.
Mon Feb 1 16:47:29 EST 1999
anonymous: Why nonsense? They have been bombs for the past 2 years?
Mon Feb 1 16:52:20 EST 1999
anonymous: If the cooking is too hot for you,get our of the kitchen.You should have bought Internet stocks,then you had 100times your $$s.
Mon Feb 1 16:57:16 EST 1999
anonymous: Listen buster: C bonds went from 86 to 50 in Oct 97. Traded back up to 79 in 1998, traded down to the low 40's in October 1998; traded back up to the mid 60's and then down to 48 a week ago. I think we are making lower highs and lower lows. That smells like a bear market, Mr. Genius. And my bet is we see a 30 handle sometime soon. So go ahead, bet your lunch money. The trend is clear, but you can't see it through the noise. If I don't see ya: Good morning, good afternoon, and good night!!!
Mon Feb 1 16:57:51 EST 1999
anonymous: BRAZ C MAR99 56.13 +377 ,where is the 30handle man???
Mon Feb 1 17:00:44 EST 1999
anonymous: So what are u saying? Today's march contract is where the spot will be on march? future prices are terrible predictors.
Mon Feb 1 17:03:02 EST 1999
anonymous: why are you so nervous,buster?? If you can't stand it,go back to the job you had before,Mr.Genius!
Mon Feb 1 17:04:11 EST 1999
anonymous: Junge,Junge,der fällt uns noch tot vom Hocker,wenn er so weitermacht
Mon Feb 1 17:05:26 EST 1999
anonymous: I love this one too much. It's too easy, reminds of like taking candy from babies.
Mon Feb 1 17:09:36 EST 1999
Alexander: unbelievable,isn't it???
Mon Feb 1 17:09:40 EST 1999
anonymous: Where will She-Bonds be when the U.S. equity bubble bursts?
Mon Feb 1 17:12:03 EST 1999
anonymous: Why must the US "equity bubble" burst? Sorry,I forgot,the world crash will come,everybody buy GOLD
Mon Feb 1 17:14:26 EST 1999
anonymous: Why did the Real crash? Why did the Peso crash? Why did Hong Kong crash? Why did the Nikkei crash? Why did tulips bulbs crash? IT'S THE VALUATIONS, STUPID!!!!
Mon Feb 1 17:17:44 EST 1999
anonymous: I know,I know,everybody is stupid except you!! And logically you decide the value of your "valuations"! Have you ever applied for the Nobel Price ???
Mon Feb 1 17:20:27 EST 1999
anonymous: "It looks like stocks have reached a permanently high plateau!" -- Irving Fisher, September 1929
Mon Feb 1 17:22:46 EST 1999
anonymous: The last two Nobel prize winners I think worked at Long Term Capital Management. Hey they were right for 2 years! What the heck, it was only US$4 Bn...
Mon Feb 1 17:25:33 EST 1999
anonymous: You are again trying to make prophecies on the future of the markets.Why this discussion makes you so nervous is unexplainable,unless you have made some wrong deals. It is totally unimportant what happened in 1929,if you believe in the fall of the stock market,then you should go short.Where is the problem???
Mon Feb 1 17:27:44 EST 1999
anonymous: it was not $4Bln.it was $40Bln.
Mon Feb 1 17:30:57 EST 1999
anonymous: Finde ich auch,jetzt reg Dich doch nicht wegen jedem Scheiss gleich so auf
Mon Feb 1 19:39:50 EST 1999
Cheetah: Hugo Chavez is finishing his cabinet with a very strong name for PDVSA (oil company), weak names for some of the more burocratic ministries - mostly leftists without business experience >>> As PDVSA is 80% of the economy - on balance positive. If Chavez makes a strong choice for Central Bank > extra positive. NEGATIVE VOICES will come from TRADERS and BANKERS as Chavez said they who do NOT PAY TAXES will go to JAIL !!! Fiscally this is GOOD === BUY BUY BUYYYYYYYY
Mon Feb 1 19:50:11 EST 1999
anonymous: Cheat-DAH! -- Default and interest arrears is also good for the fiscal accounts. Sell, sell, sell, sell, sell!!!!!!!!
Mon Feb 1 19:52:16 EST 1999
anonymous: 02-01-99 Anonymous: You are again trying to make prophecies on the future of the market.. ANON - Every trade you make is a prophesy of the future market direction. Where did you learn your're finance and economics? In Sudan?
Mon Feb 1 19:53:30 EST 1999
anonymous: "The markets are always wrong" -- George Soros
Mon Feb 1 20:22:50 EST 1999
anonymous: Everest ramped C Bonds today.
Mon Feb 1 20:29:33 EST 1999
Cheetah: Anonymous - why would Venezuela default in order to save 1bb yes ONLY 1bb this year and 1bb next and RISK all their credit lines to PDVSA CITGO VEBA OIL ROV etc etc etc... So your brilliant logic says SAVE 1bb lose 20BB!!!!!... you are either bored or been stale for quite a while, recommend you go to Venezuela and check it out !
Mon Feb 1 20:36:22 EST 1999
anonymous: We will see, Cheat-Dah friend. Can't see Hugo selling out to foreign creditors at the expense of local adjustment pain. PDVSA operated fine when Vennie defaulted in 1980's.
Mon Feb 1 20:40:02 EST 1999
anonymous: Cheetah: I have spent more time in Venezuela than Ralph Caldera.
Mon Feb 1 20:50:12 EST 1999
anonymous: Russian Bond index up 15% for January, Brazil down 9%.. Nice spread trade: RUSSIAN CONVERGENCE TRADE...
Mon Feb 1 20:55:06 EST 1999
clota: Does anybody know if Russia has been buying back Prins or MinFins at these prices ? I am sure they must have some bucks left and know that whatever restructuring they do will be worth more than 10 ...?
Mon Feb 1 20:56:43 EST 1999
anonymous: "At the end of February, the Russia 8 3/4% due 05, Russia 11% due 19, and the Russia 12 3/4% due 28 will likely be added to the EMBI +." JPMORGAN - Emerging Market Bond Index Monitor, January 29, 1999<<< Rock on, Comrades! If you don't own 'em, buy 'em! If you own 'em, buy more! If your short, call Dr. Kevorkian!!! The funds have to buy 'em to index, and we know they don't own them. 40 handle by the end of Q1!!!
Mon Feb 1 20:58:55 EST 1999
anonymous: Clota: The Russians say the Prins are not their debt. Why would they waste money on that. If anything, they would buy the Euros.. Russian is the process of repudiating the Soviet Debt.
Mon Feb 1 21:04:32 EST 1999
anonymous: Cheetah: Ven Dcbs total return down 24% over 12 months. How can you be critical of my shorts? Seems to me you are the one in pain...
Mon Feb 1 21:39:15 EST 1999
anonymous: It's nice to know you went short at the high -- but -- you havn't covered at the low (39) in september ?? Use a name Bill
Mon Feb 1 21:47:16 EST 1999
cheetah: I will keep my 28% current Yield year after year while your 24% (since you went short at the top) whithers away in less than two years... enjoy the high yields... a la cciano
Mon Feb 1 21:56:54 EST 1999
anonymous: Mexico will ask IMF and WB for funds to re finance next two years of maturities... That was Mexico not Venezuela first !! So what if Venezuela does the same... BUY BUY BUYYYYYYYY
Mon Feb 1 22:03:54 EST 1999
Carlos Andres: Dime Cheeta Tu sabes los nombres para PDVSA y Bco. Central?
Mon Feb 1 23:29:37 EST 1999
anonymous: Cheetah, my friend: The 24% negative return includes your high current yield.. When are you gonna cut your losses? We are still in 1983 and have not hit bottom yet... 6 long more years before the Brady Plan -- and even that was an illusion. Countries haven't reduced their debt stock during the Brady era, they have more than doubled it! Cheetah, cheetah, cheetah -- when will you ever learn that we are in a vicious bear market that you, such a bright and shining star, won't escape??
Mon Feb 1 23:38:08 EST 1999
anonymous: A JOB LISTING FOR ALL YOU SOON TO BE UNEMPLOYED BULL MARKET GENIUSES: YOU RANG? Rising household income brings back an old occupation: butlering. More households splurge on full-time butlers -- or "household managers," as they are known in the U.S. -- as the strong economy continues to fuel spending. The Professional Domestic Institute, a Columbus, Ohio, school for butlers, offers a five-week, $4,500 class that teaches skills in housecleaning and menu-planning. Carol Scudere, the school's founder, says such skills are difficult to learn from a colleague on the job because "in this profession, people tend to work alone." Today's WSJ
Tue Feb 2 01:33:44 EST 1999
anonymous: We the cowardly loud mouth Anonymous should be ignored by serious Brady Net participants unless we use a name, have our ip address identified and so there is no possibility of multiposting insults for the sake of filling this site with the same garbage that occupies our minds. Sincerely: Repentant Anonymous
Tue Feb 2 03:19:15 EST 1999
Alexander: das kann doch wohl nicht wahr sein,da ist unser Ralfie die halbe Nacht aufgeblieben um seine "Botschaft"zu verbreiten.Sei gegrüsst Du Schlafwandler
Tue Feb 2 03:23:37 EST 1999
optimist: The louder insults the worse PL? Theres no doubt we are in 1.5 year long bear market, and at this mometn we are seeing some upward correction, on slightly justified hopes for another global (SURAM) bail out... But its still apparent that risk/rewards of BRZ, VENY or ECU assets hardly the best you can find in this market. Brasil goes along Russian scenario but outright Bradynet bulls afraid of recognizing that. Let me propose that Brasil will limit its periodic financial disclosure soon (first step already done), thus threatening investors interests. But strange thing about this all - bulls on this site are much more agressive and intolerant to bears' arguments. At some point this latest rally will finish (at best at 61 on C's) and market will become a sell again... I wonder, do Bradynet bulls ever sell??
Tue Feb 2 03:27:13 EST 1999
anonymous: The bulls must be neophytes. All the bulls I know have blown-up or have been fired.
Tue Feb 2 03:46:59 EST 1999
Alexander: Hi optimist,you have to distinguish between two kinds of BULLs,the "buy and hold-Group" who are interested in the yield (thank you,Russia/Ukr) and the "traders" who might be the agressive ones.If prices fall,I buy more and unless there is a state-default, we have no problem!!!!
Tue Feb 2 03:49:03 EST 1999
anonymous: to the contrary,I was hoping on 25% yield in BRZ,didn't work out yet.rgds.Fred
Tue Feb 2 04:04:44 EST 1999
anonymous: Alex: It depends on your entry point. Buying down here much less riskier than last year. When do you sell is the question. The market is telling us many of these countries are headed for default.
Tue Feb 2 04:07:58 EST 1999
anonymous: Alex: How is Russia opening? Do you see JPMORGAN piece on putting the 18's and 28's in the index? That generate a bid from the indexers...
Tue Feb 2 04:16:55 EST 1999
Alexander: Hi friends,well,thanks for the question,I myself have lots of BRZ27 at 81, or Ven27 at 76,if I bought that stuff on margin for price speculation,I be sold out in September too,I also bought Mother Russia28 at 16.5!! I give German prices in a moment...
Tue Feb 2 04:18:19 EST 1999
Alex: http://www.berlinerboerse.de/KURSINFO/ANL_FV/FF0025.html
Tue Feb 2 04:19:17 EST 1999
Alex: http://www.comdirect.de/informer/index.htm
Tue Feb 2 04:21:12 EST 1999
anonymous: Thanks, Alex. Russian globals the cheapest asset in the world. Think Russians carve out globals and pay them. Everything is restructured or repudiated. Funny thing, we (global holders) are better off that Russia repudiates Prins and stuffs GKO holders. Also hearing some deals in the works to swap globals for real estate and taxes. Should see 40 on your 28's in a few weeks. Ciao.
Tue Feb 2 04:21:35 EST 1999
Alex: well,<<headed for default>>,thats the risk,I guess,if you don't like it buy Bunds or USTreasuries,you had made a bundle,rgds.
Tue Feb 2 04:25:26 EST 1999
anonymous: Alex: thanks for the sites. I really needed a live page for the DAX. U da man!
Tue Feb 2 04:30:22 EST 1999
anonymous: Are the Russian Globals trading? Price on 07's, 18's, and 28's, please?
Tue Feb 2 04:39:48 EST 1999
Alex: I don't have any prices since I can wait until 2018 or 2028,daily changes do not matter so much.You can check the comdirect-site.Please do not forget these things came out at par less than year ago and fell in a "bottomless pit" before recovering. rgds. to all
Tue Feb 2 04:45:09 EST 1999
anonymous: Are u gonna hold that long?
Tue Feb 2 05:09:36 EST 1999
Alex: sure,until 2027 and 2028,where is the problem? Look at the yield... whats your FIRST name??
Tue Feb 2 05:16:20 EST 1999
anonymous: Franklin.
Tue Feb 2 05:29:53 EST 1999
Alex: http://www.wiwo.de/wwgeld/zinshit.htm
Tue Feb 2 05:39:58 EST 1999
Cciano: I think it's still time to buy, though lowest prices have passed already. When latam bonds recover more, and that should happen quickly if confidence and capital-inflows in latam markets come back on good news, we might see the globals again over par and the next new bond issues may offer only 1 digit coupon. As there is so much liquidity searching for good investments, we will see a very strong rally on relaxed latam situation and the bubble of Internet stocks could be blasted loudly. So I tend to agree with Cheetah: BUY!
Tue Feb 2 05:44:06 EST 1999
anonymous: cc: where are the Russian globals? any move on JPMORGAN announcing they will go into the index?
Tue Feb 2 05:45:36 EST 1999
anonymous: Franklin D. Loosebelt? Or Spanky?
Tue Feb 2 05:48:27 EST 1999
anonymous: what???
Tue Feb 2 06:50:07 EST 1999
anonymous: Russia 07'30-32.50, 18'26-27.125, 28' 31-32.25
Tue Feb 2 07:02:50 EST 1999
Alexander: it hit me too,since one of Spanky-Ralfies nicknames was Franklin, well seen
Tue Feb 2 08:40:26 EST 1999
optimist: One question for discussion, in case US stock market shatters (lets say 10-15 pct correction on major indices), how deep would BRZ& other SURAM would go??
Tue Feb 2 08:44:32 EST 1999
Alexander: Good point,I guess that depends ENTIRELY in these countries situation at the moment of decline.If they get financially less dependent, prices might even move higher,like Hungary,Poland,ChechRep.etc.
Tue Feb 2 08:49:06 EST 1999
frog: Soros has taken brazilian central bank. What next?
Tue Feb 2 08:52:29 EST 1999
frog: we have right now informed that Pres. brazilian central bank has fallen and in place of was appointed a Soros officer. What next?
Tue Feb 2 08:59:48 EST 1999
anonymous: Next: Spanky special guest at next G7 Meeting in Cologne.
Tue Feb 2 09:05:11 EST 1999
optimist: Julius Robertson will become new Russian PM and Mr Mobius - Rus. Central Banker..
Tue Feb 2 09:09:28 EST 1999
optimist: soros induced idea of global debt for equity swap (his recent book) .. so this must be part of a plan to create global never -suffering economy... Golden age blin..
Tue Feb 2 09:14:21 EST 1999
anonymous: Pedro Malan said had submitted his resignation together with Lopes, but Cardoso rejected it.
Tue Feb 2 11:19:32 EST 1999
anonymous: <<Spanky special guest at next G7 Meeting in Cologne.>> and next secretary of Finances in Germany, Oscar out,Spanky in!!!!
Tue Feb 2 11:50:58 EST 1999
anonymous: Germany is a country worth to leave anyway.
Tue Feb 2 13:26:16 EST 1999
anonymous: If George Soros became the Governor of the Bank of England could they loosen monetary policy, expand fiscal policy and still have a strong sterling? Hey, how 'bout the IMF replacing Cram-down-sue with Soros, and Stan Fisher with Julian Robertson. Or better yet, how bout the Russians naming Leon Cooperman as Central Bank president.. I have lived a long time, but never in my greatest imagination would I live to see a global financial market acting out a script written by Doonesbury. Dot com, of course..
Tue Feb 2 13:53:30 EST 1999
anonymous: Rumor Paulo Leme from Goldman Sachs going Central Bank with Fraga to run Treasury. Wall Street to the RESCUE!!!!!!!1
Tue Feb 2 14:22:56 EST 1999
unpourtous: Re Doonesbury: Anon I loved your post. "One has to live a long time before you have heard so much that your ears no longer fall off" old Norwegian saying. Ernest Shakleton *Endurance*.
Tue Feb 2 14:46:33 EST 1999
anonymous: CARACAS, Feb 2 (Reuters) - The inaugural speech of Venezuela's new President Hugo Chavez failed to provide substantive details of his economic policy, leaving many questions unanswered, analysts said on Tuesday. <<<<<<Cheetah -- Were you at the inaugural with your pom-poms cheerleading????
Tue Feb 2 15:25:01 EST 1999
anonymous: Some out there think Fed may raise rates tomorrow. Any takers??
Tue Feb 2 16:26:06 EST 1999
anonymous: Rudi Dornbusch (MIT) was convinced of a soft landing at the Davos Forum. As the Euro weakened vs USD ECB couldn't cut rates. Yes, if Greeny regrets the three recent cuts...
Tue Feb 2 16:29:38 EST 1999
anonymous: Think Greenspan and crew are in panic over the recent cuts. Recall Feb 4, 1994 -- noobody expecting Fed to raise. These guyz are screwed.
Tue Feb 2 16:46:57 EST 1999
anonymous: it's their job to stand it. Let's pray to (?) the screwed ones are smart enough. Beware of crying "panic".
Tue Feb 2 16:51:31 EST 1999
Capullo: 25 tomorrow 75%
Tue Feb 2 17:01:57 EST 1999
anonymous: 25 would burst the u.s. bubble.. no?
Tue Feb 2 19:08:37 EST 1999
anonymous: I think the Fed may tighten.
Tue Feb 2 19:29:07 EST 1999
Cheetah: Yes Anonymous with "poms-poms" and screaming Fidel Fidel Fidel, issue a Eurobond so I can BUY BUY BUYYYYYY !!!! As I said yesterday traders and investment bankers wern't going to like President Chavez's discourse...THEY SOLD THEY HIT BIDS..BUT..THE OFFERS NEVER CAME DOWN>>>>> Ineresting case, wonder what will happen tomorrow.... TRY COVERING enjoy
Tue Feb 2 19:34:51 EST 1999
Cheetah: To another Anonymous (get names) the PDVSA president was already announced by the time of your posting - read the news. For the Central Bank I mentioned two weeks ago that it would be Mr. PADRUM WILUVYU... Good choice by the way... initial FISCAL adjustment (taxes taxes taxes bad for equities) and reduction of gov't expenses,,, next CONVERTABILITY PLAN... Everything GOOD for bonds... BUY BUY BUYYYYY !!!!!!!!
Tue Feb 2 20:12:54 EST 1999
anonymous: Cheetah, the Atlanta Falcons could have used you on the sidelines cheering them on. Hugo is a disaster and will show his true colors in the next few months. If oil prices don't rally, Vennie is in trouble. Punto!
Tue Feb 2 20:16:20 EST 1999
anonymous: Cheetah, let's see with everyone moving off a fixed peg.. convertablity plan makes great sense.. especially for a country with such a volatile export commodity. You sure you're not an advisor to Primikov?
Tue Feb 2 21:03:23 EST 1999
Cheetah: Why are you SINNOMBRES so touchy ?? Are you NERVOUS shorts ??? Did you sell today while listening to MI COMANDANTE and then froze when there was no followthru ?? Bids came back at the end of the day but offers were higher than they were when you sold... Don't play Chavez down, he is a fantastic improvement over the dino Caldera !! Venezuela's external debt has gone DOWN 10% in the last few years to $23BB, the country has $15BB in reserves AND rising (even with oil at $8)... I predict $20BB in reserves by the end of the year and a healthier economic environment >>> FYI Consumer sentiment just went from -90% to ++97%... GOOD RIDDANCE CALDERA IS GONE !!!!!
Tue Feb 2 21:05:50 EST 1999
anonymous: By the way my SINNOMBRE friends I was shaking my poms-poms for Denver.
Tue Feb 2 21:43:19 EST 1999
anonymous: Cheeetah why do Venezuela DCB's trade 800bp over Jamaica ?
Tue Feb 2 21:44:35 EST 1999
poms-poms: That's a nice Convergence trade !
Tue Feb 2 23:06:06 EST 1999
anonymous: Cheetah: I haven't seen DCBs so well bid since Dec 9, 1994, when Jim Litner did his massive squeeze. Do you remember that or were you still in diapers. Nevertheless, a week later the Peso crashed and we were off to the races!
Tue Feb 2 23:08:04 EST 1999
anonymous: At least Ralph truely cared for the poor, Cheetah. This guy cares for one person.
Tue Feb 2 23:45:39 EST 1999
Omar: Not everybody agrees with the SIN NOMBRES:"As for the country's external dollar debt, analysts said any worries about debt moratoria after fiery rhetoric from Chavez faded long ago, and fears of non-payment of Brady bonds abated, leaving potential gains to be made on Venezuelan debt prices.". Why not be long and enjoy 2 digit cupons, and sell only when you have a better investment alternative ?. Saludos
Wed Feb 3 01:06:24 EST 1999
anonymous: To Spanki - I heard that Scholes & Krasker resigned from LTCM, maybe they want to hire another Nobel prize like you (I'm sure they'd agree with your strategies)
Wed Feb 3 09:04:25 EST 1999
Alexander: Spanky's prediction of C-Bond prices at 30 have been proven wrong. It happens often to the self-proclaimed prophets and knowitalls!!! Fact is nobody knows the future,the name of the game is speculation!! rgds.to all!!!
Wed Feb 3 09:38:41 EST 1999
optimist: What do you think , what will happen to BRZ brady/globals if Brasils sovereign ratings are cut? Should there be short lived reaction on the downside, or mkt mature for such change? regards
Wed Feb 3 09:44:02 EST 1999
anonymous: very much overrated by himself only, this she-bondaged Spanky.
Wed Feb 3 10:16:19 EST 1999
anonymous: Alex: we still have lots of time to hit 30... I said 40 handle in the mid-60's and you were spewing the same rhetoric. Things take time, my one-note charlie friend. Luv ya, Spanklin D.
Wed Feb 3 10:28:44 EST 1999
Alexander: excuse me please,you were predicting end of Jan99 for 30 on <BRAZILC=RR>,otherwise we might be dealing with 2 Spankies now???.rgds.
Wed Feb 3 11:35:42 EST 1999
anonymous: Rumor of GKO for equity swaps on the MISEX.. ????
Wed Feb 3 11:39:30 EST 1999
anonymous: Alex: Go back and look at record: 40 handle by end of Jan.. we were there in first week of Jan.. 30 handle by end of Feb.. and we still have lots of time.... and yes, there are several spankies....
Wed Feb 3 13:20:54 EST 1999
Shortster: I think Brazil is still a massive SHORT! Sell Fraga! What can Arminio do to pay off the huge debt due over the next few months? He is screwed, he should have stayed at Soros..
Wed Feb 3 13:24:20 EST 1999
Shortster: Sell Brazil Cs over 56.. These things are going back to 36.. Question - when will Russian and brazilian asset prices meet? I think at 40..
Wed Feb 3 14:53:39 EST 1999
anonymous: Rumor Fed adopted Tightening bias! Ouch!!!!!!!
Wed Feb 3 14:57:53 EST 1999
anonymous: Another one with exact predictions, but with a better style than me, I have to admit. Luv ya 2 man, Spanklin D.
Wed Feb 3 15:02:21 EST 1999
Daniel: Good article: "Brazil, Opening the Pandora's Box" http://www.bradynet.com/e462.html (Jan 29th)
Wed Feb 3 15:02:32 EST 1999
anonymous: Spanky, go buy your C Bonds.... and C them go down..
Wed Feb 3 15:16:27 EST 1999
anonymous: Hey GIRL, how com I buy SHE bond? Luv ya.
Wed Feb 3 15:21:08 EST 1999
Alexander: several Spankies and Spankies with several personalities,nice!!!! I read 30handle by Jan99 (fake Spanky)and 40handle by Jan99 (Ralfie). It was NOT at these prices Jan99,what can I do?? You were wrong,but if you want me to say that you were right,ok,you were right!!!!
Wed Feb 3 15:26:51 EST 1999
anonymous: Both Spankies should retire now. Shortster is our shooting star. C'est exactement ce qu'il nous faut!
Wed Feb 3 15:34:13 EST 1999
anonymous: Qu'il nous faut?? Des daingues sans fin!!! Naja,wir werden dies auch überstehen.
Wed Feb 3 15:48:16 EST 1999
Capullo: habla el idioma, cabron
Wed Feb 3 15:51:45 EST 1999
anonymous: <<habla el idioma, cabron>> oh,sorry Sir,are you from the language police???
Wed Feb 3 15:55:37 EST 1999
anonymous: Funny thing we have been in a 2-year bear market and you bulls are still standing? Go figure?
Wed Feb 3 16:00:27 EST 1999
anonymous: Believe it or not,there are people who do not buy everything on credit.The thing is called cash or money. really!!!
Wed Feb 3 16:02:11 EST 1999
anonymous: Chacun prend son plaisir où il le trouve
Wed Feb 3 16:03:01 EST 1999
anonymous: Oh!! I get it now, if you buy with cash and it goes down, you make money. But if you use leverage and it goes down you loose money.. Great strategy, Comrade!
Wed Feb 3 16:03:29 EST 1999
anonymous: Oh!! I get it now, if you buy with cash and it goes down, you make money. But if you use leverage and it goes down you loose money.. Great strategy, Comrade!
Wed Feb 3 16:03:42 EST 1999
anonymous: exactement,mais attention,tu va te faire engeuler par le autre
Wed Feb 3 16:03:45 EST 1999
anonymous: exactement,mais attention,tu va te faire engeuler par le autre
Wed Feb 3 16:07:36 EST 1999
anonymous: No,unlike you,there are people who have very large incomes and very large reserves,so when prices are down,its possible to buy at reasonable prices,but this is not your way of doing business,so we compare apples with potatoes.No offence meant.
Wed Feb 3 16:13:20 EST 1999
anonymous: O.K.... people with large incomes can afford to be bad traders and investors -- just like the Japanese.
Wed Feb 3 16:47:04 EST 1999
anonymous: Nice to see that Brazil and Veni ended firm... so many armaggedon types around... its getting scary...PHANTOM
Wed Feb 3 16:50:50 EST 1999
anonymous: Improve tax collection, reduce spending & corruption (you will go to jail), refinance next two years amortizations, widen the FX band (devalue 25%) and CONVERTABILITY by the end of THIS YEAR !!!!! HUGO SHRINE.... menos mal que Caldera se fue
Wed Feb 3 17:24:55 EST 1999
anonymous: <<Anonymous: O.K.... people with large incomes can afford to be bad traders and investors -- just like the Japanese.>> unlike you,there are people who keep large reserves,so there is never a great impact should prices fall.Unless you call yourself prophet or Spanky or whatever you cannot forsee the future.Buying carefully and having reserves prevents "bad" investments.What is a bad investment? A Ven27 at 105? sure,the same at 38?? no!! If you are now saying that you have always invested at the bottom and sold at the top, I have to call you a liar.
Wed Feb 3 17:29:58 EST 1999
Alexander: When Armageddons and Doomsayers hold the biggest speeches,its definitely time to buy,remember WallStreet 1974/1975
Wed Feb 3 18:20:00 EST 1999
anonymous: Why is a bear a doomsayer or Armageddon. Look who is so touchy about the bear market we are in. Half these countries will be default in 2 years. It don't help them if you buy their debt at 38 in the market. They need hard cash to refinance debt and fund growth through current account deficits. So geniuses, buy, buy, buy, and provide the takeout for the big global institutions that are rolling off credit lines faster than C bonds will go to 30.
Wed Feb 3 18:25:45 EST 1999
anonymous: 02-03-99 Anonymous: Nice to see that Brazil and Veni ended firm... so many armaggedon types around... its getting scary...PHANTOM <<< I BID YOU FAREWELL!!!!!!!!
Thu Feb 4 00:02:21 EST 1999
anonymous: I think Itamar Franco hired Spanky/Ralfie/Elvis/Nostradamus, that idiot wants to renege on Minas Euros now, the Federal Gov. should stop transfers to the state and let Itamar fry !!!!
Thu Feb 4 03:51:51 EST 1999
Alexander: <<Half these countries will be default in 2 years. It don't help them if you buy their debt at 38 in the market. They need hard cash to refinance debt and fund growth through current account deficits. So geniuses, buy, buy, buy, and provide the takeout for the big global institutions that are rolling off credit lines faster than C bonds will go to 30.>> thats again prophecies without end,eventhough your short <BRAZILC> 40 for Jan99 went wrong,so you have to cover or rollover your short.
Thu Feb 4 03:57:22 EST 1999
anonymous: <<just like the Japanese.>>had you read the message you would have seen the words CASH & LARGE RESERVES.Why was the crash in Japan?? It was a speculative real estate bubble with too much private and corporate debt.
Thu Feb 4 03:58:59 EST 1999
anonymous: <<It don't help them>>wrong!!! its: does not help them. Volkshochschule Königswinter
Thu Feb 4 05:05:19 EST 1999
Alexander: Can we all agree on,one Spanky posting <BRAZILC> at 40 by end Jan99 and at 30 by end Feb99,or was this again conspiracy by the longs??
Thu Feb 4 09:03:56 EST 1999
Capullo: Menem for president 2000
Thu Feb 4 09:13:21 EST 1999
Fox: What are the odds, the political temperature will rise so much that Arminio will not be approved by the Brazilian Senate? Today as you all know 34 congressmen changed from the Goverment alliance to more non friendly parties. Fox
Thu Feb 4 09:35:09 EST 1999
anonymous: KIEV, Feb 4 (Reuters) - Ukraine's central bank has frozen OVDP treasury bills belonging to Ukrainian banks and maturing this month in order to restructure them into new discount bonds, senior officials at local banks said on Thursday.
Thu Feb 4 09:51:39 EST 1999
anonymous: Any takers for Brazil 1 bl reais bonds sale today?.
Thu Feb 4 10:26:51 EST 1999
anonymous: No way, why taking the risk whrn you can get 50% on the o/n market Also be aware that the cost of rolling over and servicing Brazil's 340 billion reais this debt rises $2 billion every time rates rise 1 percentage point. There is great chances they will restructure this debt, why anyone would like to be caught holding it ? Regards, JPC
Thu Feb 4 10:33:54 EST 1999
anonymous: Ukraine freezes all payments now,in order to get the DM Bonds(2/25)paid
Thu Feb 4 13:20:50 EST 1999
anonymous: The Brazilian government is willing to risk a deeper recession to steady the currency. I'm concerned about their ability to stabilize their debt levels. Their debt is rising on an explosive path. Companies are paying the price for the government's efforts to gets its finances in order. High rates are expected to crush Brazil's economy this year I can't invest in a country where the government doesn't take the stability of their country more seriously than I do JPC
Thu Feb 4 14:28:13 EST 1999
anonymous: Hey Ralfie,gold mining share up big! You see,sometimes you are right too
Thu Feb 4 14:33:30 EST 1999
Omar: Upcoming Brazil-IMF news conference, the rumor is that they could announce a restructure of Brazil's IMF debt. Not good news for short positions if that happens...Greetings
Thu Feb 4 14:41:55 EST 1999
anonymous: Please absolutely NO GOOD NEWS FOR RALFIE !, he might turn into a normal person and stop amussing us with his histeria
Thu Feb 4 14:42:03 EST 1999
anonymous: Alex: 40 handle does not mean 40 dollar price.. In the 40's does not mean 40 1/2.. Get it. Next time I will take your money...Luv ya, Spanklin D
Thu Feb 4 14:43:40 EST 1999
anonymous: Excuse my ignorance, but what does a 40 handle means if is not 40 % of face value. Thanks
Thu Feb 4 14:44:15 EST 1999
anonymous: February 4, 1999 Russia Needs More Than $2 Billion To Address Its Year-2000 Problem By ALAN S. CULLISON Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL<<< HOW MUCH DOES BRAZIL NEED????

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