Color of the Market Archive, Page #7
Color of the Market A R C H I V E 

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The Color of the Market has been an online meeting place for people interested in emerging market debt since 1996, and has undergone many changes in that time. We have discovered an old archive of Color of the Market messages, covering 5 months starting in late 1998. For the benefit of both old and new Bradynetters, we present this archive untouched.

Note: Back in these days, the forum software was greatly different than the Color of the Market that we are now accustomed to. Without the requirement of registration, the forum began to attract disrupters who would engage in vulgarities, name-calling, impersonation of users, and other childish hijinks. But if you can wade through the nonsense, some of the comments herein are historic, and prophetic.

Enjoy,
IDEAGlobal/BradyNet Staff

Thu Feb 4 14:47:23 EST 1999
anonymous: YK2 is a perfect excuse for all wakos to strenghten their doomsday scenarios !!!!
Thu Feb 4 15:20:16 EST 1999
anonymous: Is Y2K gonna be a problem, or not, for the emerging markets? Yes or no? None of this BULL __it!! Yes, or no geniuses??
Thu Feb 4 15:40:10 EST 1999
anonymous: nuclear-war-head missiles will not launch automatically, nor warheads explode of their own accord - but they may not launch or explode if commanded to do so. provided relatively elementary precautions are taken, the wide-area power grids will not crash. (James C. Bennett, December 1998)
Thu Feb 4 15:42:55 EST 1999
anonymous: bennett@transnational.net
Thu Feb 4 15:46:08 EST 1999
anonymous: I am talking about capital flight!!! Not nuclear warheads.. You guyz are gonna loose alot more money than thought! Whewwwwwwwwwwwww!!!!
Thu Feb 4 15:56:55 EST 1999
anonymous: it won't be the last major disorder. Panic, if it's your fancy.
Thu Feb 4 15:58:20 EST 1999
Alexander: now you got me!What does 40handle mean??? To my knowledge between 40.5 and 49.5 or am I wrong???I love you too,Spanky,don't worry....
Thu Feb 4 15:59:29 EST 1999
anonymous: S&P futures gonna close limit down.. I love it when markets tank!! A nice little core meltdown will spook all you bulls, ah!!!!
Thu Feb 4 16:01:51 EST 1999
anonymous: Yes, Alex. We traded at 48 1/2... I did not say 40 handle at the end, I said by the end.... And it depends on what you mean the word is, is... Luv ya, Bill Clinton
Thu Feb 4 16:04:13 EST 1999
anonymous: Dow 9304.76 -62.05 (-0.66%) Nasdaq 2410.21 -83.20 (-3.34%) S&P 500 1248.51 -23.56 (-1.85%) Markets tank ???? What ?? Where ??
Thu Feb 4 16:05:31 EST 1999
anonymous: O, guess your used to the 20% moves on the BOVESPA...
Thu Feb 4 16:06:09 EST 1999
anonymous: seems to be intoxicated, this guy.
Thu Feb 4 16:08:19 EST 1999
Alexander: Are you talking about the <BRAZC>?? Which today was at BRAZ C MAR99 56.48 UNCH?? And which you said to be at 40 by end Jan??? and 30 by end Feb???
Thu Feb 4 17:03:44 EST 1999
anonymous: brazil's malan says next imf loan tranche will be equal to 1st 9 bln tranche
Thu Feb 4 17:08:00 EST 1999
anonymous: IMF 's Fischer, speaking at a news conference, said he felt "much better" about the country's financial situation after meeting with Brazilian officials in person for three days.
Thu Feb 4 17:10:09 EST 1999
Capullo: Yes, but he didn't specify which country.
Thu Feb 4 17:40:56 EST 1999
anonymous: Hi girlie men! How are my she-bonds doing? I am sorry to say they are gonna go south!! Luv ya, Spanklin D.
Thu Feb 4 17:42:53 EST 1999
anonymous: Stan Fisher has a warm feeling in his tummy about Brazil. Buy!! Buy!! Buy!! Buy!!
Thu Feb 4 17:47:21 EST 1999
anonymous: <<Hi girlie men! How are my she-bonds doing? I am sorry to say they are gonna go south!! Luv ya, Spanklin D.>> but you are not short, just jabbering on this board,and calling everybody girls, maybe you should check with the "girlie men" sites, this is a business site,friend Ralf
Thu Feb 4 17:52:22 EST 1999
anonymous: Spanky: you should retire from bradynet. I think you've learned enough from the bull market geniuses that frequent this site. Tell your psychologist you're ready to just go long and pray and join the masses of the SHE-bond cheerleaders. Shylock
Thu Feb 4 17:52:46 EST 1999
anonymous: If this is a business site? I am sorry I thought it was the Ophry Winfrey Show? But, it did have a distinct odor of a bunch Bulls relieving themselves!
Thu Feb 4 17:56:31 EST 1999
Alexander: To Shylock and Opry Winfried,if you continue like that we get the same mess as in Nov/Dec.What for?? Can't we simply communicate without personal remarks??
Thu Feb 4 18:14:15 EST 1999
anonymous: Nasty cover story on Russia in the Economist. They do not understand that IMF is providing new money Russia, only rollover of debt, which will happen. Also articles conclude Eurobonds will most likely be paid. Unlike S&P who doubts it. S&P has been the perfect contrarian indicator. Downgraded Korea at the bottom and Russia at the top. Buy 'em and sell Spanky.
Thu Feb 4 18:19:26 EST 1999
Alexander: <<Also articles conclude Eurobonds will most likely be paid.>>is my guess too,if they do NOT pay the Eurobonds there is a total state default,nobody wants that!!
Thu Feb 4 18:22:25 EST 1999
anonymous: The IMF should understand a Russian Eurobond default will create another round of havoc in emerging markets.
Thu Feb 4 18:29:24 EST 1999
Alexander: They do,but at the same time the problems (tax collection/budget etc) have not decreased!So,what to do?Give enough money to prevent default,I think.
Thu Feb 4 18:51:46 EST 1999
risk v reward: Friends:As my favorite finance professor used to say "You can eat well or you can sleep well". You surely didn't think that 50% ytm was a cakewalk? Cheers unpourtous
Thu Feb 4 23:11:44 EST 1999
Cheetah: With my coupon of my Veni 18's (18% current yld) payable today, I will buy some Russia 18's... and I will just keep on accumulating... see you in Vail and St Barths maybe Courchevel for the year 2000 !! Salud
Thu Feb 4 23:19:19 EST 1999
Cheer-ah: Nice bond: COMTEL (Brazil) fully guaranteed by TELESP. Net Debt is -1%, trades in mid 70%
Thu Feb 4 23:55:47 EST 1999
anonymous: Cheetah: You will be my waiter at the Hyatt in St. Barts
Fri Feb 5 00:10:27 EST 1999
anonymous: Sorry about that Cheetah, there is no Hyatt at St Barts.. apply at the Marriot!!
Fri Feb 5 00:19:16 EST 1999
anonymous: Don't forget you pom-pom's, Cheat-DAH!
Fri Feb 5 01:02:08 EST 1999
anonymous: Hi girls!! Sorry about this, but the coming correction is going to be a bit painful! You will only be castrated bulls, but still have your horns. Luv ya, Spanklin D
Fri Feb 5 02:59:07 EST 1999
anonymous: Heute hat Ralf besonders gut ausgeschlafen.
Fri Feb 5 03:17:51 EST 1999
anonymous: Nee,denk ich nicht,meiner Meinung nach,sitzt er 24/24h vor der Glotze,zeigt und klickt wie ein trainierter Affe
Fri Feb 5 03:20:58 EST 1999
Alexander: No,if you don't buy too much you can sleep very well! Russians are my favorites too!
Fri Feb 5 03:23:05 EST 1999
anonymous: one thing we can promise you,Ralfie,if you are really short and it goes wrong,you can read about it in SPIEGEL & FOCUS
Fri Feb 5 04:41:51 EST 1999
anonymous: Dann kannst Du Deinen eigenen Nachruf schreiben, als Artikel der Woche oder so. Mal was neues.
Fri Feb 5 04:55:48 EST 1999
anonymous: Ich werde den Eindruck nicht los,dass er in seinem Übermut und seiner Überheblichkeit echt voll short gegangen ist,um es uns mal so richtig zu beweisen!!!!!
Fri Feb 5 07:18:34 EST 1999
Fox: Things will start to get warmer in Brazil: a. Due to congressmen party exchanges PMDB as become the 2nd largest party, it was the 3rd after teh election. b. PMDB president has stated that there is no CPMF unless they get gasoline tax whichgoes entirely to their transportation minister. c. Alliance parties are revolted with the idea inflation will be double digit during the year; Kandir "double digit inflation threathens governavility". d. A 2.6% primary surplus a 3.0% to 3.5% is tit possible? e. Control of monetary aggregates implies on interest rates will be whatever level they need to be. f. Krugman's Alas Brazil is wothwhile reading.
Fri Feb 5 09:10:25 EST 1999
anonymous: The IMF spends money frivolously... look at Russia; how can you give good money after bad!
Fri Feb 5 09:17:12 EST 1999
anonymous: if Russia is protected from disintegration would you agree with me G7 countries taxpayers' money is, say, well spent?
Fri Feb 5 09:24:12 EST 1999
anonymous: The russian news agency Interfax gives yesterday an interesting news story: The CBR (Central Bank of Russia) transfered in times before august 1998 big sums of hard currency to an off-shore comp. in Jersey (Channel Island). They speak about some 37 bio US$, about 9.9 bio. DM, 379 bio of Yens and 11 bio FF. A special prosecutor should have found this out. If you read the text of this announcement on the web site of Interfax it gives you the impression as if these funds are still existing and disponibel to the Russian Central Bank and can be retransfered. If this story would be true..... Go and look on the web site of Interfax.
Fri Feb 5 09:40:01 EST 1999
anonymous: Am I right, GIRLS???? I always sell your euphoria and pom-poms!!
Fri Feb 5 09:49:09 EST 1999
anonymous: The IMF agreement announced Thursday to narrow the government's budget deficit and cap inflation at 10 percent produced few details on how Brazil will slash spending, stabilize its currency and stem rising prices. It is still not clear how the government will raise more money and keep inflation down without raising interest rates even more.
Fri Feb 5 10:08:05 EST 1999
anonymous: <<Am I right, GIRLS???? I always sell your euphoria and pom-poms!!>>No.you are not right,you have been sold out by Jan99 and now you try to save yourself until Feb99.
Fri Feb 5 10:13:10 EST 1999
Alexander: Hi Girl!Are you talking about the <BRAZC>?? Which today was at BRAZ C MAR99 56.48 UNCH?? And which you said to be at 40 by end Jan??? and 30 by end Feb???
Fri Feb 5 10:21:58 EST 1999
JMC: Re Anon I just checked the interfax site and couldn't see any info on the currency transfers, could you provide more details.
Fri Feb 5 10:22:52 EST 1999
anonymous: C Bond (cash) 56.125 56.375 - 1.62
Fri Feb 5 10:24:26 EST 1999
Alexander: I copied yesterdays message because the person did not answer the questions,thanks
Fri Feb 5 10:40:42 EST 1999
anonymous: to JMC: I got this news with all the other Interfax news of february 4th, 1999 as an e-mail from Interfax. I do not know if this news is also in the common internet web site. If I have the time later today, I will give the exact wording which is quite long.
Fri Feb 5 10:59:00 EST 1999
anonymous: I know, I know bulls! C bonds are going higher.. Wait 'till the Dow drops 1000 points in one day sometime this year. C Bonds will be much higher!
Fri Feb 5 11:09:03 EST 1999
anonymous: Market feels a little "C" sick. Think we go lower!
Fri Feb 5 11:09:44 EST 1999
Alexander: <<Wait 'till the Dow drops 1000 points in one day sometime this year.>> hey Shorty/Ralfie/Spanky/ or whoever,may I suggest another short,like S&P futures,for you!
Fri Feb 5 11:11:46 EST 1999
anonymous: don't forget your handle,you have 20 days!30 by end Feb99
Fri Feb 5 11:17:12 EST 1999
anonymous: How you guess, Alex! S&P futures now negative for the year.. and for your info, EMBI running at an 80% daily correlation with the S&P... go figure? so much for de-Worstifaction!
Fri Feb 5 11:25:01 EST 1999
Alexander: <<de-Worstifaction!>>???? jetzt bin ich aber überfragt, von dieser Definition höre ich heute zum ersten Mal. I am from the muddle-through-co.no charts or theories for me! schönes Wochenende,nice weekend to all(long&shorts)
Fri Feb 5 11:48:30 EST 1999
anonymous: Thank goodness for all the Germans on this site. I have dealt in the global markets for many years and the Germans are very good businessmen and probably my preference as a business partner. Just wish you would get your government to provide more leadership with Russia. The bozo's at the U.S. Treasury screwed it up and now Jeffrey Sucks is telling the Russians to default -- that is why he is still at Harvard. It's all academic to him, and Russians will have to live with his advice..
Fri Feb 5 11:51:35 EST 1999
Alex: Hi friend,don't worry,the Russians know what is at stake, and they already have defaulted on the PRINs,thats a very big part of their debt, they will not risk an EURO default,I guess
Fri Feb 5 12:02:07 EST 1999
Trawler: Brady Netters - does anyone have an opinion/comment on why the Rus/18 trades at a discount to the Rus/26 after accounting for the coupon? also despite all the talk about default which do you recommend?
Fri Feb 5 12:13:55 EST 1999
Alex: the RusFed28 has the put option in 2008,check the site on BradyNet
Fri Feb 5 12:51:25 EST 1999
Raymond: 18 not issued at Par but at a discount..therefore, cannot accelerate to Par in the event of default. Also technicals..
Fri Feb 5 13:37:27 EST 1999
anonymous: True, Alex.. but worthless today...
Fri Feb 5 14:07:22 EST 1999
unpourtous: Interesting how all these unfavorable, viz a viz russia, rumors, announcements, and analyses are not moving prices downwards.
Fri Feb 5 14:11:11 EST 1999
Alex: <<True, Alex.. but worthless today... >> Baseball:it ain't over until its over!!!
Fri Feb 5 14:13:36 EST 1999
anonymous: alex: you don't bring in your ace reliever until the 9th inning. We are still in the first inning and don't know if the game will be close in the 9th.. 9 years is a long way and with a 60% discount rate, value 9 years out is worth the big goose egg!
Fri Feb 5 14:27:48 EST 1999
Alex: I buy this thing,they will pay,I guess.... after coupon day -2/25- I also buy some more Chernobyl,I mean Ukraine!
Fri Feb 5 14:33:53 EST 1999
Cheetah: Anonymous (get names) there is no Marriot on St Barths either and the only "poms-poms" are enjoyed on the beach and "free" !! Alas, what would you know - being a rouge trader - there are no "all inclusives" ... well Veni has paid coupon on global 18 so reinvest in Russia 18's and enjoy the yield... should I sell my IAN's and buy more Russki 18's Alex ? CCiano ? Wally ?
Fri Feb 5 14:43:33 EST 1999
Alex: Hi Cheetah,maybe you wait some time,do not rush.... the Bonds will not run away and prices are going sideways
Fri Feb 5 16:15:58 EST 1999
Omar: Hi Cheetah, I also have Venni 18 but I thought that the cupon was payable on the 15th ?. Personally I'm going to use the cash to buy a basket of Nasdaq 100 shares, the prices took a pretty big punch this week.Saludos
Fri Feb 5 16:39:51 EST 1999
Omar: Forgot to ask: to the SIN NOMBRES, I know you don't believe in EM issues, but do you have any recommendation to invest the cash from this cupon ?. Greetings
Fri Feb 5 16:49:02 EST 1999
anonymous: Yes.. in my fund, Omar
Fri Feb 5 17:22:50 EST 1999
anonymous: <<Yes.. in my fund >> if you call $3.50 a fund
Fri Feb 5 18:09:29 EST 1999
anonymous: Brazil had no credibility last week and will still don't have it now.It is still not clear how the government will raise more money and keep inflation down without raising interest rates even more There's neither credit, nor money inflows and that's what Brazil needs the most. At least there's no panic, which is something,especially considering last Friday. Carnival starts next Friday. Pretty much nothing is expected to happen before that. So for me Carnival, sand, sun, caipirhinia sex and samba are only pre occupations. Enjoy JPC
Fri Feb 5 19:20:07 EST 1999
Cheetah: You should not be a "Sinnombre", I sea you enjoy life and use your double digit yields correctly, Brazil will be coupon clipping for some time and call selling to enhance our yields, something the rabid shorts can not understand... Venezuela will be the play for capital gains/losses and some Russia for outright speculation. Have a good weekend.
Fri Feb 5 22:13:41 EST 1999
anonymous: Short on Emerging Bonds = Short on brains
Fri Feb 5 22:34:00 EST 1999
anonymous: to Cheetah: I would sell the IAN and buy Russia 28 or 18.
Fri Feb 5 23:10:33 EST 1999
anonymous: 3.50 a share for 100 mm shares, Omardi Gras!!
Sat Feb 6 04:01:42 EST 1999
Alexander: <<Short on Emerging Bonds = Short on brains>> your statement is unpolite and unseless.It creates agressivity and hatred,what we really do not need on this board. Being short or long is a financial decision and WE (Longs) have to accept that viewpoint.rgds.
Sat Feb 6 04:05:41 EST 1999
anonymous: stop the INSULTS on this board!!! No more!!!
Sat Feb 6 08:08:54 EST 1999
anonymous: Week after week I realize on this site how little minds these traders are, just talking stupid things, using stupid words. My conclusion: Never trust a banker or a trader in matter of investing. Inform yourself, get all the news you can get yourself - for instance for Russia the Interfax News bulletin daily - and let aside this so called professionels.
Sat Feb 6 08:20:06 EST 1999
anonymous: I say:Too much Information=Ruination,looks like your viewpoint too??? We have to see the price and decide ourselves, no charts,no theories!
Sat Feb 6 08:27:33 EST 1999
Cciano: Right, you should only trust yourself, in my opinion you can't even trust in Interfax. By the way: It does NO HARM to append a name.
Sat Feb 6 08:36:04 EST 1999
Alex: Hi Cciano,100% agreed,chrtist magic only messes up the prices,rgds.
Sat Feb 6 08:38:19 EST 1999
Alex,again: ...and as prices move on NEWS,charts are useless in that field,example Brazil/Russia!
Sat Feb 6 09:40:12 EST 1999
Cciano: Hi Cheetah, despite of Spanky's advices and proph's, I extend Bra 27, Ven 18 and EC402. Also bought little Rus 18 (Booked on my "Gambling Acct.")though I do not like it very much (Comes from my belly). Hi Alex, Grüsse an Karl Eduard und Erich ;-).
Sat Feb 6 10:53:13 EST 1999
Alexander: hähähähähä,gekauft habe wir ein Riesengemäuer weil alle anderen nach der Wende zu raffgierig waren!!! Berlin/Mitte,voll vermietet 10fache JM. Mit den Bonds ist es genau das gleiche,die Anderen gehen pleite aber uns gibts immer.Grüsse
Sat Feb 6 10:56:24 EST 1999
Alex: Kein GAMBLING:Ich & Compagnons kaufen RusFed18 und RusFed28,die Russen bekommen nur soviel Geld um nicht DEFAULT zu gehen,für unsere Zinsen reicht das allemal,momentan kein BRZ oder VEN,hab ich sowieso schon noch & nöcher.....
Sat Feb 6 11:11:52 EST 1999
anonymous: Russian prices will be pulled down if LatAm Bonds retreat
Sat Feb 6 11:36:19 EST 1999
anonymous: Which prices for RF 28/18/07 or 01 do you expect, given latam retreat? Rgds. Non-Gambler
Sat Feb 6 12:44:19 EST 1999
anonymous: Fridays market was a typical example,LatAm weaker and despite encouraging IMF info Russians 1-2pt lower,what is your opinion on that ????rgds.too!!!
Sat Feb 6 13:34:02 EST 1999
Omar: What seemed like bad news to Wall Street (strong US economy) should be good news to commodity exporting countries which would benefit from the increase in demand, in fact basic material and commodity related stocks were the big winers on Friday. Good weekend to everyone
Sat Feb 6 13:48:24 EST 1999
anonymous: re latam/rus: seems to be the ever lasting contagion effect ticket. Enjoy your weekend, Non-Gambler
Sat Feb 6 14:12:13 EST 1999
anonymous: 02-06-99 Anonymous: Fridays market was a typical example,LatAm weaker and despite encouraging IMF info Russians 1-2pt lower,what is your opinion on that ???? <<< THERE IS NO BID FOR THIS MARKET, THAT IS WHAT IT TELLS ME.. "UBID.COM -- IS A GOOD NAME FOR THIS MARKET, I Don't wanna bid, U Bid!!""" HAHAHAHAHA!!!
Sat Feb 6 14:17:45 EST 1999
anonymous: Remember this, GIRLIE BULLS? SPANKY WROTE ON 02-05-99 Anonymous: Hi girls!! Sorry about this, but the coming correction is going to be a bit painful! You will only be castrated bulls, but still have your horns. Luv ya, Spanklin D <<< SHAME ON YOU GERMAN SKEPTICS!!!!
Sat Feb 6 18:22:55 EST 1999
Alex: Right,we have to stop the insults and especially the insults from so called SPANKY. This is a business site and these people must take their "hobby" somwhere else.
Sat Feb 6 19:00:58 EST 1999
anonymous: I agree 100% with Alex about Spanky and his (german-berlin) friends. It is not only a insult to each other of them but also an insult to all who read this site.
Sat Feb 6 19:01:10 EST 1999
anonymous: I agree 100% with Alex about Spanky and his (german-berlin) friends. It is not only a insult to each other of them but also an insult to all who read this site.
Sat Feb 6 19:08:06 EST 1999
anonymous: Why the prices of the Russian Euros went down 1-2 points? I think it is for several reasons: There are always more people (banks, funds) who sell and there are no buyers in the same size. The issues of the 18 and 28 bond are very big and have not yet found real investors. On the other hand: I am of the opinion that you have not yet to buy these bonds for higher prices but for their return. That is enough, at least for me.
Sat Feb 6 19:15:54 EST 1999
Cheetah: Just a view: Veni imports will be down 4BB, capital acct will increase by 2BB, restructurings 2BB >>>> RESULT: Foreign Reserves will approach 20BB by the end of the year... Up from 15BB now... HOLD BUY HOLD BUY HOLD ENJOY !!!
Sat Feb 6 22:39:26 EST 1999
Omar: I also agree with Alex and suggest that we ignore ANY messages that contain insults, and reply only to those worth of a business site like this.
Sun Feb 7 04:35:18 EST 1999
anonymous: <<Spanky and his(german-berlin)friends>> the Berlin Group are his enemies, everybody is LONG!!!
Sun Feb 7 04:39:44 EST 1999
Alex: If you are offended by insults etc.,please complain to <bradynet@bradynet.com> .rgds.
Sun Feb 7 05:58:23 EST 1999
Cciano: Guten Morgen Alex, Dein Freund Gerald hört nicht zufällig auf den Spitznamen "Corner"? Wäre auch ein Riesenzufall. Habe in Berlin Abi gemacht. Grüsse aus BCN.
Sun Feb 7 06:56:52 EST 1999
Alex: Hallo Cciano,unser Gerald hat es gar nicht bis zum Abi geschafft, dafür was er aber einer der ersten mit den Immobilien(70er Jahre). Meld Dich mal........
Sun Feb 7 10:13:06 EST 1999
anonymous: I would like to ask you all, you mighty traders and bankers, could you not speak in an understandable english, understandable to all, also to investors who are not bankers or traders and who do not have the knowledge of you. So, long and short, Veni and BR and so on. Remeber that there are people they do not understand what you mean, but would be interested in what you say. Would it be possible?
Sun Feb 7 10:37:26 EST 1999
anonymous: any "profession" is a conspiracy towards Joe Public.
Sun Feb 7 11:02:21 EST 1999
Alex: I understand your point and agree, should I use another language then it concerns non-business subjects.rgds.
Sun Feb 7 11:04:06 EST 1999
Alex: Should you have a question you can ask.....
Sun Feb 7 13:07:56 EST 1999
Omar: Long means that you have bought and hold a security hoping that it will increase in value for a future sale. Short means that you have borrowed and sold a security that you don't have and will have to replace in the future but since you expect the price to drop you will profit from the lower replacement cost. Venni means Venezuela, BR means Brazil. As Alex says if you have a question you should ask, there are many serious participants in this forum that have been helpful to others and to me also. Regards
Sun Feb 7 14:02:41 EST 1999
anonymous: It is not a question of "professional" or not professional. Me, I am a lawyer and I cannot afford to have a language which not everybody could understand. This attitude of some low-level professionals to show their importance using "professional" words is nothing else than a quite stupid snobisme and is - to speak with former chancellor Willy Brandt - dumm and shows a great "Unwissenheit". An intelligent man always speaks a language which everybody can understand. It is -by the way - also a question of good education, if you know what I mean.
Sun Feb 7 14:06:08 EST 1999
anonymous: "Unwissenheit".its Unwissendheit,Sir,NO offence meant.
Sun Feb 7 15:51:16 EST 1999
anonymous: If you truly want to ask a question...NO INSULTS and at least get a name...you need to establish some credibility before your comments are taken serioulsly
Sun Feb 7 17:24:18 EST 1999
anonymous: Why is the word SELL an insult or 4-letter word? It is clear these countries are headed for default. Why can't the truth be spoken on this web site, without a revolt? The fact is, the world is in the midst of a major credit contraction on a global basis -- credit creation in the U.S. is financing an over leveraged and over investor consumer and thing is beginning to unwind. That is fact! Does it hurt that much?
Sun Feb 7 17:29:56 EST 1999
anonymous: nonono,sorry,nobody insults you for that,but be specific! Which countries??
Sun Feb 7 17:30:56 EST 1999
anonymous: Was gibts Neues,Junge??
Sun Feb 7 17:50:47 EST 1999
anonymous: The emerging market counties -- Argentina, Brazil, Venezuela, Ecuador, .. Russia and Korea have already defaulted.. China defaulting on several bonds.. Not all sovereigns.. but some will.. Get the picture?
Sun Feb 7 17:54:06 EST 1999
anonymous: <<Argentina, Brazil, Venezuela, Ecuador,>> most like ly no default, but if you are short and gamble on that,ok,no problem.Russia defaulted on soviet debt, no default on RusFed debt,we shall see
Sun Feb 7 18:05:58 EST 1999
anonymous: <<Korea>> which Korea ?? North or South ??
Sun Feb 7 18:12:48 EST 1999
anonymous: The one that defaulted on 40 bn of interbank lines..
Sun Feb 7 18:32:16 EST 1999
anonymous: Are you now saying that South Korea is in default???
Sun Feb 7 18:37:07 EST 1999
anonymous: Go short on Korea,where is the problem.
Sun Feb 7 19:44:47 EST 1999
anonymous: You are such ignoramus its not worth my time..
Sun Feb 7 19:52:34 EST 1999
anonymous: Korea, who?
Sun Feb 7 21:18:58 EST 1999
anonymous: maybe you are right: is it Unwissendheit? Do you have a Duden? Please take a look. I am far from my office and cannot look myself. "Dieser Einwand ist dumm und zeugt von grosser Unwissenheit", würde ich doch sagen, hat damals Willy Brandt gesagt. Aber wenn Sie Unwissen - d - heit meinen. Es scheint mir so unrichtig. Schauen Sie doch mal nach. Ich lasse mich gerne belehren.
Sun Feb 7 21:40:29 EST 1999
Cheetah: Venezuela has NEVER defaulted on a Eurobond !!! Please be serious with your commentary... and with the current plan to reduce it's fiscal deficit for this year to 3% of GDP and balance it's budget for '00 WITH a fixed currency to the USD... will leave MANY Shorts wondering what happened... why they did'nt BUY BUY BUUUUUYYYYYY !!!!!!!!
Sun Feb 7 21:45:20 EST 1999
Cheetah: For the Veni mathematics: PDVSA is worth 100BB, CITGO is worth 30BB ?, Veba Oil 10BB ?, Foreign Reserves are 15BB, various privatizations 10BB.... Foreign debt is 23BB + M2 is 13BB + Internal Debt is 3BB.... ADD and SUBSTRACT.... GO SHORT ?????
Sun Feb 7 22:16:37 EST 1999
anonymous: CheetaH: Venezuela has never had so many eurobonds (inc brady bonds) outstanding.... Oil in Siberia dwarfs Vennie reserves.. So why did Russia default? Just for the fun of it?
Sun Feb 7 22:38:53 EST 1999
Cheetah: On the contrary Venezuela has REDUCED it's stock of Bonds by 10% over the last 3 years... Do the Math - even with oil prices where they are Venezuela's reserves are INCREASING and ALL the LOCAL CURRENCY (M2) PLUS Internal Debt (at the central parity FX) is more or less equal to Foreign Reserves... Don't bet Soros will short this currency... do some research - confirm what I am indicating.
Sun Feb 7 22:40:46 EST 1999
Cheetah: by the way - Siberia is a little bit apart from the USA.. Do you know where Venezuela is located ???
Mon Feb 8 00:56:08 EST 1999
Robert: "Unwissenheit" und "Unwissendheit" sind zwei verschiedene Worte mit unterschiedlicher Bedeutung - es handelt sich also nicht nur um einen Unterschied in der Schreibweise.
Mon Feb 8 01:05:05 EST 1999
Cciano: One question to the "doomies": Given the case your worst scenario to come true, i.e. default of all latam countries named below, what do you think will be the consequences for the rest of the world, USA, Europe and Japan, eh? Any (serious) answer welcome.
Mon Feb 8 01:06:54 EST 1999
anonymous: Cheetah: do the economics. think you have M2 confused with the monetary base. with oil headed down to 10 $ per bbl, Vennie crude should move to around 6.. not much to bullish about there... and only a matter months if not weeks before Hugo shows his true colors.. esp. when he finds out that there's less of chance of getting rich as President in an emerging market bear market.. face it guys, we are in a bear market!
Mon Feb 8 01:11:25 EST 1999
anonymous: 02-08-99 Cciano: (62.81.75.13) One question to the "doomies": <<< A bone crushing bear market and recession.. in fact, the U.S. cracking is what will set off the massive cap flight from LatAm that will start the round of defaults, which the IMF will bless, by the way... The script has been written, actors on a stage, just waiting for the curtain to rise. Have a nice day, : - >
Mon Feb 8 01:40:47 EST 1999
anonymous: How are my Berlin friends doing today?
Mon Feb 8 03:13:56 EST 1999
Alexander: Hi Cciano,Hi Cheetah,having read the anonymous messages,mostly from the doom&gloom departement,makes me wonder if they really went short massively or were just talking.We have snow in Holland,very rare.Habe mit den Berlinern noch nicht telefoniert.Viellicht kaufen wir heute ein paar RusFed...Grüsse/regards
Mon Feb 8 03:23:50 EST 1999
Alex: <<Oil in Siberia dwarfs Vennie reserves.. So why did Russia default? Just for the fun of it?>> Siberian Oil has to be produced and transported,there is no sufficient infrastructure yet. Russia is uncomparable to Venezuela,they still have to overcome 75yrs.of communism!
Mon Feb 8 06:26:47 EST 1999
Alexander: Question: Are you now saying that South Korea is in default??? Answer: You are such ignoramus its not worth my time.. NICE!!!!
Mon Feb 8 07:53:10 EST 1999
Fox: Cciano your point is is very relevant. USA, Europe and Japan would certainly be in bad shape if Latam were to default. The truth of the matter is that peripheral economies have enjoyed a substantial expansion of capital form center economies because of their true potential. Leaving aside the USA the other two regions have important structural challenges, such as their fiscal structure. European countries are fiscally sound if their pension plans are not taking into to consideration. Some economists have named this effect "the fiscal time bomb", even Germany has great difficulty complying with Maastricht when pension plans'deficits are taking into account. Two elements create this problem: a. Type of system; pay as you go. b. Aging population. Japan is clearly the worst its retiring population will double in the next 20 years. Latam is even in better demographic shape then Emerging Europe since the latter shares older population with the rest of Europe. Neverheless, the issue is for how long will the expansion of capital will be interrupted to Latam and if the Latam leaders/society will be able to put up with the hardships this will bring about. Note that Brazil's largest recession was in 1983, a full 3.0% of GDP, it seems 1999 will be much worst. Will the Brazilian society put with this?
Mon Feb 8 08:51:00 EST 1999
Cheetah: Anonymous check out Venezuela's M2 PLUS internal debt... do your numbers AND your economics - Foreign Reserves at central parity equals those two numbers... I think you may be noticing your mistake or the superficial character of your commentary.
Mon Feb 8 10:05:05 EST 1999
anonymous: Alex: and Venezuela is a free market... Venezuela must have 60 bn offshore.. talk about corruption!!
Mon Feb 8 10:07:13 EST 1999
anonymous: Guess Spanky was right on Wednesday! Market looks like its correcting. Go SPANKYYYYYYYYYYYY!!
Mon Feb 8 10:08:24 EST 1999
Alex: I was there,I know the country.During the last crisis the Venezolanos bought their own Gov't bonds.Will they let Ven go broke? Never!!!!!!rgds.
Mon Feb 8 10:09:29 EST 1999
anonymous: I am really hoping Bill Gates will invent a "cyber shovel." We could use it in this site. Everytime I log on my cyber shoes get nuttin' but bull chit on them... Alex you can do the shoveling..
Mon Feb 8 10:10:01 EST 1999
anonymous: Which SPANKY?The German,the Latin or the US???
Mon Feb 8 10:12:05 EST 1999
Alex: <<get nuttin' but bull chit on them...>> come on friend,I don't mind the bullshit as long as there are no insults & vulgarities!!Take it easy...
Mon Feb 8 10:26:32 EST 1999
anonymous: Alex, I must say I really appreciate your commentary and you seem to have a very amiable personality. But why is when a bear insults a bull, it is an insult. But when a bull insults a bear, it is in the name of the language police -- e.g., "come on, this is a business site".. Such hypocrisy, Alex. I remember the first time Spankee said C Bonds were going to a 40 handle when they were trading at 63, Wally called him an a__hole.. Such hypocrites!!!
Mon Feb 8 10:35:03 EST 1999
anonymous: Why always: bull sh.. and other big words. It is a terrible american manner to take always these awful big words. Why not say: I would buy Venezuelan bonds for the reason: a. ....... and b. ....... and what do you other mean? And not always be so terribly personal. We speak about buying or selling emerging market bonds. Why insulting? Is it such a dirty business that insulting is included? I do not think so.
Mon Feb 8 10:41:06 EST 1999
anonymous: O.K... I would sell Venezuela bonds because a) they will eventually default; b) Oil prices are going to US$10 bbl, putting Ven crude at about US$5-6 bbl; c) Chavez has no problem being a renegade and makes me nervous about political stability; and, most important, d) traders are very long -- just look at Cheetah.
Mon Feb 8 10:54:51 EST 1999
anonymous: 02-08-99 Anonymous: Why always: bull sh.. and other big words. It is a terrible american manner to take always these awful big words.<<< SEE ALEX, HE IS INSULTING THE NATIONHOOD OF AN INDIVIDUAL. AND, I AM NOT AMERICAN, NOR GREEK OR ATHENIAN, I AM CITIZEN OF THE WORLD..
Mon Feb 8 10:57:11 EST 1999
anonymous: Americans have the right to use big words because a) they are the only major superpower; b) Europe and Japan have absolutely no leadership capability; c) they won the Cold War, WWII, and WWI..d) their women are better looking!
Mon Feb 8 11:01:31 EST 1999
anonymous: Thanks a lot! Monica L.
Mon Feb 8 11:04:05 EST 1999
anonymous: You can call me dear. Paula J.
Mon Feb 8 11:10:21 EST 1999
anonymous: Bill Clinton has better taste than the Prince of Wales (or Whales!)
Mon Feb 8 11:48:03 EST 1999
Alex: <<SEE ALEX, HE IS INSULTING THE NATIONHOOD OF AN INDIVIDUAL. AND, I AM NOT AMERICAN, NOR GREEK OR ATHENIAN, I AM CITIZEN OF THE WORLD.. >> how is that,please explain ???? As for the other messages, I refrain from insulting bulls & bears,if you read my posting on "bullshit" correctly,it was NO INSULT,QUITE THE OPPOSITE!
Mon Feb 8 11:51:49 EST 1999
Alexander: <<Such hypocrisy, Alex. I remember the first time Spankee said C Bonds were going to a 40 handle when they were trading at 63, Wally called him an a__hole.. Such hypocrites!!!>> I never called anybody an a****hole and never would,as for SPANKY:the postings(Luv ya Girlz etc.)were insulting and ugly,it was not the 30-40 handle,it was the rest of the message. Why are all you "critics" anonymous?????????
Mon Feb 8 11:55:51 EST 1999
JMC: I never cease to be amazed at how quickly this site degenerates into abuse. Now the Real is beginning to slide, followed by the C-bonds and the IDU's does anyone have a serious view on the bottom of this market.
Mon Feb 8 11:55:52 EST 1999
JMC: I never cease to be amazed at how quickly this site degenerates into abuse. Now the Real is beginning to slide, followed by the C-bonds and the IDU's does anyone have a serious view on the bottom of this market.
Mon Feb 8 12:09:55 EST 1999
anonymous: GLOBEX PRICES AS OF 02/08/99 11:05 AM TRADE DATE: 02/08/99 REAL MAR99 .54580A +33 is that correct????
Mon Feb 8 12:16:36 EST 1999
Fox: Cciano, your point is relevant so let me give give it a try. The major issue is to know if the credit cycle from the Center economies to the peripheral ones is; terminated or temporary halted. The recent Arg. and Mex. issues seems to point to the temporary suspension of the credit cycle. Nevertheless, the entire region depends on the resolution of Brazil's problems, we may all agree on the prescription of these. However, we must also bear in mind that Brazil's greatest recorded recession was 3.0% of GDP (1983) and the one in 1999 will probably be much greater. These imposes a gigantic challenge on the Country's political elite who has the say on the society's acceptance or not on present sacrifice for a future reward. A strong Latam can help the the Global Economy enormously, just to site an example the dividends from Latam are of great value for the European Pension System; which is a fiscal time bomb.
Mon Feb 8 12:16:55 EST 1999
anonymous: what price is C bond trading at now?
Mon Feb 8 12:27:46 EST 1999
Fox: JMC I believe prices will start to be driven by political issues. President Cardoso's acceptance ratings have never been so low and the population still remembers the day he said "...devaluation can only make things worse, by increasing prices". I believe Congressmen opposition and alliance will take this into consideration. So, this leaves us with the worst posible scenario for a trader; having our P/L in hands of politicians. Good Luck to all of us!!!!
Mon Feb 8 13:13:38 EST 1999
Daniel: <<what price is C bond trading at now?>> get BradyNet Pro and you never have to wonder again! But just for you, just this once, at 1pm I have 55.44/55.81. (This is not an offer to buy or sell.)
Mon Feb 8 14:20:22 EST 1999
anonymous: No es correcto criticar a Alex por sus comentarios, el es uno de los pocos participantes que aporta ideas o informacion basados en hechos o en logica, no en emociones o teorias apocalipticas, ademas el siempre procura mantener un tono cordial en todos los intercambios. Las agresiones personales no deben tener cabida en este sitio.
Mon Feb 8 14:29:02 EST 1999
Spadolini: I fully agree with anonymous on Alex, he is the "father" of this site.
Mon Feb 8 14:36:00 EST 1999
Alexander: Father of the site!! Thanks friends,but the father of this site is our WALLY,at least to me!!!....I just like this Emerging Bond Business and since I have no contracts & leverages,no problem with longs AND SHORTs!!!
Mon Feb 8 15:07:01 EST 1999
Cciano: Fox, thank you for your excellent posting on which I agree completely. Nevertheless politicians in last consequence will have to act in order to avoid further desasters. A temporary suspension of credit cycle will give them a terrible fright.
Mon Feb 8 15:17:41 EST 1999
Cciano: Alex, you are very humble. Success has a lot of fathers, failure has none. And since this site is quite succesful, you should accept a part of fathership, won't you? Greetings.
Mon Feb 8 15:25:46 EST 1999
Alexander: ok,but I am still learning.Even after 25yrs.experience!One thing is for sure:NOTHING IS FOR SURE IN THE MARKETS
Mon Feb 8 15:30:16 EST 1999
Alex: Right about Fox,BUT isn't it the politicians who have the most to lose($$$$$$)if something goes wrong in Brazil??? Honi soit qui mal y pense.rgds.
Mon Feb 8 15:45:02 EST 1999
Omar: I agree with Alex, some politicians in Brazil might like to talk populist to get elected or gain some power but understand that they can't stay in power if their country's economy collapses from isolation from the international investment community. Saludos
Mon Feb 8 15:50:32 EST 1999
Fox: Alex, good point concerning the politicians, these guys actually have their wealth in real estate and other R$ assets. It is just that at times, I have a hard time balancing this issue with the fact that President Cardoso has broken with the traditional "developmentism" nature of politicians when he nominated Mr. Arminio Fraga. I think we are going to witness a very nasty fight. (Sorry, could you please translate your last phrase)
Mon Feb 8 15:54:49 EST 1999
Alex: I agree with your findings,but too much fighting doesn't help anyone in BRZ now. my last phrase means: shame on him who thinks bad about! (Shame on my translation too)Please Cciano,HELP!!!!!
Mon Feb 8 16:04:27 EST 1999
anonymous: Give it up. Brazil has a debt problem and two choices: 1) restructue ala Russia; or 2) inflate it away ala Bulgaria. It's that simple.. The tough question is who takes the pain. Brazilians in hihger inflation, or creditors. That is the political debate taking place right now.
Mon Feb 8 16:11:21 EST 1999
anonymous: Who takes the pain ? - holders of reais paper (devaluation) & holders of domestic debt (restructure)
Mon Feb 8 16:24:15 EST 1999
anonymous: no.. choice of real at 3 or real at 3,000... your choice, FHC!!
Mon Feb 8 16:42:57 EST 1999
trawler: I wonder if a lot are not just "whistling past the graveyard" in saying that the politicians have the most to lose. It is reasonable to think that these are the people who had already moved their (liquid)assets overseas and a collapse in the economy will only prevent them (maybe) from becoming richer. And if the exchange did hit 3000/$ they can buy up a lot of cheap assests. I am not sure there are too many altruistic politicians out there until their nests are well feathered.
Mon Feb 8 16:48:16 EST 1999
Fox: Taking into consideration that in 1999, Brazil's sov. external debt service is $ 11bn, of which roughly $ 6.5 bn is Bradys and Euros (mark to market) and the rest multilaterals. Question is: Will Bradys rally after the domestic debt issue is behind us?
Mon Feb 8 17:20:27 EST 1999
Cciano: Sorry Alex, I was off a while. Your transl. should be understood. To Anonymous:<<Give it up!>> I think your analisis is a little too superficial. Technically the alternative at first sight seems logical, but the most important problem for Brazil is to restore investors confidence to regain capital inflows. That's the key. And this cannot be done with neither the one nor the other way of your alternative. The "Pain" in this case is to be assumed by the braz.people who will have to pay the bill by bearing the burden.
Mon Feb 8 17:34:35 EST 1999
anonymous: They need to restore foreign commercial bank confidence, they are bleeding Brazil. The problem now is commercial bank flows, not investor flows. U.S. banks agreed to an informal standstill when the IMF deal was announced but then went on to reduce their exposure by 30%. European banks are cutting, Japanese banks are cutting... It ain't the George Soros's of the world putting pressure on the emerging markets it is the foreign commerical banks.. You guyz are making the same mistake the IMF and U.S. Treasury made in Asia.
Mon Feb 8 17:48:31 EST 1999
Cciano: Yes, you are even more precise.
Mon Feb 8 18:12:35 EST 1999
Cheetah: I am glad to see that Venezuela may "eventually default", Anonymous may have done some homework, maybe even covering his "virtual" short, I don't believe he has the guts for the real thin. Venezuela was up strong at the end of the day....YUB YUB YUBBB !! FYI venezuelans have closer to 100BB in mostly US and European institutions and real estate...
Mon Feb 8 18:44:08 EST 1999
anonymous: taken out legally, of course...
Mon Feb 8 21:06:19 EST 1999
Cheetah: Taken out legally, yes... provenance >>> half and half.
Mon Feb 8 23:12:39 EST 1999
anonymous: Rumors in the Brazilian Market that the government will try to lengthen the maturities on the internal debt by increasing the IOF tax from zero point something to 25% if investors would withdraw funds on government debt maturing in less than a year. ( this would be an ipso facto debt moratorium and we feel that in no way would this happen) There are also more rumors that Malan will leave the central bank. Again our people feel that this is hog wash as Malan has actually gained power with the appointment of Arminio Fraga. <<<<<FROM BANCO BOZANO RESEARCH
Tue Feb 9 01:32:56 EST 1999
anonymous: My experience is that you should NEVER short a stock until it is "seasoned." Shorting, first of all, is much harder than being long. The world is rooting against you when you are shorting. Every banker, broker, TV personality and company official wants to nail you. You are the enemy of capitalism. You are a scourge. Jim Cramer, TheStreet.com<<< Guess explains why you all hate me. But I still, Luv ya, Spanky
Tue Feb 9 02:20:46 EST 1999
anonymous: Spanky, you made "friends" with your style, not with your arguments. dig that.
Tue Feb 9 02:56:24 EST 1999
anonymous: We all have our schtick, Anom.
Tue Feb 9 03:02:22 EST 1999
anonymous: Please, what is a "schtick"?
Tue Feb 9 03:22:43 EST 1999
anonymous: You know, Jerry Seinfeld has his schtick, Spanky has his. Leave the poor guy alone, for goodness sake. He's had a great call on this market.
Tue Feb 9 03:31:49 EST 1999
Alex: <<Guess explains why you all hate me. But I still, Luv ya, Spanky>> 1st.nobody hates you, 2nd.you are not Ralfie?? 3rd.if you think shorting <BRAZC> is good,no problem!You have 18 days for Feb99 to expire.One can translate "shtick" with a kind of stunt.rgds.
Tue Feb 9 03:46:32 EST 1999
anonymous: stunt or stunted?
Tue Feb 9 03:52:36 EST 1999
Alex: <<kind of theatrical presentation>>
Tue Feb 9 09:37:30 EST 1999
JMC: Brazil says they will pay the maturing Minas bonds even if they have to issue new MOF bonds to do it. They presumebly anticipate getting the money out of the region at some stage - any opinions on this? If an agreement between the states and the government is not reached how do you see the bonds and the currency doing?
Tue Feb 9 09:56:56 EST 1999
anonymous: JMC: Bad decision to assume the debt. Exactly what the market feared in Korea -- i.e., the sovereign assuming all the bank debt. Think Brazil can survive allowing the market to work out debt without individual borrowers and creditors. Think this is a negative and very bad example to the rest of Brazilian borrowers. Brazil needs a radical restructuring of its economy and once it begins market will cheer.
Tue Feb 9 10:05:09 EST 1999
jmc: The Bloomberg statement made it clear that the funds would be repatriated from Minas if new treasury bonds were issued but Minas already denies that they have the funds to repay the central government.
Tue Feb 9 10:59:00 EST 1999
Fox: Jmc, This is what I know: a. All Brazilian Sates are oblige to make monhtly installments of their Eurobonds with the MOF, on what is known as the Reserve Fund. b. Minas Gerais has $ 78 mio. in this fund the balance would be taken from Federal tax transfers. Note: In average 60% of States' revenues are comprised by Federal tx transfers. Concerning the currency Feb. seems heavy with Eurobonds, yesterday you had $100 mio of BCN Barclays and $120 mio of Banco Votorantin. Total for the month is about $1.3 bn. I really don't know if Mr. Itamar Franco will finally pay the Eurobond he is probably thinking about it on in on, irony is that the one who cantracted the Euros is a very close political affiliate of him. I think political nerves have calmed down a bit after the meeting between three opposition Governors and Govt. officials. At noon NY time we will have results of today's Treasury auction goes to the market R$ 2.0 bn of NTN-S double last week's size.
Tue Feb 9 14:35:06 EST 1999
anonymous: russian stock is up again today, now since a week. Today also some volume. Keep an eye on russian stock.
Tue Feb 9 14:53:03 EST 1999
anonymous: If you are interested in news of Russia, go to www.russiatoday.com
Tue Feb 9 15:40:02 EST 1999
Trawler: Re- Russian market.Easy to see that the possibility of equity for debt swap and the money that would then be directed at the Russian market is causing some to buy in early.

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