Color of the Market Archive, Page #8
Color of the Market A R C H I V E 

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The Color of the Market has been an online meeting place for people interested in emerging market debt since 1996, and has undergone many changes in that time. We have discovered an old archive of Color of the Market messages, covering 5 months starting in late 1998. For the benefit of both old and new Bradynetters, we present this archive untouched.

Note: Back in these days, the forum software was greatly different than the Color of the Market that we are now accustomed to. Without the requirement of registration, the forum began to attract disrupters who would engage in vulgarities, name-calling, impersonation of users, and other childish hijinks. But if you can wade through the nonsense, some of the comments herein are historic, and prophetic.

Enjoy,
IDEAGlobal/BradyNet Staff

Tue Feb 9 16:10:58 EST 1999
Alexander: [BRAZ C MAR99 55.23 +29] not bad for only bad news... Mr.Fox,you are right,Sir
Tue Feb 9 16:14:50 EST 1999
Alexander: Hi Trawler,besides that the RusStock market is 70%-80% undervalued,IMHO!!!!
Tue Feb 9 16:34:32 EST 1999
Fox: Gentlemen, Today's Brazil Treasury auction amounted to R$ 2.5 bn, this week's redemption is R$ 5.0 bn. But the Treausry holds R$ 40.0 bn, if they put out R$ 5.0 bn in the market the banks would be in a very tight liquidity position. I'dont know what was said during the meeting between 3 rebel governors and three Gov. ministers (including Malan), but both sides made comments directed to reconciliation not more confrontation. This could leave Mr. I. Franco isolated. Do you gentlemen know the FIEX story?
Tue Feb 9 20:03:22 EST 1999
Cheetah: I am sorry gentlemen but the so called Spanky Girl, is loosing money, he has been wrong with his calls on Brazil and not even close on Venezuela, granted there are two weeks left in February, but with the Internet crashing... and the nerves in Brazil... Why aren't our markets CRUMBLING ??? Could it be they are undervalued ??
Tue Feb 9 20:05:14 EST 1999
anonymous: On march 1st... BUY BUY BAY... which is not the same as YAB YUM YUM !!!
Tue Feb 9 20:52:59 EST 1999
anonymous: If the federal government puts up the Minas Grais money, it will definitely scratch Brazil's credibility. How long Brazil can bear the rising cost of rolling over its debts? The government's annual bill paying off its domestic debts rose by 36 billion reais in the past three weeks alone because of the surge in interest rates. About 64 billion reais comes due in the next two months Brazil has been in this position before. In March 1990, the government, struggling to roll over debt on a daily basis, froze about 80 percent of the assets in the nation's banks for 18 months.
Wed Feb 10 02:57:32 EST 1999
Alexander: Hi Cheetah,happens very often that markets do not go where someone thinks they would. So called <SPANKY> is not the first and last to find out.
Wed Feb 10 07:28:28 EST 1999
anonymous: the russian stocks go up again. Lukoil for the second day more than 9% and so do other oil stock. Alex: are we right or are we not right with our optimisme about Russia?
Wed Feb 10 07:51:20 EST 1999
Fox: I gave you gentlemen a wrong piece of information yesterday, Minas has R$ 78 mio (not usd). Sorry. Yes, the Federal Goverment wil put the difference. The Supreme Court has ruled out Mr. I. Franco's request to stop the Federal Goverment from blocking resources form the State of Minas, gives other States the incentive to negotiate. Please, remember about 60% of the States' total revenues comes from Ferderal transfers. What is there to negogiate? The debt restructurig? No.The Kandir Law. In an effort to improve the exchange rate this law reduced the taxes the States received from exportes. It looks like after the devaluation this could be re-negotiated. What do textbooks say, when there is only bad news and prices do not drop?
Wed Feb 10 07:58:04 EST 1999
Fox: RUSSIA, If I recall correctly the most likely scenarios after the August default were: a. Debt repudiation. b. Hyperinflation. c. Desintegration of the Federation. d. All of the above. To Mr. Primakob two comments: 1. Good job. 2. Please hang on .
Wed Feb 10 08:10:08 EST 1999
Alex: Hi friends,we are right about CAREFUL optimism on Russia, but there still is lots of work to do.Hi Fox,good job!!!!
Wed Feb 10 08:27:51 EST 1999
Fox: Anyone knows a site on the web with Turkish fx and interest rates?
Wed Feb 10 11:55:09 EST 1999
BillBrazil: Journal of comerce in Rio states that Mr Rhodes is working on a US$ 20 billion line from private banks to Brazil. This together with the new team (a very good one) in the central bank is causing a market improvement on Brazilian Bradys
Wed Feb 10 13:33:38 EST 1999
anonymous: Banks are cutting and running from Brazil. And, funny thing, this is the same exact rumor we heard in Sept/Oct 98. So I think the rumor is not true. Any time Bill Rhodes travels to Brazil, the press thinks he brings John Reed, and now Sandy Weil's checkbook. Bill Rhodes is only a figure head in Citi.
Wed Feb 10 14:00:00 EST 1999
anonymous: << Banks are cutting and running from Brazil. And, funny thing, this is the same exact rumor we heard in Sept/Oct 98. So I think the rumor is not true. Conclusion then ??????>>
Wed Feb 10 14:25:24 EST 1999
anonymous: Somebody needs to cover shorts or...Spanky is back hiding
Wed Feb 10 14:33:39 EST 1999
anonymous: By definition, a bond can't be in default until the coupon is due. So you bulls have sometime to be fat and jolly and enjoy your dillusions..
Wed Feb 10 14:36:45 EST 1999
Omar: Maybe covering Minas Gerais payment the by Fed.Gov. will be the best for fiscal discipline, if the State can't get any more ourtside financing, and the Fed.Gov. witholds transfers, wouldn't Itamar Franco be forced to cut spending.
Wed Feb 10 14:37:51 EST 1999
anonymous: we shall see,in the meantime Mr.Short for Feb99 has 16 days incl. carnaval,ENJOY !!!!!
Wed Feb 10 14:41:41 EST 1999
Alexander: Itamar Franco lives on press and bad news,when the situation calmes eventually he will be out of the picture rather soon. The will have to wait some years to get any more outside financing.NICE LESSON!!!!
Wed Feb 10 14:43:16 EST 1999
trader: Good point Omar! I hope that this scenario materializes. It is the only way someone with Francos' childish notions of Economics will learn that you can't have your cake and eat it too.
Wed Feb 10 14:46:38 EST 1999
anonymous: How come bulls use names (with ip addresses) and bears hide behind "anonymous" and never reveal their address ???
Wed Feb 10 14:48:51 EST 1999
Omar: Thanks Trader, I hope this will also show other populist politicians toying with the idea of default a little reality lesson. Greetings.
Wed Feb 10 14:50:23 EST 1999
Alex: I have one explaination on that,must be one or 2 pretending to be many.rgds.
Wed Feb 10 14:52:55 EST 1999
anonymous: Because you will hunt me down and shoot me. Bulls don't like to be told goldilocks may be a She-man and that her/his beauty has been an illusion all through out this bubble that is finally being unwound.
Wed Feb 10 14:54:06 EST 1999
anonymous: Russian stocks today: Lukoil + 11.2%, Mosenegro + 11.63%, Unified Energy System + 11.11%, the Reuters composite index was up 7.11%!!!
Wed Feb 10 14:54:53 EST 1999
anonymous: I am Itamar Franco!!
Wed Feb 10 14:56:01 EST 1999
Alex: Hey friend Anonymous,don't worry nobody wants to hunt you down and shoot you,NEVER,NUNCA!! I see you are full of prophecies and theories!! How is your short going???rgds.
Wed Feb 10 14:59:41 EST 1999
Alex: << I am Itamar Franco!! >> SO????
Wed Feb 10 15:21:21 EST 1999
anonymous: My shorts are doing very well. I am short you Alex, that is where my retirement money is booked.
Wed Feb 10 15:24:25 EST 1999
Alex: hähähähähähähä,now you are in the phantasy islands again. You are unable to short my bonds,besides,not even a name... come on,kid!!!!!
Wed Feb 10 15:34:34 EST 1999
Alex: [BRAZ C MAR99 56.30 +107]yes I see,your CBRZ Feb99 SHORT going very well,rgds.
Wed Feb 10 15:41:46 EST 1999
anonymous: Alex, you are a good man.. but emerging markets are only a geek sideshow for me. 2 much money 2 be made elsewhere and if you have noticed, global equities are rolling over. Just kiddin' about shorting you -- your the best and hold this site together. do enjoy the rousing tho.
Wed Feb 10 15:43:56 EST 1999
Alex: thanks friend,but be careful its murder out there...did you see MO today???
Wed Feb 10 15:57:11 EST 1999
anonymous: yeah.. so much for the cheap stocks, ah? things started to feel a bit spooky.. looks like investors may be looking for some spread cushion.. may be explains the strength in spread product -- esp, em bonds. Gotta admit the only thing I like in your market is Russian globals, cheapest asset in the world, even if they restructure 'em. You buy and hold them, you will make at worst in a temp default 30% per annum. Can't find that anywhere else.
Wed Feb 10 16:03:08 EST 1999
Alex: Agree,but don't buy to much at a time,one never knows. Without reason they were pulled down from the 31/33 to the 27/29 levels (RusFed28). I believe they now see how stupid the moratorium was, but its too late now.BRZ has learnt that lesson too,so quick solution of the crisis.Without the Russian events the LatAm crisis would be much worse.
Wed Feb 10 16:11:18 EST 1999
anonymous: Alex, thanks for your insights. are you in the states or offshore?
Wed Feb 10 16:13:34 EST 1999
Alex: I am in The Hague/Netherlands,5 minutes from the cold NorthSea
Wed Feb 10 16:17:05 EST 1999
anonymous: nice! say hi to the dutch mistresses for me..
Wed Feb 10 16:17:14 EST 1999
anonymous: nice! say hi to the dutch mistresses for me..
Wed Feb 10 16:28:14 EST 1999
Alex: do you have any specific??? Dutch mistress??
Wed Feb 10 16:50:04 EST 1999
Fox: Hi, I wonder where our real problems are; Itamar Franco, High Rates, IMF or the G3 current account dynamics? To be short or not to be short; be short only if you think the US will have difficulties fuelling Asian curent account surplus to its shores. Otherwise the technical position will make your P/L extremely difficult, there is really no major/institutional sellers at this prices.
Wed Feb 10 18:17:53 EST 1999
anonymous: Nor institutonal buyers -- and don't just focus on bonds. Focus on the entire capital accounts of these countries. Japan is repatriating capital and the only hope is that they monetize their huge budget deficits (10% of GDP). That is, Japan does what the IMF tells Brazil not to do.
Wed Feb 10 19:26:00 EST 1999
anonymous: Hello Fox - welcome... but let's get something out - are you Fox or Foxy ? Good comments
Wed Feb 10 19:31:44 EST 1999
Cheetah: Gosh, prices are still firm ??? Wasn't the NASDAQ crashing ? Wasn't that a negative article on Chavez in the WSJ ? Isn't Minas Gearaes defaulting ? SPANKY SPANKY only two weeks left... MUY BAY not the same as YAB YUM... Alex so lucky to be so close to .. is it Spingel st. ?
Wed Feb 10 23:03:26 EST 1999
anonymous: Cheetah: you won the race today, but this the marathon. we will see who is smiling at the end of the year. Vennie people suffering massive pain so you can gloat about your bond positions? Don't think that is sustainable? Do you my Cheat-DAH, friend? Greed kills, Cheat-DAH!
Thu Feb 11 01:12:02 EST 1999
anonymous: Alex: u choose the best dutch mistress and say hi for me.
Thu Feb 11 01:44:06 EST 1999
anonymous: You're right Anonymous !!!, this IS A MARATHON NOT A RACE, therefore you look for LONG TERM results, not day to day price fluctuations, so shouldn't we hang on to our EM investments ?
Thu Feb 11 02:11:09 EST 1999
anonymous: No I don't think so, only Russian globals. Think Latin Am headed for some financing trouble. Think you will have negative returns in LatAm this year.
Thu Feb 11 03:23:57 EST 1999
Alex: <<Alex so lucky to be so close to .. is it Spingel st. ?>> Hi Cheetah, the newsmagazine is DER SPIEGEL,also on Internet. What was the difference?The shorts were too sure about themselves,I was always careful!Fact is:everybody pays!!!
Thu Feb 11 06:13:34 EST 1999
Billbrazil: Now the rumors that a extension of credit lines to Brazil up to 20 BI are stronger. They are in a famous insider colunist. Also the Fiex decision will make the Real stronger. I think prices are showing some reason to my arguments
Thu Feb 11 06:19:49 EST 1999
Fox: Hi,...No institutional buyers..., do you Gentlemen know the FIEX story?I have asked this the other day, either you do know and think is irrelevant or Alex is right: I'am Foxy not Fox. BCP securities made an argument the other day that I found very good, it goes like this; Credit will be scarce, the disinflation via fx anchor is over, from now on it will have to be disinflation via fiscal policy. Good point Sirs, take a look in Turkey. BC Brazil team: Mr. Arminio Fraga, Mr. David Gleizer, Mr. Luis F. Figueredo and most likely Mr. E. Garofalo, these Gentlemen would make a dream team in any Prop. Book.Good luck Gentlemen. Anyone interested in the EUR/JPY cross? Anyone knows a site for FX and interest rates for Turkey? Best trading for you all!
Thu Feb 11 07:07:23 EST 1999
Alex: Hi Fox(y),Turkish Bonds I know where,but FX and Interest rates?
Thu Feb 11 08:41:49 EST 1999
Fox: Yes, you might think I'am crazy to look into domestic debt after GKOs and what is going on in Brazil. But I would like to ride the carry trade on Turkish overnight rates. Why? Well, I think it is a good example of disinflation via fiscal not fx anchor. Debt/GDP will be 43% by end of 99 and will reach about 48% by 2000. Additionally it is an OECD country and the capital requirements imposed to banks are a fraction of that of Latins. Risks, who said I will be able to exit on time? Right or wrong, I'am willing to take the election risk and post part of the trade before April 18th, on the conviction that Bulent Ecevit will succeed in forming a new coalition.
Thu Feb 11 09:26:36 EST 1999
Alexander: NO,sorry,misunderstanding,I meant,where on the Internet can we find Turkish FX and Yields???I own some TurkishBonds,top prices and nice yields in $$ and DM.rgds.
Thu Feb 11 11:36:14 EST 1999
Fox: I don't know, I'am looking for a site that has any info. on Turkish capital markets, but unable to find anything yet. You have CBOT(Dresdner)?
Thu Feb 11 11:44:30 EST 1999
Alex: <<CBOT(Dresdner)>> can't help you there either!!
Thu Feb 11 12:23:44 EST 1999
anonymous: SOME THOUGHTS FROM THESTREET.COM: Too paranoid? Give me a break. The bears drive Peterbilts; I have 32-wheeler tracks all over my back from when I have plunged in thinking that the road was all clear. Which is why I am sticking with my buys from the weakness of the other days, but not buying any more.----- Jim Cramer, TheStreet.com
Thu Feb 11 14:20:04 EST 1999
anonymous: Russian shares closed higher today for the forth day in a row. The Reuters composite index was up 9.26% today.
Thu Feb 11 14:31:51 EST 1999
Dyadya Venya: To see current Turkish T-bill rates: On reuters the Istanbul SE pages can show live levels. BBERG has a daily update on NI TURKEY. Remember that all yields are shown as simple annualized YTM, including o/n rates...math gets a little tricky with high o/n simple yields. I think TRL and the t-bills are a remarkable magic carpet ride....good luck and happy landings.
Thu Feb 11 14:42:34 EST 1999
fox: Thanks Dyadya!
Thu Feb 11 15:11:53 EST 1999
anonymous: NEW YORK, Feb 11 (Reuters) - Many bond investors and economists are coming around to the view that Brazil will do everything possible to avoid defaulting on domestic debt, even if that means allowing for higher inflation....Spanky, where are you ?, we miss you...
Thu Feb 11 15:27:58 EST 1999
anonymous: he is probably preparing for his "I told you so aria". it's labour's lost, hopefully.
Thu Feb 11 15:40:23 EST 1999
Alexander: I am fully convinced that the Russian crisis of last autumn made many "heroes" and "populists" think twice about defaulting or threatening with default.Things might have been different had not the world seen a real default situation and what it brings with it. Regards to all!
Thu Feb 11 16:00:07 EST 1999
anonymous: S.R.I.P. -- Spanky Rest in Peace
Thu Feb 11 16:23:59 EST 1999
Alexander: <<BRAZ C..MAR99..57,42..+112>> someone short here??? well,well,well we told you so!!!!!
Thu Feb 11 16:43:56 EST 1999
Fox: You know, there is a possibility that the worst is over for Latam. For the ones who bought congratulations who deserve every Dollar you made. For those who were short; there will always be another day to trade. For all of us, good job, but we better start thinking our next move.
Thu Feb 11 17:18:26 EST 1999
anonymous: Spanky last seen headed for Antwerp.
Thu Feb 11 17:18:53 EST 1999
Alexander: maybe wait some,then buy more RusFed18 and RusFed28, but not too much at a time
Thu Feb 11 17:21:34 EST 1999
anonymous: wrong,he just crossed into Albania! Since everybody wants to leave!
Thu Feb 11 17:27:44 EST 1999
anonymous: Fact is,there were at least 2 Spankies,maybe 3 Spankies at a time. We know one(Ralfie/Germany) the others were on the American continent, seen the time of the postings.
Thu Feb 11 17:33:34 EST 1999
anonymous: 2 Yankies behind the shoulders of 1 Kraut? -Rather remarkable.
Thu Feb 11 17:36:39 EST 1999
anonymous: No,no,these were independent shorts,getting together after a while. One was reasoning more,the other was pure insulting,remember!!!
Thu Feb 11 17:41:19 EST 1999
anonymous: yes, I see the light, thanks.
Thu Feb 11 17:42:47 EST 1999
anonymous: what counts is,we won,they lost!!! The lost partly because they were so sure about themselves.......
Thu Feb 11 17:58:41 EST 1999
anonymous: Girls, why are you slapping yourself on the back? The war is not over? This is a marathon, not a sprint! Us bears will wait for you to get nice and fat again, and then come in and make you puke your bonds. Remember this, it's about making money not being right! I will leave you with the words of the famous American General, "I'll (the bears) be back."
Thu Feb 11 18:04:00 EST 1999
anonymous: <<I'll (the bears) be back.>> thats funny,sweety baby,but before that see your broker because you have a bill to pay,honey! 13days for Feb99 and the carnaval is in between, if you know what the means,darling
Thu Feb 11 18:06:21 EST 1999
anonymous: how much did you lose,ok,lets see,short $1Mln.,20 points lost,hm, $200.000.- gone in 3 weeks? Great! Good trader!
Thu Feb 11 18:07:38 EST 1999
anonymous: I may be wrong. Does that make you happy, or would you rather make money. Off to the next trade!
Thu Feb 11 18:08:19 EST 1999
anonymous: and the money for your operation(Girls) is gone too,thats bad
Thu Feb 11 18:08:36 EST 1999
anonymous: <<it's about making money not being right>> Bravo Spanky. I generally do not agree with your way of writing comments (your insults were unacceptable!). However, Alex and his lame a..es friends are no better than you. Instead of building seriuos discussions on this very very complicated issue, they spend their time being narcisist talking about the monopoly money they made. (personally I don't think they have a penny in the market...) Well I guess I will stick to the other forums where it seems real investor hang. Pele
Thu Feb 11 18:09:44 EST 1999
anonymous: too sure of yourself,that will make you broke again.
Thu Feb 11 18:11:55 EST 1999
anonymous: Pele, do you need help to the door? Investors don't hang the make money. Go count your losses and don't take it out on Alex and gang. They are great guys and provide added value, unlike you! There's the door, now leave!
Thu Feb 11 18:12:37 EST 1999
anonymous: right,Pele/Spanky/Chris/UriV./Samantha/JPC
Thu Feb 11 18:15:32 EST 1999
anonymous: maybe lameass but always 2 fast for U,right!
Thu Feb 11 18:17:24 EST 1999
anonymous: (personally I don't think they have a penny in the market...)who cares what you think,your thinking is over! And the money gone,luv ya anyhow!
Thu Feb 11 18:19:16 EST 1999
Cheetah: Hey Sinnombre its nice to see you have extended from the end of february to the end of the year on your call for ARMAGGEDON... just accept you are way way off spankspank, Veni DCB's @ 63 instead of 40 handle !! I am laughing all the way to the bank !! Because I sold half my spec position today ! to Corazon Partio
Thu Feb 11 18:23:14 EST 1999
anonymous: Cheetah- Make sure you make a deposit for C.A.P. while you're at the Swiss Bank..
Thu Feb 11 18:23:32 EST 1999
Cheetah: pele recognize reality... go to cafe foto and forget your shorts (quite easy there)... enjoy carnival
Thu Feb 11 18:34:24 EST 1999
anonymous: Alex come now, it's not Der Spiegel, it's that nice street by the water, Spingl ?? um um and Fox what gender is Foxy ?
Thu Feb 11 22:36:09 EST 1999
Cheetah: My dearest Spanky Corazon Partio, my friend c.a.p. does not require my help, alas it is you "darling" that needs a deposit to cover your SHORT margin requirements... maybe next week I will sell the rest of my spec Veni position... WHAT IS THERE TO BUY ??? Wally ? CCIANO ? Spanky ??
Fri Feb 12 02:29:45 EST 1999
anonymous: JUST SEVEN years ago, Venezuelan Lt. Col. Hugo Chavez went to prison for an attempted coup in which he nearly assassinated the president of the oldest democracy in South America. The other day, pardoned and recycled as a first-time politician, the 44-year-old former paratrooper beat out a onetime Miss Universe and took office as president of a country sinking into ever deeper distress. The leading question asked about him now is whether he will fulfill his vaguely leftist campaign promises and destabilize the economy, or renege and destabilize his political base. -- Today's Washington Post
Fri Feb 12 03:02:29 EST 1999
Alex: <<Alex come now, it's not Der Spiegel, it's that nice street by the water, Spingl ??>> I thought you were referring to the newsmagazine,in which country in the water???
Fri Feb 12 07:58:51 EST 1999
Fox: Wow, Gentlemen, Gentlemen. I am new to this site and must say a bit surprised to the treatment you give each other.You are probably very old friends. I was out taking care of my crosses, what is out there to buy or do? take a good look at he EUR/JPY, the results of today's BoJ meeting in my opinion will make the JPY stronger, we must understand what type of scenario this will take us. Going short or long has the same objective, like someone said , making money. Is just that I believe going short is harder due to the technical position, which means if you are right that the market should go down for a period of time, you can't realized your call due to an external factor of fundamentals. Now, concerning Fox , Genders and Foxy, lets look what the dictionary says: Fox: Wild animal of the dog family preserved in Britain for hunting, and proverbial for its cunning. Foxy: adj. crafty; crafty-looking. My gender: Ugly male. The other day someone suggested to the annonymous to get names, it would be much easier to follow our discussions if you all did. Concerning the site, I think is great you all did a marvelous job creating it.
Fri Feb 12 08:10:31 EST 1999
Fox: Fox, Foxy and gender: Dictionary definitons: Fox: Wild animal of the dog family, preserved in Britain for hunting, and proverbial for its cunning. Foxy: adj. crafty; crafty looking. My gender: Old ugly male. The other day someone suggested to the annonymous to get names, it really would make our disccussions eadier to follow if you all did. Concerning the site I think is a great idea, and I congratulate all of you who created and work to improve it.
Fri Feb 12 08:18:59 EST 1999
Fox: Long, Short and making money. True it is not a matter of being right or wrong, it is a matter of making money. I particularly dont like to short bradies, because, I am very concerned that technical position tends to run against shorts, after all it is not such a big market. Nevertheless, I admired those participants who make money this way. What is out there to buy or do? Take a look to the EUR/JPY cross, I believe that today's BoJ decision will make the JPY stronger and we must understand what type of world this is, and what are the implications for the rest of the financial assets.
Fri Feb 12 08:29:54 EST 1999
Cheetah: Fox I don't like to think that deaply, I just love double digit returns on sov's and good qquality latin corporates. Maybe it's an easy trade to put on... but then needs constant monitoring, coudn't go to St. Barths, Mustique or Vail and enjoy... or is it Springel st. around the Canal um um, Alex are you realy near Amsterdam ?
Fri Feb 12 08:31:54 EST 1999
Cheetah: On those shrorts - by their commentary, that was extremely negative when Brazil devalued, they NEVER covered (if they were ever short at all)
Fri Feb 12 09:49:47 EST 1999
Alexander: Hi Cheetah,not Amsterdam,THE HAGUE! The shorts were too sure of themselves, while we were afraid,reminds me of David vs.Goliath,WE WON!!!
Fri Feb 12 10:14:13 EST 1999
anonymous: forget all your shorts and longs, go and buy the CD of the "Sambas of the Enredo 99", listen to it over the weekend and agree with me: Brazil is the greatest country in the world and Rio the absolut greatest place. Bom Carneval to everybody.
Fri Feb 12 10:15:42 EST 1999
Alex: Bom Carneval to everybody. from me too!!!
Fri Feb 12 10:37:03 EST 1999
anonymous: you must go to amsterdam for some fun
Fri Feb 12 10:53:32 EST 1999
anonymous: Thank you BradyNet for the news stories posted on the left side corner. of this forum. I wish people would discuss the events that are reported there rather than keep the current discussions on who is right or wrong. Who cares anyway ? No batuque, no pagode, Avante Mangueira! Teu cenário é uma beleza, Tua voz uma bandeira! Pele. (BTW no relation to Spanky !!)
Fri Feb 12 10:54:46 EST 1999
anonymous: <<you must go to amsterdam for some fun>> I don't like to frequent the poor Dominicanas and Colombianas,eso pura explotacion de las poveres mujeres,NOT FOR ME!!!
Fri Feb 12 10:54:47 EST 1999
anonymous: <<you must go to amsterdam for some fun>> I don't like to frequent the poor Dominicanas and Colombianas,eso pura explotacion de las poveres mujeres,NOT FOR ME!!!
Fri Feb 12 10:57:02 EST 1999
Alex: <<<No batuque, no pagode, Avante Mangueira! Teu cenário é uma beleza, Tua voz uma bandeira! Pele. (BTW no relation to Spanky !!)>>> a little fighting does not harm. happy carnaval to you.
Fri Feb 12 11:00:13 EST 1999
anonymous: The real is weak due to debt repayments , as companies need to buy dollars to pay off maturing debt to foreign lenders ABN Amro Mercantil Thursday paid off $100 million and Banco Votorantim $120 million. Good signs!
Fri Feb 12 12:24:01 EST 1999
anonymous: "I don't like to think that deeply" - cheetah I'm going to scatter your brain bits to the seagulls at my beachfront apartment in the Grenadines. Marta
Fri Feb 12 12:40:34 EST 1999
anonymous: welcome on the site,Marta,since when do you know Cheetah??
Fri Feb 12 13:27:03 EST 1999
anonymous: Nervous yet girls?
Fri Feb 12 13:43:54 EST 1999
anonymous: CHEAT-dah! Ecuador first, Venezuela second! Have a nice day! :->
Fri Feb 12 13:46:48 EST 1999
anonymous: <<Nervous yet girls?>> hey darling, how ya doin'? paid the broker for the loss,sweety? Otherwise they come for you ,luv ya,Ralfie/Spanky/UriV./JPC & Co.
Fri Feb 12 13:48:44 EST 1999
anonymous: <<CHEAT-dah! Ecuador first, Venezuela second! Have a nice day!>> no,honey,you are gone not us,how much did you lose??
Fri Feb 12 13:56:24 EST 1999
anonymous: Der Kerl ist sooooooooo blööööööööööd,erstens loser,zweitens dumm,drittens frech.Armes Königswinter!
Fri Feb 12 14:01:38 EST 1999
Fox: Helloooo! I had some crosses to sort out, but, for what I see you all have been rather active. Is Pele, isn't? and Marta? Well, nice to hear from you, but do this old man a favor; before cliking "post your comment" fill in the name/space, much obliged. Now, to business, Gentlemen, Marta, what is the bloody volatility of the C's? Is it not time for the market to take a rest? Oh Cheetah, did I tell you I bought a Dictionary?, look, Cheetah:kind of leopard that can be trained to hunt deer. About pagode, trio eletrico, and other good things of life, NO way we are all very far from Mr. G. Soros, let him "pular" in Salvador we are busy trying to make money. About discussing the news on the left side, good point lets do that. Last but not least, Alexander you should be the one responsible to welcome the new participants, (you could start by me). Ah, almost forgot, Amsterdam in Spring, superb, just see time go by at the Jaren Terrace.
Fri Feb 12 14:05:36 EST 1999
anonymous: Fox: Watch out the bloodhounds are not far behind!
Fri Feb 12 14:10:13 EST 1999
Alexander: Hi Fox,I welcomed you 3days ago,but if you like a "welcome Fox" each day,WELCOME FOX!
Fri Feb 12 14:17:02 EST 1999
anonymous: Hey Germans, reel in your Finance Minister Oscar L... He's gonna blow up the Euro if he's not careful and they hurt Cheetah's bond positions!
Fri Feb 12 14:18:42 EST 1999
anonymous: Naw,Oskar's a good boy,don't forget his surname...
Fri Feb 12 14:20:26 EST 1999
Fox: Yes Alex, I like that. Annonymous (get a name shorter than anno...), true bloodhounds are close, I think they are showing on the left side news. BoJ, acutally dissapointed all those who thought thy will monetize because Rubin said so. The bloodhound is a strong JPY, a lot of pain will have to come before they do monetise. Oh Alex did I tell you I liked that Welcome thing? You go to the Jarren Terrace?
Fri Feb 12 14:22:57 EST 1999
Alexander: Hi Fox,sorry,no time for hanging on terraces in A'dam. Now you are a senior BradyNet perticipant,no more welcomes necessary :-))
Fri Feb 12 14:45:13 EST 1999
Fox: Seriuosly now, this JPY thing is a big bloodhound. The story goes like this: JAPAN DEFLATIONARY CICLE: Economic contraction = rising output gap = BOP surplus = JPY appreciation = Yawning BOP in the US = rising interest rates or lower USD or both. The JPY is 114.28 after a interest rate cut and the long bond is 5.43. Conclusion get rid of the interest rate risk of bradies!! Until Japan monetizes we are in a strong JPY world, lousy scenario for dollar base Assets.
Fri Feb 12 15:37:39 EST 1999
Alex: The $ was stronger vs.EURO last week,its hard to foresee the future and especially the markets.I have grave doubts on the "when this happens then that must follow etc etc"has been proven wrong lots of times,lets simply wait and see.greetings
Fri Feb 12 16:11:53 EST 1999
anonymous: I think there was an overhang of long dollars. They booked after the Bank of Japan shaved 10 basis points off already-skimpy money market rates got squeezed, with the lack of action on long-term rates seen as a cop out.
Fri Feb 12 16:43:50 EST 1999
anonymous: Hey Alex, Am I velkome here to? Luv ya, Spanklin D.
Fri Feb 12 16:48:23 EST 1999
anonymous: how much?
Fri Feb 12 19:44:48 EST 1999
Cheetah: Please do not continue with the Veni default scenario, you insult yourself SINNOMBRE. Go back to some of my old postings and do your math.... Marta, Martica, Martiquita in which Grenadine will we join our thoughts ??? I will be close this weekend... Alex no dominicanas or colombinas at yum yum (or is it yab yab) on Springl St...
Fri Feb 12 19:53:44 EST 1999
Cheetah: Let's see, another day of Nasdaq crushing AND UST selloff, Japan wants to stimulate and and our bonds and equities performed VERY WELL !!! Can it be, can it be - VALUE !! VALUE !! Just do it:::: BUY BUY BUYYYYYYYY!!!!!!!!!!!
Fri Feb 12 22:16:47 EST 1999
anonymous: Cheat-DAH! Never forget he longest and deepest river in the emerging markets is de-NILE!!
Fri Feb 12 22:17:42 EST 1999
anonymous: Fasten your seatbelts. U.S. headed south in a big way!
Sat Feb 13 03:12:09 EST 1999
anonymous: join the carnival and forget about bonds for some days. the quality of comments should improve afterwards. El Payaso.
Sat Feb 13 03:15:50 EST 1999
Alexander: << Hey Alex, Am I velkome here to? Luv ya, Spanklin D.>> proof of 2nd Spanky. Ralf does not make so many mistakes in English
Sat Feb 13 03:17:48 EST 1999
Alexander: <<our bonds and equities performed VERY WELL !!! Can it be, can it be - VALUE !! VALUE !!>> What can I say, Cheetah is right!!!!!!!!
Sat Feb 13 03:55:58 EST 1999
anonymous: Did anybody see the note from Reuters re:Ecuador ?..."Ecuador must pay $148.2 billion in interest on Brady bonds on February 28 and another $31 million at the end of March, according to Lehman Brothers..." 148.2 BILLION !!!!!!, I believe Spanky and Co. got jobs with Reuters. PS. I know what's Spanky's Spanish name is now: EL PAYASO.
Sat Feb 13 04:26:55 EST 1999
anonymous: <<Ecuador must pay $148.2 billion in interest on Brady bonds on February 28 and another..>> should read MILLIONS,not billions
Sat Feb 13 04:47:35 EST 1999
anonymous: Don't offend me. I've got nothing to do with this twisted character. Just enjoy carnival and write better comments ever after. El Payaso.
Sat Feb 13 05:08:03 EST 1999
Alexander: <<<Don't offend me. I've got nothing to do with this twisted character. Just enjoy carnival and write better comments ever after. El Payaso. >>> Don't worry,friend, you make no grammar mistakes, while SPANKY is almost illiterate! :-)) :-))
Sat Feb 13 08:37:59 EST 1999
wally: reporting back for duty. it was refreshing and surprising to read proper comments without too much bull___ and too many insults.
Sat Feb 13 08:50:50 EST 1999
Alexander: hey wally,welcome back,BS and insults reduced to a minimum
Sat Feb 13 14:00:26 EST 1999
anonymous: Wally, Nice to have you back. While you were out we actually stabilized and rallied a bit. So I guess we are going lower now that your back. Luv ya Waldo, Spank me D.
Sat Feb 13 15:48:23 EST 1999
anonymous: Oh shit, wenn man vom Teufel spricht... (Haumichblau)
Sat Feb 13 16:37:59 EST 1999
Omar: Glad to have you back Wally, comments much better now even if we still have one of the "spankies" now claiming that your return will bring the market down !!!.I guess the Y2K and all other doomsday scenarios aren't working vey well :=). Saludos
Sat Feb 13 16:42:31 EST 1999
Alexander: << Luv ya Waldo, Spank me D.>> das war der sogenannte echte SPANKY,man gewöhnt sich an die Jungs! Der mit den engl.Grammatikfehlern ist der schlauste :-)) :-))
Sun Feb 14 00:27:27 EST 1999
wally: although it this comment does not really belong here i can't hold back. it is a fact since some years, that whenever i am going on a holiday we had small and big rallies and a downward correction when i came back. sorry, but for once this 'spanky' is right. let's see what will happen next week.
Sun Feb 14 03:53:31 EST 1999
Alexander: downward correction in September98? Very very nicely said,To me this thing looked like a crash!Repetition? Unlikely in that magnitude IMHO,rgds.to all
Sun Feb 14 12:33:10 EST 1999
anonymous: Wally, I must say, I do like you, my friend. Even though you have insulted me, you know I was right 90% of the time. And for Alex, we are only half way through Feb.. I maintain a sharp downward draft in Brazil is coming very soon that should cause C bonds to trade down 20 points and then back up to around 48. Remember, Alex it ain't over until the fat "Dutch" girl sings!
Sun Feb 14 12:38:13 EST 1999
anonymous: Spank me, tender; spank the C; the rivets are popping and the bulls are still filled with glee; i feel sorry for you fam-i-lee!!
Sun Feb 14 12:41:56 EST 1999
anonymous: 02-14-99 wally: (152.163.205.81) although it this comment does not really belong here i can't hold back. it is a fact since some years,<< WALLY, THAT PROVES IT!! THE MARKETS CIRCULATE AROUND WALLY!! YOURS FOREVER, GALLIEO
Sun Feb 14 12:50:24 EST 1999
Alexander: Well,unlike you,I always said everything is possible in the markets. Just keep your short position, and lets all wait and see,right?? You have 10 business days,and happy carnaval in between, enjoy Anonym!! btw.don't know any fat Dutch ladies,should I??
Sun Feb 14 12:52:11 EST 1999
anonymous: <<< i feel sorry for you fam-i-lee!! >>> thanks, but really not necessary,we did nicely,how did you???
Sun Feb 14 13:01:19 EST 1999
Marcus Aurelius: sei in deinem Tun nicht nachlaessig, in deinen Reden nicht verworren, in deinen Vorstellungen nicht zerstreut; lass deine Seele niemals sich verengen oder leidenschaftlich aufwallen oder in deinem Leben dich von Geschaeften voellig mit Beschlag belegen.
Sun Feb 14 13:04:28 EST 1999
Alex: Hallo Marco,für mich ist das ein Hobby,ich hab andere Geschäfte, der Rest stimmt! Pass im März etwas auf mit wem Du Dich umgibst! Frag den Julius..
Sun Feb 14 23:15:53 EST 1999
anonymous: Let's think about this scenario: Yeltsin wakes up one morning and decides to fire Primakov (at Berezovsky request). What next?
Mon Feb 15 01:54:55 EST 1999
anonymous: http://www.nytimes.com/library/world/global/021599global-econ.html
Mon Feb 15 04:07:19 EST 1999
anonymous: What next? -You have to wait which of the dogs fighting under the Kremlin's carpets will have the overhand. (W. Churchill) rgds Spadolini
Mon Feb 15 04:56:29 EST 1999
Alexander: this might help in the meantime: http://www.russiatoday.com/
Mon Feb 15 05:03:42 EST 1999
Doomsayer: <<02-12-99 Anonymous: Fasten your seatbelts. U.S. headed south in a big way!>> Shhhhhhhhhhh! Keep it down! It's like in the cartoons... the the Coyote walks 40 feet from the edge of the cliff, walking on thin air... he only falls once he looks down!
Mon Feb 15 06:49:00 EST 1999
Fox: To state that the EMG. MKTS. can dropp it is really a tautological argument, volatility of the Bonds is high enough to make them go Noth/South quite dramatically. The important issue is to know what to do in the next correction, Buy or Sell? Well, this depends on what induced the price movement; a domestic development or an external market event, Dow, JPY etc... In my mind a domestic development presents a buying opportunity. An external event can present further analysis of the consequences for the global scenario. Of course, the US stock market can go South!, the big issue is by how much and in what period of time. This will differentiate a correction from a systemic risk in the Asset markets.
Mon Feb 15 09:35:51 EST 1999
anonymous: Alexander, you are right to give every once in a while the web site of Russia Today. It is, at least for the moment, much more interesting than all the different brady-net-sites.
Mon Feb 15 09:53:13 EST 1999
Alexander: Well,the left side of this page is very interesting to me,I don't know but BradyNet makes a great effort to have the latest news on EM markets.Russia Today is a general site,btw.do you know this one: http://www.brama.com/eastern-economist/index.html
Mon Feb 15 17:52:46 EST 1999
anonymous: Itamar Franco & Co. should learn big from their Ecuadorian neighbors: "I trust that the Finance minister's resignation will not affect our relations with IMF," Central Bank chief Luis Jacome told reporters. "Ecuador must make all efforts to reach a deal with the IMF."
Tue Feb 16 00:39:18 EST 1999
anonymous: Russia supportive of Kosovo talks. What is the quid pro quo?
Tue Feb 16 01:14:19 EST 1999
wally: quid=support / quo=washington puts little pressure on the imf.
Tue Feb 16 02:53:59 EST 1999
anonymous: thanks, wally.. how is Russia bid this morning? 18's, o7's. and 28's?
Tue Feb 16 04:15:55 EST 1999
anonymous: Yes, Wally. I think the State Department leaning heavy on Treasury to ease up on Russia. Russia finally forming a government and sending out strong signals that if you want Russia to stay in the West, must help out. Note arm sales to Iraq, etc. Back to Kissinger's "linkage theory" of detente. Check out today's NY Times on Rubin and Summers. Nasty, nasty, nasty!! These boyz gonna get the blame for the negative ramifications to U.S. foreign policy. One good thing about Russia after this is all over -- pretty much debt free and plenty of capacity to pay globals. Hope U.S. and Euroland can find it within themselves to help Russia people in need. Rubin and Summers say, "let 'em eat, cake". Clinton better than that.. now you gotta lobby the Germans and other Euros...
Tue Feb 16 12:31:19 EST 1999
anonymous: is there any liquidity in ecuador brady par? what is current price anybody?
Tue Feb 16 13:10:11 EST 1999
anonymous: ABN AMRO bank in NY is quoting 40.75 41.50 at 1pm NYT
Tue Feb 16 14:40:49 EST 1999
anonymous: I have my own theory about Russia and its debt, the IMF, the Americans, the Europeans a.s.o.: The Russian do not want nor need money. They have it. They are a people of peasants, and peasants always cry that they do not have nothing of anything, but in reality they have, only nobody knows where, but they do. In fact, in all this game they play since august, it is not the IMF or the Americans or the Europeans who check what the Russians are worth, but the Russians who check what the Americans, the Europeans, the IMF and the World Bank are worth. Look: In Indonesia, in Thailand, in Brazil: in a few weeks or even days all was checked by the IMF and the money was given. In Russia, they talk and talk and talk, make one memorandum after the other, and then they come again together and talk and talk and talk. The same with the food-aid. Do the Russian need the European pork saussages or do the European need to sell them? Look at the problem once from this side and many things might become clear at once....
Tue Feb 16 15:05:24 EST 1999
anonymous: So, what's your point Anonymous ?
Tue Feb 16 15:43:07 EST 1999
anonymous: Which policy based on this theory do you propose the foolish USA/EU/G7/IMF/WB regarding Russia? Regards Silvio
Tue Feb 16 15:43:39 EST 1999
anonymous: His point is that they do not need any money and everything is a big misunderstanding,maybe we should ask Russia for some $$$$$.
Tue Feb 16 15:45:57 EST 1999
anonymous: We read it,his point is the Russians do not need any money.Its all a big misunderstanding.How could we be so stupid!!
Tue Feb 16 16:06:10 EST 1999
anonymous: o.k., Al(l)bright now!
Tue Feb 16 16:06:50 EST 1999
anonymous: <<<BRAZ C .. MAR99.. 59.25.. +177>>> luv ya Shorty!
Tue Feb 16 16:09:58 EST 1999
anonymous: Anom: Wrong! Wrong! Wrong!... The Russian people have been ripped off by the new capitalists that drank and partied the inflows a way and then hid out in the swiss banks.. You can't even analyze the situation correctly.. Russia a different case than Brazil and others.. There was no government in Russia, just a bunch of thieves fed by Wall Street bankers.. Funny how Chernomyrdan is worth $2-3 Bn.. So I disagree with you. Primikov is doing what is right for Russia and will pay the Globals.. hearing he is actually involved in day to day IMF negotiations.. Read today's NY Times and you will lean somthing..
Tue Feb 16 16:11:07 EST 1999
anonymous: My fellow Anonymous has a point, Emerging NEITHER NEED NOR WANT any of your money, they won't pay instead they'll buy GOLD !!! Luv ya Spanky wannabe.
Tue Feb 16 16:36:19 EST 1999
anonymous: <<they won't pay instead they'll buy GOLD !!! Luv ya Spanky>> buy Gold? Right,with what,camel.....??
Tue Feb 16 17:01:11 EST 1999
anonymous: are you the konigswinter think tanker again, who likes markets tanking so much? or are you his american clon? rgds. Silvio
Tue Feb 16 17:08:41 EST 1999
anonymous: ola Silvio,GOOD QUESTION,rgds.Frank
Tue Feb 16 18:05:07 EST 1999
anonymous: There is only one true Spanky.. and He is never WRONG!!!
Tue Feb 16 18:11:06 EST 1999
anonymous: to be frank, you should challenge Pope Paul II. rgds. silvio
Tue Feb 16 18:21:39 EST 1999
anonymous: we located already 2 Spankies,one Spankie alias Ralfie/ChrisChamp/ JPC/UriV./fake Pele and the other does have 2 big problems,1.Feb99 short is over in 8 workdays and 2.english writing not easy
Tue Feb 16 18:28:28 EST 1999
anonymous: Ralfie the think tanker, why does he tolerate other guys using his, say, brandname? do you think he commands latin at least? rgds. silvio
Tue Feb 16 21:40:12 EST 1999
Cheetah: Sorry, but Spankies have been wrong on ALL their calls.
Tue Feb 16 21:43:09 EST 1999
anonymous: Value ! Value ! Value ! start Buying the corporates !!!! BUY BUY BUYYYYYYYYYY
Wed Feb 17 02:03:17 EST 1999
wally: i read a lot of boring nonsense again.
Wed Feb 17 02:41:40 EST 1999
anonymous: Wally, How is Russia opening?
Wed Feb 17 03:30:44 EST 1999
wally: no deals of russians yet. london is opening in 30 minutes.
Wed Feb 17 07:27:56 EST 1999
Fox: Hi, I'am back from the crosses and taking care of my injuries. Bradies, well, what do we know: POSITIVES: 1. The chances of an US current account problem seems less likely. 2. Don't know if Japan's remonetization is for real, but we will think it is for the next month or so. Until fiscal year ends in March, thus more JPY weakeness being interpreted as an effort to resuscitate domestic demand. The world looks better. 3. Many people surprised that Brazil did not default domestic debt. Give it up it won't, in any manner that would affect external debt. NEGATIVES: 1. The publicity given to the Soros/Fraga/Krugman, is in the first page of most brazilian newspapers. Conclision: Buy on dips induced by domestic driven uncertainties. I wellcome more negatives.
Wed Feb 17 07:31:01 EST 1999
Alexander: If some of the friends are bored: http://www.brama.com/eastern-economist/index.html http://www.russiatoday.com/ some RusFed: http://www.berlinerboerse.de/KURSINFO/ANL_FV/FF0025.html http://www.berlinerboerse.de/KURSINFO/ANL_FV/FF0046.html rgds.
Wed Feb 17 07:59:26 EST 1999
Fox: Memory lane: Three carnivals ago a Brazilian Central Bank President was accused of giving hints of the March 95 devaluation to a Brazilian Banker. The President of CB had to leave shortly after. Questions: 1. Name of the President of the Central Bank? 2. Name of the Brazilian Banker? 3. Name of the Brazilian Bank?
Wed Feb 17 08:49:50 EST 1999
Paco: I agree with Fox. Everybody and their mother is underweight Brazil... Regarding others, most of the street is very flat everybody is brokering so any demand even if small goes into prices.
Wed Feb 17 09:04:37 EST 1999
MexCom: The Peso closed at 9.90 per dollar Tuesday (February 16) to its best level of the year. It was aggressively bid up by international investors wanting to buy cetes. The dollar was internationally strong. A change in Japanese monetary policy weakened the Yen. Interest rates declined sharply from aggressive bidding at the weekly cetes auction with the short-term maturities declining sharper than the long-term notes for the first time in five weeks. The 28-day notes yielded 27.00 percent (down 3.39 percent from last week) and the 91-day notes yielded 27.7 percent (down 2.04 percent from last week.) This is the first time in four weeks that the 28-day note yielded less than the 91-day note. Interest rates are now at their lowest level of the year and the lowest since August 1998 during the first wave of the Brazilian "Samba" effect that rippled from currency devaluation in Russia. The State visit of President Clinton to Mexico focused some additional favorable attention to Mexico. Assurance for rectification was indicated during his visit. The Bank of Mexico now feels confident that the peso has sufficiently stabilized and in fact may now start to feel its too strong. They have started to loosen monetary policy. Last week a sharp decline in interest rates was predicted. A rush of investors wanted to lock in these high yields before they drop further. This is viewed as a temporary rush into the peso. And, the strong financial rally in Mexico may continue a bit longer. As long as the Brazilian "Samba" effect diminishes (it is a non-factor so far this week because of Carnival) the Mexican peso may continue to rally because there is much room for interest rates to decline further. Many bidders were disappointed in not being able to buy cetes this week. The decline in interest rates will greatly help the economy, lower inflation and may soon start to allow businesses to expand and hire additional employees.
Wed Feb 17 09:05:27 EST 1999
MexCom: The Peso closed at 9.90 per dollar Tuesday (February 16) to its best level of the year. It was aggressively bid up by international investors wanting to buy cetes. Interest rates declined sharply from aggressive bidding at the weekly cetes auction with the short-term maturities declining sharper than the long-term notes for the first time in five weeks. The 28-day notes yielded 27.00 percent (down 3.39 percent from last week) and the 91-day notes yielded 27.7 percent (down 2.04 percent from last week.) This is the first time in four weeks that the 28-day note yielded less than the 91-day note. Interest rates are now at their lowest level of the year and the lowest since August 1998 during the first wave of the Brazilian "Samba" effect that rippled from currency devaluation in Russia. The State visit of President Clinton to Mexico focused some additional favorable attention to Mexico. Assurance for rectification was indicated during his visit. The Bank of Mexico now feels confident that the peso has sufficiently stabilized and in fact may now start to feel its too strong. They have started to loosen monetary policy. Last week a sharp decline in interest rates was predicted. A rush of investors wanted to lock in these high yields before they drop further. This is viewed as a temporary rush into the peso. And, the strong financial rally in Mexico may continue a bit longer. As long as the Brazilian "Samba" effect diminishes (it is a non-factor so far this week because of Carnival) the Mexican peso may continue to rally because there is much room for interest rates to decline further. Many bidders were disappointed in not being able to buy cetes this week. The decline in interest rates will greatly help the economy, lower inflation and may soon start to allow businesses to expand and hire additional employees.
Wed Feb 17 09:06:32 EST 1999
MexCom: The Peso closed at 9.90 per dollar Tuesday (February 16) to its best level of the year. It was aggressively bid up by international investors wanting to buy cetes. Interest rates declined sharply from aggressive bidding. This is the first time in four weeks that the 28-day note yielded less than the 91-day note. Interest rates are now at their lowest level of the year and the lowest since August 1998 during the first wave of the Brazilian "Samba" effect that rippled from currency devaluation in Russia. The State visit of President Clinton to Mexico focused some additional favorable attention to Mexico. Assurance for rectification was indicated during his visit. The Bank of Mexico now feels confident that the peso has sufficiently stabilized and in fact may now start to feel its too strong. They have started to loosen monetary policy. Last week a sharp decline in interest rates was predicted. A rush of investors wanted to lock in these high yields before they drop further. This is viewed as a temporary rush into the peso. And, the strong financial rally in Mexico may continue a bit longer. As long as the Brazilian "Samba" effect diminishes (it is a non-factor so far this week because of Carnival) the Mexican peso may continue to rally because there is much room for interest rates to decline further. Many bidders were disappointed in not being able to buy cetes this week. The decline in interest rates will greatly help the economy, lower inflation and may soon start to allow businesses to expand and hire additional employees.
Wed Feb 17 09:07:02 EST 1999
MexCom: The Peso closed at 9.90 per dollar Tuesday (February 16) to its best level of the year. It was aggressively bid up by international investors wanting to buy cetes. Interest rates declined sharply from aggressive bidding. This is the first time in four weeks that the 28-day note yielded less than the 91-day note. Interest rates are now at their lowest level of the year and the lowest since August 1998 during the first wave of the Brazilian "Samba" effect that rippled from currency devaluation in Russia. The Bank of Mexico now feels confident that the peso has sufficiently stabilized and in fact may now start to feel its too strong. They have started to loosen monetary policy. Last week a sharp decline in interest rates was predicted. A rush of investors wanted to lock in these high yields before they drop further. This is viewed as a temporary rush into the peso. And, the strong financial rally in Mexico may continue a bit longer. As long as the Brazilian "Samba" effect diminishes (it is a non-factor so far this week because of Carnival) the Mexican peso may continue to rally because there is much room for interest rates to decline further. Many bidders were disappointed in not being able to buy cetes this week. The decline in interest rates will greatly help the economy, lower inflation and may soon start to allow businesses to expand and hire additional employees.
Wed Feb 17 09:07:33 EST 1999
MexCom: The Peso closed at 9.90 per dollar Tuesday (February 16) to its best level of the year. It was aggressively bid up by international investors wanting to buy cetes. Interest rates declined sharply from aggressive bidding. This is the first time in four weeks that the 28-day note yielded less than the 91-day note. Interest rates are now at their lowest level of the year and the lowest since August 1998 during the first wave of the Brazilian "Samba" effect that rippled from currency devaluation in Russia. The Bank of Mexico now feels confident that the peso has sufficiently stabilized and in fact may now start to feel its too strong. They have started to loosen monetary policy. Last week a sharp decline in interest rates was predicted. A rush of investors wanted to lock in these high yields before they drop further. This is viewed as a temporary rush into the peso. And, the strong financial rally in Mexico may continue a bit longer.
Wed Feb 17 09:34:33 EST 1999
Paco: MexCom: As you seem to be an fx trader, Any coments on the Real? Thanks
Wed Feb 17 09:56:36 EST 1999
Fox: It is really frustating to look at the spreads between Poland and Mexico. I have tried to understand why Mexico has traded so wider in respect to Poland and I always come up with these questions: 1. Is Poland more intregated to Euroland than Mexico to NAFTA? 2. Is Poland's current account smaller than Mexico's? 3. Has Poland a better structural reform than Mexico? ; Social Security Reform? 4. Has Mexico an older population than Poland? 5. Has Poland a better inflation record than Mexico? After answering these questions I get more frustrated. The Peso devalue enormuosly in '98 and Mexican policy makers took a predictible policy path like any country of OECD would off, Peso has a sole problem: Oil, wish that thing would stop coming down.
Wed Feb 17 10:04:23 EST 1999
optimist: Fox, have you noticed Poland has investment grade rating? For silly reasons that matters for many investors with credit limits...

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